A Different Normal

www.policymagazine.ca September—October 2020

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A Different Normal

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Essential_Economy_Policy_Magazine.indd 1 8/19/2020 4:11:07 PM CanadianIn ThisPolitics Issue and Pub lic FromPoli cythe Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2 A Different Normal and the Tory Leadership Canadian Politics and 3 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan Public Policy Preparing for Canada’s Next Normal 7 Kevin Page EDITOR AND PUBLISHER A Fall Budget 2020 Strategy: Drive Toward the Future L. Ian MacDonald Shachi Kurl [email protected] 10 The Mood of Canada: Beyond the Coronavirus Summer ASSOCIATE EDITOR of our Discontent Lisa Van Dusen [email protected] 13 Bob Kirke and Elliot Lifson CONTRIBUTING WRITERS The Way We Wore: The COVID Crisis in Canada’s Thomas S. Axworthy, Clothing Industry Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Vianne Timmons James Baxter, Derek H. Burney, 15 Catherine Cano, Margaret Clarke, A Summer Road Trip: Resilience and Hope on The Rock Rachel Curran, Paul Deegan, Lori Turnbull John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, 17 The Politics of Prorogation Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, The Conservative Race Frank Graves, Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, Yaroslav Baran Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen, 20 The Conservatives and Post-Pandemic Politics Elizabeth May, Velma McColl, David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, 23 Geoff Norquay Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, Job One for A New Leader—Putting the Party Back Together Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page, Jaime Watt Robin V. Sears, Vianne Timmons, 26 Brian Topp, Lori Turnbull, Erin O’Toole’s Political, Policy and Pandemic Challenges Jaime Watt, Anthony Wilson-Smith Guest Column / Lee Richardson WEB DESIGN 28 Jock Osler, Beloved Politico. Honestly. Nicolas Landry [email protected] Race for the White House SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Grace MacDonald Sarah Goldfeder [email protected] 29 Reports of the Death of America Have Been Greatly Exaggerated GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Column / Don Newman Monica Thomas 32 [email protected] Beyond the Election, the China Card

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald A Different Normal and the Tory Leadership elcome back to the fall How are Canadians feeling about perative of uniting the party as Bri- 2020 semester of politics life in the pandemic, and the pros- an Mulroney and Joe Clark did by W and policy in a world trans- pects of moving beyond it? The An- becoming close partners following formed from the one we used to know. gus Reid Institute’s Shachi Kurl has the divisive 1983 leadership conven- With a post-pandemic reality not set- some attitudinal data to provide us tion, enabling the Tories to sweep tled yet, this is not a new normal with a look at the mood of Canada the country the next year. And Jaime we’re living in now, but it certainly is going into the fall. Watt observes: “O’Toole has earned a different one. We’re looking at the his win.” But with serious economic How has daily life changed in the economic and social aspects of that in and social post-pandemic challenges pandemic? Just look at the clothes our extensive cover package. “well beyond the usual uphill battle we’re wearing, and not. As Bob Kirke facing a new leader.” We’re also looking, in that very con- and Elliot Lifson of the Canadian Ap- text, at the outcome and outlook for parel Federation note: “Canadians And former Conservative MP Lee the Conservative Party of Canada haven’t been going to work, and they Richardson writes of the passing of a and its new leader, Erin O’Toole, as don’t need to dress up to work from beloved member of the Conservative he becomes leader of the Opposition home.” That’s a big problem for Can- family. Jock Osler advised both Clark in a minority House. ada’s $30 billion clothing industry. and Mulroney. His life itself was a les- son in collegial unity. And we’re just weeks away from a Memorial University’s new President, momentous US presidential elec- Vianne Timmons, took a month-long n the race for the White tion in which Donald Trump—the summer tour of its campuses across House, we offer important most divisive and disreputable figure her home province of Newfoundland Oinsights shared by experi- of the modern era—will either win and Labrador, and was struck by the enced Washington hand Sarah Gold- a second term or be sent packing by resilience of the people. feder, a State Department alumna. American voters. Our columnist, Don Newman, him- One of the consequences of the pan- self a former Washington correspon- demic has been money flying out of Looking at that different normal, Kev- dent, joins the conversation with Be- in Lynch and Paul Deegan ask how the Ottawa, with little due diligence or yond the Election, the China Card. global economic narrative will evolve, attention to how it’s spent and who and in what geopolitical context. And manages it. The WE Charity scan- Finally, in Canada and the World, as they note: “The nature of work has dal has provided some damaging an- Assembly of First Nations Nation- changed more in the last six months swers. When the PM’s mother is paid al Chief Perry Bellegarde shares his than in the previous 20 years.” $250,000 plus expenses for speeches, informed perspective on why In- everybody gets that. Dalhousie Uni- digenous self-policing is so success- Looking at the Canadian fiscal frame- versity’s Lori Turnbull considers the ful, in contrast to the troubles of ra- work, former Parliamentary Budget broader political ramifications, now cial minorities with conventional Officer Kevin Page has never seen any- including prorogation. law enforcement. thing like the stimulative deficits of Ot- tawa’s pandemic response. Even with ooking at the outcome of the On the 25th anniversary of the 1995 a deficit of $343 billion in the summer Conservative leadership race, Quebec referendum, author and jour- update, he notes that Canada’s low L strategist Yaroslav Baran of- nalist Graham Fraser looks back at debt-to-GDP ratio gives Ottawa a mar- fers a 9-point check list of priorities how it changed both Quebec and gin of manouevre. As he writes: “The for the new leader. He’ll have ev- Canada. And Jean Charest, key- economics of deficits have changed. erything on his plate, including the note speaker at the historic rally of With next-to-zero interest rates and challenge of bringing moderate and 100,000 people that may have saved no inflation in near sight, there are social Conservatives together. Geoff the No campaign, offers his memo- virtually no bottom-line balance sheet Norquay looks at exactly that, with ries of that day marked by an overrid-

impacts of running larger deficits.” a keen eye on history, and the im- ing question of country.

Policy 3

The corner of the Sparks Street Mall and O’Connor in Ottawa. Normally the busiest pedestrian corridor in the capital, with the CBC building (left) and the back of the National Press Building (right), the street was shut down and utterly deserted during the pandemic lockdown. Nabil Salah Unsplash photo Preparing for Canada’s Next Normal

After an unprecedented summer of physical distancing Kevin Lynch and damage assessment, individuals, governments and and Paul Deegan global stakeholders are moving forward from crisis mode he COVID-19 pandemic has to planning for a post-pandemic reality. What might that not only rocked society today, inter-woven economic and geopolitical narrative look like? T it is reshaping our tomorrow— rapidly accelerating trends that will Former BMO Vice Chair Kevin Lynch and former CN and define the “next normal” for Canada BMO executive Paul Deegan offer some insights. and the world.

Unless there is another wave of the virus, we are through the shutdown phase, where governments locked down economic and social activity to plank the curve and preserve the health care system. Government fiscal policies during the shutdown have been geared to three things—liquidity, liquidity, and liquidity. The shutdown, while necessary, caused the first-ever recession driven by the services sector, not the goods sector of the economy. Unlike the 2007-

September/October 2020 4 2009 period, which affected men par- The 2020 pandemic recession has disproportionally ticularly hard, especially in construc- tion and manufacturing, the 2020 hit women and visible minority workers in service pandemic recession has dispropor- sector jobs. This, combined with the higher incidence of tionally hit women and visible mi- coronavirus in senior care facilities and among nority workers in service sector jobs. marginalized communities, makes COVID-19 inequality This, combined with the higher incidence of coronavirus in senior care a pressing issue. facilities and among marginalized communities, makes COVID-19 inequality a pressing issue.

Having successfully convinced soci- A return to the old normal is not in Asia, with less reliance on China, and eties of the imperative to physically the cards—there will be fundamen- there will be a push to re-localize sup- distance and shut down normal day- tal and lasting impacts from the pan- ply chains for critical goods. Digital to-day activities, we are now moving demic. These aftershocks include: a services trade will be constrained by into the restart phase—the unlock- disruption of global trade and invest- geopolitical battles over technology ing of the economy and society. This ment patterns; a debt hangover of standards, taxes, internet rules and has been complex and confusing, historic proportions; a fundamental cybersecurity protocols. with contradictory signals from gov- redesign of work and the workplace More rigorous screening of foreign di- ernments and public health experts. (including education and the class- rect investment will emerge from the Truly, this is the intersection of de- room) with highly-intensified digiti- global recession to protect battered mand and supply, where firms need zation; a recognition that a resilient domestic firms, and will be ampli- to rehire and spend; individuals need health care system is both a social as- fied by geopolitical tensions. Linger- to return to work and consume; and set and an economic imperative; and ing coronavirus fears will see declines trade needs to flow. And all of this is geopolitics on steroids, with impacts in people movements, particularly happening with lingering economic touching all countries. international air travel, internation- and epidemiological uncertainty and al tourism, and international educa- very real and very personal health e are witnessing a de-inte- tion—a major source of funding for and safety concerns. gration of the global Canadian universities. One conse- economy after decades W quence of this deglobalization will be hile the economic impli- of increasing globalization. This piv- a decline in trade flows and foreign cations of all this are ot has been stoked by a rising tide of direct investment flows, particularly easy to see but difficult to nationalism and protectionism ex- W between China and the West. quantify, three things are only too emplified by the Trump administra- clear. First, the starting point is a glob- tion’s tariff wars with China and oth- e are in the midst of a debt al economy in the sharpest recession ers, including Canada. It has been fed explosion for governments, since the 1930s. Second, the timing by strategic competition between the as well as corporations and and vigour of the recovery will de- United States and China in key tech- W households, and it’s on a scale that pend on the duration of the pandem- nologies, such as AI and 5G, as well Canada has not experienced since the ic, the state of business and consumer as in geopolitical spheres of influence Second World War. In May, we wrote confidence, and the nature of govern- in Asia and elsewhere. And it was the in the Ottawa Citizen that the Cana- ment support and stimulus measures choked global supply chains during dian federal deficit this year could yet to come. Third, the recovery will the pandemic that spurred the grow- be—combining automatic stabilizers, be uneven and the economy will be ing consensus that the world is over- supports announced so far, and ad- scarred with record bankruptcies and ly reliant on China—not just for per- ditional restart stimulus—as high as lost jobs for some time to come. sonal protective equipment, but also $300 billion (or than 40 percent of all for pharmaceuticals and their con- And perhaps the most challeng- the net debt accumulated since Con- stituent compounds, telecommuni- ing phase is yet to come, the “next federation). Our estimate turned out cations hardware, semiconductors, normal”, with the complex reboot- to be shy of the $343 billion, forecast smart phones, solar panels, wind tur- ing of the economies and societies by former finance minister Bill Mor- bines, lithium-ion batteries for elec- post-pandemic. Few crises change ei- neau in the July fiscal “snapshot”. tric vehicles and other, non-com- ther everything or nothing, and the To put this year’s deficit in context, moditized, manufactured goods. COVID-19 pandemic will be no dif- it is about the same size as total fed- ferent. So, what might the “known In the next normal, diversification eral spending in a normal year and unknowns” of lasting change in the of supply chains will be the imper- represents about 16 percent of GDP. next normal include? ative. They will move elsewhere in Next year, the deficit could easily ex-

Policy 5 ceed another $100 billion, depending framework that supports both growth In the next normal, working from on the strength of the recovery and in the natural resource sector and im- home will become a regular part of the political willingness of the gov- proved environmental outcomes? the norm, but only part. Businesses ernment to ramp down its massive When are we going to upgrade skills will design new hybrid home-and-of- new spending support programs. training for a digital economy? fice work arrangements, create lower Where are we going to find new mar- density office settings, substitute vir- All this will push the federal net debt- kets for our exports in a world of de- tual meetings for travel, platoon em- to-GDP ratio from 30 percent to 49 coupling trade? Without such a cred- ployees at the office rather than all- percent this year, and our gross debt- ible growth plan, global markets will hands-on-deck all the time, and shift to-GDP ratio to over 100 percent, place upward pressure on Canadian to staggered work hours to respond to putting at risk Canada’s vaunted debt risk spreads and downward pressure health concerns around mass public advantage. Near-zero interest rates on Canada’s credit rating (Fitch has transit and crowded elevators. make this fiscally affordable as long already taken away our enviable Tri- as they stay near zero. Rising debt-to- ple A status) while foreign direct in- GDP ratios make this fiscally stable as vestment will seek opportunities else- The workplace has long as markets have confidence in where. Without a credible fiscal plan, become more virtual, the government’s ability to manage these pressures will only intensify. more mobile, less physical, the deficit post- pandemic and flatten the debt curve. The next normal’s and perhaps less routinized. he nature of work has changed prospect of low long-term economic For work and education, more in the last six months growth makes managing this moun- than it had in the previous 20 things may never be as they tain of debt very challenging. T years. Employees are working from were before. This now trillion dollar plus moun- home en masse and effectively, doc- tain of public debt, combined with tors are doing tele-medicine as a mat- high household debt and nonfinan- ter of practice, not exception. Con- cial corporate sector debt leverage, sumers are buying online as never will require a clear and credible fis- before, and stores, by necessity, are cal plan and growth plan to address finding ways to deliver. Educators Employers will worry about productiv- it. How do we justify interprovincial have moved out of the classroom and ity in a work-from-home world, and as trade barriers in an era of low growth? onto Zoom. The workplace has be- a consequence will focus investment What are we going to do to raise Can- come more virtual, more mobile, less and resourcing decisions on digitiz- ada’s abysmally low productivity per- physical, and perhaps less routinized. ing and adapting to a much more dig- formance? How can we grow the na- For work and education, things may ital workforce and a much more dig- tional economy without a regulatory never be as they were before. ital customer—in both in the B2C

Fiscal Outlook Direct COVID Support Measures Canada (C$ blns, except where noted) 19/20e 20/21f Program or measure (FY20/21) $ blns Revenues 341.0 268.8 1 Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) 82.3 Expenditures 375.3 612.1 2 Program Spending 350.8 592.6 Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) 73.1 Public Debt Charges 24.5 19.5 Funding for health personal protective equipment 14.0 Adjustment for Risk -- -- Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA) 13.8 Budget Balance (34.4) (343.2) Temporary GST credit enhancement 5.5 Federal Debt 717 1060 Canada Emergency Student Benefit 5.3 As a percent of GDP: Budget Balance (1.5) (15.9) Top-up of essential worker wages 3.0 Federal Debt 31.1 49.1 One-time payment to OAS and GIS recipients 2.5 . Economic Assumptions BMO Capital Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance 2.4 (percent) Ottawa Markets Temporary child benefit enhancement 2.0 2019 2020 2021 2020 2021 Various other measures 24.1 GDP Growth Real 1.7 -6.8 5.5 -6.0 6.0 3 Total direct support 228.0 Nominal 3.6 -6.3 7.9 -6.1 7.5 Yields 3-month T-Bill 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 1 Assumes extension and program modification to incent hiring. Details pending. 2 Includes extension from 16 weeks to 24 weeks 10-year GoC 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 3 Direct support only. Tax deferral, liquidity and lending programs not included Source: Fiscal Snapshot Note: GDP figures are for calendar year (FY19/20 = CY19) ( ) = deficit; e = estimate; f = forecast Sources: BMO Capital Markets, Fiscal Update . .

