DOCSLIB.ORG

Global / China Internet Trends

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Global / China Internet Trends Global / China Internet Trends Shantou University / Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business / Hong Kong University November 7, 2005 [email protected] [email protected] 1 Outline • Attributes of Winning Companies • Global Internet • China Internet • Your Questions 2 Attributes of Winning Companies 3 Attributes of Winning Companies… 1. Large market opportunities - it is better to have 10%, and rising, market share of a $1 billion market than 100% of a $100M market 2. Good technology/service that offers a significant value/service proposition to its customers 3. Simple, direct mission and strong culture 4. Missionary (not mercenary), passionate, maniacally-focused founder(s) 5. Technology magnets (never underestimate the power of great engineers) 6. Great management team / board of directors / committed partners 7. Ability to lead change and embrace chaos 8. Leading/sustainable market position with first-mover advantage 9. Brand leadership, leading reach and market share 10.Global presence 4 …Attributes of Winning Companies 11. Insane customer focus and rapidly growing customer base 12. Stickiness and customer loyalty 13. Extensible product line(s) with focus on constant improvement and regeneration 14. Clear, broad distribution plans 15. Opportunity to increase customer “touch points” 16. Strong business and milestone momentum 17. Annuity-like business with sustainable operating leverage assisted by barriers-to-entry 18. High gross margins 19. Path to improving operating margins 20. Low-cost infrastructure and development efforts 5 Global Internet 6 Internet Data Points: Global… Global N. America = 23% of Internet users in 2005; was 66% in 1995 S. Korea Broadband penetration of 70%+ - No. 1 in world China More Internet users < age of 30 than anywhere 7 …Internet Data Points: Communications… Broadband 179MM global subscribers (+45% Y/Y, CQ2); 57MM in Asia; 45MM in N. America Mobile 1.1T SMSs sent with $50B in revenue in 2004 (Informa 5/05); Messaging more emails sent in Japan via mobile than PC (DoCoMo 2005) 61MM registered Skype users (10/05) - fastest product ramp VoIP ever? Denmark VoIP minutes > landline voice minutes Tencent 16MM peak simultaneous Instant Message users, China, CQ2 8 …Internet Data Points: Content… 7.6B global searches (+74% Y/Y, 5/05); 384MM global unique Google visitors (+36%, 5/05) per comScore Personalization 40MM+ estimated My Yahoo! users Blogging 27% of US Internet users read blogs, 11/04 Yahoo! ~1.6B streaming video (music…) sessions (+100% Y/Y, CQ3) 695MM cumulative iTunes as of 9/05; 7MM iPods sold in Digital Media CQ3:05 (+220% Y/Y); 1MM videos sold in 20 days (10/05) $3B annualized ringtone sales (Informa 5/05) - vs. $495MM Ringtones cumulative iTunes sales (7/05) 9 …Internet Data Points: Payments PayPal 87MM accounts (+53% Y/Y, CQ3); 25MM users (+41% Y/Y) Mobile Payments 4MM+ NTT DoCoMo wallet phone users (CQ1) in Japan 10 Top 5 Global Internet Market Cap Leaders Google + Yahoo! + eBay + Yahoo! Japan + Amazon.com • $ 2B = market value - pre-2000 IPO • $178B = market value - Nasdaq peak – 3/10/00 • $ 32B = market value - Nasdaq trough – 10/9/02 • $273B = market value - 10/28/05 For Google we include $100MM in post-money valuation 11 Significant Infrastructure Builds… Capital Expenditures (US$ in Millions) C2003 C2004 C2005E Google $177 $319 $796 Y/Y 375% 80% 150% Yahoo! $117 $246 $405 Y/Y 128% 109% 65% eBay (1) $365 $293 $381 Y/Y 163% (20%) 30% Amazon.com $46 $89 $200 Y/Y 17% 94% 124% Source: Company filings, Morgan Stanley Research. Figures exclude capital expenditures from acquired companies. (1) C2003 includes $125.1MM purchase of additional office space. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. 