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The Case of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)

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The Case of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Accountability and Financial Oversight Reform: The Case of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) by Daniel McKenzie A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Manitoba in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Studies University of Manitoba Winnipeg Copyright © 2012 by Daniel McKenzie Abstract The Conservative Government came to power in 2006 on a platform of accountability. One aspect of this platform was the creation of a Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO). The PBO was intended to contribute to a higher level of accountability in government budgeting. This thesis seeks to explain why the PBO was created, what it does, and contemplates whether the PBO has been able to help Parliamentarians hold the Executive to account. In addition, the thesis questions how the PBO itself is held accountable. Finally the study considers potential changes to the PBO and what might become of the PBO after its conspicuous first leader Kevin Page passes from the scene. Minor changes to the PBO’s legislation and placement within the institutions of government may improve the results of the PBO. However, the PBO’s effectiveness, independence and accountability will still depend on the office’s structural characteristics and leadership. 2 For Mom and Dad 3 Acknowledgements I am forever indebted to my parents. Without them this project would never have been completed. I am very fortunate to have loving parents who have always been there to support me emotionally and financially in whatever endeavours I have taken on. I am also grateful to those members of the faculty of the University of Manitoba who have advised me during this project, in particular Dr. Paul Thomas, Dr. Jared Wesley, and Dr. Andrea Rounce. Dr. Thomas for his experience, knowledge, and kindness in giving up so much of his time to help out with completing this study and the original research paper for his Seminar on Public Administration. Dr. Wesley for his extraordinary work ethic, professionalism, and desire to get the best work possible from his students. If this study meets the requirements desired of the Master’s Program it will be due in large part to the time Dr. Wesley dedicated to this project. And last I must thank Dr. Rounce whose patience in reading my thesis over and over again in the editing stage is nothing short of amazing. Dr. Rounce may know my thesis better than I do. Dr. Rounce’s positive reinforcement also did tremendous things for a project where progress was sometimes slow and difficult. Thanks are also in order for Dr. Andrea Rounce, Dr. Wayne Simpson, and Dr. Paul Thomas for agreeing to take the time to be part of this project by sitting on my thesis committee and Dr. Karine Levasseur who agreed to chair the committee. Finally I am forever indebted to all of those who agreed to participate in the study and allowed themselves to be interviewed for this thesis. In particular, I need to 4 thank the office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer for being enthusiastic participants in the study. The contributions by Mr. Kevin Page and Mr. Mostafa Askari were invaluable and Mrs. Patricia Brown was always quick and pleasant in answering any inquiries I had. Finally, I would like to thank Allan Darling for not only agreeing to be interviewed for the study, but for reviewing drafts of my study and offering thoughts and corrections that were valuable in enriching the study and improving its accuracy. 5 Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 4 Chapter I: Introduction .................................................. 9 1.1 Research Questions ........................................................................................ 10 1.2 Summary of Research Questions .................................................................... 11 1.3 Methodology .................................................................................................. 11 1.4 Challenges ...................................................................................................... 14 1.5 Key Definitions ............................................................................................... 15 1.6 Organization ................................................................................................... 16 1.7 Summary ........................................................................................................ 18 Chapter II: Literature Review ....................................... 20 2.1 Budget Process in Canada ............................................................................... 20 2.2 Responsibility ................................................................................................. 23 2.3 Accountability ................................................................................................. 24 2.4 Transparency .................................................................................................. 26 2.5 Officers of Parliament ..................................................................................... 26 2.5.1 A Problematic Concept .................................................................................. 27 2.6 Establishing the International Context ............................................................ 32 2.7 Parliamentary versus Presidential System ...................................................... 33 Chapter III: Rationales for the Creation of the PBO ...... 37 3.1 Underestimated Budget Balance Projections .................................................. 38 3.2 International Trends and Private Sector Forecasting ....................................... 41 3.3 Bureaucratic Self‐Interest ............................................................................... 41 3.4 Aiding Parliamentarians .................................................................................. 43 3.4.1 Can’t the Library’s Research Branch Do This? ........................................... 47 3.5 Improving Discourse ....................................................................................... 49 Chapter IV: Creation and Operations ........................... 50 4.1 The Conservative Party of Canada’s 2006 Election Commitment ..................... 50 4.2 Section 116 of the Federal Accountability Act ................................................. 51 6 4.3 Costing of Proposals........................................................................................ 51 4.4 Economic Forecasts ......................................................................................... 54 4.5 Integrated Monitoring Database ..................................................................... 56 4.6 Compelling and Disclosing Information ........................................................... 58 Chapter V: Early Years Turmoil .................................... 62 5.1 Conflicts over Mandate ................................................................................... 62 5.2 Differences with Campaign Commitment ....................................................... 63 5.3 Conflicting Messages ...................................................................................... 65 5.4 Bureaucratic Uneasiness ................................................................................. 66 5.5 Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition ...................................................................... 66 5.6 2008 Speakers’ Letter ..................................................................................... 68 5.7 Solicitor‐Client Relationship ............................................................................ 70 5.8 Concerns with Populism .................................................................................. 73 5.9 Support for the PBO ........................................................................................ 74 5.10 Recommendations of the Joint Committee on the Library of Parliament ...... 78 5.11 Response from Kevin Page ............................................................................ 82 5.12 Budget .......................................................................................................... 85 Chapter VI: Kevin Page and the PBO ............................ 88 6.1 Appointment Process ...................................................................................... 88 6.2 Kevin Page ...................................................................................................... 91 6.3 Staffing ........................................................................................................... 93 Chapter VII: The PBO Going Forward ........................... 95 7.1 The PBO and Officers of Parliament ................................................................ 95 7.2 Potential Changes at the PBO ......................................................................... 97 7.3 Challenges ...................................................................................................... 99 Chapter VIII: Conclusion ............................................ 101 8.1 Other Avenues for Research ......................................................................... 101 8.2 Summary or Research Questions .................................................................. 102 8.3 Findings and Recommendations
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