A Different Normal
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www.policymagazine.ca September—October 2020 ›› featured section Canadian Politics and Public Policy The Conservative Race A Different Normal $6.95 Volume 8 – Issue 5 Essential to the Economy Serving exporters, importers, retailers, farmers and manufacturers, CN’s transportation services are integral to modern life, touching the lives of millions of people every day. $250B 25% WORTH OF GOODS OF WHAT WE TRANSPORT TRANSPORTED IS EXPORTED 26,000 $2.9B RAILROADERS CAPITAL INVESTMENTS EMPLOYED (2020) cn.ca Essential_Economy_Policy_Magazine.indd 1 8/19/2020 4:11:07 PM CanadianIn ThisPolitics Issue and Pub lic FromPoli cythe Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2 A Different Normal and the Tory Leadership Canadian Politics and 3 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan Public Policy Preparing for Canada’s Next Normal 7 Kevin Page EDITOR AND PUBLISHER A Fall Budget 2020 Strategy: Drive Toward the Future L. Ian MacDonald Shachi Kurl [email protected] 10 The Mood of Canada: Beyond the Coronavirus Summer ASSOCIATE EDITOR of our Discontent Lisa Van Dusen [email protected] Bob Kirke and Elliot Lifson 13 CONTRIBUTING WRITERS The Way We Wore: The COVID Crisis in Canada’s Thomas S. Axworthy, Clothing Industry Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Vianne Timmons James Baxter, Derek H. Burney, 15 Catherine Cano, Margaret Clarke, A Summer Road Trip: Resilience and Hope on The Rock Rachel Curran, Paul Deegan, Lori Turnbull John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, 17 The Politics of Prorogation Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, The Conservative Race Frank Graves, Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, Yaroslav Baran Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen, 20 The Conservatives and Post-Pandemic Politics Elizabeth May, Velma McColl, David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, 23 Geoff Norquay Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, Job One for A New Leader—Putting the Party Back Together Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page, Jaime Watt Robin V. Sears, Vianne Timmons, 26 Brian Topp, Lori Turnbull, Erin O’Toole’s Political, Policy and Pandemic Challenges Jaime Watt, Anthony Wilson-Smith Guest Column / Lee Richardson WEB DESIGN 28 Jock Osler, Beloved Politico. Honestly. Nicolas Landry [email protected] Race for the White House SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Grace MacDonald Sarah Goldfeder [email protected] 29 Reports of the Death of America Have Been Greatly Exaggerated GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Column / Don Newman Monica Thomas 32 [email protected] Beyond the Election, the China Card Policy Canada and the World Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Perry Bellegarde copyrighted, but may be reproduced 33 First Nations Self-Policing: A Legacy of Success, with permission and attribution in print, and viewed free of charge at the and a Road to Healing Policy home page at policymagazine.ca. 37 Graham Fraser Price: $6.95 per issue A Year of Unity Milestones Remembered Annual Subscription: $39.95 Guest Column / Jean Charest PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY 40 St. Joseph Communications, A Day for the History Books 1165 Kenaston Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounges across Canada, as well as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Cover Photo: A lone pedestrian crosses the street at the corner of King and Bay in Toronto, the Now available on PressReader. heart of the country’s financial district and normally teeming with people. Not so since the pandemic closed it down. Juan Rojas Unsplash photo Special thanks to our sponsors and advertisers. Connect with us: @policy_mag facebook.com/policymagazine 2 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald A Different Normal and the Tory Leadership elcome back to the fall How are Canadians feeling about perative of uniting the party as Bri- 2020 semester of politics life in the pandemic, and the pros- an Mulroney and Joe Clark did by W and policy in a world trans- pects of moving beyond it? The An- becoming close partners following formed from the one we used to know. gus Reid Institute’s Shachi Kurl has the divisive 1983 leadership conven- With a post-pandemic reality not set- some attitudinal data to provide us tion, enabling the Tories to sweep tled yet, this is not a new normal with a look at the mood of Canada the country the next year. And Jaime we’re living in now, but it certainly is going into the fall. Watt observes: “O’Toole has earned a different one. We’re looking at the his win.” But with serious economic How has daily life changed in the economic and social aspects of that in and social post-pandemic challenges pandemic? Just look at the clothes our extensive cover package. “well