VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY Jolita Visockaitė the IMPLICATIONS of the UKRAINE CRISIS to the US-LITHUANIAN RELATIONS Master Thesi
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Jolita Visockaitė THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS TO THE US-LITHUANIAN RELATIONS Master Thesis Diplomacy and International Relations Study Programme, State Code 62402S104 Political Science Study Field Supervisor: Dr. Gerda Jakštaitė (Degree, Name, Surname) (Signature) (Date) Defended: Prof. Dr. Šarūnas Liekis (PMDF Dean) (Signature) (Date) Kaunas, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY……………………………………………………………………………………………...1 SANTRAUKA (in Lithuanian)…………………………………………………………………………..2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS……………………………………………………………………………3 LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………………..4 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………………….5 1. CLASSICAL REALISM INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY…………………………….10 1.1. Roots of Realism……………………………………………………………………………10 1.2. Twentieth Century Classical Realism………………………………………………………13 1.2.1 Edward Hallett Carr……………………………………………………………….13 1.2.2. Hans Morgenthau………………………………………………………………...15 2. FACTORS INFLUENCING US-LITHUANIAN RELATIONS…………………………………….19 2.1. Geopolitical-Political Factors………………………………………………………………20 2.2. Current Security Challenges and Military factors…………………………………………..22 3. US-LITHUANIAN RELATIONS BEFORE UKRAINE CRISIS……………………………………24 3.1. US Official Rhetoric about Lithuania (and Baltics) before Ukraine Crisis………………….24 3.1.1. Perception of Lithuania (and Baltics)……………………………………………..25 3.1.2. US Interests in Lithuania (and Baltics)……………………………………………27 3.1.3. Declared Foreign Policy Instruments by the US………………………………….28 3.1.4. Russian Factor in US-Lithuanian (Baltic) Relations……………………………...30 3.2. US Foreign Policy Practice with Lithuania before Ukraine Crisis………………………….31 3.2.1. Political-Diplomatic Level……………………………………………………….31 3.2.2. Security-Military Level…………………………………………………………..35 3.2.3. Economic Level…………………………………………………………………..41 4. OFFICIAL US RHETORIC ABOUT LITHUANIA (AND BALTICS) (FROM NOVEMBER 21, 2013 UNTIL JANUARY 20, 2017)…………………………………………………………………….45 4.1. Perception of Lithuania (and Baltics)……………………………………………………….45 4.2. US Interests in Lithuania (and Baltics)……………………………………………………...49 4.3. Declared Foreign Policy Instruments by the US……………………………………………51 4.4. Russian Factor in US-Lithuanian (Baltic) Relations during the Ukraine Crisis……………..53 5. US FOREIGN POLICY PRACTICE WITH LITHUANIA (FROM NOVEMBER 21, 2013 UNTIL JANUARY 20, 2017)…………………………………………………………………………………...56 5.1 Political-Diplomatic Level………………………………………………………………….56 5.2 Military-Security Level……………………………………………………………………..59 5.3 Economic Level……………………………………………………………………………..61 CONCLUSIONS………………………………………………………………………………………..65 LIST OF LITERATURE AND SOURCES……………………………………………………………..68 ANNEXES……………………………………………………………………………………………...86 Visockaitė, J. The Implications of the Ukraine Crisis to the US-Lithuanian Relations. Master Thesis of Diplomacy and International Relations / supervisor Dr. G. Jakštaitė. Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy, Department of Political Science. Kaunas, 2017. 107 p. SUMMARY The crisis in Ukraine alarmed not only Lithuania but the whole international community about the aggressive Russian policy. The Russian actions arose the concerns in neighboring countries, including Lithuania and other Baltic states about their security and sovereignty. The US took steps in order to confront Russian aggression in Ukraine, and to reassure the concerned allies of the US commitment to their security. This master thesis’ topic is “The Implications of the Ukraine Crisis to the US-Lithuanian Relations”. This topic was chosen due to the fact that not many academic studies have yet been conceived in the selected field. Also, this topic is relevant today not only for the studies of international relations, but it is also significant for countries of such geopolitical situation as the Baltic countries are – between the interests of the two great powers: Russia and the United States. The goal of the thesis is to analyze how the Ukraine crisis influenced the international relations of Lithuania and the United States. The tasks of the research are the following: 1. To reveal the features of Classical Realism as international relations theory. 2. To explain the factors influencing the US-Lithuanian relations. 3. To investigate the US-Lithuanian international relations’ situation before the Ukraine crisis (analysis of the official US rhetoric and foreign policy practice). 4. To study the US official rhetoric about Lithuania (and Baltics) after Ukraine crisis started. 