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The Recovery in Wireless Is Visible Aaron M Industry Note July 30, 2004 Safa Rashtchy, Senior Research Analyst Technology 650 838-1347, [email protected] The Recovery In Wireless Is Visible Aaron M. Kessler, Sr Research Analyst 650 838-1434, [email protected] KEY POINTS: The China Analyst is our weekly report on the Chinese Internet and technology Reason for Report: market. Our commentaries are based on data we collect daily in China using our Industry Overview staff and consultants as well as industry contacts in Mainland China and Hong Related Companies: Kong. Our goal is not to summarize news, but to analyze the most important CTRP 34.70 developments in Internet, online games, wireless services, economy, technology, CHINA 6.73 consumer behavior, corporate activities, and government regulations, and to LTON 11.09 discuss how these trends impact both our existing coverage companies in China as NTES 37.59 well as the broader, long-term development of the Chinese Internet market . SINA 28.48 SOHU 19.97 SNDA 17.35 Summary of Internet TOMO 13.82 Activity in China (MM) Jun-04 Jan-04 Jun-03 Y/Y % Total active users 87 80 68 28% Dial-up subscribers 52 49 47 11% ISDN subscribers 6 6 5 20% ADSL subscribers 31 17 10 210% Source:China Internet Network Information Center, Piper Jaffray China Research Summary of Telecom Activity in China (MM) Jun-04 May-04 Jun-03 M/M % Y/Y % Fixed line subscribers 295 290 238 1.7% 24% Penetration rate 24% 21% 19% - - Mobile users 305 301 234 1.3% 30% Penetration rate 24% 21% 18% - - Source: Ministry of Information Industry of China, Piper Jaffray China Research Industry Commentary – The recovery in wireless is visible. China Stocks This Week - A look at the sector and company-specific performance for the week. Company Updates - Our latest thoughts on Sina, Sohu, NetEase, Ctrip, Shanda, Tom Online, and LinkTone. Piper Jaffray China Internet Index (PJCII) Index Last Week YTD LTM PJ China Internet Index -5.9% -29.5% -41.0% NASDAQ -0.9% -7.2% 7.3% Risks - Include the volatility of wireless revenues, investor sentiment toward a young and new sector, the potential of government intervention, and the potential of decline or volatility of economic growth. The unique corporate structure of the Chinese Internet companies also poses additional risk factors for investors. Piper Jaffray & Co. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions.This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst Certification, found on pages 5 - 7 of this report or at the following site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures. Customers of Piper Jaffray in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research by visiting piperjaffray.com or can call 800 747-5128 to request a copy of this research. Page 1 of 7 Industry Note July 30, 2004 Industry Commentary The Recovery In Wireless Is Visible. With three of the largest Chinese wireless players having reported, our worst fears have been eased and while the level of SMS decline is significant, the overall wireless market is still viable and growing. With the wireless revenue pattern coming into focus more, we encourage investors to build positions in the Chinese names, given their heavy sell off over the past two months which has made their valuations very attractive, in our opinion. The volatility in the Chinese stocks have not just in large part been due to the decline of SMS, but the confusing market condition. The confounding factor is that the there is no uniformity in the dynamics of SMS decline: the entire market is certainly not declining but still growing, and there are a number of players who, at worst, will see flat SMS revenues while on the other extreme, companies like NetEase may see a 40% sequential decline in Q2 (as company preannounced) with additional reduction coming in Q3 and Q4. This is not a typical market behavior where a given dynamic typically impacts most players more or less at the same level, with minor variations. What makes the SMS market more complicated is that it is built on layers: layers of providers (SPs) coming at various stages, with the earliest ones being the portals in terms of their customer acquisition methods, others with offline marketing focus, and finally now those with handset deals; layers of new players with better and more engaging products that have had much lower churn, and layers of companies with varying degree of aggressive marketing policies, which see different levels of inactive users or billing issues. Our take on the SMS market is that there is no one answer for a given company to fix its problems and maintain its share of the SMS market. The best strategy revolves around two key issues: content and customer acquisition strategies. We are convinced that there is a viable and strong demand for the right SMS services from consumers and, more importantly, SMS will survive and will be a crucial component of getting consumers into new services: SMS is effectively the e-mail of the wireless world and many services can be introduced or signed up through an SMS message. But SMS has to have engaging and interesting content to keep subscribers on, and we believe some of the more entertainment-oriented and interactive type of content produced by companies such as Linktone, Tom Online and others is the key for success. Second and more importantly, the subscriber acquisition strategy for the SPs has to evolve into a multi-faceted approach rather than a single focus – there is no one approach that is the ultimate solution. Offline co-marketing with mobile operators, offline direct advertising, online marketing, and event and celebrity driven promotions are all needed to succeed in a sustainable subscriber acquisition strategy. This is crucial now since the mobile operators are highly focused on taking control of the subscription process on the new services, especially on WAP where all the SP services go through the mobile operators. As such, it is of strategic value for the SPs to maintain a solid brand name and subscriber relationship through engaging SMS and other services. The background described above should explain to some degree why we see the various levels of declines in the SMS revenues. But the important development is that we believe Q3 will mark the lowest point of SMS declines and the clean up process and with the Q4 decline expected to be less than Q3, we should see stable SMS revenues for most players in 2005. Importantly, we have also been able to lower estimates on SMS to the level that we believe hold little risk. There is double advantage in these lower expectations: they are, of course, easier to meet but also for the portals, the impact of another possible miss will be far smaller: SMS should be less than 20% of Sohu's revenue, for example, down from 49% in Q1 of this year. With the SMS decline pattern better understood, we are also gaining more confidence on the growth path of 2.5g and IVR services, which has shown very promising growth levels. While still new and small, we believe these new services can carry the growth of the wireless segment in 2005. Industry News Shanda Buys Stake In Largest PC Game Platform In China. On July 29, Shanda Interactive announced that it has signed an agreement to purchase a minority stake in Haofang, a privately-owned company that develops and operates the largest network PC game platform in China. Additionally, Shanda will acquire a majority interest in Haofang in 2006. Haofang had more than 320,000 peak concurrent users and 200,000 average concurrent users in July 2004. We believe this a good strategic move for Shanda as it enables it to add an additional gaming segment to its current roster of MMORPG's and casual games as well as enables Shanda to further penetrate the home-based market, which is underpenetrated today but is showing strong growth. Yahoo! China Outsources IT Content From ChinaByte. ChinaByte is one of the leading IT portals in China. In the partnership, Yahoo! China will outsource IT news and commentaries from ChinaByte and ChinaByte will be entitled to share advertising revenues generated on Yahoo! IT channel. Prior to this partnership, Sina, Sohu, NetEase, and Tom Online are all clients of ChinaByte for its exclusive news and commentaries. The revenue sharing model might evolve into fee-based customer relationship in the future. Yahoo! China has been improving its local presence by launching China-specific contents and applications, i.e., Yahoo! Messenger 6.0 (Simplified Chinese) capable of wireless chatting (looking up to Tencent), Yisou Search (looking up to Baidu) and 1pai Auction (I Piper Jaffray & Co. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions.This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst Certification, found on pages 5 - 7 of this report or at the following site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
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