September/October 2020 6 (business-to-consumer) and B2B (busi- competitive advantage compared to of a world where superpowers take an ness-to-business) spaces. They will in- other countries such as the US with a la carte approach to a rules-based vest heavily in cloud-based human our universal Medicare system and system and the rest of us scramble. capital management and sales soft- well-connected health care institu- What the failure to secure a seat on ware to engage employees, custom- tions coast-to-coast. the United Nations Security Council ers and prospects. Digital commerce Going forward, we should expect a demonstrated is not that the world will continue to soar, and traditional strong public consensus that Can- doesn’t like us anymore, but they brick and mortar retailers will either ada needs a best-in-class pandem- don’t think they need us as much adapt and innovate, or they will die. ic response capacity, including ear- as they did. They don’t see a Cana- Logistics to support online commerce ly warning systems, stockpiles of will be a business priority. Merger and dian foreign policy to align to, part- critical equipment, skilled pandem- acquisition activity will increase as ner with, or support in this new nor- ic care capacity, facilities to devel- high-quality assets shift from the bat- mal of dangerous geopolitics. We are op and produce antiviral treatments tered to the strong. Corporate concen- not leading on the Arctic, which is and vaccines, adequate testing and tration will continue to increase, par- becoming a focal point for US, Chi- tracking capacity, and surge capaci- ticularly in the info-tech space. na and Russia. We are not leading ty in ICU beds. Social cohesion and on peacekeeping or peacemaking or And, without a vaccine, it is hard to federal-provincial cooperation will development in a world where local see universities and colleges either be tested in the next normal as diffi- tensions have global consequences. attracting large numbers of interna- cult policy choices and tough finan- We are underinvesting in defence de- tional students or cramming hun- cial constraints apply in government spite it being a collective NATO ob- dreds upon hundreds of students decision making. But pandemics are ligation. We are no longer viewed as into lecture halls—both key elements sadly not a once-off, and neither can having unique relationships with the of today’s higher education business be investments in health care re- two superpowers but have not devel- model. A shift to more online educa- sponse capacity and infrastructure. oped new alliances to offset this. In tion, which attempts to address both short, we need a clear and compel- these risks, puts a very high premium rior to the pandemic, the US, ling foreign policy for the new nor- on quality and innovation because, China, and Russia were engag- mal, one that blends national in- in the absence of physical proximity P ing in the sort of “Big Pow- terest with multilateralism and a and exclusivity, a student can attend er” behaviours not seen in decades. rules-based system. a university or college anywhere. The pandemic has vastly reinforced COVID-19 has attacked our lives and these tensions, particularly between livelihoods, and it has shaken our his is the third pandemic in China and the US It has reinvigorat- economies and the world order. We just 17 years, and something ed nationalism, in those countries need to up our leadership game in the public will not soon for- and elsewhere, where blaming “oth- T the world, we need to make difficult get. Indeed, public confidence that ers” is a substitute for taking own ac- domestic economic decisions for the we are relatively safe from catching countability. Attacks on the WHO, long-term, and we need to move on COVID-19 when returning to work the failure of the G20 and G7 to co- quickly to shape the next normal and re-engaging in social activities, ordinate and lead, resistance to new for Canada. Prorogation may have and that the health care system has IMF resources to help in the crisis, ig- been politically motivated, but the the resiliency and surge capacity to noring international analysis—these upcoming Speech from the Throne deal with another wave of COVID-19 all point to the weakness of inter- provides an opportunity to sketch or another virus, will be crucial el- national cooperation and stand in out a bold plan to build a more pros- ements in the vigor and speed of sharp contrast to how major coun- perous and inclusive Canada. As for- the recovery. tries came together to act in the col- mer prime minister Brian Mulroney lective interest during the 2008-09 fi- Social cohesion during the shut- stated recently, “Incrementalism nancial meltdown. down phase has been high in many builds increments. Bold initiatives countries, and federalism has worked In the next normal, we should expect build nations.” very well in Canada during the shut- a “back to the future” moment for down phase. What is clear is that a geopolitics. Rising nationalism, pro- Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch was strong and resilient health care sys- tectionism, de-globalization, and an formerly Clerk of the Privy Council and tem is both a social asset and an eco- increasing antipathy to multilateral Vice Chair of BMO Financial Group. nomic imperative in a world threat- institutions pose significant risks for Contributing Writer Paul Deegan, ened by pandemics. And, despite mid-sized, open countries like Canada CEO of Deegan Public Strategies, was missteps and mixed signals early in which rely on trade, enforceable rules- a public affairs executive at BMO the pandemic response, Canada has of-the-game and a global marketplace. Financial Group and CN, and served in found its footing and has a structural Canada will be caught in the middle the Clinton White House.

Policy 7 A Fall Budget 2020 Strategy: Drive Toward the Future

If the 2008 financial cataclysm gave economists a bad that means you haven’t gathered name, the health and economic implications of the enough information. To state the obvious, the current pub- COVID-19 lockdown have generated demand for all the lic health crisis and the scale of eco- expertise and ingenuity they can muster. As former Par- nomic fallout from containment liamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page writes, Canada ur- measures is unprecedented. We have not experienced declines in output gently needs policies to address long-term issues such as and employment of similar mag- climate change, income disparity, economic and health nitude since the Depression in the resiliency and competitiveness. 1930s (Chart1). If we rely on past (stimulus-type) policies to guide economic recovery plans they will likely be misguided and fall dangerous- Kevin Page cine—and trying to find a govern- ly short. We cannot collapse present ing philosophy for fiscal policy in a policy thinking into the past. t is a safe assumption that govern- world awash in debt. ment of Canada cabinet minis- Economic planning scenarios in ters and Finance Department If our political leaders and my former the future will center on a range I public service colleagues get a chance officials have spent much of their of epidemiological outcomes for summer thinking about an econom- to read one spy novel before the frost COVID-19 (i.e., vaccine, no vaccine; ic recovery plan for Canada and a hits the ground, I recommend The number and size of waves of infec- fall budget. Paladin, by David Ignatius. In a pe- tion) and individual country and riod of great difficulty, the principal global health and economic policy The political and economic stakes character tells himself to ‘move’. Chart 1responses. Gone is the focus on one are high. With the prorogation of When the presentGDP: All collapses Undustries, into Millions.Chained, baseline 2012scenario. C$ Employment, Gone is the Thousands as- Parliament, triggered in part by the the past, the only path of escape is sumption that individual countries resignation of a finance minister, the to drive toward the future. When can pretend to isolate themselves government will table a Speech from you don’t understand a problem, from what is happening elsewhere. the Throne in late September.

This will be a vote of confidence. If Chart 1: COVID19 Impacts on GDP and Employment the government fails, we are headed to a fall election. If the government Millions CAD succeeds, Parliament and Canadians 2,000 will push for a fall budget to ensure 19,250 words turn into deeds. 1,950 1,900 18,750 GDP, 2012 dollars While I’ve been reading spy novels, 1,850 they are looking over the shoulders 18,250 1,800 of colleagues in the European Union 17,750 and possibly US presidential candi- 1,750 Employment, thousands date Joe Biden to see what they are 1,700 17,250 planning for recovery. They are as- 1,650 16,750 sessing recently announced provin- 1,600 cial (e.g., Ontario and Alberta) and 16,250 1,550 municipal recovery plans. They are reading geeky disquisitions on possi- 1,500 15,750 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 ble economic scenarios for the world Jul. May Mar. Jan. Nov. Sep. Jul. May Mar. Jan. Nov. Sep. July. May economy—with and without a vac- Source: Statistics Canada

September/October 2020 Chart 2: IMF Projections of Net Debt to GDP

180 160 2018 2019 2020 2021 140 120 100 8 Plans are required for multiple sce- ting government debt on bank bal- explain the trade-offs and risks of defi- narios. Uncertainty cannot be an ance sheets) around the world to ease cit finance to Parliament and Canadi- excuse for no plans. As the saying the burdens of governments going to ans and the evolving role of our inde- goes, “No plan, no action leads to markets to raise money. While some pendent central bank. The pressure is no results”. will argue correctly this is not new, on macroeconomists to give us a new the amounts are setting records. governing philosophy for fiscal and he Organisation for Econom- monetary stabilization policy. ic Cooperation and Develop- T ment (OECD) suggests that Targeted policies How do policy makers transition countries should think of at least four are essential. The from fiscal supports essential to help phases of policy responses: 1) imme- process has started with households and businesses during diate (Canada is beyond this stage); containment and re-opening phases 2) cushioning impacts and preserving the evolution of programs to a post-COVID world, given the capacity (ongoing); 3) recovery; and like the wage subsidy and prospects for a weak, drawn-out and 4) resilience and debt management. employment insurance. uneven recovery? The transition from phase 2 to 3 will With high but declining not be “linear and smooth”. Differ- argeted policies are essential. ent industrial sectors and people will unemployment rates and no The process has started with not get to the recovery phase at the vaccine in sight, expect this T the evolution of programs like same time. to continue. the wage subsidy and employment insurance. With high but declining un- As somebody who worked in an employment rates and no vaccine in auto garage during high school and sight, expect this to continue but with learned to drive in an old tow truck increased focus on people and busi- (1950s Ford) with a standard trans- nesses locked out of the recovery. mission—can you ride the clutch The economics of deficits have without causing harm to the trans- As McKibben and Fernando (CEPR, changed. With next-to-zero interest mission? Do you have a choice, when 2020) point out in a recent pa- rates and no inflation in near sight, you’re starting on a hill? In econom- per assessing prospects for differ- ic speak, there are costs to living with there are virtually no bottom-line bal- ent COVID-19 economic scenarios, more debt. Debt finance is the eco- ance sheet impacts of running larger “Withdrawing macroeconomic sup- nomic transmission fluid. deficits. All the risks are punted to the port and creating ‘fiscal cliffs’ through future. Debt creates instability risks. If setting expiration dates on critical fis- Fiscal and monetary policy are (have years down the road, inflation makes a cal support policies in economies is been) headed into uncharted waters. comeback, interest rates will rise. The likely to worsen the uncertainty and Since the 2008 financial crisis, terms carrying cost of debt will skyrocket. increase economic costs.” like “quantitative easing” are becom- Higher debt interest costs will crowd ing commonplace in the speech- out spending on key policy priorities. Should policymakers focus on long- Chartes of central2: IMF Projectionsbankers. Central of Net banks Debt to GDP term goals as they develop COVID-19 are working with governments (put- The pressure is on finance ministers to economic recovery policies? Yes.

Chart 2: IMF Projections of Net Debt to GDP

Percent 180 160 2018 2019 2020 2021 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Canada France Germany Italy Japan United United Advanced Kingdom States Economies

Source: International Monetary Fund

Sources:Policy International Monetary Fund 9 The European Union has already While financing the din. If they do, maybe the economic launched its recovery policy path recovery strategy will be focused on to the future. They have recently challenges will long-term challenges. We can use a agreed to a trillion dollar plus (Ca- depend on a presidential Canadian version of the “missions” nadian) recovery fund. The policy victory and congressional approach to generate the evidence, framework is composed of five big backing, the Democratic collaboration, and policy experimen- missions—cancer, climate change, tation to hit defined targets. oceans, cities, and food. The mis- candidate is proposing sions are designed to bring evidence, government support well in If we are going to use deficit finance resources and policy experimenta- excess of a trillion dollars. to dig our way out the economic hole tion to long-term issues. Targets will created by COVID-19 then it is essen- be set—along the lines of President tial that spending is future-focused to John F. Kennedy’s 1961 vow to put help the next generation. In a Cana- a man on the moon by the end of dian context, the EU/US long-term the decade. fiscal stimulus would be well in excess capacity to address the next policy $100 billion over the next five years. US Presidential candidate Joe Biden shock, whether a pandemic or finan- This number might have been incon- will campaign on a long-term recov- cial or geopolitical crisis), and com- ceivable a few years ago, but not now ery policy “Build Back Better”. The petitiveness are urgently needed. in the context of an estimated decline high-level plan focuses on four long- Governments need to lay out a vi- in GDP of 7 percent in 2020, millions term challenges—manufacturing, in- sion (a north star) and plans to build of Canadians out of work, and a re- frastructure, children, racial equality. confidence and partnerships (invest- cord increase in the estimated federal While financing the challenges will ment). Why not pro-actively shape deficit to $340 billion. If our compet- depend on a presidential victory and and drive our future—more sustain- itors can afford it, can we afford not congressional backing, the Demo- able, more equitable, more resilient, too when our public finances are in cratic candidate is proposing govern- more digital. better shape? ment support well in excess of a trillion dollars. I hope that over the summer and ear- Contributing Writer Kevin Page, ly fall that cabinet ministers and fi- formerly Canada’s first Parliamentary n Canada, policies to address nance officials spend some time Budget Officer, is founding President long-term issues such as climate reading EU documents and US presi- and CEO of the Institute for Fiscal I change, income disparity, eco- dential campaign materials and may- Studies and Democracy (IFSD) at nomic and health resiliency (i.e., our be the odd spy novel like The Pala- University of Ottawa.

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Policy Magazine presents The Week in Policy, our weekly look at developments in the world of policy and politics in Ottawa, Washington and points beyond. Written by Policy Associate Editor and Hill Times columnist Lisa Van Dusen, The Week in Policy hits the screens of Canada’s political and policy community every Friday afternoon.

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September/October 2020 10 The Mood of Canada: BEYOND THE CORONAVIRUS SUMMER OF OUR DISCONTENT

Shachi Kurl This summer of job of Secretary General of the OECD. our coronavirus All but officially, to quell what was ix months in, no clear end in discontent was also turning into open warfare between sight. As Canadians turn their the Prime Minister’s Office and Mor- S first major corner living with punctuated by non-stop neau, whose proximity to and expen- COVID-19, here’s some develop- political drama that started sive travel with WE did an already- ments to watch for this fall, and some with a now-cancelled damaged Justin Trudeau no favours thoughts on how public opinion will in the affair. affect them. contract to WE Charity to run a student volunteer In an administration pocked by re- At the Angus Reid Institute we were sets, Morneau’s departure offers a in the field in mid-August, asking program and ended with tantalizing opportunity for anoth- Canadians whether they approved the awkward resignation er, albeit risky one. For better or for or disapproved of Justin Trudeau of Finance Minister Bill worse, Trudeau has been the face of as prime minister. His approval rat- Morneau. ing, high during the first several his government. Having soared in ap- months of the pandemic, definitely proval in the first months of the pan- took a major hit with the WE Char- demic, the scandal has largely eroded ity negative news explosion over whatever gains he made. the summer. non-stop political drama that started In a largely anonymous cabinet, Mor- with a now-cancelled contract to WE We looked at a lot of things Cana- neau was one of the better known, dians are concerned about, and the Charity to run a student volunteer but least publicly liked ministers. He re-opening of schools was high on program and ended with the awk- is now replaced by one of his only the anxiety list, although Canadians ward resignation of Finance Minister other well-known cabinet colleagues as a whole were more anxious about Bill Morneau. Officially, to try for the Chrystia Freeland. the situation than they were relieved to have come through it. And while Chart 1: Do you approve or disapprove of Justin Trudeau. August 2020 generally approving of vaccinations (46 percent) should an effective one become available, many said they 64% would wait a while before getting one 60% 61% (32 percent). In terms of diversions, 54% 55% 51% 54% the prospect of the summer NHL 50% playoffs beginning in August had 72 percent of Canadians very or some- 48% 35% 36% what excited about the prospect of 43% 44% 44% 44% the return of hockey. 33% It would have been too much, I sup- pose, to have hoped in this most trying of years the political Gods might 5% 6% have given us the summer off. If ever 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% we needed to flake out, to swing in our hammocks, to lounge lakeside Oct Dec Jan Feb Apr May Jul 10-11 Jul 23-24 and contemplate our altered lives in 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 the “new normal”, surely it would have been these past weeks. Approve Disapprove Don't know Alas, this summer of our coronavirus discontent was also punctuated by Source: Angus Reid Institute

Policy 11 Freeland has a high profile and has ately affected by the pandemic back eral caucus’ bench-strength. It’s mus- carried high approval ratings. But into the workforce, and re-starting cle they’ll need build in order to fend she will come to one of the most de- Canada’s economy from all but a off attacks from a Conservative Party manding and high-stakes jobs in gov- standstill are each daunting enough. refreshed with new leadership. Percentageernment ofalready Canadian carrying children her ages duties 10 – 17 whoFreeland say each may is abe 'big a politicalworry' for dynamo, them (n=650) as Deputy Prime Minister. Tasks such but a super-powered eight-armed Ve- Little wonder then, that Trudeau pro- as transitioning from CERB to an en- dic goddess she is not. Stretching any rogued Parliament, announcing Au- hanced Employment Insurance pro- mortal this thin also highlights what gust 18 the beginning of a new ses- gram, getting women disproportion- has been a chronic deficit in the Lib- sion on September 23, only two days after the previous session was to have resumed. But he also promised an Chart 2: Percentage of Canadian children ages 10 – 17 who say each is early vote of confidence on the new a ‘big worry’ for them. (n=650) May 2020 Speech from the Throne. The opposition Conservatives may not like it, but hey, Stephen Harper set the prec- Missing out on next school year 29% edent in 2008 proroguing a minority House to avoid defeat on a confidence motion. Missing out on this current school year 27% uckily for the Trudeau govern- Other family getting sick 26% ment, what is likely to be the L single biggest stressor for parents over the next three months falls Parents getting sick from COVID 19 22% under provincial jurisdiction. As tantalizing as the prospect of no lon- Parents losing/lost work 20% ger home-schooling the kiddies may be, what appears to be patchwork of at times nebulous, yet-to-be-defined, Getting sick yourself 15% back to school plans from province to province offers little comfort. Tension or arguments where I live 12% Guidance around social bubbles is effectively popped with all the small folk hanging around with each oth- Source: Angus Reid Institute er again. Multi-generational house- Table 1: How Canadians say they have been feeling over the holds that depend on grandpar- past few weeks. August 2020 ents for pick-ups and drop-offs are flummoxed.

