Thursday, November 18, 1999 • Volume 6, Number 14 Page 1of8 GOP bench beyond -~.~r... THE ·-·==···-··­=--==- Mcintosh is lean -- Tucker Quayle pondering move home HoWEYT' By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Stephen Goldsmith. Sue Anne Gilroy. Paul Helmke. A mere three years ago, these were the "rising stars" POLITICAL of the Republican Party - the people who would carry the party back to the glory days of winning the gover­ norship and maintaining the other centers of power. REPORT Today, they are a vanquished trio, and while their political careers are not over by any means, their losses for governor, mayor of Indianapolis and the U.S. Senate have The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink thrust the Indiana GOP's hope almost solely into the hands Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is of U.S. Rep. David Mcintosh. And he faces the daunting an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana. task of knocking off a popular incumbent governor - some­ thing that hasn't even come close to happening since gover­ Brian A. Howey nors were allowed to succeed themselves. editor and publisher What should be even more troubling for Indiana The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 Republicans is that when compared to their Democratic PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-254-2405 counterparts, the next generation of leaders for the party is Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 [email protected] extremely lean. www.howeypolitics.com Compare the leadership potential for the Indiana Washington office: 202-775-3242 Democrats in the post-O'Bannon era. There could be a three­ Business Office: 317-254-0535. Pager: 317-320-2722 way battle for the 2004 gubernatorial nomination among Lt. Gov. , Attorney General Jeff Modisett, and House Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. 273 Speaker John Gregg. Most insiders give Kernan the inside Subscriptions: $250 annually via fax or first advantage because of his No. 2 position as well as his politi­ class mail. Call 317-254-1533. cal and oratory skills. Modisett has been one of the most © 1999, The Howey Political Report. All rights prominent AGs in recent history. Gregg is a political legend reserved. Photocopying, faxing or reproducing in any in the making based on the sheer vividness of his personali­ form, in whole or in part, is a viola.tion offederal la.w ty. and is strictly prohibited without consent of the There is the Congressional class that includes Baron publisher. Continued on page 2 "QUOTE" OF THE WEEK INSIDE F E A T U R E S

'I think It's a good PR move, personally' ... " Ticker Tape: Goldsmith to B&D p. 2 HPR Interview: Cook & Rothenb rg p. 4 ·State Sen. Larry Borst, on Gov. O'Bannon's O'Bannon, Mcintosh DC bucks flow p. 6 insistence the legislature pass leftover bills from Horse Race:· 2nd CD battles focus on last spring, to The Associated Press Linder, Pence, Phipps, Fox p.8

HPR Daily Wire Debuts January 2000 Thursday, NoveD1LJ~,er ll8, 1999 Pagt2 of8

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Hill and Tim Roemer, who _1ave !;ta1:ewide come back in 2004 :arn1d an open governor­ office potential. ship. TICKI'.~R Next there are the mayors·· Ba1rt The Indiana R•:!JPUblican Congres­ T A p E Peterson in Indianapolis, Graham Ric 1c 1 :l sional delegation has ·',i',vo potential in Fort Wayne, and John Femandt~z in statewide candidates: .1 hrk Souder, who Bloomington - all with statewide potential is self-limited to six teirns (his final race SolllrCE•I) tell HPR tiiat ~1e at this point. Then there are legislators - would be 2004), and i.s perhaps the most Marion County Re·pul iii can Peggy Welch from Bloomington, Rllls:s attuned political strat1;,:~r.l:st in the state; and • chairmnnship dilemnruil will Stilwell from Booneville, Brian lfasle:r Ed Pease, who served m a distinguished be rescilved within thi! 1~ext fashion in the Indiana S1~nate, 8Illdt two we·l!ks. One scer1 :i1io from Evansville. has Staite Sen. Pat Mi linr Throw in Davi.d Johnson, a c .. md]·· appears to be on a nati:onal leadership tra­ replacing John Swee1'.ey. date Washington analysts Charles Cook jectory in the House:. But other sources sai~1 IVliller and Stuart Rothenberg say could have: From the Stateho1 se, Auditor has made a commitm1011t to shelf-life after his race with U.S. Se.11. Connie Nass is consi.: ~r:!d a possible LG her ch1JJrch for the neJt~ year , and Jill Lon,;, the de.puty candidate. Marion CournLy Sheriff Jack and not serve as d1air. wm U.S. Secretary of Agricul1ture, who main·· Cottey could be an ernerging political force, although he bloodied himself up in Gov. Fra111k O'Banno11 who tains a home in Argos. 