Volume 3, Number 6 May-June, 2008 www.PeaceOps.com

JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS Q&A With Afghan Airbus v. Boeing is Ambassador 20 the Wrong Debate 26

The Future of Iraq

U.S. Policy z Security z Development z The International Perspective

INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS ASSOCIATION

Contents.

JIPOJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS

THE PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS ASSOCIATION

Founded in 2004 as the IPOA Quarterly Volume 3, Number 6 May-June 2008 ISSN 1933-8189

Publisher ...... Doug Brooks Editor-in-Chief ...... J. J. Messner Business Manager ...... Jared Lawyer The Future of Iraq

International Peace Operations Association U.S. Policy. Security. 1900 L Street, NW, Suite 320 Washington, D.C. 20036 Michael Shank Christian Lowe United States of America 9 U.S. Policy in Iraq: 15 A Surge in Confidence in Iraq’s Telephone ...... +1 (202) 464-0721 A Plague on Both Houses Security Situation Facsimile ...... +1 (202) 464-0726 E-mail ...... [email protected] Juliette R. Shedd Graham Kerr Web site ...... www.peaceops.com 10 Iraq Policy in the Post-Bush Era: 17 Security in Iraq: Clinton, McCain and Obama The Private Security Perspective

PRINT EDITION SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE Development. The International Perspective. An annual subscription includes six issues. United States ...... US$44.95 Michael O’Hanlon Joseph Lacey-Holland Worldwide ...... US$49.95 13 Don’t Forget the Economy 19 The Coalition of the Whoever is Left Please visit www.peaceops.com or contact Jared Jessica Kruvant-Wilson Lawyer at [email protected] to order. Bethelhem Moulat & S.L. Rathgeber 14 A Tough Road to Educating Iraqis 20 Uniting Behind the UN in Iraq

ADVERTISING Very competitive advertising packages are available for companies wishing to reach our international audience of readers. Please contact Jared Lawyer at +1 (202) 464- Special Feature. Columnists. 0721 or [email protected] for more details. Zimbabwe’s Election Crisis. Doug Brooks

4 The Swiss Show Some Dr. Nel Marais Initiative PUBLIC SUBMISSIONS 24 Zimbabwe: Stability Under Threat Letters to the Editor must be no more than 200 Amb. Herman Cohen words, and must be accompanied by the writer’s full 25 Just When Things Couldn’t name, address, e-mail and telephone number. Only the writer’s name and city will be printed if the letter is Get Worse for Zimbabwe published. Q & A. J. J. Messner Unsolicited Articles must be the original work of 26 Airbus Versus Boeing the author and no more than 800 words. Articles must Michael Shank be accompanied by a photograph and a short biography 20 Poppy, Poverty and the Taliban: Should Not be the Debate of the author. Submissions should be e-mailed to Interview with Afghanistan Ambassador [email protected]. to the U.S., Said Tayeb Jawad

Profiles. FRONT COVER PHOTOGRAPH CREDITS IPOA Member Profile Cover Graphic ...... Government Affairs. 5 Overseas Lease Group Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki ...... Melinda Baker Peacekeeping Operation Profile 23 Military Law on Trial 30 African Union Mission in Burundi Copyright © 2007 the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA). All rights reserved. The IPOA logo and the IPOA lion image are trademarks of the International Peace Operations Association. The Journal of International Peace Operations (JIPO) and its logo are trademarks of the International Peace Operations Association. The Industry Info. opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent the opinions of IPOA, its officers, Board of Directors, members or affiliates. IPOA bears no responsibility for the editorial content; the views expressed in the articles IPOA Lion Resources for Professionals are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the Editor-in-Chief. 6 News from IPOA 27 Professional Development 29 Industry Conferences and Events

3 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 President’s Message.

D OUG BROOKS The Swiss Show Some Initiative Bringing Clarity to International Legal and Regulatory Frameworks

N April I represented IPOA at one of the from the academic world, NGOs and the some believe blurs the critical legal partition final meetings of a project spearheaded industry itself. The meetings sponsored by between civilians and military. Our industry I by the International Committee of the the Initiative have been more collegial than is not military; it employs only civilians, Red Cross and Swiss Government, better contentious, and their format has allowed even the approximately 5% that are armed. known as the “Swiss Initiative.” The project delegates to work through issues in both They do not – and should not – have the is designed to “to promote respect for formal and informal settings. Analysts and same rights as combatants under international humanitarian law and human researchers are often astonished at how international law. From an international rights with regard to private military and supportive industry can be towards good legal perspective this actuality should be laws, rules and clarified rather than obfuscated by clumsy regulations; and the terminology. The U.S. Department of industry Defense uses the term ‘contingency representatives always contractor’ which we believe is a neutral and brought a foundation of accurate description of the broad collection reality to discussions of civilians hired to provide critical support that occasionally services in conflict, post-conflict and disaster strayed into whimsical relief operations. political science theory. Second, the Initiative is a golden The contacts made opportunity to reaffirm the importance and through the Swiss legality of providing humanitarian security. Initiative meetings Protecting human beings – including have been enduring refugees and internally displaced persons and invaluable to (IDPs) – should be as legitimate as IPOA’s own efforts to protecting oil facilities, warehouses and promote successful and NGOs. Unfortunately, suggestions that this ethical private sector important capability be specifically operations. mentioned in the document were The Initiative disregarded. consists of two The Swiss Initiative process should be The Swiss have provided their fair share of private security contractors over time. sections: legal complete by year end, and the final product PHOTO: THE VATICAN obligations and good will be of significant benefit for our industry. practices. While states It portends clarity on state responsibilities, security companies operating in conflict continue to negotiate a small number of the insight into applicable international law, situations.” In a series of meetings since more prickly international aspects of the standardization of contractual requirements, 2006, the Swiss have been diligently working legal recommendations, the good practices and suggests a bevy of best practices for to draft a broad document of widely accepted section has largely been finalized. Both clients and governments. This clarification international legal obligations and good bring an important level of clarity and focus and standardization will significantly assist client and state practices. Their persistence to the use of civilian contractors in the most responsible companies working in has, surprisingly, paid off. contingency operations. conflict and post-conflict environments, and From the beginning, the Swiss Initiative The results are overwhelmingly offer guidance to new firms looking to has been refreshingly inclusive with invitees constructive, but some grating issues could provide critical services in an ethical still be clarified. First, the drafters have manner. Future peace and stability Email Doug Brooks at [email protected] settled on the terminology of Private Military operations will benefit from the Swiss The author is the President of IPOA. and Security Companies (PMSCs), which prescience.

verify membership status at www.ipoaonline.org/members 4 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 DS CODE OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY URITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA NATO CORPORATIONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES RATIONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS AN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS RATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM S INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO N CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS CODE OF CONDUCT RVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES L PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO CORPORATIONS RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS CODE OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION RIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SWEDEN D NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO CORPORATIONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING CT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING NITED ARAB EMIRATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA ONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS E ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS ANNUAL SUMMIT ELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY ATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES IONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT engaging africom N CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS AN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICSWASHINGTON, D.C. RATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM26 ‐ 28 OCTOBER S INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO The International Peace Operations Association Annual Summit is the premiere event of the private N CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS CODE OF CONDUCTpeace and stability operations industry. RVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITEDThe Summit KINGDOM will be held SOUTH in Washington, AFRICA D.C., home to some of the world’s largest clients in the global peace and stability operations industry — and also Headquarters of IPOA. The venue for the L PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENTSummit NATOwill be The CORPORATIONS Liaison Hotel on Capitol Hill, 415 New Jersey Avenue NW, near the U.S. RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS CODE OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION Capitol. RIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES WHO DOES ATTEND AND WHO SHOULD ATTEND? GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM SOUTH AFRICA SWEDEN D NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO CORPORATIONS „ INTERNATIONALLogistics Firms PEACEKEEPING „ Government „ NGOs DS CODE OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE„ Private SecuritySOCIAL Firms RESPONSIBILITY „ Humanitarian Development Firms „ Military „ Security Sector Reform Firms „ International Organizations „ UXO Firms URITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT „ MEDICALProduct Manufacturers/Suppliers SERVICES DEMINING „ Media „ Academics TATES UNITED KINGDOM SOUTH AFRICA SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA NATO CORPORATIONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPINGExcellent NGOS sponsorship UNITED NATIONS and exhibitor packages are still available OF CONDUCT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITYContact Jared Lawyer ETHICS at [email protected] for more information

HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY INGDOM SOUTH AFRICA SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATESRegister online at RATIONS INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS www.ipoaonline.org/summit GOVERNMENT TRADE ASSOCIATION CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS AN DEVELOPMENT MEDICAL SERVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS RATES SWEDEN SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM S INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING NGOS UNITED NATIONS GOVERNMENT NATO N CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ETHICS STANDARDS CODE OF CONDUCT RVICES DEMINING PRIVATE SECURITY LOGISTICS HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT SPAIN GERMANY CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM SOUTH AFRICA IPOA Lion.

