Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling
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Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Traffic Modelling Report October 2015 Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report Document Control Sheet Project Title Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report Title Traffic Modelling Report Revision 2.0 Status Final Control Date 29/10/15 Record of Issue Issue Status Author Date Check Date Authorised Date 1.0 Draft EA/NSS 09/10/15 PR 09/10/15 PR 09/10/15 2.0 Final PR 29/10/15 PR 29/10/15 PR 29/10/15 Distribution Organisation Contact Copies Lincolnshire County Council Jonathan Wickham Electronic This Report is presented to Lincolnshire County Council in respect of Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling and may not be used or relied on by any other person or by the client in relation to any other matters not covered specifically by the scope of this Report. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary contained in the Report, Mouchel Limited working as Lincolnshire County Council Highways Alliance is obliged to exercise reasonable skill, care and diligence in the performance of the services required by Lincolnshire County Council and Mouchel Limited shall not be liable except to the extent that it has failed to exercise reasonable skill, care and diligence, and this report shall be read and construed accordingly. This Lincolnshire County Council Highways Alliance Report has been prepared by Mouchel Limited. No individual is personally liable in connection with the preparation of this Report. By receiving this Report and acting on it, the client or any other person accepts that no individual is personally liable whether in contract, tort, for breach of statutory duty or otherwise. i Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report Contents 1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 1 2 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 3 3 Proposed and Committed Developments ........................................................ 9 4 Highway Impacts: 2056 Scenario A ................................................................ 16 5 Highway Impacts: 2021 Scenario B ................................................................ 38 6 Highway Impacts: 2026 Scenario C ................................................................ 42 7 Highway Impacts: 2036 Scenario D ................................................................ 46 8 Highway Impacts: 2036 Scenario E ................................................................ 50 9 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................. 54 Appendix A – Boston Model Network Extension Local Model Validation Report Appendix B – BDR Traffic Generation (2056) Appendix C – TRICS Outputs ii Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report Table of Figures Figure 1-1 – Boston Distributor Road – Indicative Alignment ......................................................... 2 Figure 3-1 – Location of Committed and Proposed Developments ................................................ 9 Figure 4-1 – Boston Network Traffic Flow Difference 2056 DM v DS – AM ................................. 18 Figure 4-2 – Boston Town Centre Traffic Flow Difference 2056 DM v DS – AM .......................... 18 Figure 4-3 – Boston Network Traffic Flow Difference 2056 DM v DS – PM ................................. 19 Figure 4-4 – Boston Town Centre Traffic Flow Difference 2056 DM v DS – PM .......................... 19 Figure 4-5 – Select Link Analysis A16 Northbound AM ................................................................ 22 Figure 4-6 – Select Link Analysis A16 Southbound AM................................................................ 22 Figure 4-7 – Select Link Analysis A52 Eastbound AM .................................................................. 23 Figure 4-8 – Select Link Analysis A62 Westbound AM ................................................................. 23 Figure 4-9 – Select Link Analysis BDR Eastbound AM ................................................................. 24 Figure 4-10 – Select Link Analysis BDR Westbound AM .............................................................. 24 Figure 4-11 – Select Link Analysis BDR Northbound AM ............................................................. 25 Figure 4-12 – Select Link Analysis BDR Southbound AM ............................................................ 25 Figure 4-13 – Select Link Analysis BDR hospital inbound AM ..................................................... 26 Figure 4-14 – Select Link Analysis BDR hospital outbound AM ................................................... 26 Figure 4-15 – Select Link Analysis A16 Northbound PM .............................................................. 28 Figure 4-16 – Select Link Analysis A16 Southbound PM.............................................................. 28 Figure 4-17 – Select Link Analysis A52 Eastbound PM ................................................................ 29 Figure 4-18 – Select Link Analysis A52 Westbound PM ............................................................... 29 Figure 4-19 – Select Link Analysis BDR Eastbound PM ............................................................... 30 Figure 4-20 – Select Link Analysis BDR Westbound PM .............................................................. 30 Figure 4-21 – Select Link Analysis BDR Northbound PM ............................................................. 31 Figure 4-22 – Select Link Analysis BDR Southbound PM ............................................................ 31 Figure 4-23 – Select Link Analysis BDR hospital inbound PM ..................................................... 32 Figure 4-24 – Select Link Analysis BDR hospital outbound PM ................................................... 32 Figure 4-25 – Location of Junctions Used in VOC Analysis ......................................................... 34 Figure 5-1 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2021 DM v DS – AM ..................................... 39 Figure 5-2 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2021 DM v DS – AM ............................... 39 Figure 5-3 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2021 DM v DS – PM ..................................... 40 Figure 5-4 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2021 DM v DS – PM ............................... 40 Figure 6-1 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2026 DM v DS – AM ..................................... 43 Figure 6-2 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2026 DM v DS – AM ............................... 43 Figure 6-3 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2026 DM v DS – PM ..................................... 44 Figure 6-4 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2026 DM v DS – PM ............................... 44 Figure 7-1 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario D) DM v DS – AM ................ 47 Figure 7-2 - Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario D) DM v DS – AM .......... 47 Figure 7-3 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario D) DM v DS – PM ................ 48 Figure 7-4 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario D) DM v DS – PM .......... 48 Figure 8-1 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario E) DM v DS – AM ................ 51 Figure 8-2 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario E) DM v DS – AM .......... 51 Figure 8-3 – Boston network traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario E) DM v DS – PM ................ 52 Figure 8-4 – Boston town centre traffic flow difference 2036 (Scenario E) DM v DS – PM .......... 52 iii Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report Tables Table 2-1 – Growth Factors Summary – AM and PM Peak Hour ................................................... 6 Table 2-2 – LGV & HGV Traffic Growth Summary - NTM2013 ...................................................... 7 Table 3-1 – Residential Development Site Allocations from 2015 ................................................ 11 Table 3-2 – Employment Site Allocations from 2021 .................................................................... 13 Table 3-3 – Residential Trip Rate Summary ................................................................................. 14 Table 3-4 – Employment Trip Rate Summary ............................................................................... 15 Table 3-5 – Quadrant 1 Development Trip Rate Summary........................................................... 15 Table 3-6 – 2056 Vehicle Trip Generation .................................................................................... 15 Table 4-1 – Junctions Assessed ................................................................................................... 33 Table 4-2 – Maximum Volume Over Capacity (VOC) – 2056 ....................................................... 35 Table 4-3 – Journey Time – AM and PM Peak Hour (mm:ss) – 2056 DM & DS Scenario A ....... 37 Table 5-1 – Journey Time – AM and PM Peak Hour (mm:ss) – 2036 DM & DS Scenario B ....... 41 Table 6-1 – Journey Time – AM and PM Peak Hour (mm:ss) – 2036 DM & DS Scenario C ....... 45 Table 7-1 – Journey Time – AM and PM Peak Hour (mm:ss) – 2036 DM & DS Scenario D ....... 49 Table 8-1 - Journey Time – AM and PM Peak Hour (mm:ss) – 2036 DM & DS Scenario E ........ 53 iv Boston Distributor Road Traffic Modelling Report 1 Introduction Background Mouchel Consulting, working as part of Lincolnshire County Council Highways Alliance,