Citron Stands Corrected … Qihu Is Not Mobi … Is It More Like China Mediaexpress (Ccme) ?
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CITRON STANDS CORRECTED … QIHU IS NOT MOBI … IS IT MORE LIKE CHINA MEDIAEXPRESS (CCME) ? For those of you who read part 1 of Citron’s analysis on Qihoo, (NASDAQ:QIHU), we compared the company to MOBI as operating a web 1.0 business that is presently misunderstood by the marketplace. From the company's rebuttal, we conclude Qihoo is not so much like MOBI…. it might be a lot more like China MediaExpress (CCME). Our intended part 2 on QIHU was planned to focus on the naïve analyst commentary and the dubious history of management. But all that has become a sideshow to what our research found, so hold on to your seat and call your class action attorney. While Qihoo does in fact have penetration in the free anti-virus software business — that we do not question — the rest of the business seems to be nothing more than an illusion that defies validation by any third party source. Either Qihoo has some magic pill that neither Citron nor the major players in the China internet space knows about, or this is a FRAUD. There are a number of chilling parallels to CCME in QIHU's current business model. Citron suggests that investors and analysts — especially those who are quick to proclaim "Citron doesn't get it" — read this report with an open mind. Foundation The main criticism of the initial Citron report was that we did not understand Qihoo's business model and therefore we could not draw a comparative valuation to any other business. The analysts describe Qihoo as a "master aggregator". We get that. They say they generate a lot of web traffic. Business – n. dealings or transactions especially of an economic nature. Giving away free software is not a business…lets call that a hobby. A business generates revenue. If you don’t believe us, just read QIHU's prospectus: "In 2008 and 2009, we generated a substantial portion of our revenues from sales of third-party anti-virus software. In the second half of 2009, we started offering 360 Anti-Virus to users free of charge as we adopted the business model of offering free Internet and mobile security products to build up a large and loyal user base and generating revenues through providing Internet services, including online advertising and Internet value-added services." So advertising is how they generate their revenues, and that is consistent with their revenue mix disclosure last quarter. Revenues June 2011 Qtr Total $35.1 million USD Online advertising $26.8 million Internet value add $ 8.1 services (mostly million games authored by 3rdparties) The company states that they generate this advertising revenue by posting links through their portal site. Undifferentiated Business Model Qihu's homepage, shown below, resembles dozens or hundreds of other web directory / navigation sites which are very popular in China. Here are just a few: http://www.2345.com/ http://www.265.com/ http://www.1616.net/?www2 http://www.tao123.com/ (taobao) http://www.wu123.com/ http://www.0460.com/ http://www.91913.cn/ http://www.44244.com/default.html http://www.9991.com/ http://www.537.com/ http://www.5566.net/ http://www.zgwdq.com/ http://www.46.com/ http://www.176176.com/ http://www.155.com/ http://www.haokan123.com/ http://www.129139.com/ http://www.wndhw.com/ You can see they're all very similar, (English speakers can get a pretty good sense of these using Google translate) In fact there's a fierce battle for domain-brand identity. In Qihoo's case, their portal is hao.360.cn. It is nothao360.com or hao360.cn, which appear to belong to others. These sites typically focus on link traffic, not brand (display) advertising. Companies that pay for links on these are paying out of their advertising budgets … their online advertising budgets. Qihoo classifies this as "advertising revenue". Citron gets that … do you? Comparing to Baidu Some analysts and commentators have been comparing Qihoo to Baidu. This is fatally flawed logic. Baidu also operates a directory / portal (hao123.com), but it is such a small part of the business that they don't break out its revenues or costs separately. Baidu's primary business is search, which is proven to be a highly profitable business model — at least for the winner in a winner-take-all category. Breaking Down The Top Line Qihoo's pre-eminent revenue generator is their flagship portal and within that domain, their PSP's (users can personalize their own start page). Linked to that are their vertical niche portal pages. Together, these sites generate 100% of Qihoo's current revenue. Below is a screen shot of Qihoo's flagship revenue driver HAO.360.CN : There are appx 200 links on this page. But how much revenue is generated from this site, and who is paying what? We are supposed to believe that this site is generating over $40 million revenues this quarter, and