COVID Compliance Index Two key upsides of sending kids back

to school: it enables many parents Infection without alternative childcare to go Total The Cynical Fighters Inconsistent Spreaders back to work. It’s also what the kids (n=1,511) (n=704) (n=537) (n=270) want. In the spring, just six weeks into the transition to learning from Worn out/Fatigued 37% 34% 40% 40% home, Canadian children were so Anxious 26% 29% 26% 20% over it. They were missing friends, feeling unmotivated, and worried Grateful 22% 26% 19% 15% about falling behind in class:

Normal 21% 20% 22% 24% Sending kids back to class will represent an unprecedented public health Happy 15% 16% 14% 17% experiment. If it doesn’t go well, expect the grown ups to give their pro- Bored 14% 14% 16% 12% vincial politicians failing grades.

Lonely 11% 11% 11% 11% oronavirus fatigue set in a long time ago, but it’s how Angry 9% 7% 7% 17% C we’re dealing with it that sets Source: Angus Reid Institute segments of Canadian society apart. A

September/October 2020

COVID Compliance Index

Infection Total The Cynical Fighters Inconsistent Spreaders (n=1,511) (n=704) (n=537) (n=270)

Worn out/Fatigued 37% 34% 40% 40%

Anxious 26% 29% 26% 20%

Grateful 22% 26% 19% 15%

Normal 21% 20% 22% 24%

Happy 15% 16% 14% 17%

Bored 14% 14% 16% 12%

Lonely 11% 11% 11% 11%

Angry 9% 7% 7% 17%

12 Table 2: If a vaccine against the coronavirus became available, would of those who say they wouldn’t get

you get vaccinated, or not? August 2020 a vaccine themselves say vaccination should be mandatory… for health Region care workers. Total (n=1,519) BC AB SK MB ON QC ATL Let there be no (n=205) (n=156) (n=127) (n=126) (n=448) (n=300) (n=157) mistake. Canadians Yes, I would get a have been intensely focused vaccination as soon 46% 52% 41% 33% 44% 46% 47% 44% as one became on the greatest concern of available to me their lifetime for the last six

Yes, I would months. A little diversion eventually get a is healthy. vaccination, but 32% 30% 30% 31% 32% 35% 29% 34% would wait a while first

No, I would not get a coronavirus 14% 10% 22% 20% 17% 13% 14% 11% vaccine When the poet Juvenal wrote of Source: Angus Reid Institute “bread and games”—it was to illus- trate the shallowness of a society ne- glecting greater concerns. Let there late summer study revealed that while If there is such a thing as “back to be no mistake. Canadians have been almost half of Canadians continue to normal”—we will not even be able to intensely focused on the greatest con- fight their best fight against commu- dream of it until much awaited vac- cern of their lifetime for the last six nity transmission by practicing fas- cines find their way up our noses or months. A little diversion is healthy. tidious hygiene, wearing masks and jabbed into our arms. It could be a Little wonder then, that hockey fans keeping their social bubbles small, long wait. Whenever this potential- left indefinitely in the penalty box about one-in-five sit on the other end ly life saving substance is made avail- when the NHL suspended its season of the spectrum, and could care less able to the general population, fewer took to the midsummer playoffs like about precautions. These “Cynical than half of Canadians say they’ll be a power forward to Gatorade. The lined up immediately to be vaccinat- Spreaders” are not only more likely to games have been a little odd, what ed. Indeed, more than 20 per cent say socialize with larger groups of people, with no fans and all, but hockey is they either won’t get the vaccine or (often not well known to them, often hockey, and we have been happy to aren’t sure. Willingness to be vacci- inside, without masks), they also take have it. a more jaded view towards the pub- nated varies regionally, which means lic health officials and politicians ex- public health officials in some prov- Sadly for some, the CFL is done for horting them to change their ways. inces will have more work to do than the season, having failed in their bid others if they hope to achieve vac- for $30 million from the Trudeau A number of factors delineate the cination levels above 70 per cent— government. For a government that “Infection fighters” from the “Cyni- the number some say is needed to calculates (and sometime spectacu- cal Spreaders”—but one of the most achieve herd immunity. larly miscalculates) funding decisions striking differences is age. The major- based on political math, bailing out ity of those 65+ are in the uber-cau- hat’s driving some of the the Canadian Football League may tious group. Those aged 18-24 are reticence—or at least the have earned thanks in the end zone, twice as likely as the national aver- W desire to “wait and see”? but not at the ballot box. CFL fans age to be found among the don’t Consider that a majority, six-in-ten— are a passionate bunch. But predomi- care bears. In terms of their mental express worries about side effects nantly over the age of 55, the major- and emotional health, the Cynical from a hypothetical coronavirus vac- ity male, they correlate more closely Spreaders are far more likely to define cine. One-fifth fret the vaccine won’t with voting Conservative than Liber-

“anger” as the emotion they’ve expe- be effective anyway. And so it goes. al NDP or Green. rienced the most lately when com- Shades of anti-vaccination sentiment Contributing Writer Shachi Kurl is pared to other segments. By contrast, towards other illnesses are revealed Executive Director of the Angus Reid Infection Fighters are significantly around a vaccine that doesn’t yet ex- Institute, the national non-profit public more likely to say they’ve been feel- ist. New sickness, old arguments. In opinion research and polling firm based ing “grateful”. one head-shaking finding, 25 percent in Vancouver.

Policy 13 The Way We Wore: THE COVID CRISIS IN CANADA’S CLOTHING INDUSTRY

Among the myriad impacts of the pandemic lockdown on rules of origin, the content of finished Canadian-made clothing was human behaviour, including commercial consumption pat- considered Canadian, irrespective of terns, has been the fact that, whatever you do for a living where it came from. and whatever your gender, chances are you’re not wearing In many respects, the government’s a suit right now. That fundamental, unforeseeable fact has initial response to COVID-19 had to be broadly based: there was an urgent shaken Canada’s clothing manufacturers. Bob Kirke and need at the outset to stabilize person- Eliot Lifson of the Canadian Apparel Federation provide al incomes and corporate finances. a case study from the front line of the pandemic recession. The government correctly rolled out benefits for individuals (CERB) and wage subsidies for firms (CEWS) plus a host of other programs. As we restart, it is becoming clearer that all Bob Kirke feet, apart. You don’t need a new suit sectors of the economy are not equal- for that. ly impacted, nor do they need the and Elliot Lifson same policy responses. You get the idea. A major industry is fter months of difficult trad- in big trouble, facing unprecedented While the apparel sector is among ing conditions, Canada’s ap- and costly change. In Canada, cloth- the most seriously impacted by the parel industry remains one A ing is a very big industry. The Ca- pandemic, firms with stronger bal- of the sectors most impacted by the nadian apparel sector (pre-COVID) ance sheets, deeper management COVID-19 crisis. The industry has employed more than 70,000 people skills, and stronger brands were able restarted operations, and is looking and more than $31 billion in cloth- to move more of their business on- for signs of recovery and a return to ing is sold in Canada each year. Pret- line or pivot to the manufacturing some sort of “normal”. But it is equal- ty good for an industry once written of personal protective equipment ly true that substantial restructuring off for dead. More than anything, the (PPE). Firms that retain signifi- of the industry is looming. clothing industry is diverse: On the cant domestic manufacturing have When you put it in the context of the one hand, the Canadian apparel sec- shown particular resilience through pandemic, and how it’s changed our tor is a global industry with domes- this challenging time. But the reality lives, it’s not very complicated. The tic and offshore production, incredi- is that no industry can lose 30 per- way we were is gone. And so is the ble product development, and strong cent of its annual sales, watch major way we wore. supply chain management capabili- customers fall into insolvency and ties. On the other, we have dynam- not be affected. Offices have been closed since March. ic local designers and innovators. Canadian retail sales of clothing were Canadians haven’t been going to Canadian global clothing brands are down more than 50 percent in March, work, and they don’t need to dress both global and local. up to work from home. Working on and nearly 90 percent in April. Sales Zoom, you don’t even need a jack- In previous years, government-in- for May and June showed signs of re- et, much less a suit. A golf shirt and dustry sectoral groups were a prom- covery, but only when compared to shorts will do just fine. From kinder- inent feature of policy-making. the complete collapse in March and garten to graduate studies, nobody’s In particular, the Sectoral Adviso- April. The absolute decline in appar- been going to school. No dressing ry Group for International Trade el sales has been compounded by the up for the graduation ceremony or (SAGIT) for clothing and footwear, seasonal nature of the merchandise. the prom. Weddings and funerals, played a major positioning role for when they haven’t been cancelled, the clothing industry in the talks o other retail commodity has have been limited to small groups leading to the Canada-US Free Trade encountered similar sales de- of people sitting two metres, or six Agreement in 1987. Under the FTA N clines. Prospects for the rest

September/October 2020 14 We need to confront all of these challenges and we need the government to be a partner in this. One of the reasons for this is the significant impact of government policies, current and planned, on this sector.

hile the government has many mechanisms in W place for economic guidance and consultation with the private sector—the sort of restructuring likely to take place over the coming year within this sector does not fit squarely into the mechanisms the government has created. Economic Strategy Tables and the newly formed Industry Strategy Council focus on A deserted shopping mall in Montreal during the pandemic. At the low point of the lockdown, specific priorities. While the govern- retail clothing sales in Canada were down 50 percent in March and 90 percent in April, before ment rightly supports endeavours recovering somewhat over the summer. Alesia Kazantceva Unsplash photo such as advanced manufacturing, the industry is facing sectoral challeng- of the year are uneven at best, and the faced frequently insurmountable es and this warrants a different type market will stabilize only in 2021. Ca- challenges in accessing financing— of action from government. It is time nadians are prepared to avoid non-es- even when the federal government for the government to complement sential purchases and wherever pos- took on 80 percent of the risk. these longer-term initiatives with tar- sible minimize trips to non-essential geted engagement with sectors facing retail stores. Another issue contributing to the liquidity squeeze facing the sector is specific challenges, with a 12-to-24 squarely in the government’s court. month time horizon to help specific sectors through this crisis. Canadian retail Import duties charged on clothing rep- sales of clothing resent a significant outlay for import- The apparel industry needs to be- were down more than 50 ers, one that is hard to afford in the come more agile, more sustainable, present circumstances. In the case of and more digital—but getting there is percent in March, and Spring 2020 merchandise, many firms no small feat. It is important to align nearly 90 percent in April. imported apparel six to eight months the needs of the industry with the Sales for May and June ago and were assessed duties of 18 per- priorities of the government. For sec- showed signs of recovery, cent at the time of import. It should be tors less impacted by COVID-19, this may not be needed; for ours it is. We but only when compared to noted that imports represent 90 percent of clothing sold in Canada. have a skills challenge, international the complete collapse in trade hurdles, demands from the gov- March and April. These duty payments constrain firms ernment for new, more responsible trying to invest in raw materials sourcing practices, greater sustain- needed for the development of new ability and challenges around digital lines and prevent firms from extend- transformation. ing credit to their retail customers. As we move forward, it will be im- Canadian clothing manufacturers/ portant to look ahead and be proac- importers finance Canadian retail- COVID-19 is not the first challenge tive. We need to bring about a mean- ers by extending credit. When fash- this industry has faced, nor will it be ingful recovery for the sector, while ion retailers restructure or close, the last. COVID has accelerated the helping the industry work through their suppliers are the last to be paid. pace of change in fashion/retail, en- a fundamental restructuring. The fu- While we commend the government abled by technology, and reinforced ture of the Canadian clothing indus- for measures to support Business De- by consumer insecurity. This industry depends on it. velopment Canada and Export De- try is changing at an incredible pace. velopment Canada in lending to Brands are moving to sell directly to Bob Kirke is Executive Director of the Canadian business during the pan- consumers, stronger retailers are re- Canadian Apparel Federation. demic, Canadian financial institu- balancing their supply chains, diver- Elliot Lifson is President of the tions have been less willing partners. sifying their offerings, and boosting Canadian Apparel Federation and Companies connected to retail have e-commerce capabilities. Vice-Chairman of Peerless Clothing.

