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Tornado Fatalities: an In-Depth Look at Physical and Societal Influences Heather Joann Key University of South Florida, [email protected]

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Tornado Fatalities: an In-Depth Look at Physical and Societal Influences Heather Joann Key University of South Florida, Hkey@Mail.Usf.Edu University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School January 2015 Tornado Fatalities: An In-Depth Look at Physical and Societal Influences Heather Joann Key University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Environmental Sciences Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Other Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Scholar Commons Citation Key, Heather Joann, "Tornado Fatalities: An In-Depth Look at Physical and Societal Influences" (2015). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5714 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Tornado Fatalities: An In-Depth Look at Physical and Societal Influences by Heather J. Key A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science School of Geosciences College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Jennifer Collins, Ph.D. Joni Downs, Ph.D. Margarethe Kusenbach, Ph.D. Date of Approval: May 29, 2015 Keywords: Tornadoes, Hazards, Disasters, Vulnerabilities Copyright © 2015, Heather J. Key Acknowledgments I would like to recognize my thesis committee, Dr. Jennifer Collins, Dr. Margarethe Kusenbach, and Dr. Joni Down, for their help and guidance throughout this process. I’d like to thank my major professor Dr. Jennifer Collins for her help in formulating my topic, her helpful feedback, and support and patience throughout the process. I’d like to thank Dr. Margarethe Kusenbach for her guidance in making my topic feasible, her knowledge of and willingness to teach qualitative methods, and for her help in formulating the interview schedule and identifying themes, sub-themes, and categories. I’d like to thank Dr. Joni Downs for her guidance on the GIS portion of the study, and her helpful feedback specifically on the quantitative analyses. I’d like to thank Dr. Steven Reader for his help with getting regressions to work in R and his guidance on reducing the range of my Tornado Death Index values. I’d also like to thank my fiance Thomas Lisy for providing feedback on my thesis, and for supporting and encouraging me. Finally, I would like to thank all of my loved ones and mentors who have been there for me through this process. Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vi Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 1.1 Tornado Meteorology and Climatology .........................................................................2 1.2 Tornado Fatalities ..........................................................................................................5 1.3 Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk and Disaster ......................................................................6 1.4 The Political Environment and Approaches towards Disasters .....................................7 1.5 Trends in Hazards ........................................................................................................11 1.6 Risk Perception ............................................................................................................12 1.7 The Role of Emergency Managers in Tornadoes ........................................................12 1.8 Tornado Characteristics ...............................................................................................14 1.8.1 Frequency of Tornadoes ...............................................................................14 1.8.2 Tornado Paths ...............................................................................................15 1.8.3 Tornado EF-Scale .........................................................................................16 1.8.4. Nocturnal Tornadoes ....................................................................................18 1.9 Demographics ..............................................................................................................19 1.9.1 Population Density ........................................................................................19 1.9.2 Household Income ........................................................................................20 1.9.3 Age ................................................................................................................21 1.9.4 Race/Ethnicity ...............................................................................................22 1.9.5 Immigration...................................................................................................22 1.9.6 Gender ..........................................................................................................24 1.9.7 Education ......................................................................................................25 1.10 Housing Types and Characteristics ............................................................................25 1.11 Cultural Beliefs ..........................................................................................................28 1.12 Region ........................................................................................................................30 1.13 Rural vs. Urban ..........................................................................................................31 1.14 Potential Casualty (PotCas) .......................................................................................31 1.15 Tornado Death Index (TDI) .......................................................................................32 1.16 Summary and Implications ........................................................................................34 1.17. Statement of Research...............................................................................................35 1.18. Study Objectives and Research Questions ................................................................36 Chapter 2. Research Methods and Data .........................................................................................40 2.1 Study Area ...................................................................................................................40 i 2.2 Data Collection ............................................................................................................43 2.2.1 Quantitative Data Collection.........................................................................44 2.2.2 Interview Data Collection .............................................................................50 2.3 Data Analyses ..............................................................................................................53 2.3.1 Quantitative Analysis ....................................................................................53 2.3.2 Interview .......................................................................................................54 Chapter 3. Results ..........................................................................................................................56 3.1 Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................56 3.2 Multiple Regressions ...................................................................................................63 3.3 Multiple Regression Diagnostics .................................................................................68 3.4 Interview Analysis .......................................................................................................74 3.4.1 Vulnerabilities and Risks: Vulnerabilities ....................................................75 3.4.2 Vulnerabilities and Risks: Behaviors ............................................................76 3.4.3 Vulnerabilities and Risks: Physical Risk Factors .........................................78 3.4.4 Protective and Preventive Measures: Actual Protective Measures ...............82 3.4.5 Protective and Preventive Measures: Ideal Strategies ..................................85 Chapter 4. Discussion ....................................................................................................................87 4.1 Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................87 4.2 Multiple Regressions ...................................................................................................89 4.3 Multiple Regression Diagnostics .................................................................................94 4.4 Interview Analysis .......................................................................................................95 4.4.1 Vulnerabilities and Risks: Vulnerabilities ....................................................95 4.4.2 Vulnerabilities and Risks: Behaviors ............................................................96
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