Cognitive and Affective Processes Underlying Risk
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COGNITIVE AND AFFECTIVE PROCESSES UNDERLYING RISK PERCEPTIONS AND INTENTIONS OF FLOOD-PRONE HOUSEHOLDS (A dual-process approach) BY LARA ALTARAWNEH BSc(Hons) Architecture A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in ARCHITECTURE, From the School of Architecture and Built Environment at the University of Newcastle, Australia OCTOBER 2018 Supervised by Associate professor Jamie Mackee Associate professor Thayaparan Gajendran This research was supported by the University of Newcastle International Postgraduate Research Scholarship (UNIPRS) I hereby certify that the work embodied in the thesis is my own work, conducted under normal supervision. The thesis contains no material which has been accepted, or is being examined, for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text. I give consent to the final version of my thesis being made available worldwide when deposited in the University’s Digital Repository, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 and any approved embargo. SIGNATURE DATE OCTOBER 2018 ii ABSTRACT From a socio-psychological perspective, this thesis has sought to unearth the core factors influencing householders’ response to flood risk in a bid to identify how a shift towards greater protection levels can be harnessed. In doing so, a framework was developed for understanding household decision making in flood-prone areas of South East Queensland, Australia. This framework illustrates the pathways by which household decision making is influenced by dual processes (affective and cognitive) operating at different levels of influence: 1. conjointly (and directly) shaping flood preparedness intentions; 2. mediating the (indirect) influence of other core factors (personal experience, subjective knowledge, self-efficacy and trust) on flood preparedness intentions; and, 3. being moderated by the influence of benefit perception (operationalized as “residential satisfaction”) on flood preparedness intentions. Additionally, the framework stresses the relevance of understating the role and the predictors of householders’ non-protective response (i.e. risk denial). In this vein, a shift from non-protective to protective behavioural intentions can be best realized. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Undertaking this PhD has been a truly life-changing experience for me and it would not have been possible without the help that I received from many people. First, and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Assoc. Prof. Jamie MacKee and Assoc. Prof. Thayaparan Gajendran for their patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and useful critiques. I would like to acknowledge the input and feedback provided by Micromex Research and Consulting while conducting the field work, including survey implementation and overall data collection. A special word of gratitude to Ms. Fran Baker for helping me with statistical analysis pertaining to my research work and for her expert guidance and invaluable suggestions rendered during the study. I would like to give special thanks to the members of my thesis review committee (Assoc. Profe. Raufdeen Raieezdeen and Prof. Bingunath Ingirige), who gave detailed insightful comments about my research work. The comments have helped me greatly in preparing this final version of my thesis. On the same note, I would like to thank the members of my oral examination (PhD Confirmation) committee for raising a number of interesting points of discussion and possible future research directions. I want to especially mention Dr. Jason von Meding and Dr. Helen Giggins in this regard. I extend my sincere gratitude to the University of Newcastle, who provided a four year scholarship, which covered both tuition fees and living allowance. I am also very grateful to the administrative and technical staff members of the School of Architecture and Built Environment who have been kind enough to advise and help in their respective roles. I would also like to acknowledge the intellectual environment provided by my past and present colleagues. Just a few to name: Shanying Shih, Giuseppe Forino, Tohid Fardpour, Owi Toinpre, Matthew Abunyewah and Reza Forghani. I must express my deepest gratitude to my parents, my family members and especially to my husband Abdullah, for their inspiration, active support and endurance. I would also like to thank my friends (Ammar Homsi, Florens Pattiasina, Farshid Evazabadi, Andrei Pomana, Juan Quijano, Sylvia Chan, David Chan, Ashraf Alqadi, Mohammad Alayyat and Sahar Rabadi), who provided a much needed form of escape from my studies, also deserve thanks for helping me keep things in perspective. Finally, and certainly not least, this research would not have been possible without those people who gave up their time to participate in the research. Residents in the two locations (Ipswich and Gold Coast) generously provide me with their quantitative data and shared their often difficult experiences of what it is like be flooded. I humbly present my wholehearted thanks to all of them. OCTOBER 2018 Lara Altarawneh iv CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................ iv CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... x ACRONYMS ......................................................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND AND PROBLEM DEFINITION ..................................................................... 1 1.2 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................... 5 1.3 GENERAL METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ....................................................................... 6 1.4 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................. 8 1.5 THESIS OUTLINE AND STRUCTURE ................................................................................... 12 1.6 CHAPTER SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 14 1.7 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2 ........................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1 THE CONCEPT OF RISK AND RISK PERCEPTION ............................................................. 20 2.2 COGNITIVE AND AFFECTIVE PROCESSES IN RISK PERCEPTION .............................. 24 2.3 THE INTERPLAY OF COGNITIVE AND AFFECTIVE PROCESSES .................................. 33 2.4 FACTORS DETERMINING RISK PERCEPTION AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIOURAL INTENTIONS ................................................................................................................................... 38 2.5 CHAPTER SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 47 2.6 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 47 CHAPTER 3 ........................................................................................................................................... 61 3.1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................ 61 3.2 FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................ 61 3.3 RESEARCH CONSTRUCTS ..................................................................................................... 65 3.4 CHAPTER SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 70 3.5 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 4 ........................................................................................................................................... 74 4.1 GENERAL PHILOSOPHICAL STANCE ................................................................................. 74 v 4.2 SURVEY SAMPLING DESIGN................................................................................................ 77 4.3 QUESTIONNAIRE/SURVEY CONSTRUCTION.................................................................... 83 4.4 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................... 92 4.5 DATA PREPARATION ............................................................................................................