J ARED LAWYER Six New Companies Gain IPOA Membership IPOA Membership Continues to Grow at a Rapid Pace

POA is pleased to welcome six new AECOM Technology Corporation Facts and Figures member companies to the Association: I AECOM Technology Corporation, Contact: Robert Akin American Glass Products, Ecolog Address: 1200 Summit Avenue, Suite 320 International, Rutherfoord, Swift Global Fort Worth, TX 76102 Logistics and The Development Initiative. Telephone: +1 817-698-6703 The addition of these new companies brings Facsimile: +1 817-698-6759 our membership total to 41, tangible Email: [email protected] evidence of our Association’s ability to Web site: www.aecom.com continue to attract companies from a wide variety of countries and specialties. American Glass Products (AGP) Facts and Figures AECOM Technology Corporation is a multibillion dollar a year international Contact: Richard Hull company composed of 21 companies that Address: 631 American Glass Way provide a full range of professional, Knoxville, TN 37932 engineering, technical, training, logistical, Telephone: +1 865-675-0525 and management support services to Facsimile: +1 865-675-0526 government and commercial clients. AECOM Email: [email protected] has more than 40,000 employees in over 690 Web site: www.agpglass.com offices in more than 85 different countries. American Glass Products is an international company with over 200 Ecolog International Facts and Figures employees worldwide. AGP manufactures state of the art bullet resistant glass and after Contact: Gokman Ucok market/OEM automotive glass, and selling Address: Dubai Airport Free Zone P. O. Box 54464 and marketing these products to automobile Dubai, United Arab Emirates manufacturers, government agencies and Telephone: +971 (0) 42-994-500 armoring companies worldwide. Facsimile: +971 (0) 50-915-5018 Ecolog International provides life Email: [email protected] support services and infrastructure services Web site: www.ecolog-international.com in contingency operations. The key services provided by Ecolog are construction, Rutherfoord Facts and Figures logistics, waste management, power and water supplies, laundry, potable toilets, Contact: Sara Payne aviation, communications and cleaning. Address: 5500 Cherokee Avenue, Suite 300 Ecolog has over 1,000 employees worldwide. Alexandria, VA 22312 Rutherfoord is a full service Telephone: +1 703-813-6503 worldwide insurance brokerage with Facsimile: +1 703-508-6943 specialty in DBA insurance programs. Email: [email protected] Swift Global Logistics, head- Web site: www.rutherfoord.com quartered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has provided a comprehensive range of freight and logistics services since its Swift Global Logistics Facts and Figures inception in 1989. Swift is dedicated to providing quality service and innovative Contact: Rachel Kriss logistics solutions, offering customers local Address: 5335 Wisconsin Avenue NW, Suite 440 expertise through its network of 46 offices Washington, D.C. 20015 throughout Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Telephone: +1 202-895-2798 The Development Initiative group Facsimile: +1 202-232-2578 of companies provides the following services Email: [email protected] to multi-national corporations, governmental Web site: www.swiftfreight.com and non-governmental organizations: landmine clearance, battle area clearance, The Development Initiative (TDI) Facts and Figures explosive ordnance disposal and consultancy, narcotics detection dogs, attack dogs and Contact: Julie Cross explosive detection dogs, and, logistics and Address: 101 Eagle Tower, Montpellier Drive remote operations support. Cheltenham, United Kingdom Telephone: +44 1242-517-271 Facsimile: +44 1242-517-203 Email Jared Lawyer at [email protected] Email: [email protected] The author is the Development Manager at IPOA. Web site: www.thedevelopmentinitiative.com

6 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008

IPOA Lion

IPOA Holds Successful Reception on AFRICOM Col. James Herron Addresses Industry Representatives on Recent Developments

OLONEL James Herron, the Director representatives from both member and non- of the AFRICOM Liaison Office for the member companies, government agencies C U.S. Air Force, addressed an IPOA and NGOs. networking reception focused on AFRICOM. Col. Herron provided an assessment of The networking reception was held on April progress on AFRICOM, addressing both 23 at the Hotel Lombardy in Washington. operational and conceptual issues D.C. concerning the new Command. The The reception was attended by over 75 presentation was then followed by a Question and Answer session allowing those in attendance to glean further insight into the latest developments within AFRICOM. In response, Col. Herron provided very A much larger than expected turnout listened to frank and candid Col. James Herron’s presentation. assessments. PHOTO: J. J. MESSNER/IPOA IPOA has taken a keen interest in the demand from member companies, IPOA will development of AFRICOM, also devote its Annual Summit in October and the organization had 2008 to the subject. been an outspoken IPOA wishes to thank Col. Herron for advocate of the Command’s addressing the reception and for providing Col. James Herron and IPOA President Doug Brooks. development from an early such useful insights on such an important PHOTO: J. J. MESSNER/IPOA stage. In response to current topic.

I NTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS ASSOCIATION MEMBER PROFILE Overseas Lease Group Project Leasing Solutions for Companies, Government Agencies and NGOs

HE Overseas Lease Group, Inc. (OLG) water purification Overseas Lease Group Facts and Figures is a vehicle, equipment, shelter, and systems, T complete Man/Disaster/Refugee communications and Founded: 2003 Camp leasing business that specializes in IT equipment, solar IPOA Member Since: 2008 providing customized lease solutions to energy systems, Head Office: Fort Lauderdale, FL multi-national companies, government modular buildings, Contact: Tracy Badcock agencies, and NGOs operating in developing water storage, Email: [email protected] countries. The main focus of the company is hospital and medical Web: www.overseasleasegroup.com to provide financing for our clients’ projects facilities, inclusive of in developing countries that may normally be all engineering, construction, infrastructure Equipment, or a Complete Camp to simplify challenging environments in which to and all FFI details. financial planning, structure and overall operate. Building strong alliances has allowed project coordination. OLG began with a great focus on leasing OLG to fully and satisfy the individual needs The OLG Corporate Headquarters is customers large and small size fleets of of each project. Whether leasing vehicles, located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida with an armored and non-armored project vehicles equipment or complete camps, OLG office and personnel located in Kabul, including buses, construction trucks, and continues to provide the following benefits Afghanistan. Lease Support Services, our even aircraft. Over time, the company has that allow clients to mobilize and operate subsidiary contract administrators, are added to the product or leasable assets worldwide: located in Parsippany, New Jersey. available to the Humanitarian, Military and • financing solutions that allow capital Going forward, OLG plans to continue Industrial oriented customers to meet their funds to be utilized for several projects building strong alliances and partnerships unique needs. During the last year, OLG has and core purposes; that allow the company to supply financing formed alliances with shelter companies, • improved cash flow management for all commodities and assignment specialty equipment manufacturers, and commitments in all emerging countries. To various companies that supply needed • ability to relocate vehicles and equipment provide comprehensive service and more infrastructure for complete Man/Work/ to alternate projects in different countries timely response to disaster relief needs of Refugee/Disaster Relief Camps. OLG works • the ability to choose product make, model NGOs and time sensitive projects, OLG plans with each customer to facet the project and or equipment type. to expand its regional offices to include finance everything together: generators, OLG will package Vehicles, Shelters, Dubai, UAE within the next year.

8 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: U.S. Policy.

M ICHAEL SHANK U.S. Policy in Iraq: A Plague on Both Houses Despite Some Progress, There is Much Work to be Done

OR all of Washington’s white papers reluctantly, some gleefully – that the surge Washington’s responses to Iraq – whether on the war in Iraq, testimonies by was showing signs of success. This was sectarian-related citations and strategies for F General David Petraeus and irrespective of the fact that “there was no subdivisions, benchmark boosterism, Ambassador Ryan Crocker, and wonkish one left to kill,” to quote one reporter inside 30,000-strong surges or armored Anbar retching over the war’s latest development – Iraq, since Baghdad was already subdivided awakenings – is that none will work. the recent routing of Iraq Prime Minister into separate Sunni and Shia enclaves, On sectarianism, the champions of a Nouri al-Maliki by Shiite cleric Muqtada al- encased by U.S.-built miles-long walls. subdivided Iraq have, thankfully, lowered Sadr, for example – the cures counseled by Regardless, the troop surge substantially their campaign flags. Migrating Kurds, Congress, the candidates, and the shifted American opinion. The majority Sunnis and Shiites to their corresponding Administration continue to be nauseatingly opinion in 2007 favored a return of troops as positions in northern, central and southern simplistic: withdrawal or stay the course. soon as possible. It lost its majority in 2008. Iraq would, no doubt – much like the 1947 The contrasting spectrum of solutions is stark – from immediate withdrawal to an unimaginable 100-year presence – and the criteria for success, or anything remotely close to a “win” constantly shifting.

Sectarianism In the early years of the war, fingers pointed to virulent and violent Sunni-Shia sectarianism, which was nonexistent pre- invasion (intermarriages were frequent, integrated nonsectarian military common), as the prime obstacle to ultimate Iraq war victory. The number of times members of Congress used the word “sectarian” on the Senate and House floors to describe the impossibility of a stable Iraq was Amb. Ryan Crocker, Vice-President Dick Cheney and Gen. David Petraeus at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. extraordinary. It was the buzz word to use. PHOTO: THE WHITE HOUSE This preoccupation with sectarianism formed the foundation of a proposal posited Conversely, those favoring a stay of US split of India into two states – cause later by Senate Foreign Relations Committee forces in Iraq until the country stabilized countless casualties, further uproot the chair Sen. Joe Biden (D-Delaware), increased in number. millions of Iraq’s internally displaced Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon, and others, peoples, and eventually leave a lingering that Iraq be split into three sections, along Anbar Province distaste for the “other” – much like the sectarian lines. Balkanize Iraq, they said, Political gains were needed, however, to Balkanized Serbia and Kosovo continue to and sectarianism will be summarily silenced. justify the new troop levels as concerns struggle with. Had the idea of a subdivided

Benchmarks mounted regarding the infeasibility of a Iraq taken root, essentially the U.S. would As Congress quieted on sectarian military-only approach. Surge-induced have taken a united Iraq, wherein pre- citations, Washington latched on, instead, to success was merely a management of violent invasion national identity trumped sectarian so-called benchmarks, coupled with the semi conflict, not a transformation of it. Thus, lines, and not only exacerbated ethnic and -absurd metaphoric call for Iraqis to stand Iraq’s Anbar Province became the poster religious differences but corralled Iraqis into up as Americans stood down. Assessing child for success in a bizarre throwback to camps of perpetual non-coexistence, with whether Baghdad met any of Washington’s the Iran-Iraq War, a war in which both sides the central-based Sunnis left to fight over the 18 indicators for success, it quickly became received strategic assistance from the resource-rich north and south. clear that Iraq was nowhere near the mark. Americans. Similarly, in Anbar, U.S. forces On benchmarks, to continue to call for This public benchmarking faded fast as were funding former Sunni insurgents who accountability when Iraq’s governmental unmet expectations ultimately implicated detested, and were eager to kill, the very capacity is near nonexistent is naïve. Many the U.S. for inadequate capacity and Shiite leaders the U.S. simultaneously in the country think that an Iraq government institution-building of Iraq’s government. supported. These “concerned local citizens” fails to exist at all. Politicians positioned as they were so unsuitably named, or within the “Green Zone” have little power Troop Surge “awakening councils” provided the outside it. National infrastructure – the Attempting to bolster the besmirched Pentagon, and even Washington’s war necessities of electricity, water, sanitation, benchmarks with brute force, and, critics, with a compelling story: local Sunnis schools, roads, hospitals – fails to function, concurrently, exemplify a renewed equipped and trained by U.S. forces, rising forcing Iraqi citizens to look elsewhere for commitment to Iraq’s security, the White up in opposition to al Qaeda. In the global CONTINUED PAGE 12 House moved decisively, and controversially, war on terrorism, this was showcase towards a military surge. Immediate results material and breathed new life into a indicated a positive impact and as post-surge formidable and flagging fight. E-mail [email protected] The author is the government relations adviser at attacks diminished, Democrats and George Mason University’s Institute for Conflict Republicans alike acknowledged – some The sad reality in the entirety of Analysis and Resolution.