1 the late stages of the Gilroy campaiign stated he wanted tlhie legis· with direct mail and rad:i.o ads mairuy saw latur1e to "get in, get ,c,ut and Republican cupboard as racially insensitiv,E:. John R Price, run­ get dlo111e" {Fort WaryrMt Should Mcintosh ups,et Gov. Journal Gazette) not 11mly ning for govenor in the GOP primar)', O'Bannon in 2000, that would be a looks ms if he's goi111n1 ti> get could be seen as a pol 1;n _ial LG choice if replenishing event for the Grand Old ·:he four bills he insisij1ai~ on lightning doesn't strifo: l\1clntosh. passing dluring this w1~!k's Party, because his organizait: ::m has 61.~ The Republican nrayoral class is annual Organization Clay, potential to spin off policy and a :next almost non-existent, atthough Evansville's but on Wednesday generation of candidates in a fashilo1rn simi­ Russell Lloyd Jr. will rnerit attention. announ·ced that Ame!'icarn lar to those of Lugar, Dan Coats andl Ev.a[] Helmke would be the -: c ds-on favonte in United life will stay ir1 Bayh. the 4th CD when Sm.:der decides to step Indianapolis after a icc1mpro­ A Mcintosh defeat would be devas­ misie was reached allc1111ing down. He'll need to win a race befor·e he tating, although Mcintosh's yo11th altld is viable on a statewide, .>tage. Continued on page 3 energy might give him the c7portunity tc The GOP's legt'> :tive class is very • Page3 of8 Thursday, November 18, 1999 lean. State Rep. Jeff Linder is in an uphill Republicans controlled the legislature, the race for the 2nd CD nomination. Mike governorship, most of the-Statehouse TICKER Ripley ran a credible race for Congress in offices and the two U.S. Senate seats. It 1994, losing to Souder, and might be dominated Hoosier Democrats to the point T A P E expected to try again. Younger House of earning the so-called "rock-ribbed members like Matt Whetstone of Browns­ Republican" designation. the insurance giant to sell burg and State Sens. Becky Skillman of In 1999, analysts Cook and stock. The passage of this Bedford and Sue Scholer of West Rothenberg were questioning whether legislation would allow Lafayette, are potential ticket members. Indiana could be considered a Republican O'Bannon to recoup some From the business community, for­ state (see HPR Interview, page 4). of the losses he suffered mer Lilly CEO Randall Tobias would be during the chaotic end of credible with key GOP constituencies. the legislature's long ses­ What if Mcintosh•••• sion last spring. The AUL Another Lilly executive, Mitch Daniels, .. .loses in 2000? compromise allowed com­ would probably be an instant savior for With Lugar in the twilight of his pany President Jerry Semler the GOP, but has shown little inclination career, Dan Coats retired, and with names to announce that 1,500 new for holding public office. like Goldsmith, Hudnut, Gilroy and jobs were coming to And there is Kevin Kellems, the Helmke absorbing defeats, what the Indianapolis and that a new former Lugar aide who is running an Indiana Republicans may need are their high rise would be built uphill battle against Baron Hill in the 9th own version of - a legacy. WRTV's Norm Cox reported CD. that the building could be Indiana Democrats can trace their bulH along 1-465 and not As you can see, there are a lot of successes of the past 10 years to the emer­ downtown. O'Bannon and "ifs" and unknowns about the Indiana gence of Bayh, his take-over of the state legislative leaders took Republican Party after Mcintosh and party, and the spin-off of his proteges. stinging criticism after leg· Lugar. That GOP legacy could be Tucker islation that passed both ''There's no question, the