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33449545.Pdf View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Policy Documentation Center THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012. A VIEW FROM WITHIN. Copyright 2012 by the Civilitas Foundation All Rights Reserved Printed in Armenia The Civilitas Foundation One Northern Avenue, Suite 30 Yerevan, Armenia www.civilitasfoundation.org UDC 342.8 (479.25): 338 (479.25) ELECTION 2012. A VIEW FROM WITHIN. / The Civilitas Foundation Yerevan, Civilitas Foundation, 2012 36 p., 21 x 29.7cm ISBN 978-99941-2-705-4 1. Armenia - History - 1991. 2. Armenia - Yearbooks. 3. Armenia - Economics. This publication has been made possible by support from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Norway. The views expressed herein are those of the Civilitas Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................................... 5 THE REGIONAL CONTEXT .................................................................................. 7 THE DOMESTIC CONTEXT ................................................................................. 9 Election about Elections .......................................................................................... 9 THE CAMPAIGN....................................................................................................11 The Issues ................................................................................................................14 Finances ...................................................................................................................16 Violations ................................................................................................................16 Opinion Polls ..........................................................................................................18 Media coverage .......................................................................................................20 THE ELECTION AND RESULTS ............................................................................23 The Official Results ................................................................................................24 International Reactions .........................................................................................27 Local Observers’ Assessments ..............................................................................29 Participating Parties’ Verdicts...............................................................................30 AFTERMATH AND REPERCUSSIONS ................................................................... 33 FROM THE HISTORY OF ELECTIONS ................................................................. 34 3 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION 4 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION PREFACE The Civilitas Foundation, has, Most of all, the attempt is to provide a long- since its establishment, published view and some perspective on policies, for those in government, those wishing to enter an annual report on the state of government, or for civil society actors or Armenia’s political and economic others in the public sector. development, as well as a look at By presenting information on the changing electoral environment, the changing electoral regional events and developments processes and the observations and conclusions during the previous year. Thus, of local and international monitors, this report may help serve to better understand what did in 2008, Civilitas published and didn’t happen and what can be expected ARMENIA IN 2008 - CRISIS AND in the all-important 2013 presidential election OPPORTUNITY, followed by to come. ARMENIA IN 2009 — PROMISE Finally, this report does not pretend to assess the integrity of the process nor the legitimacy AND REALITY, ARMENIA IN 2010 of the outcome. The details of the day are — A YEAR OF UNCERTAINTY and available elsewhere. This report attempts to present a general view of the context and the ARMENIA IN 2011 — WITHOUT processes — a view from within. ILLUSIONS. ARMENIA IN 2012 will be published in December 2012 and whatever its subtitle, the parliamentary elections of May 2012 will figure largely, as will the environment in the run-up to the 2013 presidential election. Just as reports on Armenia and the Caucasus are produced by international agencies and organizations to provide a guideline by which to understand Armenia and its current political and economic situation, there are also many reports on Armenia’s elections produced by the various international monitoring and observation groups. This mid-year report by Civilitas is called ELECTIONS 2012 — A VIEW FROM WITHIN. It is the product of discussions and consultations by those who have watched this election and those who came before as observers, journalists, analysts and citizens. Like the annual reports themselves, the purpose is to provide context and information to explain events and trends, intentions and actions. 5 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION 6 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION THE REGIONAL CONTEXT The May 6, 2012 Armenian In Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili has engineered parliamentary election was changes to the constitution that augment the powers of the prime minister and reduce the first of five national the president to a figurehead. Concomitant elections — plus one in changes to the electoral code virtually guarantee that Saakashvili’s United National Nagorno Karabakh — to be Movement will preserve its overall majority in the October 2012 parliamentary election. held in the South Caucasus That party would therefore be in a position to over a period of less than 18 nominate Saakashvili for the post of premier. It is ironic that of the three Caucasus presidents, months. Parliamentary elections it is Saakashvili who would be following Putin’s are due in Georgia in October example, given their mutually acrimonious 2012, and a presidential ballot relationship. in January 2013; presidential The Georgian parliament comprises 150 deputies, of whom 77 are elected from party elections will take place in lists and 73 in single mandate constituencies. Armenia in February 2013 and The new electoral code adopted in December 2011 fails, however, to rectify shortcomings in Azerbaijan in October 2013. repeatedly criticized by international election Karabakh held a presidential monitors, or to incorporate proposals by opposition parties aimed at ensuring a fairer election in July. distribution of mandates that might reduce The presidents and/or ruling parties of the ruling party’s large parliamentary majority. all three South Caucasus states appear It also preserves the enormous discrepancies determined to remain in power indefinitely. between the size of individual single-mandate But there are significant variations in the constituencies, where the number of voters extent to which they have amended their varies from a few hundred to 10,000-14,000. respective constitutions and electoral The European Union and the United States codes to enable them to do so. The most have both expressed regret that Georgia’s new recent (2008) amendments to Azerbaijan’s law does not address “perceptions of inequality electoral code failed to take into account within the electoral system.” key recommendations by the international community. The following year the In 2005, Armenia passed constitutional constitution was amended in a referendum to changes, based on which it moved from a abolish the restriction on any person serving presidential to a semi-presidential system more than two consecutive presidential terms; by enhancing the role of the parliamentary Azerbaijan’s ruling New Azerbaijan Party has majority. already confirmed that incumbent Ilham Aliyev will seek a third term in the fall of 2013. The ruling Republican Party’s fear was that the 2012 parliamentary election might be the Azerbaijan, with a population almost three testing ground for this change if the ruling times the size of Armenia’s (9.16 million) and party did not maintain absolute control. almost twice as many registered voters (4.8 million), has just 125 parliamentarians, all On paper, Armenia has arguably the most elected in single-mandate constituencies. representative electoral system of the 7 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION ELECTION 2012 ELECTION 2012 THE CIVILITAS FOUNDATION three South Caucasus states in terms of the visited where the voting was assessed as ratio of deputies to population; the ratio “good” or “very good.” of parliamentarians elected from party lists vs those elected in single-mandate Thus, expectations by the international constituencies, the variation in size of community and the Armenian public were individual constituencies, and the appeals high for Armenia’s May 6 Parliamentary process. Election. At the same time, the ruling party had a great deal at stake — to maintain the The preliminary report by the International status quo of full control of all three branches Election Observation Mission on the May of power. 6 election described the electoral code as “providing a sound legal framework for conducting democratic elections,” but expressed regret that “important aspects,” including
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