9 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Development.

J ULIETTE R. SHEDD Iraq Policy in the Post-Bush Era U.S. Presidential Candidates Priorities in Iraq will have Lasting Impacts

VALUATING Iraq policy must start Iraqi government” — funding governmental out troops engaged in combat operations at a with identifying U.S. national and non-governmental organizations that pace of one or two brigades every month, to E interests in Iraq. If we determine that can aid the Iraqi people directly. Specialized be completed by the end of next year.” He long term stability in Iraq is not necessary, units would engage in targeted operations would increase diplomatic dialogues with than a pull out of U.S. troops and against al Qaeda in Iraq and provide Iraq’s neighbors to build a security compact reallocation of funds and manpower makes “security for U.S. troops and personnel in and focus on the humanitarian disaster in sense. However, there appears to be Iraq and train and equip Iraqi security Iraq with an emphasis on holding war consensus that a stable, peaceful Iraq is in services ... but only to the extent that such criminals accountable. He also plans to leave the U.S. interest. In that case, U.S. policy training is actually working.” Clinton’s plan some troops in Iraq to strike al Qaeda, toward Iraq should seek to employ the replaces U.S. military muscle with protect diplomatic and military personnel, lessons learned from other peace processes. diplomatic and reconstruction focus and and protect civilians from genocide. The three leading Presidential candidates places heavy emphasis on making Iraq a UN- An emphasis on engaging with have made Iraq a main focus of the dominated peacebuilding effort. international actors is appropriate. Focusing

In their hands (potentially) is the fate of the Iraqi people — Democratic presidential candidates Senator Hillary Clinton (D-New York) and Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain (R-Arizona). PHOTOS: SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, SEN. BARACK OBAMA, SEN. JOHN MCCAIN

campaign and spelled out policy prescrip- While appealing to Americans on increasing international involvement tions. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-New York) and frustrated with the war, this policy assumes would allow actors perceived as less partisan Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois) emphasize efforts to train Iraqi security forces can be to enter the political space in Iraq. But from political and economic reconstruction, while sped up enough to allow Iraq to provide its the standpoint of achieving a long-term Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) pushes for a own security within months. Recruiting and peaceful Iraq, Obama’s plan has two major security-first stabilization policy. Whether training civilian police and military forces is faults. First, it places an extraordinary security or reconstruction is emphasized will an essential part of a good stabilization plan. amount of emphasis on the role of the have a profound impact on Iraq’s future. Multi-ethnic integrated forces can be a United Nations in Iraq. Reconstruction significant force for stability. Clinton’s efforts must be coordinated if they are to be Hillary Clinton emphasis on doing it quickly and effective, and replacing U.S. troops with UN Clinton’s policy toward Iraq focuses on disengaging if it is not effective, does not forces would significantly complicate any political and economic reconstruction allow time to deal with the inevitable efforts to make strategic, comprehensive efforts. Her Web site promises that she challenges and setbacks that arise in efforts to achieve stability. It is also far from would have a “clear, viable plan to bring our building a legitimate security force. The the clear that the UN and its member troops home starting with the first 60 days outcome of this policy is more likely to be a nations would engage in Iraq at the level of her administration.” Her article in the hastily fashioned security structure that will suggested. Bringing peace to Iraq will not be November-December 2007 issue of Foreign not survive the U.S. troop pull out and may a simple task, requiring significantly more Affairs states “While working to stabilize well continue to be viewed as corrupt and peace enforcement than the UN traditionally Iraq as our forces withdraw, I will focus U.S. ethnically based. takes on. aid on helping Iraqis, not propping up the Barack Obama Clinton and Obama both propose that E-mail [email protected] Obama’s emphasis on removing troops solving the economic problems of individual The author is a PhD Candidate at the Institute for is even more specific. His Web site explains Iraqis will bring about needed security gains, Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason that he plans to “immediately begin to pull University. CONTINUED PAGE 12

10 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008

The Future of Iraq: U.S. Policy Iraq Policy in the Post-Bush Era curtail their Iraq operations implies a coordinated effort to improve both FROM PAGE 10 security and economic conditions over the ignoring the idea that security must come John McCain long term. McCain does not provide detail alongside reconstruction, if not precede it. John McCain’s plan for Iraq includes a on how he would build the police and armed The removal of U.S. troops in large numbers more robust counterinsurgency campaign forces, nor does it indicate how other not matched by increased local security that would clear areas and hold them, international partners might be included in capability will likely increase the violence allowing “economic and political the process. The strength of McCain’s plan is levels in Iraq. Neither Clinton nor Obama’s development to occur in a secure an emphasis on maintaining security while plans provide real insight into how they plan environment.” His campaign site states that developing effective Iraqi security forces, to fill the security vacuum in Iraq. The last the U.S. should accelerate “the training and this strategy would be most effectively five years have shown how challenging equipping of Iraq armed forces and police to employed by a truly international coalition, building Iraqi security and police forces can enable them to play a key role in securing not just the U.S. and close allies. be, what would they change to train effective Iraq. Only in a secure environment will the security forces in a year? development of Iraq’s political and economic The emphasis that Clinton and Obama Neither Clinton nor Obama specifically institutions have a chance to succeed.” His place on incorporating international address the role of U.S. civilians or U.S. international efforts would center on partners in the efforts in Iraq is necessary, contractors in Iraq. In the short-term, the increasing international pressure on Syria but a significant withdrawal of U.S. troops task of removing 140,000 troops and their and Iran to stop “aiding and abetting” would paralyze security efforts and make it equipment would keep logistical support in violence in Iraq. McCain’s plan would impossible for political and economic gains demand; but the lack of permanent bases involve only modest and gradual changes for to transform Iraq into a stable state. and presence would mean a narrowing of U.S. contractors. The semi-permanent McCain’s plan places the correct emphasis logistical contracts after the drawdown. presence of U.S. troops and likely increased on improving and maintaining security, but However, the removal of U.S. troops could troop levels would require the need for by maintaining Iraq as a primarily U.S. mean significant increases in the contracts ongoing logistical support. With his operation, it misses the benefit of making available to private security firms as emphasis on clearing and holding areas, a reconstruction in Iraq a truly international reconstruction companies increasingly turn modest increase in private security contracts project. We should hope that our next to private security to protect their might be expected. President will be able to lead us toward a operations. But if the security situation Maintaining a strong presence in Iraq policy in Iraq that recognizes the need for deteriorates as quickly as it might, U.S. and emphasizing the training of Iraqi police security first and incorporates international companies and NGO’s charged with and military are important priorities to partners in a collaborative effort toward a reconstruction, civil society building, and achieve a peaceful Iraq. He uses the stable, peaceful Iraq. local capacity building, might shut down or language of politico-military strategy that U.S. Policy in Iraq: A Plague on Both Houses

FROM PAGE 9 point, since indefinite financing of an government completely irrelevant. And essentially imprisoned Iraq is untenable while al Qaeda may get a thorough thrashing political representation and personal given America’s recession, this will backfire in Anbar, Iraq as a whole is worse off. protection. Until priority is placed on these mightily. Current ceasefires, which some in What now, then, if these approaches are points, the Baghdad-based government will Washington think are harbingers of ostensibly ineffective in establishing a stable forever remain impotent as a political force, impending peace, are merely politicized Iraq? Before specific tactics are even and benchmarks embarrassingly pointless. pauses as militias wait out the surge, regroup mentionable, the modus operandi that On the 30,000-strong troop surge, one and rethink strategies. landed America in this quagmire, and the wonders what they are guarding, or On Anbar awakenings, to further fund one in Afghanistan, must first be questioned, conversely, if they will ever be able to leave. former Sunni insurgents – who up until before it is doomed to repeat itself in Iran or Baghdad is now a maze of walls and zones recently fired freely on Americans – as they Pakistan by any of the three presidential separating the increasing hatred between the turn their sights instead on al Qaeda, both candidates, all of whom seem poised to now strikingly segregated Sunni and Shia undermines the concept of a centralized repeat the mistakes of the past. The communities. Furthermore, the “Green Iraqi government in Baghdad and escalates prevailing notion that regime change is Zone” government is ineffective beyond its Sunni-Shia violence. Once holding a feasible via unilateral, military mechanisms armed reach. If government services were privileged position in Saddam Hussein’s that are socially, culturally and religiously ill functional, that might be cause for security government, Sunnis got the boot when the -equipped to navigate the ground post- concern. But with 70 percent of Iraqis U.S. arrived and have never fully invasion must be upended. Moreover, to lacking clean water, 80 percent without reintegrated despite well-intentioned de- assume that security in any nation state is effective sanitation, 90 percent of hospitals Baathification legislation. The Shia-led possible without sufficient attention paid to with no medical and surgical supplies, and leadership in Baghdad wants nothing to do the political and economic needs of society nearly half struggling in absolute poverty, with anything Sunni and consequently, as a whole is wholly unrealistic. Yet this one wonders what the surge is securing. If Sunnis are left to fend for their survival, thinking, which continues to characterize the the surge intended to give reprieve to allow leaving them ripe for the Pentagon picking. current president’s policies, will hardly get for further reconstruction, to address these It is the American Wild West all over the Washington regime change it needs in basic needs, it might have merit. But the again. Equipping local Sunnis with the the November presidential elections. And extra boots are bent on bolstering a more money and munitions to manage their own until it does, the war in Iraq, and others like segregated society, not a lesser one. At some affairs makes a Baghdad-based centralized it, will continue to plague this country.

