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Chinese Information Warfare: a Phantom Menace Or Emerging Threat?

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Chinese Information Warfare: a Phantom Menace Or Emerging Threat? CHINESE INFORMATION WARFARE: A PHANTOM MENACE OR EMERGING THREAT? Toshi Yoshihara November 2001 ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave., Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from the Publications Office by calling commercial (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or via the Internet at [email protected]. ***** Most 1993, 1994, and all later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://carlisle-www.army. mil/usassi/welcome.htm. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at [email protected] or by calling (717) 245-3133. ISBN 1-58487-074-5 ii FOREWORD Mao Tse-tung counseled, “To achieve victory we must as far as possible make the enemy blind and deaf by sealing his eyes and ears, and drive his commanders to distraction by creating confusion in their minds.” Few concepts mesh so contextually with Mao than the Chinese approach to Information Warfare (IW). As the People’s Republic of China struggles with its national military strategy, IW offers opportunities to win wars without the traditional clash of arms. In this monograph, Mr. Toshi Yoshihara explores what he perceives to be China’s pursuit of IW as a method of fighting asymmetric warfare against the United States. Largely imitative of U.S. thoughts, literature, and practices on IW, he believes the Chinese are seeking ways to adapt it to their own style of warfare. Paradoxically, he observes that the Chinese have not gleaned their intelligence through espionage, but through careful scrutiny of U.S. IW in practice. The Persian Gulf War and Kosovo conflict have provided ample largess to the Chinese archives. Mr. Yoshihara examines those aspects of IW—PSYOPS, Denial, and Deception—that China believes provides the greatest prospects for victory in a conflict. Not surprisingly, Sun Tzu is interwoven into this emerging theory. Targeting the enemy’s “nervous system” at all levels, that is, his ability to gather and assess information and then transmit orders, provides significant advantages in the prosecution of a campaign. Targeting the enemy’s homeland defenses and its citizens can potentially end a war before it even starts. He concludes that the extent of Chinese advances or intent regarding IW is difficult to ascertain given its closed society. Chinese IW may still be nascent, but the menacing intent is there and only vigilance will protect the United States. iii Much in the realm of IW remains speculative and conceptual. Aspiring nations can take advantage of the Revolution in Military Affairs by skipping generations of technology and becoming a modern, sophisticated threat, obviating the need for significant financial investments. The consequences of the threat are of great import to today’s strategic leaders and thinkers. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as a topic of debate that will continue into the millennium. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute iv BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF THE AUTHOR TOSHI YOSHIHARA is a Research Fellow and the resident expert on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. His research areas at the Institute include American alliances in the Asia-Pacific, China’s military modernization, China-Taiwan relations, Japan’s security policy, critical infrastructure protection, and energy security in the Persian Gulf. Mr. Yoshihara was an analyst focusing on China’s security policy and military modernization at the RAND Corporation and the American Enterprise Institute. He was a Visiting Fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University (1998-2000). Mr. Yoshihara received a B.S. in International Affairs from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and an M.A. in International Affairs from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is currently a doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, working on his dissertation on Chinese military innovation and information warfare. v SUMMARY In recent years, China has demonstrated an intense fascination with information warfare (IW). The potential advances in Chinese IW doctrine and capabilities have direct implications for U.S. national security. The ability of China to conduct information warfare against the United States in peacetime, confrontation, or conflict could pose severe challenges to defense planners. Yet, American understanding of China’s approaches to IW within the academic and defense communities remain shallow. This lack of understanding, both stemming from the extreme secrecy surrounding China’s military programs in general and the nascent stage of development in IW in particular, could invite ugly strategic and operational surprises for the United States. As an initial step to clarify the future direction of Chinese IW and to identify new areas for further research, this monograph explores Chinese perspectives of information warfare through a sampling of the burgeoning open literature circulating in China. The monograph provides a preliminary assessment of these Chinese writings and analysis. It demonstrates some linkages and parallels to America’s current debates on IW, the Soviet-U.S. competition, Clausewitz’s classic dictums, and Chinese strategic culture. The monograph concludes with implications of future developments in Chinese IW for American policy. vi CHINESE INFORMATION WARFARE A PHANTOM MENACE OR EMERGING THREAT? Dazzled by Information Warfare. In the past decade, China’s military modernization and growing interest in the revolution in military affairs (RMA) have increasingly attracted international attention. Like many other military powers, China has exploited the unprecedented general peace in the international security environment to reexamine and experiment with its own defense capabilities and doctrine. In particular, the concept of information warfare (IW) has emerged as a subject of great interest in Chinese military discourse. The intense discussions and debates within China’s defense community suggest that Beijing may be harnessing the political will to devote substantial resources to developing IW doctrines and capabilities. China’s potential ability to leverage the information revolution accompanied by its gradual rise as a major military power have led many observers to speculate whether China might succeed in becoming one of the global leaders in IW. China’s appreciation for the centrality of information as a tool of statecraft and military power has significant implications. Given the tremendous advances in information technologies both in terms of the rate of innovation and quality of improvements, China is well positioned to exploit this revolution. Just as China has surprised skeptical observers with its rapid developments in nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and space programs, the Chinese may similarly come to the forefront in IW. More importantly, China’s focus on IW presents a potentially daunting challenge for American defense planners. In two cyber-attack exercises in 1997 and 1999, the U.S. military found that a group of hackers “using publicly available 1 resources was able to prevent the United States from waging war effectively.” The Pentagon premised the first drill on a military crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The result of the exercise was sobering: the series of attacks against civilian and military networks had a paralyzing effect on American command and control at the highest levels of leadership. It is therefore conceivable that IW could provide China with the capacity to hinder American military operations in the Asia-Pacific, a region of central importance to U.S. national security interests. Hence, the direction of China’s IW strategy has direct policy relevance to the United States. In recent years, the Chinese have demonstrated a voracious appetite for examining IW. Arguably, only the United States and Russia rival China’s analytical work in IW. The exotic concepts and capabilities of IW have seemingly captivated the imagination of Chinese futurists and military strategists alike. Indeed, a virtual cottage industry has developed around the topic in Chinese literature on military affairs. How China will translate theoretical discussions on IW into practice will be an increasingly important policy question for the United States. The author first explores Chinese thinking on IW through a literature survey of primary sources. Strategists have demonstrated a keen interest in understanding the theoretical concepts, requirements, and capabilities necessary to conduct IW in future conflict. The second component of the monograph assesses the existing Chinese IW
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