beyond the usual uphill battle we’re wearing, and not. As Bob Kirke facing a new leader.” We’re also looking, in that very con- and Elliot Lifson of the Canadian Ap- text, at the outcome and outlook for parel Federation note: “Canadians And former Conservative MP Lee the Conservative Party of Canada haven’t been going to work, and they Richardson writes of the passing of a and its new leader, Erin O’Toole, as don’t need to dress up to work from beloved member of the Conservative he becomes leader of the Opposition home.” That’s a big problem for Can- family. Jock Osler advised both Clark in a minority House. ada’s $30 billion clothing industry. and Mulroney. His life itself was a les- son in collegial unity. And we’re just weeks away from a Memorial University’s new President, momentous US presidential elec- Vianne Timmons, took a month-long n the race for the White tion in which Donald Trump—the summer tour of its campuses across House, we offer important most divisive and disreputable figure her home province of Newfoundland O insights shared by experi- of the modern era—will either win and Labrador, and was struck by the enced Washington hand Sarah Gold- a second term or be sent packing by resilience of the people. feder, a State Department alumna. American voters. Our columnist, Don Newman, him- One of the consequences of the pan- self a former Washington correspon- demic has been money flying out of Looking at that different normal, Kev- dent, joins the conversation with Be- in Lynch and Paul Deegan ask how the Ottawa, with little due diligence or yond the Election, the China Card. global economic narrative will evolve, attention to how it’s spent and who and in what geopolitical context. And manages it. The WE Charity scan- Finally, in Canada and the World, as they note: “The nature of work has dal has provided some damaging an- Assembly of First Nations Nation- changed more in the last six months swers. When the PM’s mother is paid al Chief Perry Bellegarde shares his than in the previous 20 years.” $250,000 plus expenses for speeches, informed perspective on why In- everybody gets that. Dalhousie Uni- digenous self-policing is so success- Looking at the Canadian fiscal frame- versity’s Lori Turnbull considers the ful, in contrast to the troubles of ra- work, former Parliamentary Budget broader political ramifications, now cial minorities with conventional Officer Kevin Page has never seen any- including prorogation. law enforcement. thing like the stimulative deficits of Ot- tawa’s pandemic response. Even with ooking at the outcome of the On the 25th anniversary of the 1995 a deficit of $343 billion in the summer Conservative leadership race, Quebec referendum, author and jour- update, he notes that Canada’s low L strategist Yaroslav Baran of- nalist Graham Fraser looks back at debt-to-GDP ratio gives Ottawa a mar- fers a 9-point check list of priorities how it changed both Quebec and gin of manouevre. As he writes: “The for the new leader. He’ll have ev- Canada. And Jean Charest, key- economics of deficits have changed. erything on his plate, including the note speaker at the historic rally of With next-to-zero interest rates and challenge of bringing moderate and 100,000 people that may have saved no inflation in near sight, there are social Conservatives together. Geoff the No campaign, offers his memo- virtually no bottom-line balance sheet Norquay looks at exactly that, with ries of that day marked by an overrid- impacts of running larger deficits.” a keen eye on history, and the im- ing question of country. Policy 3 The corner of the Sparks Street Mall and O’Connor in Ottawa. Normally the busiest pedestrian corridor in the capital, with the CBC building (left) and the back of the National Press Building (right), the street was shut down and utterly deserted during the pandemic lockdown. Nabil Salah Unsplash photo Preparing for Canada’s Next Normal After an unprecedented summer of physical distancing Kevin Lynch and damage assessment, individuals, governments and and Paul Deegan global stakeholders are moving forward from crisis mode he COVID-19 pandemic has to planning for a post-pandemic reality. What might that not only rocked society today, inter-woven economic and geopolitical narrative look like? T it is reshaping our tomorrow— rapidly accelerating trends that will Former BMO Vice Chair Kevin Lynch and former CN and define the “next normal” for Canada BMO executive Paul Deegan offer some insights. and the world. Unless there is another wave of the virus, we are through the shutdown phase, where governments locked down economic and social activity to plank the curve and preserve the health care system. Government fis- cal policies during the shutdown have been geared to three things—li- quidity, liquidity, and liquidity. The shutdown, while necessary, caused the first-ever recession driven by the services sector, not the goods sector of the economy.