12 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Development.

M ICHAEL O’HANLON Don’t Forget the Economy Economic Development Key to Progress in Iraq

RAQ’S security situation has improved Not all is so good, even among those tedly imperfect, but still useful, basic dramatically over the past year — even broad areas that we can track at the national developmental information on the I if, as General David Petraeus recently level. Household fuel supplies are inching overwhelming majority of the world’s told Congress, it is hardly time to start up slightly, but only after a couple years of countries, including some others popping the champagne bottles just yet. stagnation or even decline relative to experiencing conflict. Few of these countries Iraq's political scene is also improving. By demand. Foreign investment remains very have the huge foreign presence currently my benchmarks used now in Brookings’ Iraq modest due to ongoing uncertainty about found in Iraq, yet data is still gathered and Index, the political situation merits a score Iraq’s security and its future. And of course, vetted. Information on child survival, of 5 on a scale of 1 to 11. This is hardly a unemployment remains quite severe. primary education, literacy, and life strong grade, and even the progress made to Beyond those conclusions, though, data expectancy is readily available for most date could be reversed, but there is progress is sparse. While the U.S. government can African states, for example. Why can’t we do nonetheless. point to plenty of individual projects that are at least as well in Iraq? Meanwhile, what is happening on the progressing or reaching the ribbon-cutting One place to start is to ask the UN, economic side? As students and phase, we do not have a sense of overall which produces most of the above- practitioners of counterinsurgency and national trends. How many Iraqis get water? mentioned data for other countries, to nation building well know, the economy is How many have their trash picked up, or expand its similar operations throughout the third pillar of any successful mission, sewage removed dependably from their Iraq. UNICEF has recently issued a report on along with the security and political neighborhoods? How many get the water the state of Iraq’s children, but its data on environments, and can never be neglected. they need to irrigate their crops? How many education is old, and in fact the report Yet apart from occasional statistics about get basic health care when they need it? How provides a nationwide estimate on the Iraq's full coffers, blessed by US$100 a many of their kids are in school? And how do availability of basic utilities only for the barrel oil, we do not hear much about the all these numbers compare to last year, or single specific matter of sewers (UNICEF economy these days. the latter year’s of Saddam’s rule? This last estimates that, outside of Baghdad, 20 It is not for lack of trying, or for lack of question is important because Iraqis’ percent of Iraq’s children presently have use resources. American officials and contractors perceptions of the performance of of proper sewerage facilities). continue to do remarkable things at their current government and of the United Another approach would use polling considerable personal risk and hardship in States will always be formed in part by and surveys to gauge Iraqi attitudes about Iraq. Hospitals and electricity plants are comparing today's conditions to those of the quality of life indicators. To be sure, such being built, transportation infrastructure pre-invasion period. surveys produce imprecise information at improved, water and waste treatment plants American aid agencies do not have best, and only become truly meaningful over constructed. There are lots of ribbon cutting viable strategies to collect meaningful data, a period of months or years as we can ceremonies and lots of timelines being met, perhaps because they are deferring to Iraqi discern trends in perceptions. But it is even if others sometimes slip, and even if authorities on such matters. With American better to start gathering such information corruption or poor performance have aid dollars drying up even as Iraqi late than never. Also, even if survey data is marred a few efforts. government funds increase dramatically due bound to be inexact, perceptions are hugely But the other striking, and lamentable, to the high price of crude, it is increasingly important when the issue is building a fact about our economic efforts in Iraq is clear that while security remains in large nation, healing sectarian wounds, and that for the most part we don’t have part an American task, economic reconstruc- restoring to the extent possible the image of the slightest idea of how well they are tion and development must be led by Iraqis. America. We need to know if Iraqis believe working. That has to change. So we bow out of the debate at times. their lives are getting better. To be fair, a few more things are in fact This is an understandable decision in 2007 was the year of security known about Iraq's overall economic one sense, but a dangerous one in another. improvement in Iraq, a remarkable period of performance — beyond the individual We must know how well the economy in Iraq unmistakable and hugely encouraging anecdotes and specific completed local is doing. How else can we know whether to progress in reducing violence. Of course, projects. Inflation is within bounds. Oil advise Iraqis to undertake a massive jobs 2008 needs to continue to be a year for Iraqi production has increased gradually (though creation program to alleviate the political progress to reinforce that security only modestly). Due in large part to the unemployment rate? Or to revamp strategies trajectory. But just as much, it needs to be improved security environment, electricity for national infrastructure, focusing on the year of the economy. With the security production and distribution finally took a smaller and more local systems rather than environment so much better, that is now substantial step forward in 2007, for the first larger ones vulnerable either to sabotage or possible. But we will only know how well we time since the 2003 invasion. Without even to politicians’ bickering and interference? are doing, and what further policy changes counting the informal electricity sector, How else can we pressure countries like may be necessary, if we recognize the which has itself grown, official numbers Saudi Arabia to do more to help Iraq, if we importance of economic trends — and increased 10 to 20 percent late in 2007 — cannot clearly explain the amount of help become curious enough to study them with though there have been problems in 2008 Iraq still needs? How can we convince war- the same care and attention that we devote that will have to be cleared up as the hot weary American voters to stay with the Iraq to understanding Iraq’s violence. season arrives in Mesopotamia. Cell phone effort (even as it is gradually downsized over ownership and usage have skyrocketed; the coming years) if they have no compre- national port capacity has increased hensive sense of how it is really going? E-mail [email protected] substantially; the internet is making some We should be able to collect better data. The author is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings inroads. Each year the World Bank produces admit- Institute.

13 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Development.

J ESSICA KRUVANT-WILSON A Tough Road to Educating Iraqis A Case Study of the Challenges Involved in a Key Aspect of Post-Conflict Development

NE of the key pillars of post-conflict Special Inspector General for Iraq resulted in women making up 55 percent of reconstruction is the rehabilitation of Reconstruction's summer 2006 report, the teachers trained in capacity development. O an effective education system. This education sector along with the agriculture Seventy-six Model Schools were particular component of development is key sector, were the “most completed” of U.S. rehabilitated and furnished with science to ensure that the standard of living for the Government reconstruction efforts. RISE laboratories, libraries, computer country’s next generation is sufficient to ended in 2004 and Ed II in early 2007. laboratories, generators and air hopefully prevent a spiraling back into To be sure, a good deal of conditioners. Further, all model school conflict. reconstruction is still needed in Iraq’s teachers received training in sciences, When Creative Associates International, education sector as well as many others. As pedagogy, Information and Communication Inc. began the implementation of the U.S. the leading implementer of education Technologies and English-as-a-Second Agency for International Development’s programs in Iraq for USAID through RISE Language. education programs in Iraq in 2003, what it and Ed II, Creative’ staff saw firsthand the A total of 84 schools had been selected found was far more dire than anticipated. range of needs the Iraqis confront as they by a commission composed the Ministry of move forward. Education, USAID and Creative, the latter of But building on the which directly managed the rehabilitation of progress made is no 76 of those schools. Due to the non- small feat. U.S. support permissive security situation, the Ministry of is vital to provide Iraqi Education selected four schools in Al Anbar school children the Province that were adequate for being used education – and their as model schools; likewise, four schools in teachers the proper Tameen Province (Kirkuk) were also in a training – that they non-permissive security environment and need to help Iraq on were rehabilitated by the U.S. Army. the long road toward Under a Small Grants program for peace and prosperity. school refurbishment, numerous requests In the 1990s, war and were received from communities seeking UN sanctions exacted a funds to replace mud schools with safe heavy toll on the Iraqi structures. Creative monitored the effort but educational system. the management was carried out by PTAs The tight control of the and local residents which engendered central government left community ownership of the new schools. It a legacy of neglected also encouraged school safety and upkeep. facilities, under-paid Small grants were also used to upgrade A teacher and pupils at a newly restored elementary school in Iraq. and under-qualified teacher training centers and some model PHOTO: CLAUDE MCKINNEY/U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE BAKGROUND PHOTO: POLLI BARNES KELLER/U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE teachers, and no schools. national commitment An Education Management Information For a nation that once boasted the best to education. Hard economic conditions led System (EMIS) was also developed for the education system in the Middle East, the many students to drop out of school to Ministry of Education, including 27 servers Iraqi schools exemplified years of neglect support families. Female students weren’t containing 11 separate operating modules with overcrowded facilities often lacking encouraged to pursue their education and and monitors that would allow tracking of electricity, proper sanitation, furniture, lab community members were excluded from school conditions, personnel, payroll, equipment and books in libraries. In some interacting with school staff. The decline of inventory, student records, integrated villages, classes were held in structurally the educational system was tragic, especially reporting and announcements. EMIS, a web- unsafe mud schools. for a country with such great pride in its based system, was made to be accessible in Knowing that a strong education system contributions to Arab culture. all Directorates of Education. The EMIS would help stabilize Iraq following the fall of The program leaves behind many system was programmed in Arabic, Kurdish Saddam Hussein, USAID committed funds accomplishments that will serve as a and English. Hands-on training and the to support and rebuild the Iraqi educational foundation for continued reconstruction and development of operational manuals will system under the Revitalization of Iraqi stability. Through the training of master help Iraqis oversee the operation and Schools and Stabilization of Education teachers in a cascade system, Ed II trained maintenance of these systems. project, known as RISE and its follow-on, 40,197 teachers in child-centered The Iraqi education system – its the Support for Iraqi Basic Education pedagogical and technical subject skills. students, teachers, administrators and project, known as Ed II. Under RISE, 31,838 teachers were trained, parents alike – need the kinds of assistance The noble goal of rebuilding the Iraqi bringing to 72,035 the combined total of the U.S. government can provide so that the educational system, however, was also teachers trained under both programs. nation can someday return to its complicated and challenging because of Under both programs, more than preeminence in the Middle East with security threats. Still, according to the U.S. 500,000 school kits were delivered to universal primary school enrollment and primary and secondary school students high rates of literacy among girls and boys. E-mail [email protected] throughout Iraq to lessen the financial Through education, these students – and The author is a Senior Associate at the Creative burden of school supplies on parents Iraq – stand a chance for brighter futures. Center for Security and Stabilization. Further, a high sensitivity to gender equality

14 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Security.