12 …Significant Infrastructure Builds To organize all the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. -Google’s Mission Statement 13 Communications Changing / Being Changed 1975 2005 Mobile VoIP IM Pace of innovation across communication devices, services and networks continues to rise Landline Phone Email Blogs 14 Communications = 44% (& Rising) of US Online Usage 100% 90 80 70 60 50 Communications 40 30 20 % of Time Spent on Activity % of Time Spent 10 0 Email IM Voice Browsing / Discussion / Search Other Chat Source: comScore Media Metrix, based on average minutes per visitor by category (8/05). Browsing / Other includes general web-surfing activity not listed in other categories, including anything from news sites (cnn.com) to retail (Amazon.com) to job sites. 15 Hierarchy of Needs? 1943 - Maslow 2005 - ? ;) Self- actualization Internet / Mobile Phone Esteem Belonging Shelter Safety Food / Water Physiological Created for discussion purposes and perhaps a bit of humor. Not intended to discredit Maslow’s hierarchy of needs which we believe to be accurate. 16 Global Users / Innovation Internet Users – 1B Mobile Subscribers – 2B C2005E (1) C2005E (2) N. America N. America 11% South 23% South America America 11% 5% Europe 19% Europe 24% ROW 12% Asia ROW Pacific 18% 36% Asia Pacific 41% (1) Source: Morgan Stanley Research. (2) Source: Morgan Stanley Communications Equipment Research: Scott Coleman, John Marchetti. 17 In / Entering Major Computing Cycles 4 major computing cycles over past 50 years Mainframe Æ Minicomputer Æ PC Æ PC Internet (Narrowband) In / entering 2 most profound cycles ever PC Internet (Broadband) Æ Mobile Internet Why now? 1) Broadband becoming pervasive 2) Internet-enabled mobile devices becoming pervasive - in effect, becoming small / functional computers 3) Global technology innovation may be at all time high 18 Broadband Becoming Pervasive 80 60% 70 Broadband Ramp in 50% 60 25-30% Penetration Sweet Spot… 40% 50 40 30% (MM) 30 20% 20 10% 10 US Residential Broadband Households Households Broadband Residential US 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E US Residential Broadband Households % of Total US Households Morgan Stanley Research. 19 Mobile Broadband in Early Stages Global 2.5G / 3G Penetration 1,600 60% 1,400 50% 1,200 40% 1,000 800 30% 600 20% Subscribers (MM) 400 10% % of Total Wireless Subscribers 200 0 0% 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2.5G Subscribers 3G Subscribers % 2.5G Penetration % 3G Penetration Source: Morgan Stanley Telecom, Internet Research. 20 Broadband vs. Mobile Internet Revenue Composition? Top 10 Internet Companies - Revenue Composition Revenue Composition - Mobile Internet CQ2 Annualized - $28B C2005E - $19B Payments 3% Music & Video Personalization (1) 4% Games 35% 10% Advertising Gambling 36% 1% Search / 411 Commerce 16% Other Info & 61% Infotainment Enterprise 24% Services 10% Source: Left Chart - Morgan Stanley Research estimates: includes revenue from Google, eBay, Yahoo!, Yahoo! Japan, Amazon.com, T-Online, InterActive, Time Warner (AOL only), Microsoft (MSN only), and Rakuten. Right Chart – Morgan Stanley Research estimates, Global Data. Informa (5/05), Ovum (5/05). (1) Personalization includes ringtones, wallpapers, and screensavers. If SMS / MMS were added to Mobile Internet—it would add $55B to total revenue and would account for 74% of total revenue. 21 Global Internet Thesis 10-15% user growth 20-30% usage growth 30%+ monetization growth 22 China Internet 23 China Internet China Internet Potential to reach more Most consumers + Chinese consumers than = Size (1.3B) other industries Fastest growing economy Fastest growing (19x GDP expansion + industry in China = Growth over past 20 years) 24 -1- Growing Faster than Other Markets…with More Potential • China leads world in mobile subscribers • China ranks No. 2 in Internet users • More Internet users under the age of 30 than any other country • Growth drivers for Chinese Internet have been / are robust 25 -2- China Internet is Mobile vs. PC-Centric Mobile Users Internet Users Mobile Phone to Installed PCs Country (MM) (MM) Internet User Ratio(MM) China 363 100 3.6:1 53 US 177 211 0.8:1 207 Japan 88 78 1.1:1 55 Germany 