Indiana Quayle, the 25-year-old son of former houses fell by the wayside Republican Party has a very shallow Vice President Dan Quayle. Sources tell last spring. That included bench, very shallow," said Mike Pence, HPR Tucker Quayle is trilingual, a busi­ continued tax incentives for the radio talk show host who is running nessman, a missionary who has served in research and development, a change in the financial for the 2nd CD. Should he win in China. "He's as good looking as his old institutions tax for In-state November 2000, he would be a credible man and as smart as his mom," the source banks to keep them from statewide candidate. told HPR. moving their charters else­ Pence likened the state of Indiana And, apparently, the young Quayle where, updating the state Republicans to that of the Democrats in is considering a move back home to tax code to conform wHh the early 1980s. At that point, the Indiana.•!• federal law, and reauthoriza­ tion of the state's social ser­ vices agency. House Democrats tried to suspend HPR needs your e-mail address Constitutional rules that would have allowed pas­ We must have it! sage of the bills in one day, So you can get HPR next January over the Internet. but House Republicans balked, resulting in an Organization Day session e-mail: [email protected] expected to last through the end of the week. Republi· Please type your name and e-mail address in the message box. cans sources tell HPR that they have conceded to O'Bannon's wishes even If you can't get e-mail, we'll need your fax number. though they know it will Call 317-254-1533 and leave us your fax number. allow him to recover some continued on page 4 ------·------Page 41of8 Thursday, November 18, 1~99 TICKI:~~R Cook & Rothenb113n;~ ~)urvey lndia.n1a (Pawit 2) T A p E Washington ana~ysts taiJl:< about Dk:!< Lugar, David JohnBon, Evan Bayh •

l1.lll1l Ill Ill I1 I i1 ~I WASHINGTON - As part of t:he sider. I think that you lllave to think that HPR Pre-Election '99 Briefing series ultimately, if Bill Brn.dle:y or Al Gore, polillicaill luster he los.t l.ast conducted in South Bend, Fort Wayn·e, whoever wins the Demo1~ratic nomirnation spring, fearing that th1~·~ wo·uld appear obstruc;tionist Indianapolis and EvansviHe last month, in the early states and Lw: March 7 states, if the bms died. HPR's Mark Schoeff Jr., sal down Vi'ifh if the Republicans dm1't win hldia:na it's Washington analysts Charles Cook ;:md going to be an awfulny bad year for them Some I-louse Democrn11ts Stuart Rothenberg to survey the Irndiana '"''I( in2000.SoI were uneasy about 1th1! pas­ and American political landscape.. i don't think 1J sage of the bills becam;e HPR: Looking at tbe presidential !' .. 11, there's much they started in the Hp] the Democrats race, there seemed to be more support for "' L,._ Rep1J1blican·held Sen21t1!. Bill Bradley here in Indiana than woulldl "Wh1r?" said State R1~1:i. I N T E Rv I E'N can do in have been expected. What are you looking 1 l"J"J'J Indiana. Now Chet Dobis. "The rea~ rea· ! f for with regard to Indiana? lllHll' ' . lII the neighbor- son is JPiOlitlcal. Foll' sc:1me Cook: One thing we're reason !they want to ~mike wa:tcl1:r,g is ing states are absolute· r •critical. for the govemor look Iba~! iilnd Indiana changing. ll wasn't 1that long ago Republican hopes of i.~:gaining the '~ibite make it look like thes1:i were that this was a rock-ribbed state. '1Vith the House - Ohio, Illinoiis. ia~1d Michigan. all Republican·generartud idea that you could have back-w-back Cook: Back om: Bradley, whien you ideas" (Times of Hortllnvest Democratic governors for three and :?' )E :;1- listen to his message ....I mean, he went Indiana]!. But Sena1te bly four terms would have been absol11k!J before 3,000 Democra1:ic activists mDes President Pro Tem Reibert m$eard of. Is the state becoming less Moines recently and he i~ave a general Garton denied politic:~! was Republican? Probably so. Is it a. swi:ng election message aim .~d it independents involved. "If we wer1e l:rying state? Probably not. But I think it's 1~oing and reformers. Now ,,dc:n you've got to