C HRISTIAN LOWE A Surge in Confidence in Iraq’s Security Situation The Streets of Iraq are Barely Recognizable to Only One Year Ago

AY you’re an operator who did a stint The story of last year’s “surge” of the province dropping precipitously over in Iraq in 2006. Back then you were 30,000 additional combat troops has most of the past year, Marines — the bulk of S dodging sniper fire, popping smoke become a tale of two Iraqs. In a sense, it forces in Anbar – who were girding for a when you jumped out of the vehicle, taking always was; but now that second Iraq – the brawl on this year’s rotation have had to dial cover in any building you could kick a door peaceful one – is a lot bigger. Violence has back their warrior ways for a softer through and powering through IED dropped so precipitously and for so long in approach. Though their thoughts are tinged ambushes a couple times per day. Back then, some areas the troops there are asking to with disappointment, many are nevertheless Iraq was a crazy place – there were few ditch some of their body armor, and in practical about the new reality. places in the country from Baghdad-north others, Iraqi troops have moved in where “There's not much going on this time that you could see more than a few quiet U.S. forces had dominated. around,” said Cpl. Ken Dickerson with the hours on any one day. It’s not all candied almonds and chai Hawaii-based 3rd Battalion, 3rd Marines. Now fast forward to January 2008. tea, though. In places like Tikrit, Mosul, “But at least we're not losing anybody.” Remember that market you dreaded driving parts of Diyala province and some Baghdad The two years preceding 3/3’s August through the last time you were there? Pull neighborhoods, al Qaeda militants and deployment were some of the most violent over and buy some bread from that brick Shiite insurgents continue to rack up the for U.S. forces in its nearly five year oven joint on the corner of Routes Michigan coalition death toll. There’s hard fighting occupation of Iraq. But since the surge of and Green, you’ll be fine. How about that still to do in those areas, but for the most rule never to stay in one area for more than a part, the post-surge Iraq is a very different CONTINUED NEXT PAGE few seconds? Cut the places you have to do place. that anymore in half. And don’t mistake Perhaps the most dramatic change can E-mail [email protected] those AK-47-toting Iraqis with sweat suits be felt in Anbar province – once considered The author is Managing Editor for news at and headscarves wrapped around their faces the principle command and control node for Military.com. He recently returned from a month for insurgents. They’re your best friends al Qaeda in Iraq and a province that was -long embed with U.S. forces in Iraq. It was his now. deemed “lost” in 2006. With violence across third trip to Iraq since June of 2003.

An American soldier patrols the roads of Karadah, Iraq. PHOTO: STAFF SGT. JASON T. BAILEY/U.S. AIR FORCE

15 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Security.

FROM PREVIOUS PAGE been to Iraq before, you know the routine. street corner in Tikrit that doesn’t have some “We don’t want a sniper to get a good shot sort of police checkpoint. Pickup trucks 30,000 troops launched in early 2007, off on us,” one Soldier said. “So we keep bristling with machine guns and blue-shirted violent incidents in Anbar have dropped to moving all the time.” Iraqis storm through the city. You can even levels unthinkable just a year ago. In the home region of the deposed Iraqi hear police sirens whining across town in According to officials with II Marine dictator Saddam Hussein, the security that pursuit of criminals and miscreants. Expeditionary Force, there were about 170 has only recently descended is tenuous at And that’s a big change for many of “significant events” in Fallujah during the best. With the Iraqi army largely pushed out these soldiers, who expected a hard fight first week of January 2007. That includes to the surrounding towns and villages to when they trained for the deployment. “It’s a firefights, IED attacks, mine explosions and help U.S. forces root out the most tenacious lot better than what I thought it would be roadside bombs that were discovered, but holdouts in other areas, the focus in Tikrit is like,” said Spec. Sadie Hagemann, 21, of that did not detonate. By the last week of on building a durable police force that can Sheridan, California, who’s on her first December, the number of "sigex," as they're provide security to the local population and deployment. “I didn’t expect the IPs to be as called, in Fallujah dropped to less than 20. at the same time keep the insurgency from active as they are.” In Ramadi, the capital of the Sunni- sparking up again. But sometimes the mission of taking dominated Anbar province and a troubled For the American Military Police units their hands off the reins of the IP clashes hot spot for years, incidents dropped from and the civilian advisors that help them with the still simmering terrorist threat. On 198 in one week of February 2007, to three achieve their mission it's a tall order. With January 21, the MPs received a report that in by the last week of the year. And in far corruption a part of everyday life and a the nearby town of Owja — which is where western Anbar, the Marine commander policing philosophy making the transition Saddam Hussein’s body is interred — the there reports around 15 sigex per week – and from being an instrument of oppression to a entire Iraqi police force had quit en masse. that includes IEDs found by coalition troops force that serves the community, putting the This worried American military command- but not detonated. Marine officials attribute local constables on the right track takes ers, who thought the exodus was a sign that this massive shift to a population fed up with constant interaction and a deep reservoir of a major terrorist hit was in the works. al Qaeda in Iraq's terrorist tactics and patience. Suspicions were high as the MPs rolled out rejuvenated tribal governance that cast its “Our motto is ‘no free chicken,’” said the next day, speeding past the understated lot with American efforts to bolster the Staff Sgt. Joe Cline, a platoon sergeant with tomb of Saddam, whose portrait bedecks the national government. the 56th Military Police Company, who arch above its entryway. They don’t like Whatever the reason for the reduction added that their main mission is to cut the Owja, where many of the residents’ in violence, Marines in the field have Iraqi police’s dependence on the U.S. allegiances reportedly fall in the Baathist switched from rifles to paint brushes and military. camp. from bullets to handshakes. For some of Each of the platoons with the 56th But after a round of hearty handshakes, leathernecks on their first deployment to Military Police Company — which is cups of bitter Turkish coffee and an Iraq, it's a bit of a let-down. One Marine comprised of Army reservists from Arizona, unhealthy round of chain smoking with the who's a veteran of the fierce Fallujah fight in California and Nevada — is divided into city police chief, Maj. Qusay Abdul Razaq, November of 2004 said it's been tough to smaller Police Transition Teams, called things were smoothed over. “It was just a keep his Marines motivated after regaling “PiTTs.” Paired with civilian contractors misunderstanding with the battalions,” them with stories of that epic battle. They drawn from police departments from across Razaq said, referring to the so-called came here to fight, he said, and instead the country, the PiTT teams patrol the towns Emergency Response Units paramilitary they're patrolling streets teeming with outside the sprawling Camp Speicher base police, which conducted a large raid in Owja people, devoid of enemy activity. just to the north of Tikrit, visiting police without informing the local police. In fact, 3/3’s Lima Company hadn't stations, meeting with their leaders and “Everything’s okay now.” fired a single shot in anger in months, its assessing what they need to keep cops on the Minutes later, a squad of Soldiers from commander, Capt. Quintin Jones, said. And beat. Alpha Company, 1st Special Troops Battalion that's just fine with him. As local police take On a patrol to the Tikrit patrol station, of the 101st Airborne Division came into the greater control of their towns and local MPs wanted to see if a shooting incident that chief’s office. They’d heard the same report citizens help keep al Qaeda malcontents occurred the previous day showed up on the of a mass exodus and were loaded for a fight from detonating bombs in their markets, the station’s log books. After a furious series of with an enemy assault that never came. Marines here are left with little to do but mistranslations and fumbling through piles Though all the Soldiers left the Owja police reconstruction and institution building - an of papers, the Iraqi policeman said he didn’t headquarters relieved that they didn’t have overall mission that has one every Marine have the shooting — which occurred just a to conduct an all-out assault, many were still can appreciate. “It might be a little boring block away — on his books. suspicious that the underlying tension here now,” said Lance Cpl. Parker Winnett, a “That was reported at another station,” hadn’t truly abated. “I hate Owja,” said Spec. radio operator with Lima, 3/3. “But at least the Iraqi policeman told the MPs. Anthony Adamo, 21, of Tucson, Arizona, an I’ll come home alive.” Frustrated, the MPs looked at each other MP with the 56th MP Company. “There’s so One place it’s definitely not boring, with dismay. many terrorists there that we can’t pick up.” however, is Saddam’s old stomping grounds “One of the things we try to do is to get True, there are still places in Iraq where of Tikrit. Now considered a conduit for al these guys talking to each other,” said Staff bombs kill, bullets fly and mortars whistle Qaeda militants streaming north and east Sgt. David Heath, a platoon sergeant with through the air. But transport yourself back out of Anbar and Baghdad, you’ve still got to the 56th MPs. “We’ve had shooting incidents just a year and it’s a very different Iraq you’ll keep moving to the “sniper dance.” You’re happen right out front that they didn’t see. Though violence is down and reconcilia- out in the open. There are houses all around respond to.” tion is up, the big question the troops in Iraq you — cover and concealment for enemy Despite their lack of coordination with are asking themselves is will it hold. And sharpshooters to plink off a U.S. Soldier other stations and security forces in and none of them really wants to come back to Stand there, wait a few seconds, shift to the around Tikrit, their presence is definitely felt find out. right — then do it all over again. If you’ve throughout the area. It’s tough to pass a

16 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Security.