69 51 1.4:1 39 UK 54 37 1.5:1 26 Italy 54 32 1.7:1 16 S. Korea 37 32 1.2:1 27 Euromonitor, CNNIC, World Bank, Morgan Stanley Research (July 2005) 26 -3- Internet Helps Bring About Cultural Evolution Pre-Internet Age Post-Internet Age Status Gaping holes Filling in holes Information Regulated (Top 10 Newspapers all Portals (Sina, Sohu)- alternative state-owned) news sources Only 8 model movies during the New entertainment formats, such Entertainment Cultural Revolution as Online Gaming (Shanda, NetEase) Interaction Deficient due to one-child policy Instant messaging (Tencent) and MVAS (TOM Online, Sina) offer connectivity Source: Morgan Stanley Research. 27 -4- Foreign Interests Accelerating Foreign Entrants Local Targets Dates Transaction Type Market Position of Target eBay EachNet Jul-03 Acquisition No. 1 in online auction Yahoo! 3721.com Nov-03 Acquisition No. 2 in paid search Google Baidu Jun-04 Bought 3% Stake No. 1 in paid search InterActive eLong Jul-04 Bought 30% Stake No. 2 in online traveling Amazon.com Joyo Aug-04 Acquisition Leading ecommerce store Monster.com ChinaHR Feb-05 Bought 40% Stake No. 2 in online recruiting Yahoo! Alibaba Aug-05 Bought 40% Stake No. 1 in B2B marketplace Source: Morgan Stanley Research (Market positions were based on our estimates on the dates of transactions) 28 -5- Mergers and Acquisitions Active Vertical integration ‘Hostile’ share purchase ‘Poison Pill’ Shanda vs. Sina Sina vs. Shanda • TOM Online bought Puccini • Sina acquired Memestar & Crillion • Sohu acquired ChinaRen, Focus.net, and 17173.com Horizontal China Internet • Shanda purchased PC game/ mobile game/ casual game integration companies 29 -6- A League of Big Players Industry Companies Industry Rank Market Share Online Advertising Sina No. 1 30% Sohu No. 2 25% Total share = 55% of industry rev Online Gaming Shanda No. 1 39% NetEase No. 2 18% Total share = 58% of industry rev MVAS Sina No.1 16% Tom Online No. 2 15% Tencent No. 3 10% Total share = 41% of industry rev Instant Messaging (IM) Tencent No.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • On-Premise Vs. Cloud
    WHITEPAPER Content Management for Mobile Devices: Smartphones, Use Cases and Best Practices in a Mobile-Centric World JULY 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Mobile-Delivered Content Is Growing Globally 3 Start with Smartphones 4 Challenges and Opportunities 5 Use Cases Drive Mobile Content Strategy 6 Overcoming Barriers To Implementation 7 Best Practices: Build For Success 8 Conclusions 9 About CrownPeak 10 2 Executive Summary In an environment where mobile web traffic tripled last year and mobile data users are expected to outpace desktop users by next year, the need for mobile-optimized content management is clear. Yet implementing content management systems has traditionally been a slow and resource-intensive process. One emerging strategy for successfully deploying mobile content is to focus on optimizing for smartphones, which offer both the largest and most stable mobile development platform. This approach has already proven successful in a number of market sectors and offers the advantages of simplicity, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness. A second strategy has been to leverage the new generation of Web Content Management systems. These systems combine breakthroughs in productivity with the ability to natively optimize content for mobile delivery, they work seamlessly with legacy systems, and typically do not require IT resources. The result is a significantly lower implementation and operation costs when compared to traditional content management solutions. Web Content Management (WCM) systems have traditionally been both time- and cost-intensive, requiring significant resources from expert developers and in- house IT. This paper recommends adoption of such a smartphone-centric strategy with a next-generation WCM to create a flexible, scalable, interoperable mobile content management solution, without impacting legacy systems or compromising data integrity.
