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TUPRAS BUY (Prev EARNINGS REVIEW Equity TURKEY / Oil&Gas Research 15 February 2016 TUPRAS BUY (Prev. BUY) Hedging gains more than offset inventory losses; strong 2016 guidance Earnings broadly in line, EBITDA beats. Tupras reported Stock Data 12 February 2016 TRY815mn profit for 4Q15, broadly in line with consensus (TRY853mn), but above our estimate (TRY756mn) thanks to robust Current price TRY68.85 EBITDA of TRY1,189mn (YKYe:TRY993mn, consensus:TRY960mn) Target price TRY81.7 on higher sales volume with limited sacrifice at refinery margin. DPS TRY5.37 Deviation on earnings would have been more remarkable if the Total return 26% effective tax rate were lower. The management has also revealed a Current Mcap TRY17,241mn/ US$5899mn strong 2016 outlook, but refrained from any numerical hint for 2015 DPS. Given good operational results and strong 2016 guidance, we Bloomberg Ticker TUPRS TI expect positive impact on the stock following the latest weakness. Number of outstanding shares (mn) 250 High / Low Price Range (12M) 78.45/50.35 Strong sales volume at satisfactory refinery margin. CUR 3-m Average Daily Turnover ($ mn) 35.8 was again above 100% in 4Q15 (106%) to take advantage of strong domestic demand (diesel up 16% and gasoline by 9% yoy in 11M15) Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M YtD and refinery margins. Accordingly, sales volume soared by a Return -8.3 -10.6 -7.9 -1.1 whopping 45% yoy, which offset the sharp fall in oil prices largely Relative to BIST100 -7.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 and topline contracted by only 2% yoy coupled with weak TRY. Despite well-expected qoq fall after very strong 3Q15, net refinery 60.00 margin was still relatively strong at US$5.17/bbl (YKYe:US$5.3), exceeding Med margin (US$3.84). Inventory loss of US$83.5mn 50.00 (YKYe:US$100mn) was more than covered by hedging gain of 40.00 US$150mn. As a result, EBITDA soared to US$409mn, exceeding 30.00 even the strongest season 3Q and weak 4Q14 (US$24mn). 20.00 Non-operating loss limited, but effective tax rate is higher. 10.00 With strong TRY closing, Tupras booked TRY207mn FX gain (3Q14:TRY680mn loss) while hedging led to TRY160mn loss this - quarter (3Q14: TRY218mn gain). However, the company reversed 01/09 05/09 09/09 01/10 05/10 09/10 01/11 05/11 09/11 01/12 05/12 09/12 01/13 05/13 09/13 01/14 05/14 09/14 01/15 05/15 09/15 01/16 some of the deferred tax income (TRY105mn expense) and Price (TRY) Relative Price (TRY) corporate tax was higher than expected. The management guided for 8.5% effective tax rate for 2016. Net debt down. Net working capital eased to TRY764mn from TRY1,076mn and coupled with strong TRY and robust results, net debt declined to TRY6.9bn from TRY8.4bn in the previous quarter. Strong 2016 guidance. Tupras guides for US$5.8-6.3/bbl refinery margin (YKYe: US$5, 2015:US$6.47) with production of 28mn tons and sales volume of 30mn tons under the assumption of US$45-50/bbl Brent price (YKYe:US$40/bbl). The management expects correction in diesel cracks with the high season and does not expect a material effect from last week’s fire at Izmit refinery. BUY reiterated. Depending on the statutory income, we see upside risk to our DPS estimate of TRY5.37/sh (8% yield). For the moment, we maintain TP at TRY81.7, which offers 26% upside including dividend yield. Stronger than expected recovery in diesel Elvin Akbulut Daglier cracks and overall refinery margins would lead us to revisit our [email protected] estimates with an upward bias. +90 212 319 83 65 IMPORTANT: Please refer to the last page of this report for “Important Disclosures” and Analyst(s) Certifications. 