"Bayh and O'Bannon have been a team we devolve power and move more for a long time," said New. resources to the state level: We want the New said that the bulk of O'Ban­ right people to be there." non's campaign funds will come from While he continues to serve in TICKER Indiana. In his re-election bid, O'Bannon Congress, Mcintosh is pursuing issues T A P E has more funding opportunities in that may also resonate on the campaign Washington and beyond. "It has more to trail in Indiana. He is one of the leading itics with reassessment," do with contacts he has made across the advocates of eliminating the marriage said Judy Sharp, president country as a result of DGA," said New. penalty tax. It was included in a tax pack­ of the County Assessor's O'Bannon also has used the gov­ age that President Clinton vetoed earlier Association. ''This is the ernor's association to increase Democra­ this year. Now Mcintosh is working with biggest issue our state is tic clout on issues like hiring teachers and Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert and facing right now, and we reducing class size. He helped the DGA Bayh in the Senate to bring the measure need more time, more train­ ing, and more tools to com­ make an impact within the National back as a free-standing bill next year. plete our jobs with the Governors Association, where Democrats Even though he stepped down as utmost accuracy." are significantly outnumbered by Repub­ the head of the Conservative Action licans. "He's been an activist and effec­ Team (CATs) when he made his guberna­ Evansville Police have bust· tive chairman," said John Hochstetter, torial run official, Mcintosh heads a spe­ ed Its 43rd methampheta· DGA spokesman. "He's done an absolute­ cial CATs task force that has lobbied mine lab In what the Courier ly wonderful job." Hastert and appropriations committees to & Press describes as located Mcintosh will portray his Wash­ protect Social Security funding. "The "In a peaceful residential ington experience as an advantage. "What biggest impact has been that we held the street two blocks south of Washington Middle School." I want to do in running for govemor and line and didn't go back to spending the Police said if the lab had serving as governor is to take the.Reagan Social Security surplus" in the federal exploded, it could have taken philosophy home to Indiana and show it budget that likely will be approved this out several nearby homes. can work in a practical way," he said. He week, Mcintosh said. "That has been the highlighted reducing property taxes and top project coming out of my office." The State Budget Committee cutting red tape in education as examples Also during the appropriations "gave grudging approval" to of the policies he would advocate. process this fall, Mcintosh claimed the first sites of the Indiana Capitol Hill Republicans are credit for helping Lake County hospitals Community College system" fighting to maintain control of the House, receive full reimbursements for the costs (Bloomlngon Herald-Times). The program will start In the where the GOP holds a five-seat majori­ of treating Medicare patients. In a bill fall of 2000 at Gary, ty. But that doesn't mean that some approved last week, about $12 billion in Indianapolis, Evansville and staffers aren't keeping an eye on the state Medicare funding cut by the 1997 bal­ Lafayette and In Muncie, houses. "The way good Republican ideas anced budget agreement will be restored Anderson and Marion in are executed when we have a Democratic to hospitals, nursing homes and other 2001. president is through the governors," said health care facilities. Ziad Ojakli, chief of staff for the Senate But as Mcintosh continues to serve The Fort Wayne Journal Republican Conference Secretary. on Capitol Hill, he must continue to vote, Gazette released Its poll In Ojakli, former chief of staff for creating a target for his opponent. O'Ban­ the last we k of the mayoral Rep. Mark Souder (R-CD 4), heads a non ran against Indianapolis Mayor race there showing Republican Unda Buskirk communications effort that attempts to Stephen Goldsmith in 1996. Like all with a double digit lead. send the GOP message outside the office holders, Goldsmith had a history. HPRfTeleResearch had Beltway. He