G RAHAM KERR Security in Iraq: The Private Security Perspective Iraq Still Poses Significant Security Challenges

HE most certain test by which we judge whether a country is really “T free is the amount of security enjoyed by minorities.”[1] Tahsin al Sheikhly was the Iraqi Government’s spokesman on its recent security crackdown, when the government of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki moved against the Shia Militia, in particular Jeysh Al Mahdi (JAM). During the resultant upsurge in violence in Baghdad, Mr. al Sheikhly’s family home was assaulted by around 40 Militia fighters armed with small arms and rockets launchers; his house was burnt down during the ensuing gun battle and he was taken hostage. He was released after five days when a tentative agreement was brokered with the assistance of Iran. Mr. al Sheikhly recounted his ordeal in an interview with a British journalist from The Times newspaper. He recognized most of his kidnappers, who made no attempt to disguise themselves, but he will not be hunting them down now. “Maybe later. Now everything is confusing, there is nothing clear for us. Maybe after we settled everything we will look for them, we will impose the law...”[2] He also commented reflectively upon on the state of the various houses in which he was held during his ordeal. “Most of the houses were very, very simple and very, very poor. They haven’t an ashtray. They haven’t a table, a plastic one, they are drinking not clean water. If the Government doesn’t take care to improve Still the most desirable way to get around Iraq. their lives, everything will be gone ... our PHOTO: U.S. ARMY. strategy was looking always at security, not for peace. We need social peace more than were a series of high level assessments that Following the removal of Saddam security.”[3] stated that some key parts of the country Hussein, the democratically-elected One feels that Lord Acton would be were virtually ungovernable and civil war government has not been able to assert its disappointed at this stage. Nonetheless, was inevitable (especially some quarters of authority, and Iraq’s internal security security is one of the central pillars of any Baghdad and Al Anbar Region). This dire declined steadily until mid 2007. This civilized society; its interrelated mainstays situation spawned the ‘Surge’ of some impeded all reconstruction efforts and are: effective government (hallmarked with 30,000 American fighting troops during the engendered a state of lawlessness. good governance); strong institutions of Spring and Summer of last year. This action Corruption, nepotism and economic state (especially those of law and order); a pulled Iraq back from the brink. stagnation have all exacerbated the malaise sound education system; and a well When I initially drafted this assessment and remain significant problems. developed social and economic in mid-March, I was focused on the Polarization into the dominant groupings infrastructure.[4] Most would agree that durability of the significantly lower levels of (Sunni, Shia and Kurd) has been a further despite its potential, particularly economic, violence, which had been the predominant consequence with fears that an already Iraq’s mainstays are currently of inadequate success of the Surge. A week is a long time in partisan dominated insurgency could strength and it will take years rather than politics, and this adage is no more true than degenerate into a full-blown civil war. The months to rectify this. in Iraq. My focus shifted to take into account multi-faceted nature of the insurgency and Any article, especially on Iraq, is the Iraqi Prime Minister’s premature move the lack of any unifying purpose increases its inevitably a snapshot to some extent; against the Militia.[5] Its lack of success was complexity. Foreign fighters, inter-sectarian underlying trends tend to remain relatively largely due to both the plans and the troops CONTINUED NEXT PAGE consistent but the degree to which their involved being inadequately prepared. This influence is felt fluctuates considerably. For snapshot attempts to capture the underlying example, at the apogee of the internal trends and their current degrees of E-mail [email protected] violence in late 2006 and early 2007, there influence. The author is Chief Operating Officer of Hart Security.

17 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: Security.

FROM PREVIOUS PAGE dangerous place in which to operate in any concerns can always find some evidence to respect – commercially, militarily or support their case. This should not be militias, religious extremists, tribal factions politically. It is assessed that this is likely to surprising given that the use of private and criminal gangs all have their own remain the case for years rather than security companies in such an environment agendas and espouse violence to a greater or months. is a venture into unchartered waters. lesser extent to achieve their respective ends. From a security standpoint, the dangers However, it is quite clear that the Foreign influences, sometimes well- are probably well known but are either singly reconstruction program, the resupply of intentioned, have generally made a bad or a combination of: coalition forces and the guarding of several situation worse. At the sharp end, foreign • indirect fire including mortars and key installations would not have been fighters — invariably Islamic extremists, rockets; possible without the huge commitment of often with Al Qaeda linkages — have joined • small arms fire from pistols to heavy private security companies and their the fray, bringing higher levels of tactical machine guns, sometimes using armor operators.[7] Military forces could not have and technical expertise plus finance to the piercing bullets; and sustained these demands at the prevailing insurgents.[6] Iran has unquestionably been level of their operations. supporting many of the Shia militia, Syria • Improvised Explosive Devices, which are Private security companies would prefer has provided safe haven to former regime the most deadly element of the insurgent’s to develop a system of self regulation, which loyalists and Turkey has recently conducted armory, particularly the Explosively is usually better informed and more Formed Projectiles which pragmatic than that which is externally have penetrated military generated. To this end, a number of armor. associations have been created. Attacks have generally This whole topic warrants far more become more sophisticated detailed examination than can be afforded in in terms of tactics and this article, which is a self declared snapshot technology. Furthermore, but non-partisan hitherto. The final section intimidation of local is unreservedly partisan but is intended to nationals who work for give an illustration of the work typically Coalition Forces or private undertaken by one of the many private security companies has security companies that has been operating become widespread. in Iraq since 2003. Hart Security Limited Finally, kidnapping has has been heavily involved with providing been a common feature of all security for a number of large and elements of insurgency. It is challenging reconstruction projects estimated that 30-40 Iraqis a throughout Iraq. Most of this has been day are kidnapped (generally within the electrical sector. These tasks have for ransom). They are an typically required that Hart provide static easier target than guards for camps and power lines plus Westerners, who carry mobile teams for work parties, VIPs and higher ransom or political convoys. potential. Hart has always employed as many Driving in Iraq can still be a challenge and even a danger, In Iraq there are several Iraqis as possible on its projects – the most particularly from roadside IEDs. different species of ‘rough at any one time being 3,000. This has 724TH TRANSPORTATION COMPANY/U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE men’ who counter the encouraged local communities to buy into various threats posed by the our projects and brought them much needed cross border military operations against the insurgents – MNF-I and other Coalition employment and income. Hart has also Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK) bases in Forces, Iraqi Army and Police most notably. benefitted from local knowledge and northern Iraq. Coalition Forces are These elements can be violent, but there is information. invariably perceived as an occupation force another significant element to the security In addition to these major projects Hart with an inability to crush the insurgency and milieu, that has provided by civilian private has consistently provided a number of further hampered by the domestic security companies whose role is to deliver Convoy Escort Teams (10 at the most and unpopularity of the campaign. This situation protection and defensive security. Offensive currently four) to protect the resupply created an uncertainty amongst the pro- operations are rightly neither expected of convoys for the U.S. Military. This has Coalition Iraqis whilst providing a sense of nor sanctioned for private security proved to be the most dangerous work. The opportunity for the insurgents. This trend companies. Defining a ‘typical Private Company provided a high profile Personal has been reversed in some areas, most Security Company’ is elusive, but in Iraq Security Detail for Dr. Allawi for a year and notably in Anbar where the Sunni-based there are several common characteristics: also was responsible for the provision of (and U.S.-backed) Awakening Council has security in parts of Baghdad and the Basra • Most of the employees are consultants reputedly removed AZIQ fighters from the area for the elections in early 2005. All of (security operators who are hired for Region. However, as General David Petraeus this enabled clients to work in a more secure specific contracts) with an ex-military or and Ambassador Ryan Croker have made environment but, as for all Private Security field force police background. clear in Washington, recently, progress is Companies, there has been a significant ‘fragile and reversible.’ Any U.S. military • Most provide physical security – for price to pay in ‘Blood and Treasure’. downsizing is very contingent upon the people, camps, convoys and equipment. Typically Private Security operators are capabilities of the Iraqi Army and Police to There has been much scrutiny and experienced, brave and work without the take over their burden. Despite encouraging debate concerning the use of private security same level of support as they were used to in signs, it will be some time before either companies in a war zone. Concerns revolve the military. To be certain, all are there by organization will be fully fit to take on full around the apparent lack of accountability, choice but their contribution to operations responsibility for internal security. Thus, professional standards, regulation and overall in Iraq should be duly recognized. Iraq remains an unpredictable and discipline. As ever, the promoters of these

18 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: The International Perspective.

J OSEPH LACEY-HOLLAND The Coalition of the Whoever is Left The U.S. is Not Quite the Only Force in Iraq.