further, is growing at a rate that outstrips all the major players in the China internet space, raising serious questions about its credibility. Below is a screenshot of the same site 21 months ago when it was generating less than $10 million per qtr in revenues: Feb 12, 2010 (QIHU revs of $9 million in that quarter) – http://web.archive.org/web/20100212202913/http://hao.360.cn/ And lastly the same page from early 2009, when it was generating only $3 mil a quarter in online revenues. http://web.archive.org/web/20090210050039/http://hao.360.cn/ A few less links, but essentially identical in structure and function. So exactly how did revenues increase 400% from last year and 1200% from two years ago? The quantity of links certainly hasn’t increased 400%. We have no verification that the traffic has increased anything near 400%. Have the ad rates gone up 400%? Or is this just a fraud?? For that matter, are there even verifiable ad rates for this page? Below is a list of advertisers on the front page of HAO.360 that we believe do not pay QIHOO one dime. Yahoo Mail NBA Hotmail (Microsoft) Amazon Vogue (Conde Nast magazine) Self (Conde Nast magazine) Further, of these well-known Chinese brands, some of whom directly compete with Qihoo for games or traffic, isn't there a serious business issue requiring disclosure as to how much they are paying for links? Ctrip QQ Mail Baidu China Mobile Sina (8 links) Sohu (6 links) Todou Netease Taobao (2 links) Youku (2 links) Tencent CNTV Dangdang Our favorite of the "advertisers" is West Point Military Academy ( Look in the "Military academies" section, left column, 4th row … http://translate.google.com/translate? hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=zh- CN&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://hao.360.cn/junshiguofang.html … Yep, that's it, … right next to the link to the "U. S. National Defense University". E-commerce aggregator Qihoo recently launched an "e-commerce aggregator page" which sounds exciting. OK, so let's look under the hood at this page : http://mall.360.cn/ It is filled with logos of global companies you will recognize : Nokia, Samsung, Motorola, Sony, Sharp, Giordano, Reebok, Converse, Puma, Nike, Lee and many others. Ask on the conference call how much revenue this page generates for the company. We did. Despite the lack of revenue, here's a selection of logos displayed on Qihoo's "mall" page: The creepy thing is this is exactly what CCME's strategy was. In order to convince investors that it was a huge advertising channel, it produced a small number of copies of a very glossy catalog filled with logos from top-name brands like Coach, Lexus, and Coca-Cola. Here are some screen shots from Citron's 3 favorite pages out of CCME's "Investor Presentation, October 2010": Qihoo’s other sites are the following 4 vertical portals, for group buying, video, games, mini games, and literature. They are merely aggregators and the company has told us that none of them except games represents more than 3% of revenues: Wan.360.cn – Games Tuan.360.cn – Group Buying Xiaoyouxi.360.cn – Minigames Xiaoshou.360.cn – Literature Competition An early sign to Citron that China Media Express was a fraud was simply the incredible pace that they were growing revenues and profits compared to their well-known competition. During the trailing twelve months, both SINA and SOHU have grown their top line revenue around 23%. Both companies have diversified revenue streams and a PROVEN internet footprint. During the same trailing twelve months we are supposed to believe that Qihoo has grown their revenue 400%? Yet, just like China Media Express… none of their pre- eminent competitors even consider them competition. Qihoo fancies themselves as competition for BIDU. Yet in its own filings, BIDU describes their competition as: " Google and Microsoft, and China- based Internet companies, such as Netease, Sohu, Tencent and Alibaba" SOHU, who recently launched a popular browser and who also sells games and lists their competition this way. “not limited to Sina Corporation (or Sina), Tencent Holdings Ltd. (or Tencent) and NetEase.com, Inc. (or NetEase), and vertical sites, such as YouKu.comInc. (or Youku), Tudou, Inc. (or Tudou), Ku6 Media CO., Ltd (or Ku6), Pacific Online Limited (or PConline),SouFun.comLimited (or SouFun), China Real Estate Information Corporation (or CRIC), and Bitauto Holdings Limited (or BitAuto). In addition, we compete with operators of leading global websites and Internet service providers, including Yahoo! Inc. (or Yahoo!), Microsoft Corporation (or Microsoft) and AOL Inc. " SINA, who describes themselves AS AN INTERNET PORTAL and fights for ad dollars as well, voluminously defines their competition as: Our competitors include existing or emerging PRC Internet portals as well as vertical websites competing in a specific niche such as automobile, finance and IT information.