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Economic Newsletter on Kazakhstan |September 2019

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Economic Newsletter on Kazakhstan |September 2019 Economic Newsletter on Kazakhstan |September 2019 CONTENTS MACRO-ECONOMICS & FINANCE ......................................................................................2 ENERGY & NATURAL RESOURCES ......................................................................................4 TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATIONS...................................................................................8 AGRICULTURE ....................................................................................................................9 EXHIBITIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN (October 2019)............................................................... 13 CONTACTS ...................................................................................................................... 14 The Economic Section of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Kazakhstan intends to distribute this newsletter as widely as possible among Dutch institutions, companies and persons from the Netherlands. The newsletter summarises economic news from various Kazakhstani and foreign publications and aims to provide accurate information. However, the Embassy cannot be held responsible for any mistakes or omissions in the bulletin. ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER, September 2019 Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands MACRO-ECONOMICS & FINANCE Economy of Kazakhstan grows by 4.3% since the beginning of the year In August 2019, the economy of Kazakhstan remained stable. This was announced at a government meeting by the Minister of National Economy, Ruslan Dalenov. “Over 8 months, GDP growth accelerated to 4.3%. Against this background, all international rating agencies confirmed the sovereign credit rating of Kazakhstan at the level of investment attractiveness. Moody's improved its outlook from stable to positive,” the minister said. The main factors of economic growth were investment activity and stable inflation. Thus, investment growth amounted to 10.7%. The largest increase was noted in agriculture by 57.1%, construction by 30.9%, trade by 20.4%, and industry by 17.7%. “For the third month in a row, inflation has remained low at 0.2%. Annual inflation is within the target corridor and amounted to 5.5%,” he stressed. Industrial production over 8 months of this year accelerated to 3.2%, Kapital reports. Kazakhstan attracts $330 billion FDI since 1991 Kazakhstan has attracted $330 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) from more than 120 countries since its independence, said Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Zhenis Kassymbek at a September 5 government meeting. More than 50% of FDI in Kazakhstan was attracted from the European Union (EU), including 90.4 billion from the Netherlands, $25.8 billion from Switzerland, $16.1 billion from France, $8.7 billion from Italy, $7.6 billion from Belgium and $5.2 billion from Germany. In addition, 15% or $48.4 billion of FDI was attracted from the United States, and 5% from the United Kingdom and China each. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev set foreign investment attraction as a priority in his September 2 state-of-the-nation address. Six hundred and fifty FDI projects have been proposed in Kazakhstan since 2010, of which 185 were proposed by EU investors, 111 by Russian investors, 80 by Turkish investors and 55 by Chinese investors. There are also approximately 19,000 businesses with foreign investor involvement in Kazakhstan as of August 1, of which 35.3% involve Russian investors, 9.5% involve Turkish investors, 5.7% involve Uzbek investors, 5.6% involve Chinese investors and 3.1% involve German investors. Two hundred and thirty-five FDI projects worth $16.2 billion have been implemented since 2010, of which 133 projects have been implemented with the EU and Russia. Priority has been given to high-tech projects that involved technology transfer and job creation for people in Kazakhstan. “Given global instability and sanctions, investors choose countries with a stable investment climate. Each country seeks to increase its investment rating, so that not only capital enters the country but, also, new modern technologies,” said Kassymbek. China has funded and implemented 15 projects worth $3.9 billion in Kazakhstan since 2015, which is approximately 6% of the total FDI projects implemented in the country since 2010. This has led to the creation of 3,828 jobs in mechanical engineering, chemical industry, alternative energy and agribusiness. Five more Kazakh-Chinese projects will be implemented in the country before the end of the year, and new projects that will be implemented in the next 5-6 years are set to create approximately 20,000 new jobs. “All of these projects in various regions of the country use modern