HE U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 The United Kingdom, which devoted military capabilities. Service personnel from is unlikely to enter the annals of 45,000 personnel to the initial invasion, has both countries conduct combat operations in T history as a triumph for effectively disengaged from major combat Baghdad and Mosul, supporting U.S. Special multilateralism. In spite of American claims operations. After proving inept at combating Forces in their fight against the insurgency. to have secured widespread global support the growing influence of Shiite militiamen in This concentration of forces from the for the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the south and facing mounting casualties, former Soviet bloc is by no means the so-called ‘Coalition of the Willing’ was the British government announced that the coincidental. Many analysts regard such derided as illusory, constituting a list of U.K. would completely withdraw from Basra deployments as politically motivated moves poor, weak and military insignificant states City and maintain just over 4,000 troops at by countries intent on solidifying their that had ‘joined’ the campaign at the behest the regional airport instead. This number is claims to NATO membership. Georgia, of Washington. expected to dwindle further to 2,500 Albania and Macedonia are all chasing Indeed, at the beginning of hostilities in sometime during 2008. Those that remain Membership Action Plans (MAPs) from the March 2003, 98 percent of the combat forces will perform ‘security sector reform’ duties, alliance, whilst both Romania and Bulgaria committed to battle hailed from the United or ‘overwatch’ as it is euphemistically termed remain in the infancy of membership and States and the United Kingdom, with the by the U.K. government. are eager to prove their mettle. final 2 percent coming from Australia, Likewise, the new Australian Labor Beyond these European forces there is a Poland and Denmark. Thus, the 48-member administration of Prime Minister Kevin notable contingent of South Koreans ‘Coalition of the Willing’ seemed, in practice, Rudd has indicated its intention to remove stationed in Iraqi Kurdistan and a to be nothing more than an Anglo-Saxon all remaining Australian armed forces Mongolian infantry company supporting the alliance left wanting of serious global personnel from Iraq. Mr. Rudd’s ardent anti- Polish-led division out of Diwaniyah. The support. However, in fairness, at the war stance contributed to a landslide victory 933-man strong ‘Zaytun Division’ from beginning of 2004, the newly constituted at the recent general election and reflected South Korea is a significant contribution Multi National Force in Iraq (MNF-I) was popular discontent at Australia’s continued from a country that generally shies away comprised of relatively large deployments of military commitment to the MNF-I. Mr. from international engagement. However Dutch, Georgian, Italian, Japanese, South Rudd has stated that the remaining 900 the division it is strictly confined to Korean, Spanish and Ukrainian troops as Australian Defence Force personnel should reconstruction projects and Seoul has flatly well as a whole host of smaller contributions be withdrawn by the end of 2008. refused to consider expanding its role to from some 30 other countries. Poland’s government also wants include combat. The majority of these military personnel complete disengagement by the end of 2008 Outside the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi from the smaller contingents were engaged as well. Its command of the Multi National Freedom there are international forces in non-combat activities such as manning Division-Central South is facing scrutiny by participating in the NATO training mission check-points, organizing reconstruction and the recently elected Prime Minister Donald for the Iraqi police force and UNAMI. The distributing aid. But, the rise of the Tusk, who believes that the remaining 900 former draws on personnel from 16 insurgency led many of the risk-averse Poles in Iraq (down from 2,500 previously) countries but has comparably few numbers members of the MNF-I to reconsider their should be brought home as soon as possible. of boots on the ground, with the entire presence in the country, particularly as few However, this waning commitment of mission consisting of no more than 250 European politicians seemed willing to coalition members to the counter-insurgency military instructors and support staff. sacrifice their soldiers in the name of a and reconstruction effort is not wholesale. A UNAMI has around 300 employees based deeply unpopular cause. number of countries, particularly from the inside Iraq and another 300 in supporting It was the terrorist attacks of March 11th former Soviet Bloc, have retained and in roles at various locations throughout the 2004 in Madrid that precipitated the largest some cases increased their numbers in Iraq. Middle East, but the majority of these are drawdown in non-U.S. service personnel Georgia, for example, has a quarter of locally employed, civilian staff. from Iraq. These al-Qaeda inspired attacks its army deployed to Wasit province The U.S.-led coalition is far from an were seen by many as a direct result of conducting operations along the Iranian alliance of equals. Despite the somewhat involvement in the war and consequently a border and also providing security at several diverse representation of nation-states, the wave of popular disenchantment forced Forward Operating Bases (FOBs). Georgian numbers of non-U.S. service personnel some governments to reconsider their contingents have also been involved in the involved are negligible. Although the military commitments to the MNF-I. protection of the United Nations Assistance staunchest allies of the U.S. have proven Thus, between mid-2004 and 2006 Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) in Baghdad. fairly resilient in their ‘staying power’ very several large contributors, including Italy, Similarly, Romania has around 400 few contributors have allowed their troops to Japan, the Netherlands and Spain all troops in southern Iraq engaging in engage in high-intensity operations, which withdrew their contingents and by December reconnaissance missions and prisoner reflects global governmental hesitation 2007 only 7 percent of the MNF-I was drawn interrogation, whilst its neighbor and NATO about taking casualties in Iraq. The MNF-I from non-U.S. sources. Those that did not ally, Bulgaria, has a company of soldiers reached its peak in early 2004 but since this completely extract their forces initiated a guarding facilities in Ashraf City and point has been in terminal decline and only process of phased withdrawal, meaning that running the Temporary Interview and the persistent attention of U.S. diplomats even previously enthusiastic members of the Protection facility at the same location. have prevented its complete collapse. coalition, such as the Australia, Poland and Although deploying significantly smaller the U.K., significantly reduced their military numbers, both Macedonia and Albania footprints. maintain deployments that are sizable E-mail [email protected] The author is a Research Associate at IPOA. undertakings considering their more limited

19 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 The Future of Iraq: The International Perspective.

B ETHELHEM KETSELA MOULAT AND SHAWN LEE RATHGEBER Uniting Behind the United Nations in Iraq Iraq’s Future May Require the UN to Take a Greater Role in Reconstruction

OR many years now, the role of the Mello, then-Secretary General Kofi Annan are meant to enhance local and national United Nations in Iraq has been withdrew almost all UN personnel from Iraq ownership of all ongoing relief and F controversial. In the 1990s, the UN after reviewing the security situation. reconstruction strategies, giving thus was the forum through which the The UN got involved in Iraq once again opportunity for the Iraqi people as opposed devastating regime of sanctions was imposed in 2004 following Security Council to being strategies dictated from above with on the Saddam Hussein dictatorship. A Resolution 1546, which introduced the two little concern for the needs of beneficiaries. result of this program was the heavily main areas of concern in Iraq that the Other important UNDP-led criticized Oil-For-Food Program in 1996. United Nations has had since that time. The humanitarian initiatives include those Similarly, it is also arguable that the UN first is granting authorization for the pertaining to the reconstruction of essential resolutions authorizing the disarming of Iraq Multinational Force Iraq (MNF-I) to operate humanitarian infrastructure and restoration within the country. This was in view of of basic services. These include projects the fact that Iraq now had a sovereign concerning water and sanitation, government and at the request of the reconstruction of hospitals and community then Iraqi Prime Minister Dr. Ayad markets and the installation of electricity Allawi. The authorization has generators and transmission equipment. subsequently been reviewed and Similarly, in the area of transportation renewed on a yearly basis. The second the UNDP has been providing support in the is the operation of United Nations development of ports, waterways missions in Iraq, Jordan, and Kuwait, management practices and the rehabilitation under the auspices of the UNAMI. of the national civil aviation infrastructure. Five years have passed since the Moreover, the UNDP has been engaged in an beginning of the invasion and clearly effort to remove UXOs (Unexploded the tables have turned as it is now more Ordnance) which obstruct safe commute as evident than ever before that the UN well as reconstruction work throughout Iraq. and the U.S. are working side by side in On the more sensitive issue of the The memorial service for Sergio Vieira de Mello in Baghdad. an effort to establish a stable, peaceful, political role of the UN, past major PHOTO: TIMOTHY SOPP/UN secular and democratic Iraqi state. achievements include the latter’s The UN has two primary roles in contribution to the formation of the first provided the legitimization for the Anglo- Iraq—humanitarian and political. With functional and democratically-elected Iraqi American coalition that invaded the country respect to its humanitarian role, which is parliament in 40 years and its role in the in 2003, although the Security Council arguably less controversial than the political drafting of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. The vetoed a formal authorization of the war. one, the UN has been providing support to UN has also helped in the implementation of At the outset of the invasion the the government of Iraq in delivering basic the two rounds of general election and a relationship between the UN and the United social services through its cluster system national referendum on the Constitution. States was strained, with no explicit UN approach, which comprises of some 16 UN Furthermore, UNAMI has provided support for the invasion. Yet the invasion agencies, funds and programs specialized in assistance in the planning process of the took place regardless, leaving many critics of the various sectors to be rebuilt. These legislative agenda of the Independent High the UN to triumphantly claim that its sectors include agriculture and food security, Electoral Commission and has been able to legitimate and credible role as an education, health and nutrition, refugees observe the selection of the nine Commis- international body capable of enforcing and IDPs, infrastructure, governance and sioners by the Council of Representatives. collective security, even when such security support for the electoral process. However, the support of the UN and the is breached by the world’s superpowers, had Within the framework of the cluster U.S. in the establishment of an Iraqi elected been severely tarnished. approach aforementioned, the United government has not been able to strengthen Despite initial differences of opinion Nations Development Programme (UNDP) the government’s legitimacy as resistance between the invading coalition and the UN, and the United Nations High Commissioner continues to pose security problems from it was not long before the latter was to be for Refugees (UNHCR) are two of the most within, ultimately hindering the successful active within war torn Iraq: on August 14, actively involved UN agencies in the implementation of current and future 2003 the Security Council of the United reconstruction and development work that is humanitarian assistance initiatives. Nations passed resolution 1500 to establish being undertaken in Iraq. It is clear that a long-lasting peace in the United Nations Assistance Mission for Among the extensive number of current Iraq will only be achieved through a well Iraq (UNAMI), which entailed the delivery of projects is the Iraqis Rebuilding Iraq negotiated and inclusive political settlement. humanitarian aid and the engagement in Programme through which the UNDP, in Therefore, it is plausible to argue that there institution building and reconstruction. close collaboration with the Iraqi is scope for the UN to play a significant However, when the UN compound in Government and the International peace brokering role in such a political Baghdad was struck by a massive truck Organization of Migration, is assisting the settlement process; however, this will be bomb on August 19, killing 22 UN staff process of identification and placement of possible only if the UN is allowed to take the including the mission chief Sergio Vieira de qualified expatriate professionals in the Iraqi lead as a neutral body and if it then engages labor market so as to accelerate the ongoing with all key actors. Ultimately, if this E-mail [email protected]. rehabilitation efforts of the Iraqi economy. happens, the humanitarian initiatives of the Bethelhem Moulat is a Research Associate at IPOA. This particular initiative is exemplary of the UN will bear even more fruitful future E-mail [email protected]. UN’s intention of promoting strategies which outcomes than now. Shawn Rathgeber is a Research Associate at IPOA. 20 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Government Affairs.