15 February 2016 – Tupras Table 1: Tupras- 4Q15 Summary financials (TRYmn) Chg yoy Chg yoy Income statement 4Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 3Q15 Chg qoq (%) (%) (%) Revenues 8,899 9,037 -2 36,893 39,723 -7 10,446 -15 COGS 7,595 8,811 -14 32,718 38,460 -15 9,227 -18 Gross profit 1,303 226 n.m. 4,175 1,263 231 1,219 7 OPEX 283 242 17 877 732 20 231 22 Operating profit 1,021 -16 n.m. 3,298 531 n.m. 988 3 EBITDA 1,189 52 n.m. 3,784 789 n.m. 1,119 6 Other income, net 194 -13 n.m. -474 -112 n.m. -361 n.m. Financial income, net -168 -67 151 -599 -235 154 -128 31 Minority interest -7 -4 79 -14 -11 23 0 n.m. Taxes -225 312 n.m. 339 1,286 -74 252 n.m. Net profit 815 213 283 2,550 1,459 75 750 9 Margins (%) 4Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 3Q15 Gross 14.6 2.5 12.1 pp 11.3 3.2 8.1 pp 11.7 3.0 pp EBITDA 13.4 0.6 12.8 pp 10.3 2.0 8.3 pp 10.7 2.6 pp Net 9.2 2.4 6.8 pp 6.9 3.7 3.2 pp 7.2 2.0 pp Chg yoy Chg yoy Balance Sheet 4Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 3Q15 Chg qoq (%) (%) (%) Cash and cash equivalents 3,028 3,898 -22 3,028 3,898 -22 2,487 22 Trade receivables 2,540 170 n.m. 2,540 170 n.m. 3,149 -19 Inventories 2,102 2,371 -11 2,102 2,371 -11 2,723 -23 LT assets 16,795 14,941 12 16,795 14,941 12 16,725 0 Total assets 25,470 21,933 16 25,470 21,933 16 26,505 -4 Financial debt 9,919 7,755 28 9,919 7,755 28 10,848 -9 Trade payables 3,878 5,610 -31 3,878 5,610 -31 4,796 -19 LT liabilities 8,273 7,159 16 8,273 7,159 16 9,389 -12 Equity 8,305 6,157 35 8,305 6,157 35 7,225 15 Total liabilities 25,470 21,933 16 25,470 21,933 16 26,505 -4 Chg yoy Chg yoy Financial ratios 4Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 3Q15 Chg qoq (%) (%) (%) Net debt 6,892 3,857 79 6,892 3,857 79 8,362 -18 Debt/equity 67 72 -4.5 pp 67 72 -4.5 pp 73 -5.3 pp Receivable days 26 2 25 25 2 24 28 -1 Inventory days 25 25 1 23 22 1 27 -2 Payable days 47 59 -12 43 53 -10 48 -1 Net working capital days 5 -32 37 5 -29 34 7 -2 Source: Tupras, YKY Research Table 2: Tupras – Operational data 4Q15 4Q14 Chg yoy (%) 2015 2014 Chg yoy (%) 3Q15 Chg qoq (%) Crude throughput ('000 tons) 7,470 5,540 35% 27,559 20,044 37% 7,473 0% CUR (%) 106 79 27.5 pp 98 71 26.7 pp 106 0.6 pp Total sales ('000 tons) 7,862 6,089 29% 28,739 22,194 29% 7,936 -1% White product yield (%) 77.5 70.5 7.0 pp 75.4 3.2 pp 77.8 -0.3 pp 72.2 Med-refinery margin (USD/bbl) 3.54 3.84 -8% 4.83 1.95 148% 4.92 -28% Tupras - net refinery margin 5.17 4.56 13% 6.47 3.21 102% 8.32 -38% (USD/bbl) Tupras - clean refinery margin 5.93 6.02 -1% 6.93 3.74 85% 9.15 -35% (USD/bbl) Source: Tupras, YKY Research 2 Coverage Cluster Company Ticker Analyst BUY Akbank AKBNK Sezgi Bice Ozener Aksa Enerji AKSEN Elvin Akbulut Daglier Alarko REIT ALGYO Elvin Akbulut Daglier Anadolu Hayat ANHYT Sezgi Bice Ozener Arcelik ARCLK Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Aygaz AYGAZ Elvin Akbulut Daglier Cimsa CIMSA Gorkem Goker Coca-Cola CCOLA Gizem Celik Emlak Konut REIT EKGYO Elvin Akbulut Daglier Enka Insaat ENKAI Elvin Akbulut Daglier Ford Otosan FROTO Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Garanti Bankasi GARAN Sezgi Bice Ozener Isbank ISCTR Sezgi Bice Ozener Is REIT ISGYO Elvin Akbulut Daglier Migros MGROS Gorkem Goker Park Madencilik PRKME Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Pinar Et PETUN Gizem Celik Sabanci Holding SAHOL Elvin Akbulut Daglier Tat Gıda TATGD Gizem Celik Tekfen Holding TKFEN Elvin Akbulut Daglier Torunlar REIT TRGYO Elvin Akbulut Daglier TSKB TSKB Sezgi Bice Ozener Tupras TUPRS Elvin Akbulut Daglier Turk Hava Yollari THYAO Gorkem Goker Turk Telekom TTKOM Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Turk Traktor TTRAK Mehmet Aydin Agyuz HOLD Adana Cimento ADANA Gorkem Goker Akcansa AKCNS Gorkem Goker Akfen Holding AKFEN Gizem Celik Avivasa AVISA Sezgi Bice Ozener BIM BIMAS Gorkem Goker Bizim BIZIM Gorkem Goker Celebi CLEBI Gorkem Goker Eczacibasi İlac ECILC Gizem Celik Erdemir EREGL Elvin Akbulut Daglier - Gizem Celik Kardemir (D) KRDMD Gizem Celik - Elvin Akbulut Daglier Mardin Cimento MRDIN Gorkem Goker Otokar OTKAR Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Pinar Sut PNSUT Gizem Celik Selcuk Ecza SELEC Gizem Celik Sinpas REIT SNGYO Elvin Akbulut Daglier Tofas TOASO Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Turkcell TCELL Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Ulker Biskuvi ULKER Gizem Celik Vakifbank VAKBN Sezgi Bice Ozener UNDERPERFORM Ak Enerji AKENR Elvin Akbulut Daglier Albaraka Turk ALBRK Sezgi Bice Ozener Ayen Enerji AYEN Elvin Akbulut Daglier Halkbank HALKB Sezgi Bice Ozener Pegasus PGSUS Gorkem Goker TAV Havalimanları TAVHL Gorkem Goker Tumosan TMSN Mehmet Aydin Agyuz UNDER REVIEW / NOT RATED Aksigorta AKGRT - Anadolu Sigorta ANSGR - Koza Altin KOZAL Mehmet Aydin Agyuz Dogan Holding DOHOL - Anadolu Cam ANACM - Sise Cam SISE - Soda Sanayi SODA - Trakya Cam TRKCM - Research Rating and Important Disclosures 1.
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