5. To analyze the US foreign policy practice with Lithuania after crisis in Ukraine began. The Defended Statement of this thesis is: the Implications of Ukraine crisis intensified relations of the US-Lithuania only in the question of security assurance and NATO commitment. The research of this master thesis has been conducted applying document and political discourse analysis methods, as well as the quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. The analysis revealed that the defended statement can be assumed correct – the most significant implications of the Ukraine crisis found after the analysis indeed relate to the intensified US-Lithuanian relations in regards to the security assurance and NATO commitment. Nonetheless, the analysis also suggests that Ukraine crisis influenced the US perception of Russia: no longer considering it a partner, and thus, the US focused its attention in the Baltics on strengthening the security and military capabilities and strongly supporting Lithuania’s efforts for energy security and less dependence on Russia. In addition, the Ukraine crisis seems to have an impact of the US-Lithuanian economic relations too: the economic area of US-Lithuania relations became less intense. 1 Visockaitė, J. Ukrainos krizės poveikis Lietuvos-JAV tarptautiniams santykiams. Diplomatijos ir tarptautinių santykių magistro baigiamasis darbas / vadovė dr. G. Jakštaitė. Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Politikos mokslų ir diplomatijos fakultetas, Politologijos katedra. Kaunas, 2017. 107 p. SANTRAUKA Ukrainos krizė įspėjo Lietuvą ir visą tarptautinę bendruomenę apie Rusijos agresyvią politiką. Rusijos veiksmai sukėlė nerimą dėl saugumo bei nepriklausomybės kaimyninėse valstybėse, tarp kurių yra Lietuva ir kitos Baltijos šalys. Siekiant konfrontuoti Rusijos agresiją Ukrainoje, Jungtinės Amerikos Valstijos ėmėsi veiksmų bei siekė užtikrinti sunerimusias sąjungininkes dėl JAV įsipareigojimo jų saugumui. Šio magistro baigiamojo darbo tema yra “Ukrainos krizės poveikis Lietuvos-JAV tarptautiniams santykiams”. Šios temos pasirinkimą lėmė mažai atliktas akademinis šios temos tyrinėjimas bei temos aktualumas tarptautinių santykių mokslams. Taip pat, ši tema yra ypatingai aktuali šalims esančioms panašioje Lietuvai geopolitinėje situacijoje (esančioms tarp dviejų didžiųjų galių interesų). Šio darbo tikslas yra išsiaiškinti kaip Ukrainos krizė paveikė JAV ir Lietuvos tarptautinius santykius. Tikslui pasiekti buvo iškelti penki pagrindiniai uždaviniai: 1. Pristatyti klasikinio realizmo tarptautinių santykių teorijos pamatinius bruožus. 2. Aptarti veiksnius, kurie daro įtaką JAV-Lietuvos tarptautiniams santykiams. 3. Ištirti JAV-Lietuvos tarptautinių santykių situaciją iki Ukrainos krizės pradžios (oficialios JAV retorikos bei užsienio politikos praktikos analizės). 4. Išanalizuoti oficialią JAV retoriką apie Lietuvą (ir Baltijos šalis) nuo Ukrainos krizės pradžios. 5. Išnagrinėti praktinę JAV užsienio politiką su Lietuva nuo Ukrainos krizės pradžios. Šio darbo ginamasis teiginys yra: Ukrainos krizė paveikė JAV-Lietuvos santykius tik saugumo užtikrinimo bei NATO įsipareigojimo kontekstuose. Darbe buvo naudojami: dokumentų ir politinio diskurso analizės metodai, bei kiekybinis ir kokybinis analizės metodai. Atlikus tyrimą, galima teigti, jog šio darbo ginamasis teiginys yra teisingas. Iš tiesų, paaiškėjo, kad didžiausią poveikį Ukrainos krizė padarė saugumo užtikrinimo ir NATO įsipareigojimo kontekstuose. Vis dėlto, buvo pastebėta, kad Ukrainos krizė taip pat padarė įtaką JAV požiūriui į Rusiją. JAV nebelaikė Rusijos partnere. Todėl JAV stipriai palaikė Lietuvos pastangas energetikos saugumo klausimu. Tikėtina, kad Rusijos įtaka gali būti sumažinta Lietuvai tampant vis mažiau priklausoma energetiškai. Galiausiai, Ukrainos krizė paveikė ir ekonominius JAV-Lietuvos santykius. Galima teigti, kad Ukrainos krizės dėka, JAV-Lietuvos ekonominiai santykiai buvo nustumti į šalį ir buvo labiau koncentruotasi į saugumo ir karines sritis. 2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS D.C. - District of Colombia ERI - European Reassurance Initiative EU - European Union IMF - International Monetary Fund ISAF - International Security Assistance Force LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization OSCE - Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe T-TIP - Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership US - United States of America 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Perception of Lithuania and Baltics (before Ukraine Crisis)…………………………………..86 Table 2. US Interests in Lithuania and Baltics (before Ukraine Crisis)…………………………………87 Table 3. Declared Foreign Policy Instruments by the US (before Ukraine Crisis)………………………88 Table 4. Russian Factor in US-Lithuanian (Baltic) Relations (before Ukraine Crisis)………………….89 Table 5. Perception of Lithuania and Baltics (after Ukraine Crisis)…………………………………….90 Table 6. US Interests in Lithuania and Baltics (after Ukraine Crisis started)……………………………91 Table 7. Declared Foreign Policy Instruments by the US (after Ukraine