i Russia– EU Relations and the Common Neighborhood Examining Russia– EU relations in terms of the forms and types of power tools they use, this book argues that the deteriorating relations between Russia and the EU lie in the deep differences in their preferences for the international status quo. These different approaches, combined with eco- nomic interdependence and geographic proximity, means both parties experi- ence signifi cant diffi culties in shaping strategy and formulating agendas with regards to each other. The Russian leadership is well aware of the EU’s “authority orientation” but fails to reliably predict foreign policy at the EU level, whilst the EU realizes Russia’s “coercive orientation” in general, but cannot predict when and where coercive tools will be used next. Russia is gradually realizing the importance of authority, while the EU sees the necessity of coercion tools for coping with certain challenges. The learning process is ongoing but the basic distinction remains unchanged and so their approaches cannot be reconciled as long as both actors exist in their current form. Using a theoretical framework and case studies including Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine, Busygina examines the possibilities and constraints that arise when the “power of authority” and the “power of coercion” interact with each other, and how this interaction affects third parties. Irina Busygina is Professor of Politics at the National Research University “ Higher School of Economics ” in St. Petersburg. She was previously Professor of Comparative Politics at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and European Studies Institute at MGIMO. She also heads the Centre for Regional Political Studies at MGIMO. Her main spheres of research include EU – Russia relations, regional development and regional policy in Russia and the EU (comparatively) and also federalism in the EU and Russia. Over the last several years she has conducted extensive research — both individually and with co- authors — connecting challenges of globalization for the Russian domestic and foreign policies with the need for political modernization. Her most recent book is Political Modernization of the State in Russia , published in 2012 by Liberal Mission Foundation (in Russian, with Mikhail Filippov). ii Post- Soviet Politics Series Editor : Neil Robinson The last decade has seen rapid and fundamental change in the countries of the former Soviet Union. Although there has been considerable academic comment on these changes over the years, detailed empirical and theoretical research on the transformation of the post- Soviet space is only just beginning to appear as new paradigms are developed to explain change. Post- Soviet Politics is a series focusing on the politics of change in the states of the former USSR. The series publishes original work that blends theoret- ical development with empirical research on post- Soviet politics. The series includes work that progresses comparative analysis of post- Soviet politics, as well as case study research on political change in individual post- Soviet states. The series features original research monographs, thematically strong edited collections and specialized texts. Uniquely, this series brings together the complete spectrum of work on post- Soviet politics, providing a voice for academics worldwide. Forthcoming Euro- Atlantic Discourse in Georgia The Making of Georgian Foreign and Domestic Policy After the Rose Revolution Frederik Coene Most recently published titles Russian Foreign Policy in Eurasia National Interests and Regional Integration Lilia A. Arakelyan Russia – EU Relations and the Common Neighborhood Coercion vs. Authority Irina Busygina iii Russia– EU Relations and the Common Neighborhood Coercion vs. Authority Irina Busygina iv First published 2018 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2018 Irina Busygina The right of Irina Busygina to be identifi ed as author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license Trademark notice : Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identifi cation and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Names: Busygina, Irina, author. Title: Russia-EU relations and the common neighborhood : coercion vs. authority / Irina Busygina. Other titles: Russia-European Union relations and the common neighbourhood Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2017. | Series: Post-Soviet politics | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2017002130 | ISBN 9781138215467 (hardback) | ISBN 9781315443966 (e-book) Subjects: LCSH: Russia (Federation)–Foreign relations. | Russia (Federation)–Foreign relations–European Union countries. | European Union countries–Foreign relations–Russia (Federation) | Russia (Federation)–Foreign relations–Former Soviet republics. | Former Soviet republics–Foreign relations–Russia (Federation) Classifi cation: LCC DK510.764 .B88 2017 | DDC 341.242/20947–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017002130 ISBN: 9781138215467 (hbk) ISBN: 9781315443966 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Out of House Publishing v To my parents, and to Sascha, Lisa, Sophia and Iliya ***** The General and his troops march forth to battle, The Sickling and the Timid stop at home, The Rich Man purchases a costly dome. The Proud Man falls, and Laughter mocks his fall, The Crafty Man makes cat’s- paws of them all! Friedrich Schiller, “The Game of Life” vi “This book by Irina Busygina offers a broad comparative analysis of con- troversial and less than consistent policies pursued by Moscow and Brussels towards the ‘grey zone’ between them. Using the contraposition of coercion and authority, the author offers compelling conclusions about the roots and the dynamics of the current Russia–EU crisis. A balanced, highly readable volume which should be a reference book for policymakers and scholars on both sides of the European divide.” Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) “Irina Busygina is one of the most thoughtful Russian experts on EU–Russia relations. In her new book, she takes up the challenging task of sorting out the once promising, but by now woefully broken relationship. Irina, however, is looking beyond the current alienation. She urges both sides to learn from their failure in order to build more viable ties going forward.” Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center “In her new book, Irina Busygina offers an elegant, theoretically informed analysis of EU–Russia relations that is much needed for grasping the nature of the present confrontation. Looking at their interaction as well as their poli- cies in the common neighbourhood from the perspective of different forms of power, Busygina sheds light on both similarities and differences in their strate- gies. Her insights are sobering: while coercion can work in the short-term, the EU’s mode of existence is better suited to build more stable authority rela- tions although this has proven to be complicated in the time of crisis.” Tuomas Forsberg, Professor of International Politics at the University of Tampere, Finland v i Contents Acknowledgments viii Introduction: and yet another book 1 1 Forms of power in international relations 13 2 State- building in Russia and the choice for coercion in external relations 33 3 Multilevel arrangements in EU external relations: stimulating authority, constraining coercion 57 4 Russia and the EU: from failed authority to mutual coercion 83 5 Russia and the EU: no winners in the common neighborhood 107 6 Belarus: strangulation in a fraternal embrace 127 7 Georgia: the story of one coercion and two authorities 146 8 Ukraine: the “battlefi eld” 171 9 Turkey: not- so- terrible coercion, not- so- needed authority 200 Conclusion: Russia’s “coercive attractiveness” and the EU’s “global mission” in maintaining authority relations 223 Index 229 vi Acknowledgments This book is a culmination of my research on Russia – EU relations and their effects on the countries of the “ common neighborhood. ” But the book is not a result of my work only; the efforts of individuals and institutions made this project possible. This book project has been supported by the Center of Excellence “ Choices of Russian Modernization ” and by Finland Distinguished Professorship “ Regimes, Institutions, and Changes: Politics and Governance in Russia in Comparative Perspective ” (Vladimir Gel ’ man), both funded by the Academy of Finland. My grateful acknowledgment to the Aleksanteri Institute, University of Helsinki; the research seminars and discussions with my col- leagues and friends there were invaluable. I would like to specially thank Markku Kivinen, Tuomas Forsberg, Anna- Maria Salmi, Hanna Smith, Jeremy Smith and Anna Korhonen. I am infi nitely grateful to Anastasia Golofast and Elizaveta Busygina for their excellent research assistance. The very professional, friendly and detailed linguistic assistance