Policy 15 A Summer Road Trip: Resilience and Hope on The Rock

Vianne Timmons students. A challenge for me, as a new president, was how can I be visible? hen I was turning 15, my I did use Twitter, but not extensive- family left Labrador and ly. I decided on April 1, the first day moved to Nova Scotia. W on the job, to record a video. I filmed This was one of the most traumatic a brief amateur 20-second spot and experiences in my life. Growing up in posted it. I slipped during one of Labrador was a wonderful experience. the takes, and decided to post that We did not have a lot, but we (six chil- one, too. Posting little videos be- dren) had a town full of large families, came a way to connect with the cam- friends and activities. I can honestly pus. People responded positively so say I had a fabulous childhood. I bought my first selfie stick. During I cannot say that about my teenage these unusual times, we all have to years. We moved the first of June and Memorial University President Vianne adapt, learn new skills and connect Timmons on the ferry from Newfoundland my parents decided we did not need to to her native Labrador. A working family’s in different ways. attend school as the year was almost daughter in the Iron Ore Company town of over. That meant for three months I Labrador City, she writes: “I can honestly say I Though unable to meet with students had a fabulous childhood.” Stuart Mason photo in person for the most part, as a pres- knew no one. It was a lonely time. ident they are always on my mind. I share this because resilience comes elocating, buying a house and So, of course, I have been thinking a from many places. It is often built from starting a new job during a lot about the COVID-19 generation— experiences that are positive, but also R pandemic was not easy. There the students of today who are miss- negative. These experiences can de- were small challenges, such as being ing milestones in their lives, such as fine us. Many people are experiencing unable to get my Newfoundland and graduation and attending university things during this pandemic that will Labrador driver’s licence, to bigger for the first time. They have to adapt, have a lasting impact on them. I hope ones, like difficulty getting the inter- learn new skills and figure out differ- resilience will help see them through. net hooked up in my home. These ent ways to connect. I accepted a new job in December issues resolved themselves over time. 2019 as President and Vice-Chancel- But as you will read, not everyone In early July, when lor of Memorial University of New- can get internet issues fixed. Newfoundland foundland in St. John’s. I served as and Labrador lifted some President of University of Regina for As a university president it is import- 11 years prior and had many great ex- ant to have a solid team. I am fortu- pandemic restrictions, I periences during that time. In March nate as I did inherit such a team. It is decided to venture outside of 2020, there were a number of events interesting that—as I had to work vir- St. John’s and see for myself tually—I did not meet the vice-presi- planned at the University of Regina how Memorial University is as a send-off, and events in April at dents in person until the end of June. I realize now how important that per- perceived by communities Memorial to welcome me, including a formal installation. Due to the pan- sonal contact is, as you learn so much throughout the province. demic, all were cancelled. from watching body language and in- teractions. I found that chairing Sen- I had to self-isolate for 14 days when ate was also tricky, as there are close I arrived in the province, so I left Sas- to 100 participants and I have not yet katchewan early and set up in an built relationships with faculty. n early July, when Newfoundland Airbnb in St. John’s. I could work and Labrador lifted some pandem- from home anywhere, so I finished As president, one of the things I en- I ic restrictions, I decided to venture my term at the University of Regina joy immensely is walking through a outside of St. John’s and see for my- while in St. John’s. campus, meeting faculty, staff and self how Memorial University is per-

September/October 2020 16

Dr. Timmons with local doctors, masked for the pandemic, in the town of St. Anthony, in the northern part of the Great Northern Peninsula during her month-long summer tour in July 2020. Stuart Mason photo

ceived by communities throughout port. They are finding solutions, such to figure out the best times to access the province, and if there are things as logging on after midnight to get the internet at home. we can do better. It was a month-long access to somewhat reliable inter- road trip during which my husband net, volunteering to gain experience n the road trip, I returned to and I logged more than 6,000 kilome- when there is no employment and my childhood home in Lab- tres, visiting our multiple campuses, connecting with study groups online. O rador. I stood in front of it training sites and research centres. I and did a little video for Memorial. learned so much about the province, I was overwhelmed with memories the university and, most importantly, I have learned more and struck by the journey I had been the challenges our students are facing. about resilience on. Not just the month-long road trip You can read about the Pye Farm in from this generation of across the province, but also the jour- Labrador, you can view pictures of young people. They are ney of my life that brought me back the Bonne Bay Marine Station and creative, innovative and to the place where I started. It also Aquarium or you can speak with many times frustrated. made me think of our students and graduates of the safety training pro- how this time will define them for gram in Stephenville, but until you They have adapted to one the rest of their lives. see it in person or speak to people on of the most difficult periods the ground, you do not realize the in our lifetime. As I mentioned earlier, I learned amazing work being undertaken and about resilience from an early age. the impact it has. As a new president, But I have learned more about resil- it is important to see the campuses’ ience from this generation of young multiple sites and meet the people people. They are creative, innova- who work there every day. tive and many times frustrated. They The most important aspect of the road ome students even moved to have adapted to one of the most dif- trip was the discussions with students. a different town to get reliable ficult periods in our lifetime. They Many live in Northern, rural or re- S internet access. Their families are still optimistic about their future. mote areas of the province. In a nor- have taken on the cost of housing, The COVID-19 generation is learning mal year, they experience challenges food and expenses so their children about resilience in a complex world. such as leaving their home commu- can start or complete university stud- nities, support networks and friends ies remotely. I met with one father in I have confidence in our future that to attend university. They bear extra St. Anthony on the tip of the Great this generation will leave our world costs for accommodations and travel. Northern Peninsula on the island of better than we left it for them. I can’t

Now, during the pandemic, they are Newfoundland who has three daugh- wait to see where they take us. anxious. Many could not secure em- ters attending Memorial University. Contributing Writer Vianne Timmons ployment during the spring and sum- One daughter relocated to Corner is the new President and Vice mer months as they had done in the Brook on the West Coast, 470 kilo- Chancellor of Memorial University in past. They are struggling with inter- metres away, to access online cours- St, John’s. Previously she was President net accessibility and lack of peer sup- es. The other two daughters have had of University of Regina.

Policy 17

Chrystia Freeland is sworn in as Finance Minister at Rideau Hall. Also at the socially-distanced ceremony, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau (left), Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic Leblanc (centre) and along the wall, Governor General Julie Payette and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Adam Scotti photo The Politics of Prorogation

Proroguing Parliament is not an inherently suspect course Lori Turnbull of action. But because the 2020 prorogation by a minority uring the COVID-19 lock- government has the power to stop a precarious political down, the political land- narrative in its tracks, this prorogation can be interpret- D scape was far less adversar- ial than usual. Governments an- ed as a highly political gambit. The intersection of the nounced financial aid packages and WE scandal with the reality of the Trudeau government’s emergency measures, usually with vulnerability provides an opportunity for reflection on the the support of opposition parties, and political conflicts were general- potential use of prorogation as a political tool. ly put on hold as the country was focused on stopping the spread of COVID-19.

The WE controversy brought a somewhat abrupt end to this political détente. In late June, Prime Min- ister Justin Trudeau announced that the WE Charity would adminis- ter a federal student grant program

September/October 2020 18 that would provide students with paid volunteer opportunities across the country. These positions were meant to provide help to students during the financial crisis and to re- place some of the internships and coop placements that had been lost.

The selection of WE for this respon- sibility raised eyebrows immediately, given the prime minister’s known connections with the organization and its founders, Marc and Craig Kielburger. Trudeau has appeared on stage at WE events several times in the past, as have his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, mother Marga- ret Trudeau, and brother Alexandre Trudeau. Margaret Trudeau received $250,000 in speaking fees and her agent 20 per cent more for 25 speeches over five years, while the PM’s brother Sacha received $28,000 plus agent’s fees for seven speeches in a two-year period, while the PM’s wife was involved as a goodwill ambassa- dor for WE, which understandably re- imbursed her travel and accommoda- tion costs.

Flanked by freshly sworn-in Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominique Leblanc, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces the prorogation of Parliament. On its return, a vote on his Throne Speech could result in the fall of his minority As the data government and an early election. Adam Scotti photo showed that government efforts to flatten the curve in lize the economy and enforce public the circumstances around the de- Canada had been effective, health measures. cision to enter into a contribution agreement with WE Charity to deliv- opposition parties could Therefore, in the darkest days of the er the Canada Student Service Grant pandemic, opposition criticism was get back to business as (CSSG) program, which would have subdued. But the WE story came at usual. connected students with volunteer just the right time for them, when provinces had started reopening opportunities that would have paid their economies, shops and restau- between $1000 and $5000. Witness rants were doing business again, and testimony revealed a lot. Clerk of social distancing restrictions were the Privy Council Ian Shugart and still in place but nowhere near as other senior public servants testified During the lockdown period, oppo- strict. As the data showed that gov- that the recommendation from the sition parties were between a rock ernment efforts to flatten the curve public service was to have WE de- and a hard place: on the one hand, in Canada had been effective, oppo- liver the program, that no other or- it is in the public interest that un- sition parties could get back to busi- ganization including the public ser- precedented levels of government ness as usual. vice was in a position to do this, spending be met with the closest op- and that there was no political in- position scrutiny; on the other, an he House of Commons Stand- terference in the advice. However, economic and public health crisis is ing Committee on Finance government documents that have not the time for the opposition to be T as well as the Committee on been released in connection with seen to be playing politics or ques- Access to Information, Privacy and the story have raised new questions tioning government efforts to stabi- Ethics have both been investigating about communications between the

Policy 19 Kielburgers, the office of now for- Even with the prorogation, newly-released mer Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Minister of Small Business Bardish government documents raise new evidence and Chagger, and the Prime Minister’s questions that will make it difficult for the government to Office. Committee testimony from reset the minds of the public. Morneau was particularly explosive; he told the committee that, on the morning of his testimony, he wrote a cheque to the WE Charity for over $41,000 to close the loop on expenses related to two trips that he and his family took with WE, for whom one signed to allow a new Speech from ics record the key election issue, or of his two daughters served as a vol- the Throne when a government be- whether they will instead focus on unteer while the other worked as a gins a new phase of its mandate; on a broad vision for Canada that pro- contractor. the other end, there is the example vides a true alternative to the Lib- of December 2008 when Prime Min- erals. Chrystia Freeland’s appoint- ister Stephen Harper sought a pro- art of the opposition’s strate- ment as finance minister could rogation to avoid a confidence vote gy has been to drill down into mean a shift to the left for the gov- that his minority government was vulnerabilities in the WE or- ernment, which could potentially P sure to lose. open up space for the newly-brand- ganization itself; after all, the worse WE looks, the harder it is for the ed Conservatives. It is possible that government to defend the choice It is surely at odds the next election will feature a true to trust them with the CSSG pro- choice between competing scenari- with Trudeau’s gram. The public learned in testimo- os for a post-COVID Canada. party’s 2015 pledge to do ny from Michelle Douglas, former Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull, a board chair at WE, that the executive government differently in co-winner of the prestigious Donner was not transparent with the board the use of prorogation. Prize, is Director of the School of about the organization’s finances, There is no reason to Public Administration and Associate Professor at Dalhousie University. which led to her resignation. prorogue other than to The internal structure of the WE or- shut the committees up. ganization, and the relationship between the charity and the profit-making social enterprise, is unorthodox to say the least. Charity Intelligence, an independent organization that assesses the impact of charitable donations, has raised questions about This one isn’t as bad as that, but it’s WE’s financial practices. not good. And it is surely at odds with Trudeau’s party’s 2015 pledge n the day that Morneau was to do government differently in the replaced by Chrystia Free- use of prorogation. There is no rea- O land in the Finance port- son to prorogue other than to shut folio, the prime minister also an- the committees up. The lightly-shuf- nounced that Parliament would fled Trudeau cabinet could have “re- be prorogued until September 23. set” its priorities even as committees This means that the committees’ kept meeting. That said, even with meetings and queries will stop, at the prorogation, newly-released least in the formal sense, until late government documents raise new September. evidence and questions that will make it difficult for the government As many commentators have point- to reset the minds of the public. ed out, this decision might prove to do more harm than good to the There will likely be an election at government. All prorogations land some point in the next 12 months. somewhere on the following con- With a new leader, the Conserva- tinuum: at one end, there are tru- tives will have to choose whether to ly benign, routine prorogations de- try to make the government’s eth-

September/October 2020 20

The Conservative Race

“Now the real work begins,” new Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole declares in his late night victory speech at the party’s leadership meeting. André Forget, CPC photo The Conservatives and Post- Pandemic Politics

The Conservative Party of Canada has chosen Erin Yaroslav Baran O’Toole to lead it into the next election. But the context hen a new party lead- of a pandemic that has killed thousands of Canadians er ascends the stage, it is and drastically realigned the country’s fiscal margin of W normally against a jubi- lant landscape of excitement and re- manoeuvre demands a new perspective. Herewith some newal. Some party rebuilding is re- invaluable free advice from Earnscliffe Principal and quired (after all, leadership contests are often catalyzed by election de- strategy maestro Yaroslav Baran. feat) but Canada’s politics and economy have been blessed with protract- ed relative stability, allowing new leaders to focus internally and culti- vate a vision and brand without external encumbrances. No more. Erin O’Toole takes the helm of his party in an inverted environment: his party is strong, solvent and largely united, but the surrounding policy environment is unstable and unpredictable.

Policy 21 In a transformation of the status quo In a transformation of the status quo unleashed unleashed by a viral outbreak that be- by a viral outbreak that became a global came a global pandemic, today’s chief political concerns are contagion, un- pandemic, today’s chief political concerns are contagion, employment that neared five mil- unemployment that neared five million working-age lion working-age Canadians, a $343 Canadians, a $343 billion deficit, and paralysis of entire billion deficit, and paralysis of entire economic sectors. economic sectors—unimaginable dy- namics just a year ago.

How, then, does a new party leader begin his work? What are the opportunities, if any, to begin building? Following are nine prescriptions for not be the economy (a tradition- and getting to know the country the new leader. al strong suit for the Tories), as in- (and allowing the country to get cumbent governments are being to know them). The theory is that 1. Unite the caucus, and quickly. forgiven these days for not getting Canadians don’t watch CPAC, so Despite the euphoria, leadership everything right amid a pandemic, why bother when you could be races are also divisive and expose and are being rewarded for atten- meeting them instead. Not now. fault lines. The biggest in this race tiveness and compassion. Don’t The government’s deals to dramat- were between the harder-edged try to compete there—particularly ically curtail scrutiny and account- “take back Canada” types (embod- if your opponents wouldn’t think ability, capped by a prorogation to ied first by Pierre Poilievre and lat- twice about outspending you. shut down uncomfortable com- er by O’Toole) versus a more mod- Draw the political contrast not on mittee inquiries, present a rare op- erate conservatism represented by what you will spend on, but on portunity to leverage the very con- Peter MacKay. The divide is more who you are. cept of Parliament. about style and tone than it is about actual policy, and it cannot Each government’s Achilles’ heel is be allowed to fester. This is best well known the day it is first sworn done by reaching across camps in. We don’t know when it will fall, The government’s and welcoming the strongest MPs but we do know why. This govern- deals to into the shadow cabinet, regard- ment’s is elitism and an aloof out- dramatically curtail scrutiny of-touch quality—both themes less of whom they supported in and accountability, capped the race. Magnanimity and out- that have been amply fertilized in stretched hands are the most ef- recent months. O’Toole’s challenge by a prorogation to shut fective political salves. will be to leverage the govern- down uncomfortable ment’s repeated conflict-of-interest committee inquiries, present 2. Do not obsess about the fiscal. scandals to actively portray the pat- a rare opportunity to With an economy struggling to re- tern as a fraud against the govern- cover from the pandemic, and a ment’s stated ideals, which are in leverage the very concept deficit hovering around $343 bil- fact more genuinely embodied in a of Parliament. lion, Conservatives will have to modern, humble and middle-class suppress their instinctive urge to conservatism. With the Aga Khan proclaim gimmicky (and unrealis- Island flap, forgotten French vil- tic) timetables on how quickly they las and sponsored trips, numerous will rebalance the books. In the conflict-of-interest censures, Trum- short term, the economic message pian attempts to lean on and fire at- 5. Broaden the conservative tent should centre on job growth and la- torneys-general, and miscellaneous to more fully include central bour force reintegration. These are a public reminders that the law also and eastern Canada. precursor to levelling off the sup- applies to the ruling clique, a short O’Toole has an opportunity to port spigot anyway, so why risk the five years have offered ample yarn carve out an alternative to what political exposure of sticking to an to weave a cohesive “let them eat old script unsuitable to the times? cake” narrative against the Liberals. has been called “the Laurentian Consensus”. This can be a Nation- 3. Recognize that values will be 4. Recognize that Parliament al Consensus—one that embrac- the strongest contrast point will matter. es a true diversity by including with the Liberals. New leaders often deliberate be- all parts of Canada, where not all Counterintuitively, the most re- tween getting into the House ear- people need to think alike, where warding policy battleground will ly and staying outside Parliament all aspects of history, culture, and

September/October 2020 22 conservatives tend not to have an understanding of how the power game works, tend not to have taken the time to develop a coherent worldview, and tend not to have a firm grasp of the ideological and philosophical underpinnings of their thinking and what they are trying to achieve. O’Toole must take care that that tone and approach not become the dominant one for his caucus.

