The Domestic Origins of No-War Communities State capacity and the management of territorial disputes in South America and Southeast Asia Nicole Jenne Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, May, 2016 European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences The Domestic Origins of No-War Communities State capacity and the management of territorial disputes in South America and Southeast Asia Nicole Jenne Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Prof. Dr. Christian Reus-Smit, University of Queensland Prof. Dr. Emanuel Adler, University of Toronto Prof. Dr. Pascal Vennesson, S. Rajaratnam School of Intl. Studies, Singapore Prof. Dr. Nicholas J. Wheeler, University of Birmingham © Nicole Jenne, 2016 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme I, Nicole Jenne, certify that I am the author of the work The Domestic Origins of No- War Communities I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 119.817 words. Signature and date: 29 April 2016 Abstract This thesis seeks to explain the relative absence of inter-state war in South America and Southeast Asia. I maintain that the two regions are security communities in a minimalist sense. The sustenance of these minimalist, no-war communities lacks a conclusive explanation, as the factors commonly emphasised by security community scholars have been either weak or wholly absent in the two cases. The emergence of no-war communities in South America and Southeast Asia is all the more puzzling given the fact that in both regions there have been numerous territorial disputes, which have been shown to be the best predictor of interstate conflict. Building on qualitative case studies of territorial disputes, I advance three propositions. First, I argue that a lack of domestic state capacity induced an overriding and lasting concern with internal stability in the two regions. The need for internal security created incentives to manage international conflict, leading states to avoid war with their neighbours. Second, I maintain that in order to understand the conjunction between accommodation and the sporadic escalation of conflict, state capacity needs to be disaggregated into its theoretically relevant dimensions. In this study, three dimensions correlated strongly with how states behaved in territorial dispute: military capacity, institutional capacity, and socio-political cohesion. My third proposition is that in both regions, states came to develop stable expectations that major war between them was highly unlikely. The causal arrow that explains the emergence of community in South America and Southeast Asia is domestic incapacity; however, how the no-war pattern regularized and institutionalized, took different forms in the two regions. i ii Acknowledgements During my PhD I felt many times that there is no way of giving back what I have received. In the lines that follow I can only acknowledge some of the support I was given. There are numerous persons whose help has been crucial to me and who are not mentioned here. I hope they nevertheless know what their openness and dedication meant to me. During my fieldwork many people shared their time, insights, contacts and cultures with me, and they did so despite being well aware of my glaring lack of knowledge. In Venezuela, I thank especially Angelina Jaffé at the Universidad Metropolitana and Inno Pereira at the Instituto Pedro Gual for the institutional and moral support they provided. I am indebted also to Ángel Blanco for the many novel insights from taking me around Caracas and for his continued friendship. In Colombia, Armando Borrero and Fernando Cepeda made me understand what I was grappling with. Pedro Gómez and Emma García provided me with the best research conditions one can wish for, and I am grateful for their interest, their time and energy. I also thank Hugo Fazio and Ángela Irranzo for hosting me at the Universidad de los Andes in Bogota and for their generous support in all my endeavours. In Chile, I quickly found a home with Claudia Cuevas and Paola Faúndez. Jorge Almendras has become one of the persons I could share most of my passions and fears with, academic and otherwise. If part of my heart remained attached to Chile, this was not least due to the selfless dedication and support offered by Roberto Durán at the ICP at the Universidad Católica. I am thankful to the ICP for hosting me, and I also want to express my gratitude to Ximena Varela and her team at ANEPE for providing me with excellent research support. In Argentina I benefited from my affiliation with FLACSO in Buenos Aires and in particular from my discussions with Carlos Strasser, each of which helped to make sense of the input I was receiving. With Roberto Moncayo I was introduced into a family to which I owe most of my understanding of Argentina. A thousand thanks also to Roberto Ulloa, especially for the possibility to visit Puerto Belgrano, which was worth more than any amount of hours of study in a library. Singapore and my affiliation with RSIS opened my way to Southeast Asia. Intellectually, I am indebted to Mushaid Ali and Kwa Chong Guan for many conversations about ASEAN. I want to thank also Ralf Emmers, See Seng Tan and Pascal Vennesson for receiving me at RSIS and for their unfailing support to my research. The following people took care of virtually any of my questions and needs, for which I am grateful: Chang Jun Yang, Collin Koh Swee Lean, Eddie Lim, Ian Storey and Phillip Ee. Kol Azmi bin Mohd Yusoff welcomed me with great hospitality in Malaysia. I further thank the staff at MIMA for hosting me and for attending the many enquiries I brought up. I am grateful also to Encik Rahim Hussin for his interest, his dedication and time. Each of the following persons offered unconventional views that I could not iii have obtained elsewhere: Admiral Mat Rabi, Tan Sri Jawhar Hassan, Liew Chin Tong and Kim Beng Phar. Sharihman Lockman was an unfailing mental and intellectual support I could turn to. In Indonesia, I want to thank especially the Habibie Center for hosting me and in addition, Mas Alman and Mas Ditya, without who many things would not have been possible. The same holds for Kesa Ly and Sok Udom Deth in Cambodia, where Zaman University and its faculty were the best support I could ask for. I also thank Professor Sovachana Pou and Ambassador Pou Sothirak for their unfailing encouragement and help, the team of Yara Suos for their confidence in me, General Samir Chan for patiently attending innumerable queries, and the members of Wednesday’s group at Cantina, especially Alan Parkhouse. David Chandler, Steve Heder and Michael Vickery were patient in answering my many questions in person and never failed to respond to my e-mails. In Thailand, several persons have dedicated extensive time, energy and resources to navigate me through the complex issues of Thai politics – how complex is reflected in the following list of persons, to whom I am especially thankful: Ajarn Sarachart Bamrungsuk, Khun Panitan Wattanayagorn and Khun Kasit Piromya, Khun Songchai Chaipatiyut, Dr. Tej Bunnag, Gen. Nipat Thonglek, Kullada Kresboonchoo Mead and Apirux Wanasathop. Outside the country, Patrick Jory helped me to remain focused on what really mattered to my research. In Hanoi, I am grateful for the research support the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam provided to me and for the welcoming openness of Hoang Anh Tuan and Stein Tønnesson. I would have never found faith to undertake an academic endeavor in the first place without the early encouragement of Ralf Weiß and Diederik Boertien, for which I am grateful. My first trip to Colombia in 2011 taught me what I really wanted to do and turned this PhD project into what it has become. I am infinitely thankful to the family of John Jairo Londoño and Carolina Molano as well as Lucas Sánchez in Bogotá, the family of Adolfo Benavides in Armenia, and Claudia and Elsy Escobar de González in Cali for making it a matter of heart. Nicola Zanghì has been my most constant and valued connection to Florence, and Carlos Closa has been a friend, mentor and an intellectual inspiration across Florence and Madrid. In the first stage of the PhD I benefitted from my research stays at CSIC in Madrid and at GIGA in Hamburg, where I want to thank Detlef Nolte and Leslie Wehner for their support. During the last year I had the privilege to be part of POLSIS at the University of Queensland, Australia, and I want to express my gratitude to the administrative and academic staff for providing the doubtlessly best environment to grow up as an academic.