    [Show full text]
  • Internet Economy 25 Years After .Com
    THE INTERNET ECONOMY 25 YEARS AFTER .COM TRANSFORMING COMMERCE & LIFE March 2010 25Robert D. Atkinson, Stephen J. Ezell, Scott M. Andes, Daniel D. Castro, and Richard Bennett THE INTERNET ECONOMY 25 YEARS AFTER .COM TRANSFORMING COMMERCE & LIFE March 2010 Robert D. Atkinson, Stephen J. Ezell, Scott M. Andes, Daniel D. Castro, and Richard Bennett The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation I Ac KNOW L EDGEMEN T S The authors would like to thank the following individuals for providing input to the report: Monique Martineau, Lisa Mendelow, and Stephen Norton. Any errors or omissions are the authors’ alone. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Dr. Robert D. Atkinson is President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Stephen J. Ezell is a Senior Analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Scott M. Andes is a Research Analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Daniel D. Castro is a Senior Analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Richard Bennett is a Research Fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. ABOUT THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION FOUNDATION The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) is a Washington, DC-based think tank at the cutting edge of designing innovation policies and exploring how advances in technology will create new economic opportunities to improve the quality of life. Non-profit, and non-partisan, we offer pragmatic ideas that break free of economic philosophies born in eras long before the first punch card computer and well before the rise of modern China and pervasive globalization. ITIF, founded in 2006, is dedicated to conceiving and promoting the new ways of thinking about technology-driven productivity, competitiveness, and globalization that the 21st century demands.
    [Show full text]
  • Freedom on the Net 2016
    FREEDOM ON THE NET 2016 China 2015 2016 Population: 1.371 billion Not Not Internet Freedom Status Internet Penetration 2015 (ITU): 50 percent Free Free Social Media/ICT Apps Blocked: Yes Obstacles to Access (0-25) 18 18 Political/Social Content Blocked: Yes Limits on Content (0-35) 30 30 Bloggers/ICT Users Arrested: Yes Violations of User Rights (0-40) 40 40 TOTAL* (0-100) 88 88 Press Freedom 2016 Status: Not Free * 0=most free, 100=least free Key Developments: June 2015 – May 2016 • A draft cybersecurity law could step up requirements for internet companies to store data in China, censor information, and shut down services for security reasons, under the aus- pices of the Cyberspace Administration of China (see Legal Environment). • An antiterrorism law passed in December 2015 requires technology companies to cooperate with authorities to decrypt data, and introduced content restrictions that could suppress legitimate speech (see Content Removal and Surveillance, Privacy, and Anonymity). • A criminal law amendment effective since November 2015 introduced penalties of up to seven years in prison for posting misinformation on social media (see Legal Environment). • Real-name registration requirements were tightened for internet users, with unregistered mobile phone accounts closed in September 2015, and app providers instructed to regis- ter and store user data in 2016 (see Surveillance, Privacy, and Anonymity). • Websites operated by the South China Morning Post, The Economist and Time magazine were among those newly blocked for reporting perceived as critical of President Xi Jin- ping (see Blocking and Filtering). www.freedomonthenet.org FREEDOM CHINA ON THE NET 2016 Introduction China was the world’s worst abuser of internet freedom in the 2016 Freedom on the Net survey for the second consecutive year.
    [Show full text]
  • Citron Stands Corrected … Qihu Is Not Mobi … Is It More Like China Mediaexpress (Ccme) ?