9. Resist a negative campaign. There is a time and a place for everything. Given their recent con- troversies and polling, the Liberal Party will be flailing and running an aggressively negative campaign. This is a guaranteed opportunity to drive contrast. The angrier and more accusatory his opponents become, O’Toole should reinforce his A family in waiting: Erin O’Toole waiting for the leadership vote results with his wife Rebecca composure and positive messag- and children Mollie and Jack on the balcony of the O’Toole’s campaign’s convention suite at ing. Such contrast is noticeable, Ottawa’s Westin Hotel overlooking Parliament Hill on the afternoon of August 23. André Forget, CPC photo and will play in his favour.

ne view holds that bolster- economic outlook are respected. 7. Remember the North. ing Canada’s conservative movement means aggres- And built on regular people. This The issue set of Canada’s terri- O means competing for blue-col- sively cultivating it as something tories is a natural collection of very distinct—a sharply separate lar and middle-class voters who strengths for a Conservative will- worldview and agenda to compete feel left behind, and building an ing to put in the effort. Between with the Liberals’ practice of fusing entire election strategy around Arctic sovereignty, addressing cen- their ideals and interests with a “Ca- that. Harper did this successfully turies-old marginalization, tech nadian” identity. in 2006. It’s largely competitive connectivity, sustainable resource with the NDP, but it works. development defined by Indige- An alternative approach is more in- nous participation, modernizing cremental and humbler: Work to 6. Work to bridge West and East. the North’s energy profile, and shed the remaining baggage that Despite the prime minister’s prom- environmental conservation, the makes conservatism anachronistic ise of building a Nirvana of fed- North is a perfect opportunity to and stodgy—particularly to young eral-provincial relations and the demonstrate a modern and so- voters. Recognize the fiscal and pol- all-hands-on-deck fed-prov uni- phisticated conservatism in a con- icy circumstances of our times, and leverage the Liberal Party’s self-in- ty necessitated by the COVID-19 temporary context. pandemic, things are decided- flicted wounds against it rather than ly more fractured and adversari- 8. Focus on what you stand for, competing with an alternative worl- al than when Trudeau took office. rather than what you stand dview. Make the contrast less about O’Toole has the political experi- against. policy differences, than about values ence and knows the players well Too many conservatives today fo- and style. This is the winning road

enough to take this on. His style cus on the latter, translating into for O’Toole. is more consensual than confron- a perception that they are always Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran, tational. He is ready to make deals angry and always outsiders. That, Managing Principal of the Earnscliffe rather than waste time in ideolog- in turn, fuels a self-perpetuating Strategy Group in Ottawa, is a ical battle. He also has the stron- cycle of outsider status that pre- former chief of staff to the gest network of experienced ad- vents the Conservative brand from Government House Leader and visors in the land. Here, he can being seen as mainstream. The cy- senior communications strategist on naturally shine. cle must be stopped. Oppositional numerous Conservative campaigns.

Policy 23 Job One for A New Leader— Putting the Party Back Together

If there’s a best practices model for managing the bruised on August 23 was a reflection of the times—a virtual event in deference egos, loyalty rewards and score-settling reflexes of a to the pandemic, with the results of post-leadership Conservative Party, it is arguably the ranked ballots simply announced by victory of Brian Mulroney over Joe Clark in 1983. Veteran party officials. But live audience or not, the immediate challenge for a Tory strategist and Earnscliffe Principal Geoff Norquay, new leader remains as always—unite who survived that transition and thrived through subse- the party. Period. quent leadership changes, provides a blueprint for keeping How a new leader sets about transi- the party together. tion and its success are critical to the party’s and his or her future fortunes. There’s no available handbook to con- sult; each new leader and team must create a plan and get to work. The Geoff Norquay and grow. Serious and lasting damage smart ones will have anticipated the can be done to a party if the new lead- win and put in place a rudimenta- rin O’Toole is the newly crowned er does not act quickly and effectively ry transition plan. If the party is cur- leader of the Conservative Party once it is all over to heal the wounds rently in office, obviously that plan- E and leader of the Official Oppo- left by a leadership race. ning step is both essential and critical: sition. Like all new leaders, he faces a there’s a government to be made over huge set of challenges and opportu- and a country to run. nities, complicated by a minority Serious and lasting The first overtures the new leader government weakened by scandal damage can be done must make are to the other contes- and the country still in the throes to a party if the new leader tants in the race. This is the first crit- of a pandemic. But before he turns does not act quickly and ical step in forming a new and cohe- his mind to those issues, he must en- effectively once it is all over sive team. On both sides—the winner sure a clean launch by healing the and the losers—any lingering animus wounds of the leadership contest to heal the wounds left by a from the campaign must be set aside, and putting the party back togeth- leadership race. and sensitivity shown for any bruised er. Doing so effectively requires all feelings about what might have been. the leadership skills—sensitivity, de- An exchange of views on potential fu- cisiveness, patience, generosity, bal- ture roles is the starting point and may ance and team building. involve an offer of the deputy leader’s The stakes are high for a successful When election day comes and a new position, a preferred cabinet or senior transition: issues from leadership cam- leader is crowned, the contenders critic role, or even some time off to re- paigns that are not put to rest have a gather onstage, the losers pledge their charge batteries. habit of returning and hurting the fealty to the winner and their col- leader and party later on. lective intention to march forward fter he lost the Progressive arm-in- arm toward a brighter future. Conservative Party leadership Leadership contests are risky times for That’s when the new leader faces his A to Brian Mulroney in 1983, Joe political parties. Caucus members are or her first big challenge—putting the Clark chose to step away from day-to- forced to pick sides. Longstanding per- party back together. day politics for a few months and be- sonal friendships can be made or de- came a visiting professor at York Uni- stroyed. Harsh words are spoken, and That’s usually the way when the con- versity in Toronto. Mulroney wisely dirty tricks played. Policy, ideologi- vention is live in one hall. The end gave Clark the room for reflection and cal and regional cleavages can emerge of the Conservative leadership race recovery, and he was soon back to vig-

September/October 2020 24

Joe Clark, with Maureen Mcteer, concedes defeat to Brian Mulroney at Joe Clark and new PC leader Brian Mulroney, campaigning as a united the Progressive Conservative leadership convention in Ottawa, June 11, team before the 1984 election, that saw Mulroney sweep the country, with 1983. Colin McConnell, Toronto Star Photograph Archive, Courtesy of Toronto Clark becoming his foreign affairs minister. Photo courtesy Brian Mulroney Public Library

orously fight the 1984 election. After- from that Shakespearean power strug- that there would be no retributions wards, when he rose for the first time gle—mirrored in the Tony Blair-Gor- based on who had supported whom. in the House as the newly appoint- don Brown internecine Labour battles The new leader also faces potentially ed Minister of External Affairs, his in the UK with similar outcomes—split difficult decisions about how to staff first words—delivered with a broad the Liberal Party for well over a decade. the leader’s office and party head- smile—were, “As I was saying before quarters. The people who have just I was so rudely interrupted….” It was worked so effectively to elect you lead- a pretty good recovery from what had The second set of er may not be the right ones to run been a shattering defeat. essential discussions your office or a federal campaign and Relations between the two top con- for the new leader is with his some may have to be let down easi- tenders after a leadership do not al- or her strongest supporters ly. In addition, key supporters of oth- ways go as smoothly. When Tommy in caucus and in the party. er leadership contenders may have Douglas beat Hazen Argue for the lead- The key point to make is distinguished themselves as skillful ership at the founding convention of managers, communications profes- the NDP in 1961, Argue became a Lib- that this is not a time for sionals or policy advisors, and they eral, later a Liberal Senator. For the triumphalism or hot talk may deserve a key position. Such a rest of his life, locals would cross the about the settling of scores move will help smooth relations with street in Saskatoon rather than greet from the leadership. defeated rivals. him. After attempting to split the par- Next, what is the new leader to do ty with the “Waffle,” Jim Laxer chal- with the leader’s office staff he or she lenged David Lewis for the leadership has just inherited? Some top advisors in 1971. Many in the party considered to the outgoing leader will obviously it such an offensive insult that they depart, but what about the rest: who never spoke to him again. he second set of essential dis- should leave and who should stay? cussions for the new leader is At the Liberal Party leadership de- When Mulroney became leader of with his or her strongest sup- bate in Montreal in 1990 when Jean T the PCs in 1983, I was Clark’s direc- porters in caucus and in the party. The Chrétien refused Paul Martin’s chal- tor of research. The day after his vic- lenge to endorse the Meech Lake Ac- key point to make is that this is not tory, the Toronto Star identified me as cord, hundreds of Martin youth sup- a time for triumphalism or hot talk the second on a list of three or four porters chanted “vendu” (sellout) and about the settling of scores from the senior staffers likely to be “dropped “Judas” at Chrétien, who blamed Mar- leadership. The message needs to be, head-first off the Peace Tower.” I sur- tin and never forgot the slight. Martin “OK, we won, but now I need to bind vived the transition because mem- served as a highly successful finance up the wounds in the party, so I need bers of caucus told the new leader’s minister for nine years under Chré- you to be quiet while I do that.” That’s advisors that my research team had tien, until Martin’s acolytes ultimately the approach Brian Mulroney took in been particularly attentive to serv- pushed too loudly for the prime min- the wake of his leadership victory in ing them in a difficult period over ister to leave, and Chrétien fired him 1983; it calmed everyone down after a the three previous years. When Mul- from cabinet. The discord resulting bruising contest and sent the message roney won in 1984, Hill and party

Policy 25 ry. The Big Blue Machine became the campaign organization that domi- nated Ontario and national politics for a generation, playing a key role in the election of Mulroney in 1984 and becoming the brains trust of “go- to” strategists for many conservative politicians across Canada and in several other countries. Its generations of alumnae—among them Toronto Mayor John Tory—still occupy positions of influence across Canada.

The final set of transition decisions facing a new leader is to form the Incoming Premier Bill Davis and retiring Premier John Robarts in 1971. The passing of the torch shadow cabinet. In addition to re- of a Conservative dynasty that ruled Ontario for more than 40 years. Davis would serve four terms and 14 years in office before retiring undefeated in 1985 as the head of the legendary Big flecting gender and regional balances Blue Machine. Frank Lennon, Toronto Star Photograph Archive, Courtesy of Toronto Public Library and taking aptitudes, experience and expertise of caucus members into ac- staff moved smoothly into PMO and ganizational techniques or innovative count, the leader needs to seek bal- ministers’ offices. policy, communications or fundrais- ance between his or her supporters ing approaches. Leaderships are also and those of other candidates. These Mulroney was magnanimous with often a valuable recruitment tool for appointments will be watched closely others too. Peter Harder had been parties as they bring in new people ea- within the party for favouritism. Clark’s principal secretary and was ger to road-test new approaches and now out of a job as a result of the lead- ideas. That’s the way the “Big Blue Ma- n 2004, following the creation of ership change. The new leader helped chine” (BBM) rose to prominence in the new Conservative Party from Harder with a move to a position in 1971 through the election of Bill Da- the former Reform Alliance and a Crown corporation. Harder quick- I vis as the leader of the Ontario PCs. Progressive Conservatives, newly ly returned to Ottawa within a year, elected leader Stephen Harper faced a served as Chief of Staff to Erik Niel- According to all expectations, Davis difficult set of choices in creating his sen, the deputy prime minister, and should have walked away with the shadow cabinet. Within the new par- ultimately went on to a stellar public 1971 leadership contest to succeed ty’s merged caucus, he had to move service career as the deputy minister John Robarts. Only 41, and with nine high profile Reform Alliance critics of several major departments in the years as a highly successful Minister of out of their positions to make way governments of Jean Chrétien and Education and University Affairs, he for the incoming PC MPs. This was Stephen Harper. was the logical successor. On a snowy achieved with significant sensitivi- night at Maple Leaf Gardens at the When Justin Trudeau moved into ty on the leader’s part and generosity end of an old-style delegated conven- government in 2015, he and his se- tion, Davis eventually emerged victo- on the part of those who were making nior advisors went out of their way rious, but the final result was a squeak- way for the newcomers. Many people to make a clean break with the past. er, with a razor-thin 44-vote plurality put water in their wine to make a bold They studiously avoided bringing in over cabinet colleague Allan Lawrence. experiment work. battle tested staffers from the Martin and Chrétien eras to PMO and min- The principals behind the BBM, Dal- Like everyone else in a new job, new isters’ offices. The result was that in ton Camp and Norman Atkins, were leaders never get a second chance to its early days, the new government well-known to Davis and the PCs make a first impression. Canadians lacked exempt staff with the neces- (they were behind Robert Stanfield’s will be watching how the new Con- sary institutional knowledge of how federal leadership victory in 1967), servative leader handles his first big the federal government worked, but Davis was wary about Camp’s very challenge. which created problems both inter- public campaign against the leader- Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay, nally for lack of experience and exter- ship of John Diefenbaker and believed a Principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy nally as the veterans left out became their support would be toxic. As a re- Group in Ottawa, was research director a chorus of unattributed critics. sult, they supported Lawrence, and al- for Conservative Leader Joe Clark, senior most defeated Davis. eadership races can bring out adviser on social policy to Prime Minister the worst in parties, but they Immediately following the leader- Brian Mulroney, and later was Director L can also bring out the best, such ship, Davis brought Camp and At- of Communications in opposition under as the testing of ground-breaking or- kins onside and the rest was histo- Stephen Harper.

September/October 2020 26 Erin O’Toole’s Political, Policy and Pandemic Challenges

After a marathon vote-counting drama that saw conven- While this race has proven far less divisive and the party less conflicted tional wisdom overturned, Erin O’Toole was elected leader than in 2017, there is no denying the of the Conservative Party of Canada on the third ballot challenge that O’Toole faces. The ev- by a clear margin of 57 to 43 percent over Peter MacKay. er-present divisions between social conservatives and the rest of the party The new leader faces unique challenges unforeseen just have quieted down, but by no means months ago. With the COVID-19 pandemic still taking have they disappeared. O’Toole needs a big- tent approach that brings Con- Canadian lives and upending our economy, politics and servative supporters onboard while governance, O’Toole becomes Opposition Leader at a mo- acknowledging the essential need to ment unprecedented outside of wartime. modernize and align with Canadians’ contemporary priorities. Managing this uneasy alliance is always difficult, and some leaders have Jaime Watt carrying 57 Canadians. We were con- fared better than others. The reality is templating which high-end area code that while O’Toole owes his victory to o the victor belong the spoils. in Canada Prince Harry and Meghan social conservatives, he is not one of But also—as Erin O’Toole is Markle might land in. Simply put, we them. The truth is O’Toole has always T about to learn—the toil. had no idea what was coming. been a progressive and so he will have O’Toole has won the leadership of the to work to meaningfully address their Conservative Party of Canada in what O’Toole needs a concerns while not forgetting the three quarters of members who opted was surely the strangest partisan com- big- tent approach petition in our history. New and rel- for a moderate, modern party. atively unknown candidates, the im- that brings Conservative He seemed to understand that in his pact of COVID-19 on campaigning, supporters onboard while victory speech, when he established a and the persistent hanging-on of the acknowledging the essential land speed record for distancing him- outgoing leader all contributed to a need to modernize and self from social conservative allies and contest about as interesting as the live staked out a big blue tent. stream footage of the party’s empty align with Canadians’ contemporary priorities. Especially if there is an impending fed- ballot vault in Ottawa. eral election, it will be quite a balanc- With a determined effort and a per- ing act for O’Toole to conclusively put sistent focus on down-ballot support to bed social issues like equal marriage from social conservatives, O’Toole has and reproductive rights, as Andrew earned his win. But with that triumph Scheer was neither able nor seriously come serious challenges—challenges willing to do. It has become increas- that go well beyond the usual uphill ut the world today looks very ingly awkward to watch Conservatives battle facing a new leader. different, and it will take some across Canada contort themselves time for our federal political par- around these issues. By now, it is a trope to point out just B ties to adjust. Now that Erin O’Toole is how much the world has changed in ndrew Scheer’s refusal to prop- leading the Conservatives, what chal- 2020. But still, consider how things erly address climate change lenges does he face in the party, in the looked when O’Toole threw his hat in was undoubtedly a factor in House, and across the country—and A the ring to be leader in January. Ca- his political demise. As Canadians how should he address them? nadians were focused on Iran’s down- overwhelmingly accept the scientific ing of a Ukrainian passenger plane First of all, the party. consensus on climate change, it’s no

