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Market Study 2016-2017

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Market Study 2016-2017 th annual 24COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET STUDY 2016-2017 NORTHEAST INDIANA CENTRAL INDIANA Montcalm Muskegon NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA Kent Ionia NORTHEAST INDIANA Ottawa NORTHWEST INDIANA Allegan Barry Eaton WEST MICHIGAN Van Buren Calhoun Kalamazoo Lake Michigan Cass St. Joseph Branch Berrien LaGrange Steuben St. Joseph Elkhart LaPorte Porter Noble DeKalb Lake Marshall Starke Kosciusko Whitley Allen Pulaski Fulton Newton Jasper Huntington Wabash White Cass Adams Wells Benton Miami Carroll Grant Blackford Howard Jay Warren Tippecanoe Clinton Tipton Delaware Madison Randolph Hamilton Fountain Montgomery Boone n Henry Wayne Marion Hancock Vermillio Parke Hendricks Putnam Rush Union Fayette Shelby Morgan Johnson Vigo Clay Franklin Owen Decatur Bartholomew Brown Monroe /company/bradley-company @bradley_company /bradleycompanyCRE @bradleycompany TABLE OF CONTENTS PRESIDENT’S LETTER RETAIL 02 12 INDUSTRIAL MULTI-HOUSING 05 16 OFFICE SERVICES & PROFESSIONALS 09 18 RESEARCH | ANALYSIS LAYOUT | DESIGN STEVEN HEATHERLY MICHELLE MOREY [email protected] [email protected] GAGE HUDAK JONATHAN KITCHENS [email protected] [email protected] LUCAS DEMEL KYLIE CURTIS [email protected] [email protected] PRESIDENT’S LETTER s a regional leader of commercial real estate services in the Midwest, we understand that critical market knowledge is foundational to the value we provide to our clients. AThis 24th Edition of our Market Study reflects the collective insights and experience of the growing team of skilled Bradley Company professionals. We first thank our sponsors, who are recognized in the back of this report, for helping deliver this 24th Edition that again provides in-depth analyses on the regions we serve throughout Indiana and Michigan. Within this report you will find market activity from several aspects of our business, which reflect the local, regional, and national economic landscape. While ew continually look for ways to enhance our insight into the regions we cover, we believe this study to be an invaluable tool for anyone with exposure to the commercial real estate industry. Our pursuit of excellence, to be the premier commercial real estate service provider in the Midwest, has led to the expansion of our geographic footprint as well as the evolution of our lines of business through the addition of talent. In 2016 we made significant strides to expand our presence in two leading Midwest markets, Indianapolis and Grand Rapids, where we have deepened our talent pool with many new, seasoned professionals in our brokerage and property management lines of business. These professionals bring a wealth of experience and technical expertise that augment our platform to meet an increasingly sophisticated set of client requirements as they seek to gain insights into real estate markets and best advantage their investor or occupier needs. With a presence in eight primary markets from West Michigan through North and Central Indiana, the Bradley Company platform is well positioned to serve the regions’ dynamic, economic growth. While on the surface 2017 is poised to be a year of improved, yet modest, growth in our markets, the current expansion of the US economy is in its seventh year, with forecasted GDP hovering just above 2%. Equity markets have been robust, with several indexes topping historic highs in recent quarters, as the labor market approaches a return to full employment. Aging demographics are playing in to skilled labor challenges in many sectors. The prospect of Federal tax and regulatory reform could unleash additional capacity, however, on the balance, a tempered climate for international trade could cool opportunities for economic expansion. The two recent Federal interest rate bumps of 25 basis points to reach a 1% total rate and two more increases anticipated in 2017 have spurred active real estate owners to either sell, or lock in low rates and convert from even lower floating rates. This is in direct correlation to what will be rising cap rates and, thus, shrinking real estate values. However, as real estate has been a favored asset class as a tangible investment and significant capital has been parked on the sidelines for this category, cap rates will likely not move up at a matched pace to interest rates, which will mean shrinking investment margins. This environment will require better management and will rely on a continued moderate supply creation environment. E-commerce continues to disrupt traditional retail practices, with total sales in 2016 estimated at nearly $400 billion, up about 15% year over year, far outpacing the 2.9% increase in overall retail sales. The implications for real estate in a mobile economy places