    CITRON STANDS CORRECTED … QIHU IS NOT MOBI … IS IT MORE LIKE CHINA MEDIAEXPRESS (CCME) ? For those of you who read part 1 of Citron’s analysis on Qihoo, (NASDAQ:QIHU), we compared the company to MOBI as operating a web 1.0 business that is presently misunderstood by the marketplace. From the company's rebuttal, we conclude Qihoo is not so much like MOBI…. it might be a lot more like China MediaExpress (CCME). Our intended part 2 on QIHU was planned to focus on the naïve analyst commentary and the dubious history of management. But all that has become a sideshow to what our research found, so hold on to your seat and call your class action attorney. While Qihoo does in fact have penetration in the free anti-virus software business — that we do not question — the rest of the business seems to be nothing more than an illusion that defies validation by any third party source. Either Qihoo has some magic pill that neither Citron nor the major players in the China internet space knows about, or this is a FRAUD. There are a number of chilling parallels to CCME in QIHU's current business model. Citron suggests that investors and analysts — especially those who are quick to proclaim "Citron doesn't get it" — read this report with an open mind. Foundation The main criticism of the initial Citron report was that we did not understand Qihoo's business model and therefore we could not draw a comparative valuation to any other business. The analysts describe Qihoo as a "master aggregator".
    [Show full text]
  • SINA CORPORATION (Exact Name of Registrant As Specified in Its Charter)
    Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 20-F o REGISTRATION STATEMENT PURSUANT TO SECTION 12(b) OR (g) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR þ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 OR o TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to OR o SHELL COMPANY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of event requiring this shell company report Commission file number 000-30698 SINA CORPORATION (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter) Cayman Islands (Jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 37F, Jin Mao Tower 88 Century Boulevard, Pudong Shanghai 200121, China (Address of principal executive offices) Contact Person: Chief Financial Officer Phone: +8610 8262 8888 Facsimile: +8610 8260 7166 Address: 20/F Beijing Ideal International Plaza No. 58 Northwest 4th Ring Road Haidian District, Beijing, 100080, People's Republic of China (name, telephone, e-mail and/or facsimile number and address of company contact person) Securities registered or to be registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act. Title of Each Class Name of Each Exchange on Which Registered Ordinary Shares, $0.133 par value The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC Ordinary Shares Purchase Rights (NASDAQ Global Select Market) Securities registered or to be registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act. Not Applicable (Title of Class) Securities for which there is a reporting obligation pursuant to Section 15(d) of the Act.
    [Show full text]
  • Amazon.Com, Inc. Securities Litigation 01-CV-00358-Consolidated
    Case 2:01-cv-00358-RSL Document 30 Filed 10/05/01 Page 1 of 215 1 THE HONORABLE ROBERT S. LASNIK 2 3 4 5 6 vi 7 øA1.S Al OUT 8 9 UNITE STAThS15iSTRICT COURT WESTERN DISTRICT OF WASHINGTON 10 AT SEATTLE 11 MAXiNE MARCUS, et al., On Behalf of Master File No. C-01-0358-L Themselves and All Others Similarly Situated, CLASS ACTION 12 Plaintiffs, CONSOLIDATED COMPLAINT FOR 13 VS. VIOLATION OF THE SECURITIES 14 EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 AMAZON COM, INC., JEFFREY P. BEZOS, 15 WARREN C. JENSON, JOSEPH GALLI, JR., THOMAS A. ALBERG, L. JOHN DOERR, 16 MARK J BRITTO, JOEL R. SPIEGEL, SCOTT D. COOK, JOY D. COVEY, 17 'RICHARD L. DALZELL, JOHN D. RISHER, KAVITARK R. SHRIRAM, PATRICIA Q. 18 STONESIFER, JIMMY WRIGHT, ICELYN J. BRANNON, MARY E. ENGSTROM, 19 KLEJNER PERKINS CAUF1ELD & BYERS, MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER, 20 CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON, MARY MEEKER, JAMIE KIGGEN and USE BUYER, 21 Defendants. 22 In re AMAZON.COM, INC. SECURITIES 23 LITIGATION 24 This Document Relates To: 25 ALL ACTIONS 26 11111111 II 1111111111 11111 III III liii 1111111111111 111111 Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Le955 600 West Broadway, Suite 18 0 111111 11111 11111 liii III III 11111 11111111 San Diego, CA 92191 CV 01-00358 #00000030 TeIephone 619/231-058 Fax: 619/2j.23 Case 2:01-cv-00358-RSL Document 30 Filed 10/05/01 Page 2 of 215 TA L TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 Page 3 4 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW I 5 JURISDICTION AND VENUE .............................36 6 THE PARTIES ...........................