Policy 27 longer feasible for the Conservative O’Toole faces challenges across the Party to ignore their clarion call for country, not least of which being ex- some form of climate action. O’Toole actly how he will grapple with the ran with a plan to reduce emissions role of Opposition leader during a in Canada and around the world, but global pandemic and the vicissitudes he would be wise to promptly begin that entails. working with other Conservatives to First, he will need to reckon with a come up with a serious alternative to new, post-pandemic politics. Social the Liberals’ carbon tax. attitudes in Canada and around the In this area, O’Toole has an advan- world have changed, largely in re- tage over his competitors. He pro- sponse to the grave inequalities and vided a refreshing dose of realism injustices revealed by COVID-19. The on the campaign trail by acknowl- issues, too, have changed along with edging that the Tories won’t win an- the tone of conversation. So have Ca- other election without a real climate nadians’ expectations of their leaders policy that speaks to Canadians. And and parties. Here, again, O’Toole will he’s right. We simply cannot afford need to address these challenges, in to lose another election by refusing Erin O’Toole introduces himself to the national part by reconciling his longstanding to address the urgency of a planetary, media at his first Ottawa news conference as identity as a moderate voice from On- Conservative Leader on August 25. existential threat. André Forget, CPC photo tario, with his recent courtship of the But 2020 has also brought unprec- party’s right-wing. edented, rather than familiar, chal- and has served as a cabinet minister. The final and, it seems to me, most lenges to the party. As COVID-19 has Unlike MacKay or Leslyn Lewis, he significant challenge O’Toole faces is brought us further apart through so- also has the authority and platform really how to “own” his role as leader cial distancing measures, the typi- provided by a seat in the House of of the Opposition while preparing to cal vehicles for assembling support- Commons, starting on day one. contest a federal election. ers and reaching donors are no longer Conservatives are also eager to have I believe that Canadians are hoping an option. Tactics will need to adapt, their leader on the Hill—at least vir- for more than just a candidate for and quickly at that. There will be no tually—so that he can champion the prime minister. They want someone mass conventions to rally party mem- party’s efforts to keep the government who will hold Justin Trudeau to ac- bers, no glad-handing with donors in check. For months, the job has fall- count for his actions. Someone to re- or influential meetings of minds in en to Pierre Poilievre as shadow min- mind them what the Leader of Her stuffy rooms. But O’Toole has already ister of finance. But with a new lead- Majesty’s Official Opposition is meant figured that out. Rather than being er elected in a time of national—and to do: contest fiscal overreach, press stymied by the restrictions of the vi- global—crisis, it is high time for the the government on their response to rus over his campaign, he figured out leader of the Opposition to fulfil the this pandemic and ensure that the how to use it to his advantage. A judo very essence of the role by providing mad rush of COVID legislation does move, if you will. He quickly mas- oversight and acting as a check to the not go without serious oversight. tered the art of Zoom. His campaign government’s impulses. I look for- If O’Toole can effectively do that while team used technology skillfully and ward to Erin O’Toole’s maiden ques- whirring up the party apparatus for a O’Toole found his footing in a whole tion period, as do, I’m sure, many fight, he stands a real shot at convinc- new way of campaigning. Canadians who feel that an effective ing Canadians of the imperative for a So, he has an advantage over Justin foil to Justin Trudeau has been sorely Conservative government. And if the Trudeau in that he’s already figured lacking in the green chamber. NDP and Bloc are eager to play ball, it out how to campaign outside of tradi- Erin O’Toole will also have to reckon could be as early as next fall. tional channels—and win. In his lead- with a Parliament that has changed in It will be gruelling work, but his task ership race, he Zoom-called folks in ev- remarkable ways since he first took of- couldn’t be more essential—for Con- ery low-turnout riding, and he’s sure fice in 2012. The Bloc Québécois are servatives and more importantly, for to do the same in a federal election. back to stay it seems, and the new all Canadians. e know there will be chal- Tory leader will need to get better ac- Contributing Writer Jaime Watt, lenges for O’Toole across quainted with Yves-François Blanchet Executive Chairman of Navigator Ltd., the board, and the House and his colleagues in relatively short W order, if he is going to have any say in a Toronto-based national public affairs is no exception. No one doubts making the weather. consulting firm, is a Sunday columnist O’Toole’s bona fides when it comes to for the Toronto Star, and frequent governing and parliamentary proce- But aside from issues in the party and television commentator from the dure—he’s been an MP for eight years the swift action needed in the House, moderate Conservative perspective.

September/October 2020 28

Guest Column / Lee Richardson Jock Osler, Beloved Politico. Honestly. Jock Osler, a popular figure of national and Alberta political life who in Washington. He now says of Jock, passed away August 5 at 83, bequeathed a bipartisan legacy of “respect, “He had an easy charm, a positive atti- courtesy and generosity of spirit,” writes his longtime friend Lee Rich- tude, and that Alberta work ethic … he was a natural fit in Washington.” ardson, with whom former prime ministers Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney shared their memories. Even in the sadness of his recent passing, it’s hard to think of Jock and not smile. He’ll be deeply missed for his reached out again to assist then-rook- ock Osler lived on the sunny side sense of humour, his kindness, and ie candidate Joe Clark in the 1972 of the street. Through six decades his contribution to community, par- J of journalism and political life, federal election. ticularly here in Calgary. he was always positive, never off-balance—the kind of person people even years and two elections lat- An icon of the Calgary Stampede as, liked to be around. To adapt an aph- er, Joe was prime minister of with his trademark baritone, voice orism, he was always the same way S Canada with Jock at his side, a of the Grandstand show, Jock was a trusted advisor. Of his loyal friend, twice—collegial, reflexively helpful, community builder, and an animator Clark remembers now, “There is an in- insightful and unfailingly, often hi- in the theatre scene in Calgary. Jock telligence of knowing things, and there and Diana gave generously of their lariously, honest. is an understanding of things. That time and treasure to numerous arts While there were other talented writ- was the essential part of his advice.” and community groups across the ers, superb political strategists and tac- Through all the years in Ottawa, the city. Their four children, Will, Suzy, ticians of all stripes in all parties, none exhilarating wins and the devastating Ted and John, were so loyal to Jock could emulate Jock’s breadth of spirit losses, the party leadership contests that, as reported by columnist Don and joie de vivre. He was fun, with a ra- and general elections, in government Braid on his passing, they drew straws zor-sharp mind, a wry self-deprecating or in Opposition, Jock Osler was re- in 2005 to see not who would lose wit, and an encyclopedic knowledge spected and admired on both sides of and donate a kidney to their dad, but of Canadian political history. the House and in the Press Gallery for who would win and donate a kidney. But the thing about Jock was this: he his decency, ethics and courtesy to all. While Calgary went through our respected everyone. Allies and op- When Clark lost the hard-fought eternal boom and bust cycles, every ponents alike were treated with the 1983 leadership battle to Brian Mul- struggling arts group in the city want- same respect, courtesy and generosi- roney, the Progressive Conservative ed Jock on their board at the bottom ty of spirit. He regarded everyone he Party was fractured and divided. of the cycle, both for his sage advice worked with as a colleague and made and connections, but probably even common cause with all for the job at With a general election looming, it more for his calming influence. was imperative the former leader and hand in any election, and later for Above all, he loved and was cherished the good of the country. the newly elected Mulroney resolve their differences and unite their re- by his family. He was a gentleman Perhaps prophetic was an encounter spective supporters. When Mulroney in the finest sense of the word and a shortly after Jock began his career in graciously extended the olive branch, shining example of a life well lived. the newsroom of the Calgary Herald. Clark did not hesitate in response. Jock, his beloved Diana and wonder- The paper hired a young Joe Clark for The efforts of his collegial confidant, ful family have become a part of mod- the summer, (the future prime minis- Jock Osler, were significant in that ern Calgary history. His legacy will ter remembers being referred to as ei- successful rapprochement. live on in a grateful community. ther, “copy boy” or “coffee boy”). During the early months of the new Lee Richardson, a Conservative MP Clark recalls today: “Jock was the Mulroney government’s efforts to re- during the Mulroney and Harper years, first to reach out, to take me in and new positive Canada-US relations with was previously chief of staff to Alberta look after me and others in a hectic the White House and on Capitol Hill, Premier Peter Lougheed, and later a newsroom. He had a quality, a capac- Mulroney appointed Jock minister director of the Calgary Stampede. ity to bring the team together.” Jock counsellor in the Canadian Embassy He knew Jock Osler all along the way.

Policy 29

Race for the White House

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his choice for vice president, Sen. Kamala Harris, together in his hometown in Delaware on August 12. She makes history as the first Black and South Asian woman nominated for Veep in American history. Joe Biden Flickr photo Reports of the Death of America Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

As one of the most important US presidential elections Sarah Goldfeder in history approaches on November 3, Donald Trump is he United States sits on the addressing the gap between more than one thousand eve of an election that many days of degradation and disruption and plausible T pundits have identified as the most important in our history. The electability by pre-emptively attacking the integrity of results of this election will no doubt the result. Veteran US diplomat and now Ottawa-based be challenged, prolonging the uncertainty and contributing to division. Earnscliffe Principal Sarah Goldfeder writes that Ameri- The popular vote may not determine cans have never been in better fighting shape to confront who wins the White House—mak- this challenge. ing this the third time in this century the archaic rules of the grand com- promise protected the rural minority in the face of the more progressive urban centres. Challenges will no doubt be filed regarding vote sup- pression and fraud.

The intensity of activity in America surrounding this election has been

September/October 2020 30 long-absent from American elector- al politics. Perhaps it is partially because Americans, due to the pandemic, have been at home, watching the news more. Perhaps it is that Americans are participating more in the conversation about governance because in a pandemic, we have an attachment to government that we might not have had before. And of course, there is Donald Trump, who has invigorated the American elec- torate since his entrance into the Re- publican nomination race in 2015. Americans have disagreed about his approach from day one, but his cha- otic approach to controlling the virus has led to a yo-yo effect that is progressively eroding away what limited faith Americans have in government. Americans have long been suspicious of government, with the most recent slide in trust having be- Protesters took to the streets of Seattle to march on May 30 in response to the death of gun in 2000 (Pew Trust in Govern- George Floyd, a Black man who was killed while being taken into custody by police in ment 1958-2019) and continuing Minneapolis, Minnesota. Kelly Kline Flickr photo throughout both this administration and the last. At the same time the failures to adequately supply hos- experiment that is the United States of didate that had no political ideology pitals, support businesses, and pro- America was founded on the idea that beyond being the anti-Obama. vide for individuals as they have lost its citizens would disagree. their income, have illustrated the In the four years of the Republican power and importance of the insti- The notion that there is more than Party being molded into this some- tutions of government. one way to view the world, to under- thing new, something absent a co- stand the priorities of government, herent requirement beyond loyalty and to map the best pathway for a to the president, the party no lon- That Americans do country’s citizens is foundational to ger looks familiar to many. How- not always agree democracy. Fundamental to great ever, without a champion of their on the best path forward, democracies is that politics and gov- own to stand up to the battle cries of the president, they have chosen whether it be a pandemic ernment is for all, not just for political scientists. Critiques that focus power over good governance. The response, global on the intensity of disagreement of few Republicans that have stood up engagement, race relations, American voters and the repercus- to the president have been pushed reproductive rights, or the sions of that intensity miss the un- aside not just by the White House, conduct of immigration derlying important character of the but by their colleagues in the House United States. and Senate. Meanwhile, in 2018, the officials, should surprise pendulum swung in many congres-

no one. he underlying chaos of the sional districts towards more progressive Democrats, but the race for Trump administration has en- the presidential candidacy in 2020 ergized both Republicans and T has moved the Democrats back into Democrats as they head into the the centre. 2020 contest. The Trump adminis- That Americans do not always agree tration is a reflection of the pendu- How is the pandemic influencing on the best path forward, whether it lum of democracy. After eight years this election? COVID-19 has not be a pandemic response, global en- of the Obama administration exercis- proven to be an equitable disease. gagement, race relations, reproductive ing executive power to entrench pro- For a whole host of reasons, the vi- rights, or the conduct of immigration gressive values, those that disagreed rus affects Black Americans, more of- officials, should surprise no one. The with that vision united behind a can- ten and more virulently than white

Policy 31 Americans. The virus brought to the now, with death rates and infection tration has taken advantage of many surface a litany of evidence of sys- rates at global records, many Amer- of the weak spots of the scaffolding temic racism. Notably, Black Amer- icans repeat the president’s tweet that holds the government account- icans were more likely to have been from the early days of spring, “WE able to the people. That doesn’t unemployed as an effect of the shut- CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE mean those weak spots won’t be downs across the country, and at the THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF.” shored up. The consequence so far same time, were more likely to be has been a strengthening of the lo- the jobs with high risks of exposure his summer, what should have cal politicians, governors and may- to the virus. been a busy and energized cam- ors of America. paign season with buses and Add to that cauldron of inequity: the T planes crisscrossing the continent, murder of George Floyd, the Black has been rendered virtual. With a man asphyxiated by a white police captive audience of millions on so- From outside the officer in Minneapolis on Memori- cial media platforms, Trump has country’s borders, al Day; three white men shooting worked to rally his base in the heart- it may look like America is a Ahmaud Aubery while he jogged land, and Joe Biden and Kamala Har- through his own neighborhood in unraveling. But inside, ris have made history. Polling re- Georgia; and a white woman, Amy Americans remain resilient. flects a still-divided America. With Cooper, who called the New York the margins between the two cam- Even while the president City Police with a complaint about a paigns hovering in the low double stokes division, Americans Black man, Christian Cooper, when digits, it is clear this will be a fight to find unity of purpose. This he asked her to follow the rules and the finish. A handful of states, as in leash her dog. The headlines came is not an unraveling; this is previous years, look to determine the rapidly, while Americans sat at outcome and those include many an opportunity. home, on TV, Twitter, and Tiktok, on the northern border; Minnesota, and the rage boiled over. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine. Florida n the months before a pivotal will once again take centre stage as a election and in the middle of a must-win state with the added chal- rom outside the country’s bor- I pandemic, Americans took to the lenge of many absentee voters. The ders, it may look like Ameri- streets and demanded that govern- president’s war on vote-by-mail has ca is unraveling. But inside, ment be accountable. The Black lives F been elevated to new heights by his Americans remain resilient. Even Matter movement has moved beyond current attempted weaponization while the president stokes division, protesting about police brutality to of the US Postal Service. Little won- Americans find unity of purpose. demanding that the police, as an in- der, as the states of the west coast— This is not an unraveling; this is an stitution, be replaced. The argument all governed by Democrats—are all opportunity. Americans are not ones that the law enforcement system is vote-by-mail. to forego opportunity. so broken it cannot be fixed has res- As has been consistently made clear onated across communities from Cal- There is a window here that comes in so many, previously unimag- ifornia to Chicago to Minnesota to along once a generation and is gen- inable ways during Trump’s presi- Washington D.C. The argument that erally preceded by tragedy and strife. dency, democracy is messy. And the the people are not the problem, that While some will argue that this mo- adjustments that have been made the system is the problem, provides a ment is different somehow because policy path forward. over time may have actually contributed to the current situation. Americans have grown lazy and com- As the world watched, an American Arguably, the deployment of execu- placent, the truth is that Americans president failed to take on the usu- tive orders to force policy that could have never been more ready—never al mantle of leadership as COVID-19 not find its way through the legis- been in better fighting shape. spread globally. Not only did Ameri- lative branch was a technique the Contributing Writer Sarah Goldfeder, ca fail to take on its usual supporting Trump Administration learned from a principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy efforts to contain this virus, it gave the Obama Administration. The re- Group in Ottawa, is a former US State up on its own domestic response. De- sults of those orders have been dis- Department Official and adviser to spite mixed messages and disparity ruptive—forming an unstable foun- two US Ambassadors to Canada. of experience, it turns out that many dation for the policy environment. agreed with the president, many be- The power of one president to shape lieved the severity of the situation the judicial branch for a generation to be a figment of the imagination is also outsized and threatens that of the mainstream media. And even unstable foundation. This adminis-