technology, are export-oriented and create jobs for people in Kazakhstan,” said Kassymbek, The Astana Times reported. Kazakhstan’s international reserves continue to decline Kazakhstan’s international reserves amounted to $87.7 billion. According to the National Bank, as of August 1 of the current year, the National Fund’s assets amounted to almost BANKING $60 billion, and gross international reserves to $27.7 billion. Thus, international reserves 2 ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER, September 2019 Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands amounted to $87.7 billion. The amount decreased by $600 million on-month, and by $1.4 billion from the beginning of the year. The maximum reserve was observed in January 2019 at $90 billion, the minimum was in March at $87.5 billion. The assets of the National Fund from the beginning of the year increased by $2 billion to $60 billion. While gross international reserves decreased by $3.2 billion to $27.7 billion, LS reported. Kazakhstan may provide support to banks for 400-600 billion tenge after Asset Quality Review The government of Kazakhstan is likely to launch a program of state support for the financial sector after assessing the quality of assets of the country’s banks, Vladlen Kuznetsov, a leading analyst at Moody’s banking sector in Kazakhstan, said. “I do not exclude that certain measures will be taken by the state. Because it is unlikely that the National Bank will simply announce the size of bad loans and the level of capital shortfalls without further measures to rehabilitate the banking sector,” Kuznetsov said at a Moody's conference in Almaty. “Of course, measures will be proposed to improve the situation, including in the form of financial support. We expect that a program will be developed to improve the sector,” he added. According to Moody’s, the banking sector may require up to 400-600 billion tenge. “But these are estimates based on our methodology, according to the AQR results, a different amount can be obtained, since it can be based on other evaluation criteria,” Vladlen Kuznetsov noted. Moody’s expects state support will be provided to large banks. “The banking sector will probably be able to make up for the missing 400-600 billion tenge, but after a few years. However, at the moment, the task is to improve the banking sector as soon as possible,” Moody’s analyst said. As you know, the National Bank began assessing the quality of assets on August 1 and plans to complete it in late November or early December of this year. The audit covered 14 banks of the country. The banking sector of Kazakhstan is represented by 28 banks, Kapital reports. Two banks merge in Kazakhstan Jýsan Bank and First Heartland Bank completed the merger. According to the financial institution, as a result of consolidation, the volume of assets of First Heartland Jýsan Bank amounted to 1.2 trillion tenge. Equity increased by 14%, up to 144 billion tenge, and customer accounts exceeded 620 billion tenge. As of August 1 of this year, Jýsan Bank’s current liquidity ratio of at least 30% amounted to 1,549.6%. The capital adequacy ratio reached 27.5%, with the standard not less than 7.5%. In early February this year, First Heartland Securities brokerage company bought 99.5% of the shares of Tsesnabank. After fulfilling the preconditions, the bank was recapitalised in the amount of 70 billion tenge. Later Bekzhan Pirmatov was appointed the Chairman of the board of Tsesnabank. The board of directors of the financial institute was headed by Shigeo Katsu. Since December 2010, he is president of Nazarbayev University. At the end of 2018, Tsesnabank showed a negative trend in its loan portfolio at 297 billion tenge; 17.4%. An outflow of deposits was also observed by 859.9 billion tenge, or 55.1%. In April, Tsesnabank changed its name to First Heartland Jýsan Bank with the retail brand Jýsan Bank. KPMG audited the financial statements of First Heartland Jýsan Bank for 2018. They expressed a negative opinion regarding the financial statements of the financial institution, LS reported. 3 ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER, September 2019 Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands ENERGY & NATURAL RESOURCES Oil production in Kazakhstan aimed to reach 105 million tons by 2025 By 2025, the annual oil production in Kazakhstan will reach 105 million tons. This was announced by Minister of Energy Kanat Bozumbayev during the celebration of the 120th anniversary of Kazakhstani oil. “A number of large-scale and long-term engineering projects are ongoing in the oil and gas industry. In oil production, the main increase in investments in the medium term and in the amount of $44.5 billion falls on the implementation of three projects, including the project for the future expansion of Tengiz worth $36.8 billion, projects for the expansion of the 1st stage of Kashagan worth $2 billion, projects for the extension of production at Karachaganak worth
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