often relies on Republican But as a government executive, his back­ Buskirk leading by 1 point governors like John Engler of Michigan, ground wasn't sketched in the black-and­ and analyzed the race trend­ Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin's white of congressional votes. - ing toward Democrat Tommy Thompson and Oklahoma's "It's a different dynamic," said Graham Richard, who even· Frank Keating. Ojakli puts Mcintosh in New. "If the congressman is the Repub­ tually won by 76 votes. Last that company. Electing GOP governors is lican nominee, then he has a record he week, JG pollster Tom becoming "of even greater importance as has to defend." •!• continued on page B ·------·-·----·------Thursday, November 18, 1999 Page 8 o1t':8 TI<:KEJl Indiana R1g~m~1I F1rrn1 1 r~n T A P E INDIANA 2000 ~~A1CES 11 1 I I ii lil1l 111111 11 111 ul~• Congressional District 2: Rtl?p111bliican: Mike Pence, State Rep. J1:ffLinder, Pellegrene wrote a gues"I Andrew Phipps, Brad Steele, Fred Wengi~r. B:ill Fraizer, Luke Messner, David 1 :r~thers. column. Exr.erpts inclucl :·: Democrat: Melina Fox, Leisa Julian, Rem Gu)'le. Bob Rock Jr., Troy Ligget' :; eography: "In our Ocf:olber poll, for Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, Shelbyvi'lle Col U11nbus and East Central lnd121r, L. 1994 reslllllt:;: examtple, w~ interviewecJ Mcintosh 93,592, Hogsett 78,241. 1996 :<.~·wlt!:: 11.iclntosh 122,288, Carmi.:1iae I (D) 83,478. 836 regist·ered voters .... We Zimmennan (L) 4,662. 1998 Results: Mdr tc sh ("R) 99,584, Boles (D) 62,42(, Federle (L) cited a margin of error er!'. 2,236. 2000 Forecast: Phipps declared w1tl i 2n ~i§, 1t-city bus caravan carryrn : ·: 00 supporters. plus-or-minus 3.4 peirce.mt. Fonner House Speaker J. Roberts Dailey introd l~: ~d Phipps along the way. E-le nted issues of That means 1that in theorir, protecting Social Security and farr:ily farm~,. an:l •:onsuring "free trade is fair 1trndi1e." Linder says 19 of 20 similar surveys we he has raised $100,000. ~.ta'.e Rep. Brucf: 1'lunson, a Linder supporter, told :I-It' Muncie Star did at the same time woLJld Press that Pence will be tough competiti :m B UL L1 nder disagreed, saying, "I · ''v 'e never Jost a have found answers witl1iin race and Pence has never won one ' Penc:e h<1s won two primaries. Pence's f1111 :l ·aising mach in­ 3.4 percent of the correc:·1 ery kicks in with December events m Muncie (lt>->sLed by Van Smith), in Rid1i..ncnd (Wayne answers. There's no way r.1f Vinson and Bill Dennis, ~on of iormer Con.~r1;s~.m Lll David Dennis), and Colmnbus (Dick knowing what survey is he Johnson). That represent~. the hear1 of the. :Mcln1o;:ll fundraising machine. On 1ti1 Democratic 2oth survey." Pellegre111e side, Rock, Liggett, Fox and Guyre met wi·th th1; .DCCC. Julian is weighing <1 i:e;ision and continued, "Our methodlii should decide by Dec. 1. Her hustrnd is ]coking for work after the mayor of 'llaion lost. If are sound. But the voter~!' Julian drops out, that opens the \V2i2' for Foll to pick up EMILY'S List suppmt a.lld that co1J1ld are the ones who make th1! propel her to frontrunner status. Fox, the 2r ::'.CD vice chair and a Clinton ag a:ppointee, would final decision." And he have gender, agriculture and key party contacts wie:ighlng in her favor. Rep. ~11Ge:ny Hoyer insists added, "Read or listen tc1 2nd_ CD is a top national priority. Primary Status: LEANS PENCE (R); TOSSUP (D). media pollllng for the 'ho111' Congressional District 4: Rt!pniblii•ean: U.S. Rep. Mark Souci~er .. hfike Loomis. and the 'why,· not just u· ·~ Democrat: Mik~ Foster. Geogirap·ty: fort Way-m1:, Huntington, NE Indiana. 1[~194 results: 'who.' If there isn't anylti' i rig Souder 83,466, Long 65,956. 19~1115· Resrnlt:!1: Souder U8,344, Houseman (I>> 76,152, Bissen (L) more to the story than t ·1r:1 4,743. 1998 Results: Souder 93,671, Wi~hde 54 .. 286. 2000 Forecast: Fort '1'"1:1.e Women's score,' stotp reading and Bureau executive Betty Tonsing dropped. out of tb;~ Democratic race citing he 1.1 1 problems. That tune out." •:• leaves FedExcourier Foster as the sole DemomLt. Status: SOUD SOUDER. - Bri~m ~~ . Howey ·:~

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