September/October 2020 32

Column / Don Newman Beyond the Election, the China Card

hey come along from time to course in ways that may live on even s Canada confronts the chal- time. Politicians who change if he loses to Joe Biden, a more intelli- lenges of this new world, now T the dialogue, change how the gent, more capable and more reason- A is the time for this country to political conversation is conducted, able successor. change its political dialogue. It doesn’t whose influence outlasts their time necessarily take a change in personali- in office and sets the benchmarks he fact is that most politicians ties but it does take a change from the against which people then measure who change the dialogue arrive “feel good” Canada to the “be real” success. In Canada two come easily to T at a time when the dialogue is Canada. China and the US and their mind. Pierre Trudeau changed Can- starting to change anyway. In many disputes provide the first opportunity ada so that no future prime minister ways, they are facilitators rather than to do that. innovators. Donald Trump has been would be unable to speak French. One The Meng case is not primarily a legal that in spades, going far beyond result was that when Trudeau’s time one as the government has treated it. where much of the American public ran out, bilingual Brian Mulroney was It is a geopolitical one in which Cana- has been, but nevertheless advanc- chosen, in 1983, to lead the Progres- da as well as the two principal players ing familiar themes which have been sive Conservative Party, becoming the have a stake. Beijing is eager to have only Quebec native to lead that party growing in the American psyche for many years. Meng back and are playing hardball to two majority governments. to get her. We should play hardball For his part, Mulroney then changed So, Canadians shouldn’t expect an back. The Chinese don’t participate in the economic dialogue in the country. instant revival of the “special rela- simultaneous release of people being tionship” that Trump has so derid- Canada had been growing increasing- detained because they think they lose ed, notwithstanding the negotiating ly nationalist economically. Mulroney face. Well, this time we should tell success of the new NAFTA. The capri- championed free trade with the Unit- them they will have to release the Ca- cious tariffs on Canadian aluminum ed States and won re-election in 1988 nadians simultaneously with Meng or he has imposed to help his re-elec- election doing so. The Liberals who they won’t get her back. tion effort may not suddenly disap- had opposed free trade and fought pear. And don’t expect the American If the exchange happens, the Ameri- against it in the election then became security umbrella to suddenly unfold cans will be annoyed. But when the the North American Free Trade Agree- again across Canada with the anti-bal- exchange is complete, we will be able ment’s biggest champions when they listic missile system protecting targets to do what we already want to; ex- formed government in 1993. in our country as well as the US On clude Huawei from our 5G wireless Margaret Thatcher changed the polit- missile defence, we will actually have network as the US wants. That will ical dialogue in Britain when she be- to sign on and pony up a percentage make Washington happy. came prime minister in 1979. Thirty of the cost to be covered. To follow that course would be to make years later, much of the change she And most importantly, America-Chi- our own foreign policy. Ultimately in wrought still resonates. And in the na tensions will intensify. This will a US-China confrontation we are on US, Ronald Reagan upended almost have ramifications for the entire the American side. But we can try to 50 years of American political think- world, but particularly for Cana- be on it on our own terms. Whomever ing stretching from the New Deal in da. Trump is building his re-election wins in the United States in November the 1930s with the conservative ideas campaign around confronting Chi- is going to create challenges for Can- he espoused though didn’t necessarily na. Canada is already caught in the ada. But if we meet them on our own always follow. middle of the dispute, detaining Hua- conditions, that can be a tremendous

Now we have another American presi- wei CFO Meng Wanzhou on an ex- opportunity as well. dent who has changed the game. Don- tradition request from the US, while Columnist Don Newman, Executive ald Trump is seeking re-election this China holds two Canadians—Mi- Vice President of Rubicon Strategies in fall. Whether or not he wins he has chael Spavor and Michael Kovrig— Ottawa, is a lifetime member of the impacted the American political dis- seized in retaliation. Parliamentary Press Gallery.

Policy 33

Canada and the World

AFN National Chief Perry Bellegarde at the table of the First Ministers Meeting on Indigenous affairs in 2017. Adam Scotti photo. First Nations Self-Policing: A LEGACY OF SUCCESS, AND A ROAD TO HEALING

The principles and practices of First Nations self-policing Perry Bellegarde are informed by spirituality, nature, history and, above áλíya̓ sila (Frank Brown), a her- all, relationality—the concept of being in “right relations” editary chief of the Heiltsuk with those around you. At a time when conventional First Nation on the north coast ofλ British Columbia, has made ex- policing practices are producing especially alarming out- traordinary contributions to the comes for Black and Indigenous people amid a worldwide health and well-being of his people. outcry for reform, First Nations justice provides an alter- But his life could have turned out very differently. At 14, λáλíya̓ sila was native approach that works. convicted of armed robbery and was about to be sent away to juvenile de- tention when his family request- ed that Heiltsuk law be followed instead. As a result, the young man was exiled to an island within Heiltsuk territory, to reflect on his crime, to learn his own traditions, and to heal. λáλíya̓ sila credits this intervention for turning his life around.

September/October 2020 34 Frank Brown’s story has been on my mind lately. Recent high- profile incidents of police violence against First Nations women and men, and the catalyzing spark of Black Lives Matter, have focused long-overdue attention on the reality that First Nations continue to be both dangerously overpoliced and tragically under-protected. It’s clear that immediate action is needed to hold police accountable and to build and strengthen alternatives to respond to individuals in crisis. However, in this moment of reckoning, we must remember that First Nations have traditions of law and order—traditions that are able to generate heal- Indigenous citizens lead a healing walk on June 13 in honour of Chantel Moore, shot five times ing rather than multiplying tragedy. by a local policeman during a “wellness check” in the middle of the night at her apartment in Edmunston, N.B., in June. Chief Bellegarde writes: “The example of First Nations policing offers not only a path to reform, but a best practices model.” CP photo. Police violence against First times more likely than a white person spond to a crisis of violence in Win- Nations women and men, to have been shot and killed by a po- nipeg’s inner city, there are numer- lice officer since 2017. ous, dramatic examples of how we and the catalyzing spark of have upheld our laws and worked to Black Lives Matter, have These tragedies crystallize the urgent keep our communities safe. There are need for reform. At a time when pub- also countless subtle and everyday focused long-overdue lic attention worldwide has been gal- attention on the reality that ways in which conflicts are mediated vanized by the death of George Floyd and grievances healed through the First Nations continue to be and in Canada by these tragically vi- guidance of our Elders. both dangerously olent encounters between police and First Nations individuals, the exam- Where these traditions continue overpoliced and tragically to be practised, they may go unno- ple of First Nations policing offers not under-protected. only a path to reform but a best prac- ticed and unremarked precisely be- tices model, adaptable and scalable cause they have been so effective at beyond our communities. keeping the peace. What is noticed, instead, is the way that safety and s University of Victoria Law wellness are jeopardized when these Professor John Borrows and traditions break down. Much like In June, 26-year-old Chantel Moore others have written, First Na- clean water, when Indigenous jus- was killed by police in New Bruns- A tice systems are not maintained—or tions legal orders come from differ- wick after reportedly brandishing a ent sources than the more familiar when they’ve been sabotaged or tak- knife during a “wellness check” at laws of the Criminal Code, including en away—we’re suddenly confront- her apartment in the middle of the spiritual teachings, traditional stories, ed with the life-and-death conse- night. A member of the Tla-o-qui- and watching and learning from na- quences of their absence. aht First Nation, a neighbour to the ture. Creator’s Law, Natural Law and south of Frank Brown’s Heiltsuk Na- First-Nations’ Law all work together to oday, First Nations commu- tion, she had recently moved to Ed- encourage people to live in harmony. nities and individuals are liv- munston to be closer to her mother Relationality is key. To be in “right re- T ing through a crisis that is not and six-year old daughter. Not two lations” with those around you is the of their making. Canada’s efforts to weeks later, Rodney Levi, a member foundation of wellness and safety. eradicate the cultures, languages, and of the Metepenagiag First Nation, was laws that define First Nations have re- shot and killed by an RCMP officer These laws and traditions are resil- sulted in profound intergeneration- during an incident near Miramichi, ient. From the Dog Soldier societ- al trauma. They have also put many N.B. A CTV News analysis published ies that fiercely resisted colonial vi- of our people, especially our youth, in June showed that an Indigenous olence in the 1800s to the Bear Clan on a collision course with a foreign person in Canada was more than 10 Patrol formed in the 1990’s to restructure of law and order that rare-

Policy 35 ly demonstrates meaningful under- I have no doubt that there are a great many standing of our reality, real capacity police officers out there who genuinely want to be to meet the needs of our people, or accountability to our communities. part of the solution. The trouble is that the system itself works to prevent them becoming the kind of police Canadians need to appreciate that the history of policing in this country officers they want to be. is part of a larger story of the violent denial of our inherent rights in support of colonialism, itself inherently racist. The Truth and Reconciliation From my own experience, I have no for far too long and the situation is Commission concluded that the res- doubt that there are a great many particularly concerning for First Na- idential school system, and myriad police officers out there who genu- tions. One consequence is that police other colonial laws and policies, were inely want to be part of the solution. are filling the gaps, even though they part of a systematic effort to seize our The trouble is that the system itself don’t have the training or expertise lands and wipe out First Nations as works to prevent them becoming the needed. And their very presence can distinct cultures and peoples. Police kind of police officers they want to be triggering for individuals in crisis, were used to overthrow Indigenous be and that our communities need contributing to the tragic escalation structures and traditions of law and and deserve. of those encounters. order and, in their place, impose laws aimed at our destruction. Officers are routinely sent to our com- I don’t believe that the solution to munities with limited prior knowl- this crisis is to simply transfer re- In fact, the Royal Canadian Mount- edge of First Nations cultures and sources from policing to social ser- ed Police, was created explicitly for little or no experience working in a vices. In First Nations communities, this purpose. Their history includes First Nations context. Indeed, a great policing is also underfunded and un- confining First Nations to reserva- many RCMP sent to more remote and der-resourced, both in comparison to tions while forcibly removing our isolated communities are fresh out of services provided to other communi- children to attend the residential Depot with little or no prior hands- ties and in comparison to our needs. schools. There’s good reason why on experience of any kind. Rather, what is needed is a different my Carrier Sekani sisters and broth- model of policing that is able to meet They often live apart from our people ers in British Columbia know the the real needs of First Nations, that is in the equivalent of gated commu- RCMP in their own language not as prepared to work in partnership with nities that only reinforce the gulf of “friends” or “relations” but as “those our communities, and that is ade- misunderstanding and mistrust. Fur- who take us away.” quately resourced to succeed. thermore, these officers are inevita- Today, many First Nations women bly moved on to other communities Today, many First Nations adminis- and men continue to learn through before they have the chance to devel- ter their own police services, partic- hard experience to mistrust and fear op the relationships on which trust ularly in Quebec and Ontario. The the police. The tragic reality is those and effective policing are built. benefits have been demonstrated time and again. Consider the Nish- incidents of police violence and These problems are compounded nawbe Aski Police Service in northern abuse that come to public attention by an increasingly militarized polic- Ontario. In twenty-six years of polic- because they are caught on camera ing model that emphasizes capacity ing 38,000 people in 34 communities are just a small part of a much wider to exercise overwhelming force rath- they have never shot or killed anyone pattern that is all-too-familiar to ever than the skills to de-escalate and and never had an officer killed in the ery First Nations person in Canada. resolve conflict peaceably. There line of duty. is something wrong when grand- n my life, I have had the good mothers defending rights affirmed I have strongly advocated to Pub- fortune to also experience anoth- in the Constitution and internation- lic Safety Minister Bill Blair that First I er side of policing. I have three al human rights law are confront- Nations-controlled and administered brothers who have served with dis- ed by police officers armed for mili- police services be recognized as an es- tinction in the RCMP, each having re- tary combat. There is also something sential service. In June, Minister Blair ceived their long-term service medal. I profoundly and dangerously wrong told the House of Commons that the have also known many officers, Indig- when armed law enforcement of- federal government would work “to enous and non-Indigenous, who are ficers are the only ones able to re- co-develop a legislative framework deeply knowledgeable and respectful spond when our community mem- that recognizes First Nations policing of First Nations history and cultures bers are in crisis and call out for help. as an essential service.”I am hopeful and are, in turn, respected and ad- Throughout the country, mental we will soon see new federal legisla- mired in the communities they serve. health services have been neglected tion on First Nations policing that

September/October 2020 36 will provide a foundation for signif- run out. These measures and more are sion. More than that, the new legisla- icant investment in meeting the real essential to addressing the immediate tion demonstrates that there is space needs of our communities. needs of First Nations. However, this within Canada to reconcile national is just the beginning. laws and Indigenous legal orders. It is also crucial that every officer receive human rights-based training So, I put to you a combined call to that fosters cultural competency and What is needed is a both action and justice, as numerous promotes relationship building. Crit- different model of inquiries and inquests have done be- ically, the effectiveness of this train- policing that is able to fore. When Canada supports—tangi- ing must be subject to independent meet the real needs of First bly and systemically—the revitaliza- review, including from the perspec- tion and exercise of First Nations laws tive of Indigenous peoples and racial- Nations, that is prepared and legal orders, the crisis of First Na- ized communities. to work in partnership tions policing, and indeed the crisis in the criminal justice system over- Today, many First Nations have devel- with our communities, and all, will end. There are tangible steps oped their own orientation programs that is adequately already being taken and they must be to ensure that officers entering their resourced to succeed. built upon. There are also numerous communities understand their histo- policy proposals dating back decades ry, protocols, and expectations. These yet to be meaningfully implemented. programs, which help officers feel more at home and be more effective When Canada chooses to be in right at their jobs, should be supported by ast year, the federal government relations with First Nations it will be all levels of government. It is also criti- adopted new child welfare leg- a better country and a beacon of jus- cal to dedicate more resources to com- Lislation that responded to the tice and hope in a world that is grap- munity-based alternatives to calling in strong desire of First Nations to exer- pling with how to achieve justice for the police when individuals are in cri- cise jurisdiction over family services all, not only the privileged few. sis. Funding models need to be flexible according to our own laws and tradi- National Chief Perry Bellegarde has enough to ensure that each communi- tions. Implementation of the legisla- led the Assembly of First Nations, ty can design the wrap-around services tion will directly address one of the representing Canada’s 634 First Nations, that they need and can develop multi- critical points of conflict between since 2014. He is a proud member of the year program plans with the confi- First Nations and the Canadian jus- Little Black Bear First Nation in Treaty dence that funding won’t suddenly tice system, namely, child apprehen- 4 Territory, Saskatchewan.