    [Show full text]
  • MARK S. THOMSON, on Behalf of Himself: No
    IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK ___________________________________ MARK S. THOMSON, on behalf of himself: No. ___________________ and all others similarly situated, : : CLASS ACTION COMPLAINT Plaintiff, : FOR VIOLATIONS OF THE : FEDERAL SECURITIES LAWS v. : : MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER : & CO. and MARY MEEKER, : : Defendants. : JURY TRIAL DEMANDED ___________________________________ : Plaintiff, by his undersigned attorneys, individually and on behalf of the Class described below, upon actual knowledge with respect to the allegations related to plaintiff’s purchase of the common stock of Amazon.com, Inc. (“Amazon” or the “Company”), and upon information and belief with respect to the remaining allegations, based upon, inter alia, the investigation of plaintiff’s counsel, which included, among other things, a review of public statements made by defendants and their employees, Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) filings, and press releases and media reports, brings this Complaint (the “Complaint”) against defendants named herein, and alleges as follows: SUMMARY OF THE ACTION 1. In October 1999, Fortune named defendant Mary Meeker (“Meeker) the third most powerful woman in business, commenting, “[h]er brave bets – AOL in ‘93, Netscape in ‘95, e-commerce in ‘97, business to business in ‘99 – have earned her eight “ten-baggers”, stocks that have risen tenfold. Morgan Stanley’s “We’ve got Mary” pitch to clients has been key to its prominence in Internet financing. Her power is awesome: If she ever says “Hold Amazon.com”, Internet investors will lose billions.” 2. Fortune almost got it right. Investors did lose billions, but not because Meeker said “Hold Amazon.com”. Rather, investors were damaged by Meeker’s false and misleading statements encouraging investors to continue buying shares of Amazon.
    [Show full text]
  • Securities Analysts: Why These Gatekeepers Abandoned Their Post
    Securities Analysts: Why These Gatekeepers Abandoned Their Post DAVID J. LABHART* TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1037 I. WHAT CAUSED SELL-SIDE ANALYSTS TO MISS ENRON? ................. .. ... .. .. .. .. 1040 A. The Absence of Deterrencefrom Third Party Liability ........................... 1041 B. Confl icts of Interest ................................................................................. 1043 1. Investment Banking Conflicts .......................................................... 1044 2. Informational Conflicts ..................................................................... 1046 3. Lack of Incentive .............................................................................. 104 7 II. CURRENT REGULATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ANALYST INCENTIVES ......... 1051 A . Regulation FD ......................................................................................... 1052 B. Regulation A C ......................................................................................... 1054 C. Self-Regulatory Organizationsand the Sarbanes-Oxley Act ................... 1055 D . The Global Settlem ent ............................................................................. 1057 III. SUGGESTED REGULATIONS ............................................................................. 1058 C ONCLUSION ........................................................................................................1061 INTRODUCTION In
    [Show full text]
  • Internet Trends 2008
    Internet Trends 2008 Mary Meeker November 5 @ Web 2.0 Summit Technology / Internet Trends November 5, 2008 Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco [email protected] / www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Outline • Economy 1. Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 2. Technology & Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth • Technology / Internet 1. Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth 2. Mobile – Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating 3. Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption • Closing Thoughts 1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time… 2 Economy 1) Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 1 year? 5 years? 3 Roots of Economic Challenge? 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership + Declining Interest / Savings Rates U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Internet Trends 2019
    Internet Trends 201 Mary Meeker June 11 @ Code 2019 INTERNET TRENDS 2019 Mary Meeker June 11 @ Code 2019 bondcap.com/report/it19 Internet Trends 2019 1) Users 2) E-Commerce + Advertising 3) Usage… 4) Freemium Business Models 5) Data Growth 6) …Usage 7) Work 8) Education 9) Immigration + USA Inc. 10) Healthcare 11) China (Provided by Hillhouse Capital) 2 Internet Trends 2019 Thanks Bond Partners Michael Brogan & Ansel Parikh helped steer ideas & did a lot of heavy lifting. Noah Knauf, Collin Ebert, Jesse Ellingworth, Everett Randle, Nancy Xiao, Daegwon Chae, Paul Vronsky & Juliet de Baubigny also dug in & were more than on call with help. Hillhouse Capital Liang Wu & colleagues’ contribution of the China section provides an overview of the world’s largest market of Internet users. Participants in Evolution of Internet Connectivity From creators to consumers who keep us on our toes 24x7 & the people who directly help us prepare the report. And, Kara & team, thanks for continuing to do what you do so well. 3 Internet Trends 2019 Context… We use data to tell stories of business-related trends we focus on. We hope others take the ideas, build on them & make them better. At 3.8B, the number of Internet users comprises more than half the world’s population. When markets reach mainstream, new growth is harder to find as evinced by declining new smartphone shipments in 2018. While E-Commerce continues to gain share vs. physical retail, growth rates are slowing. While Internet advertising growth is solid & innovation is healthy, there are areas where customer acquisition costs may be rising to unsustainable levels.