demands on the need for additional warehouse facilities to serve growing logistics and distribution needs. Ironically, the competition from the online market has led many national retail anchors to reduce their physical footprint while online retailers, such as Amazon, have opened their first brick and mortar stores to strengthen their dominance. Across the country, population centers continue to trend toward urban density, which translates to an unprecedented volume of multi-family construction in the urban cores of major metropolitan centers as well as secondary and tertiary communities. Simultaneously, traditional suburban retail and office centers are being creatively redeveloped into mixed-use town centers that combine complimentary uses for residential, office, medical, retail, and entertainment uses in a pedestrian friendly format. The evolving consumer patterns and tenant requirements have driven a need for new mixed-use redevelopment construction. 2 PRESIDENT’S LETTER The industrial sector is performing extremely well, with market vacancies remaining at or near historically low levels in most markets, fueled by consumer products and e-commerce distribution as the largest demand drivers for industrial space in 2017. Growth in the manufacturing and goods-producing sectors will be areas to watch as the new presidential administration focuses to spur these fields. In 2015, the Indiana Economic Development Corporation launched the Regional Cities Initiative, a challenge to the State’s seven regions to compete for three $42 million place-making grants with a purpose to improve the quality of life in these communities by attracting new residents and investment to the state. The $126 million in collective, state, local, and private matching funds is poised to leverage over $2.1 billion in investment across the North Central, Northeast, and Southwest regions of the state. As much of this investment will occur in the form of new or rehabilitated real estate, the impact in the communities served by Bradley Company will be transformational. 2017 is poised to be a watershed year as many of the landmark projects spurred by the Regional Cities’ effort become open for business. In Central Indiana, 2016 was a historic year for the industrial market, where net absorption hit its highest total ever in the market. Downtown Indianapolis continued its growth trajectory, as evidenced by Salesforce expanding into the former Chase Tower building, occupying 250,000 square feet and renaming the building to Salesforce Tower. In North Central Indiana, the RV industry continues to pave the way for economic growth. RV shipments hit their highest total in 40 years, ending 2016 with 430,691 total units shipped with momentum continuing throughout 2017 and shipments expected to total 438,000 units. In Northwest Indiana, the region’s economic growth is expected to increase and with the South Shore Commuter Rail line approving a $1 billion capital plan that outlines improvements over the next five years to increase capacity, expedite travel times and expand and renew the fleet. The economic impact of these upgrades are expected to be over $2 billion annually, once completed. For Northeast Indiana, Downtown Fort Wayne has been the focus of regional market attention. Projects such asthe Skyline Tower and Cityscape Flats mark the first significant residential projects developed in the past five years for the downtown market. The new riverfront development, combined with the proposed $100 million arena, are expected to add new energy to the downtown and surrounding areas. West Michigan markets continue to see companies making large capital investments. Pfizer and Stryker are investing over $100 million in their campuses, while the largest data center in the eastern United States, Supernap, continues its $5 billion campus at the site of the former Steelcase Pyramid building in Grand Rapids. As we delve much deeper in to the statistics and facts of our markets herein, we hope you find our 24th edition useful and beneficial in your everyday decisions. Should you wish to further engage in any of our data and information contained herein, feel free to contact us. Bradley Company’s team of professionals look forward to a prosperous growth year for all! Warm regards, Bradley J. Toothaker, CPM, SIOR President & CEO 3 NORTHEAST INDIANA While the Northeast Indiana region consists of several counties, Allen County is the regional economic hub with the City of Fort Wayne driving much of the regional economy. With a population of over 260,000 people, Fort Wayne is the second largest city in Indiana. The downtown area is experiencing significant regentrification, due in large part to Northeast Indiana Regional Partnerships Vision 2020 initiative and the Regional Cities Initiative. LaGrange St. Joseph Steuben Elkhart Marshall
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