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

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Policy 37 A Year of Unity Milestones Remembered

In a year when Canadians, including their frequently poignant; hoarse and exhausted, all but alone on stage, Lévesque said, quarrelsome governments, have united against the ex- almost plaintively, “À la prochaine istential threat of a pandemic, the country may be dis- fois”—until the next time. tracted from three crucial anniversaries. Graham Fraser, Holding a referendum was not a who spent years as a journalist explaining Quebec poli- risk-free proposition. Losing one, as it turned out, involved losing pow- tics to the rest of Canada and a decade as Commission- ers for Quebec. Pierre Trudeau had er of Official Languages, reminds us of three moments vowed that if the Yes side were de- when history might have pivoted to a different outcome. feated, he would take it as a mandate to change the Constitution. Que- bec nationalists interpreted this as a promise to give more powers to Que- bec. When the ultimate result—a Charter of Rights and Freedoms— was enacted without Quebec’s sup- seven years of terrorist bombings in Graham Fraser port, there was a bitter sense of be- Quebec. But it also led to overreach trayal that still lingers, and helped his is a year for national unity by the Royal Canadian Mounted Po- drive support for the federal, antifed- anniversaries: 25 years since lice (RCMP). The burning of a barn eralist Bloc Québécois party. T the 1995 Quebec referendum, to pre-empt a rumoured meeting of 40 years since the 1980 referendum, the FLQ and the Black Panthers and and 50 since the October Crisis. Each a break-in to steal membership lists A number of PQ milestone marked the country’s his- of the Parti Québécois (PQ) result- cabinet ministers torical consciousness; each one oc- ed in the McDonald Commission in- in the Lévesque government curred in a context that now seems as quiry and the creation of the nation- would date their distant as the Second World War. al spy agency, the Canadian Security commitment to Quebec and Intelligence Service (CSIS). The October Crisis, provoked by independence to the the kidnapping of Montreal-based Rather than eliminating the Que- British Trade Commissioner James October Crisis and the bec independence movement, the federal response. Cross by the Front de libération du federal excesses had the effect of Québec (FLQ) and escalated by the strengthening it; a number of PQ murder of Quebec cabinet minister cabinet ministers in the Lévesque Pierre Laporte, led to the War Mea- government would date their com- sures Act, the suspension of civil lib- mitment to Quebec independence erties and the imprisonment of over to the October Crisis and the federal 400 people who were never charged. response. Ten years later, PQ leader The bitterness created by Quebec’s I was in Italy during the October Cri- René Lévesque was premier of Que- exclusion led to the defeat of the sis, and watched grainy television bec, determined to fulfill his prom- federal Liberals and the dramatic clips of Vietnamese students being ise to hold a referendum on sover- victory of Brian Mulroney in 1984, loaded into paddy wagons—a fright- eignty-association. Three-and-a-half fuelled by his promise to bring Que- ening giveaway that the police were years into his mandate, despite re- bec into the constitution. The failure rounding up people who had noth- alizing he would not win, he kept of the Meech Lake Accord in 1990 ing to do with the FLQ. his commitment and held a vote; contributed to the return of the PQ, Except for a few minor incidents, 60 percent voted No and 40 percent led by Jacques Parizeau, determined the October Crisis marked the end of voted Yes. The night of the vote was to succeed where Lévesque had

September/October 2020 38

Quebec Premier René Lévesque and Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau in 1977, Lucien Bouchard, shortly after leaving the federal cabinet in May 1990 each in his manner the incarnation of Quebec. Graham Bezant, Toronto Star that would lead to his founding of the Bloc Québécois. Wikipedia photo Photograph Archive, Courtesy of Toronto Public Library

not. In the spring of 1995, Parizeau gradually inched back, only pulling by anger and bitterness. Angry Yes had yielded to pressure for a soft- ahead with the votes from Montreal voters surrounded the No head- er referendum question from Luc- and the Outaouais. The final result quarters, blocking people from leav- ien Bouchard, who had bolted from was a razor-thin victory for the No: ing; there were bonfires and angry Mulroney’s cabinet in 1990 over the a margin of 54,000 votes out of 4.6 demonstrators on rue De Maison- handling of Meech Lake and formed million votes cast; 50.6 percent vot- neuve in Montreal. Deputy Premier the Bloc Québécois. When the be- ed No, and 49.4 percent voted Yes. Bernard Landry vented his fury at ginning of the campaign went badly an immigrant hotel worker, and and it looked as if the result would Jacques Parizeau shocked even his be a repeat of 1980, Parizeau named Lévesque had the gift supporters by infamously blaming Bouchard chief negotiator and gave of convincing “money and the ethnic vote.” The him a leading role in the campaign. conservative nationalists and next day, Parizeau resigned. With- I was in Washington, and came back in weeks, Bouchard was swept into three times to cover the referendum socialists, hardliners and the premier’s office. And the result campaign: each time, the situation moderates, that he really further weakened Quebec: The Su- looked very different. favoured their position and preme Court decided the terms un- Bouchard acquired almost mythic only tolerated the others. der which Quebec could separate. status in Quebec, having nearly died This fiction blew apart, and o, what happened? How is it that a few months earlier from a flesh-eat- none of his successors was ing infection that resulted in the am- a movement that was on the putation of his leg. Limping to the able to pull together all of S brink of triumph 25 years ago stage night after night, obviously in the nationalist factions. has dissipated and fractured? pain, he poured out his rage and re- Part of the reason was the sheer, ex- sentment at what he conveyed as the hausting intensity of the 1995 refer- humiliation of Quebec by Trudeau’s endum itself. As people recovered, so-called betrayal. no-one but the most strongly com- Referendum night, October 30 1995, mitted wanted to relive the trauma was tense. The Yes vote had surged If the 1980 referendum night was they had just endured. In a few years, into an early lead with the votes marked by poignancy and sadness, the sovereignty movement was, in from eastern Quebec; the No vote the 1995 post-mortem was stained Parizeau’s phrase, a field of ruins.

Policy 39 One reason was the Supreme Court Francophones are no longer at an economic decision in 1998 on the Quebec reference, which described four disadvantage in Quebec. In fact, Francophones in unwritten principles of the con- Quebec earn more than Anglophones. French has not stitution—federalism, democracy, con- withered in Quebec, it has thrived. Support for federalism has stitutionalism and the rule of law, increased during the COVID crisis. and the protection of minorities— and laid out the conditions that would require the federal government to negotiate: a clear answer to a clear question. Claimed as a victory by both Ottawa and Quebec City, ciplined in respecting provincial troops patrolled the streets in Octo- the Supreme Court reference made it jurisdiction. ber 1970, and in a move that would clear that a referendum vote would have been unthinkable until now for The political crises that have taken not be, as Bouchard had claimed, a any previous premier. magic wand. It be-came equally clear place in Quebec over the last few that the 49.4 percent vote was not years—corruption in the construc- When he was an advisor to Prime a permanent block of support for tion industry revealed by the Char- Minister Mulroney, the late Marcel sovereignty. bonneau Commission, the massive Côté gave me an interesting insight. carré rouge protests that shut down He argued that some 25 percent of French-language universities in Que- Quebecers want Quebec to be part nother factor was the lack of a bec in 2014—were squarely in pro- of Canada under any conditions; 25 unifying sense of mission. vincial jurisdiction. There was no percent want Quebec to be part of Lévesque had the gift of con- A federal bad guy to blame. And when Canada provided it is treated with vincing conservative nationalists respect as a senior partner in the fed- and socialists, hardliners and moder- there was, with the sponsorship eration; 25 percent want Quebec to ates, that he really favoured their po- scandal, the surge in support for the be independent provided there is sition and only tolerated the others. Bloc Québécois was only temporary. no cost, and 25 percent want Que- This fiction blew apart, and none of More recently, the Brexit debacle in bec to be independent whatever the his successors was able to pull to- the not-so-United Kingdom has been cost. Those numbers have fluctuat- gether all of the nationalist factions a graphic indication that extracting ed over the years, but the insight re- into a common front. The sovereign- oneself from a political entity—as a mains valid. When Quebecers have ty movement suffered an existential sovereign country, let alone a prov- felt insulted or humiliated by Otta- crisis in 2007 when the Parti Québé- ince—is fraught with problems. wa or the rest of Canada, as was the cois finished third, and Quebec na- But more than that, an underlying case when the Meech Lake Accord tionalism began to turn inward. Un- shift has occurred. Francophones died, support for independence has til then, many sovereignists believed are no longer at an economic disad- soared. When Quebecers feel that they were still only 54,000 votes vantage in Quebec. In fact, Franco- the federal system works—as it gen- from independence. phones in Quebec earn more than erally has during the COVID crisis— Quebec’s grievances against Otta- Anglophones. French has not with- that support wanes. wa became more and more techno- ered in Quebec, it has thrived. Sup- But no-one should imagine that the cratic. As the late Washington guru port for federalism has increased appeal of sovereignty will ever disap- of realpolitik—and, as a McGill Uni- during the COVID crisis. Montreal pear entirely. All it could take is a gen- versity alumnus, former Quebec res- welcomes immigrants, even if the eration that didn’t live through the ident—Zbigniew Brzezinski once rest of the province is uneasy about trauma, feels excluded, and embraces observed, countries don’t break up them, and while the metropolis is the romance of the beau rêve. over who has jurisdiction over man- underrepresented in the Nation- power training. There was a flick- al Assembly, its diversity is chang- Contributing Writer Graham Fraser er of hope among indépendantistes ing Quebec. In a sign of the changed covered the 1980 referendum for The when Stephen Harper was elected, times, Quebec Premier François Le- Gazette and the 1995 referendum the first prime minister from West- gault, a former PQ minister who for The Globe and Mail. He is ern Canada since John Diefenbaker leads a party that proudly calls itself the author of René Lévesque and to win a majority—in 2011 after two a coalition (Coalition Avenir Qué- the Parti Québécois in Power, minority governments. But Harper bec), recently asked the federal gov- and Sorry, I Don’t Speak French: took pains to speak French first in ernment to send the army into long- Confronting the Canadian crisis every public declaration he made, term care facilities that had been That Won’t Go Away. He served as everywhere in Canada and around overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pan- Canada’s Commissioner of Official the world. And he was equally dis- demic—almost half a century after Languages from 2006-16.

September/October 2020 40

Guest Column / Jean Charest A Day for the History Books

henever I’m asked about Our mission was to pull Quebec away debated issue in the media. The sep- the 1995 referendum cam- from the edge and survive this refer- aratists said there were “only” 30,000 W paign and the extraordi- endum. The fate of Quebec and Cana- people. The organizers announced nary Place du Canada rally in Montre- da hung in the balance. 120,000 people. As usual, the truth al just three days before the vote, I al- would lie somewhere in between. most always start by remembering the n the previous Monday, all When the event came to an end, the feeling of tension and anxiety as the three of us had attended a crowd sang “O Canada” and then lin- images come back to mind. O very intense rally at the Ver- gered. They had experienced some- The morning of October 27 was grey, dun arena. I had never seen or expe- thing they knew would only happen cold and windy. My wife Michèle rienced anything like it. The emotion once in their lifetime. Many of them and I were driven from our hotel to and intensity of the crowded are- took to the streets of Montreal to cam- na was such that when Michèle and Place Ville Marie to join up with the paign, convince and plead with the I entered the building, our feet never head of the NO camp, Quebec Liber- Quebecers they met to stay in Canada. al Leader Daniel Johnson, and Prime touched the ground until we reached Minister Jean Chrétien. the stage. During that week, the mar- We all thought this referendum cam- kets had taken a hit. The dollar had paign would end with the vote to be It was silent. Michèle turned to me weakened and business had come to held three days later. On voting day, and said “J’ai froid,” and a few sec- a halt. These events set the context of 94 percent of eligible voters showed onds later, she took my hand and said our speeches at Place du Canada. up to express their choice. The NO “Je suis inquiète.” side won by the slimmest of margins, We made our way to the stage with The three leaders had only been to- 50.6 to 49.4 percent. gether a few times.. This would be relative ease. It felt to me like three our last meeting before the vote on gladiators heading into the ring. If Canada would go on to fight anoth- October 30. we lost this fight, there would be no er day. going back. The judgment of history But the 1995 referendum left a lega- The first part of the referendum cam- would be brutal and unforgiving. paign had been almost uneventful. cy of broken friendships and divided The NO side was leading. It was all too Once on stage, we could finally get a families, which most Quebecers never good to be true. better sense of how big a crowd and wanted to live through again. In my how important this moment would first election as Quebec Liberal Leader At mid-campaign, on Thanksgiv- be. The outpouring of emotion from in 1998, one of our campaign themes ing weekend, the leader of the YES tens of thousands of people was un- was “No Referendum’. And during our camp, Premier Jacques Parizeau made like anything any of us had ever years in government from 2003-12, a a stunning move. He stepped aside experienced. referendum was precluded simply by and he let his rival, the charismatic Lucien Bouchard, leader of the Bloc I remember asking the crowd wheth- our winning three elections in a row. Québécois, take over. The effect was er they believed the YES campaign A quarter century later, October 27, immediate and for the federalist side and whether they were ready to risk 1995, remains a defining moment it was devastating. all they had with Canada to enter the in the modern history of Quebec black hole of separation. Bouchard, who had torpedoed his and Canada. long friendship with Brian Mulroney Chrétien, as prime minister, commit- Jean Charest, a partner at the Law to embrace Quebec sovereignty, ted himself to changing Canada. Dan- Firm of McCarthy,Tétrault and three- would, at every rally, convey political iel Johnson, as leader of the NO cam- term Premier of Quebec from 2003-12, passion and a sense of mission. paign, spoke about how Quebecers was leader of the Progressive At the midpoint of the campaign, the could feel proud to be Canadians. They Conservative Party and a keynote NO camp had all the charm of a com- were both eloquent and convincing. speaker at the historic No rally in pany auditor loaded with statistics. The size of the crowd became a hotly Montreal, October 27,1995.

Policy An Open Letter to MPs and Senators Re: Stimulating Private Sector Support for Charities

Dear MPs and Senators, HEALTHCARE As many of you have noted, the loss of funding for charities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is among the most unfortunate occurrences of recent months. And this at a time when the help provided by the charitable sector is needed more than ever by Canadians. The economic and employment losses are indicative of an unprecedented emergency among charities. A May 2020 study by Imagine Canada reports donations declining by 31 percent, with 73 percent of charities seeing donations down. The report forecasts a loss of private sector donations of between $4.2 billion and $6.3 billion depending on the length of the crisis, with job losses estimated between 117,000 and 195,000. This is devastating for the charitable sector, for the Canadians who provide these services, and the millions of Canadians who receive them. A report by the Cardus think tank in July found that seven charities out of 10 reported lower revenues and had already laid off 84,000 full and part-time workers.

Potentially, jobless workers are eligible for the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy provided their HH E Unsplash photo employers’ revenues have declined by the requisite 30 percent, but as you know there’s no CEWS benefit for the registered charities themselves. EDUCATION In its first initiative in April, the government announced a $350 million sectoral relief fund to be administered by United Way/Centraide, the Red Cross and Community Foundations Canada to help with grass roots delivery of services. But this turns out of be a drop in the bucket of the needs of the charitable sector to deliver relief to our fellow Canadians in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Fortunately, there is something to be done for it, which would deliver immediate relief to help Canadians through the present economic emergency without significant additional costs to a fiscal framework that is already running historic deficits. The proposal is simplicity itself, and achievable at low cost while significantly stimulating donations to the charitable sector. The government would simply remove the capital gains tax on donations of private company shares and real estate to a registered charity. The foregone federal tax of $50-$60 million would result in an increase of charitable donations several times over. Existing jobs would be saved, photo Bank Sansoni World Dominic new jobs would be created and urgently needed benefits would be delivered to Canadians. SOCIAL SERVICES This can be accomplished by a simple amendment to the Income Tax Act that could easily be adopted by Parliament either as a stand-alone measure, as part of a fiscal update or in the upcoming budget during the new session of the House beginning September 23. As a tax change, it could be implemented immediately, since Ways and Means motions are by convention deemed to be in effect “upon tabling”, even when the legislation itself hasn’t been tabled, let alone passed. And while it must be passed eventually, of course, relief could flow overnight. This is not a matter for partisan debate or division. Our soundings indicate that parties in the House would support such a measure, as would members of the Senate. And all stakeholders in our hospitals, social service agencies, universities and the arts, and the millions of Canadians they serve, will be very appreciative of any additional support as a timely reminder that we are, indeed, all in this together. Yours sincerely, Adam Jones Flickr photo

Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D. Director, Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation Chair, Vision Campaign, Toronto Western Hospital Member, Advisory Board, Ivey Business School, Western University Chairman Emeritus & Director, Business / Arts Member, 2020 Major Individual Giving Cabinet, United Way Greater Toronto