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring Electronic Commerce”, OECD Digital Economy Papers, No
    Please cite this paper as: OECD (1998-11-03), “Measuring Electronic Commerce”, OECD Digital Economy Papers, No. 39, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/236645656805 OECD Digital Economy Papers No. 39 Measuring Electronic Commerce OECD Unclassified OCDE/GD(97)185 COMMITTEE FOR INFORMATION, COMPUTER AND COMMUNICATIONS POLICY MEASURING ELECTRONIC COMMERCE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Paris 58791 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format Copyright OECD, 1997 Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be made to: Head of Publications Services, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France 2 MAIN POINTS The purpose of this report is to begin to outline the issues associated with measuring electronic commerce, propose an initial framework and begin to compare some of the disparate data on the subject so as to form a mosaic which gives a clearer quantitative picture of the current status and future direction of electronic commerce. From this position a better sense of the relative importance of the various policy issues can be obtained. Defining and measuring Electronic Commerce Measuring electronic commerce is difficult for a number of reasons including defining what constitutes electronic commerce, the speed of its growth and evolution and the fact that in many cases firms conduct both electronic commerce and traditional commerce simultaneously. Quantifying the value associated with electronic commerce activities can be challenging since many of its key qualities -- convenience, variety and ease of access to information -- are difficult to measure.
    [Show full text]
  • The Recovery in Wireless Is Visible Aaron M
    Industry Note July 30, 2004 Safa Rashtchy, Senior Research Analyst Technology 650 838-1347, [email protected] The Recovery In Wireless Is Visible Aaron M. Kessler, Sr Research Analyst 650 838-1434, [email protected] KEY POINTS: The China Analyst is our weekly report on the Chinese Internet and technology Reason for Report: market. Our commentaries are based on data we collect daily in China using our Industry Overview staff and consultants as well as industry contacts in Mainland China and Hong Related Companies: Kong. Our goal is not to summarize news, but to analyze the most important CTRP 34.70 developments in Internet, online games, wireless services, economy, technology, CHINA 6.73 consumer behavior, corporate activities, and government regulations, and to LTON 11.09 discuss how these trends impact both our existing coverage companies in China as NTES 37.59 well as the broader, long-term development of the Chinese Internet market . SINA 28.48 SOHU 19.97 SNDA 17.35 Summary of Internet TOMO 13.82 Activity in China (MM) Jun-04 Jan-04 Jun-03 Y/Y % Total active users 87 80 68 28% Dial-up subscribers 52 49 47 11% ISDN subscribers 6 6 5 20% ADSL subscribers 31 17 10 210% Source:China Internet Network Information Center, Piper Jaffray China Research Summary of Telecom Activity in China (MM) Jun-04 May-04 Jun-03 M/M % Y/Y % Fixed line subscribers 295 290 238 1.7% 24% Penetration rate 24% 21% 19% - - Mobile users 305 301 234 1.3% 30% Penetration rate 24% 21% 18% - - Source: Ministry of Information Industry of China, Piper Jaffray China Research Industry Commentary – The recovery in wireless is visible.
    [Show full text]