M ELINDA BAKER Military Law on Trial The First Civilian Contractor to be Prosecuted Under UCMJ Since Vietnam

HE U.S. Department of Defense memo. The memo asserted UCMJ legal accountability for contractors in recently released a memo directing jurisdiction over Defense Department contingency operations poses a major T commanders to apply Uniform Code civilian employees and contractors in problem for all stakeholders. The possibility of Military Justice (UCMJ) jurisdiction in contingency operations in situations where that the application of military law to certain circumstances involving civilians, offenses have not been pursued by the civilians will be struck down in the future, as and currently the first civilian contractor is Department of Justice or action was still it was decades ago, is very real. The DFAR being prosecuted under military law since pending. It was perhaps the first attempt, rules continue to emphasize that contractors the Vietnam War. The Departments of albeit a vague a one, to reinforce the changes are not part of the armed services, do not Defense and State, and USAID have been made to the UCMJ in October 2006 that carry out combat missions, are subject to the working toward a Memorandum of allowed for UCMJ jurisdiction over persons rules on the use of force rather the military Understanding to develop improved uniform accompanying U.S. armed forces in both rules of engagement, and bear the risk of standards and requirements for contractors. declared war and contingency operations. determining which set of laws take Congress continues to call for hearings on It is unclear whether in publishing this precedence, including those of the host contractor oversight and accountability, yet memo, Defense fully anticipated the country. Given these continued designations, the MEJA Expansion Act continues to potential outcomes that would arise. With it is difficult to determine whether the remain stuck in the Senate. what was seemingly a balanced attempt to October 2006 UCMJ amendments will be Looking at the overall report card, the take action without stepping on the authority able to hold-up given the traditional civil- Department of Defense, in coordination with of U.S. federal jurisdiction, myriad legal and military legal distinction. State and USAID, is trying to take specific practical challenges were unleashed when In the face of an absent Department of initiatives to improve its acquisition less than a month later the first active Justice, striking down military jurisdiction procedures and clarify the role and standing prosecution of a civilian contractor in Iraq would continue to perpetuate the of its contractors. In his testimony to the occurred. Alaa Mohammad Ali, a dual unacceptable lack of legal accountability that Senate Armed Services Committee in early Canadian-Iraqi citizen who served as a the U.S. has been struggling with for the past April, Jack Bell, the Deputy Under-Secretary translator for the U.S. Army, was accused of several years. On the other hand, using the of Defense for Logistics and Materiel stabbing another contractor on a U.S. base in military justice system to investigate every Readiness, stated that the Memorandum of Iraq. Should this case go to trial in a military allegation of wrongdoing is at best burden- Understanding and other inter-agency court, it will both once again raise the some on a practical level. At worst, the U.S. regulations mandated by Sections 861 and controversial issue of prosecuting civilians military is setting a dangerous precedent in 862 of the National Defense Authorization under military law and bring up questions of having a second-country military play judge Act (NDAA) FY08 should be executed by the whether the military is prepared and to a third-country national when a host- July 1, 2008 deadline. However, efforts at equipped to handle the sheer number of country’s legal system is unavailable. In Iraq, improvement might prove to be long and potential cases that this precedent could set. CPA Order 17, which currently provides non- painful. Recent embarrassments such as a Mr. Ali’s non-American citizenship only adds Iraqi contractors immunity from Iraqi law, fraudulent ammunitions contract and the another layer to this already complex case. will run out at the end of 2008. With recent Defense Procurement Policy Report Looking to Congress, clarification and resentment from Iraqi officials, the U.S.’s citing the Army’s failure on testing and guidance do not appear to be in sight as long inability to establish a legal solution that approval of first articles for over half of its as the Presidential election dominates the falls in line with the values of its legal system body armor contracts no doubt reveal this. scene. There has certainly been no shortage could come back to haunt it in the future. Moreover, attempts to clarify of congressional hearings by the various U.S. legislators must recognize that the procedures and jurisdiction for handling government oversight, foreign relations, and use of contractors in contingency operations, misconduct by contractors in contingency armed services committees and particularly private security contractors, is a operations have resulted in an even more subcommittees over the past few months real and complex situation that requires confounding picture. The Department of during which federal agencies are chastised proactive solutions. Passing effective MEJA Justice has been repeatedly criticized for its for their poor acquisition and oversight legislation can provide the Justice absence in pursuing criminal cases under the processes. However, it is not enough for Department with FBI investigative resources jurisdiction given to it by the current Congress to criticize and then pass the buck. and required reporting mandates that can Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act Partisan politics threaten necessary first help it to become the necessary legal outlet (MEJA) passed in 2000. Testifying before steps such as passing the MEJA Expansion that should be handling these cases in the Congress in early April, the Deputy Assistant Act or creating the Commission on Wartime first place. On the front side, Congress needs Attorney General for the Department of Contracting that was mandated in the NDAA to push for better regulations that help weed Justice Criminal Division divulged (without FY08. The rule of construction added to the out unqualified contractors before problems providing the number of total referrals it had MEJA Expansion bill passed by the House arise. If the U.S. government and military received) that only twelve federal that exempts intelligence activities cannot come up with a more closely indictments under MEJA have occurred challenges both its ability to be passed in the integrated approach to acquisition, since it was originally passed. Senate and the bill’s potential effectiveness if oversight, and accountability, problems will In the face of the complacency of the it were to be passed. As for the Commission, continue to slip through the cracks and the Department of Justice and the increasing with two appointees made by the President, blame game will continue indefinitely. frustration and confusion of troops on the it is doubtful if any action will be taken on ground who often work alongside security that front prior to the November election. contractors, it is no surprise that the The lack of direction in developing a Email [email protected] Pentagon came forward with its March 10th unified strategy for regulating and ensuring The author is a Research Associate at IPOA.

21 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Q&A.

M ICHAEL SHANK Poppy, Poverty and the Taliban Afghanistan’s Ambassador to the U.S., Said Tayeb Jawad

Michael Shank interviewed Afghanistan’s roads, making sure that the legitimate crop the problem is one of remoteness and lack of Ambassador to the US on March 6, 2008, gets to the market. infrastructure. The government and police regarding Afghanistan’s poppy and poverty The fourth component is building cannot be there. It’s a huge province with problems, relations with Pakistan, U.S. institutions, police, judicial system, the very limited roads. Sometimes it takes three presidential candidates’ policies vis-à-vis courts, and others. The fifth component is days to travel from one district to another Afghanistan, Paddy Ashdown, and talks reducing demand through regional district. So they’re taking advantage of that with the Taliban. cooperation. As long as there is demand, lack of infrastructure, lack of civility. somebody will grow them. And as long as But in the south, Helmand has been the JIPO: What do you make of the United countries around Afghanistan do not hotbed of Taliban operations. That’s where States’ new tack in dealing with poppy in cooperate on eliminating trafficking and we have the most poppy. And the reasons Afghanistan – that of planting processing, that problem will continue. So are manifold. First is, of course, where there pomegranate instead of spraying crops? there has to be five pillars. Eradication is one is a lack of security, psychologically, the What’s your assessment regarding the most pillar but this is only one-fifth of the fight. farmers will grow poppy because it only effective way of addressing the opium JIPO: Do you feel that the takes three months to grow. You’re not going problem? Do you see promise in providing international community is predominantly to invest in building your orchards or farmers with alternative crops? focused only on this one aspect? vineyards if there’s no road, no stability, and Ambassador Jawad: First we have to Ambassador Jawad: Eradication, no sense of tomorrow. So you grow be very clear that there is no one solution for yes. That’s why there hasn’t been that much something quick, you need the money then. a very complicated problem such a poppy. progress. Of course the Taliban are pushing them. There is no silver bullet to kill this beast. JIPO: In light of the recent United They’re giving them money. They come in Over-emphasis has been made, actually a lot Nations report, which focused on the the winter and they lend money to the over the past five years, on eradication, all demand for opium throughout the world, do farmers with interest that goes up to 50-60 types of eradication, manual or aerial you think there is insufficient attention paid percent up to 100 percent. The only way to spraying or others, which is important but to the demand side of Afghanistan’s pay it back is by growing poppy. They will only aspect of fighting narcotics. It’s one- narcotics problem? not be able to pay by growing potato or fifth of the strategy. Ambassador Jawad: Again, as much wheat. That strategy must have five pillars. as reducing the demand is a long term Definitely there is a strong linkage First is eradication. The second is project, as much as the regional cooperation between these. In the areas where we have a interdiction, going after the traffickers. The is a long term project, as much as stronger presence of the Taliban and guys who are making most of the money are development and building infrastructure is a operation of the terrorists, then the military not the farmers it’s the trafficker and the long term project, fighting narcotics is a long and the police is not going to do anything processor. It’s important to enhance the term project. It takes from five to ten years. about poppy. interdiction capabilities of both the But it takes a comprehensive approach by all JIPO: You’ve talked a lot about the international community and the Afghan parties. We are not going to succeed on that need to build institutions in Afghanistan. Is government. if we’re going to try one aspect, just there a role for the U.S. here despite the fact The third is alternative livelihood. interdiction or just eradication. We have to that U.S. aid to Afghanistan has been Again, not alternative crops: logically, have all of them. primarily military, with reconstruction aid economically, socially it doesn’t make sense We have to have an incentive for the totaling only 10 percent of U.S. assistance? to say “now don’t grow poppy, instead grow farmer to do something else. But you have to Ambassador Jawad: Yes, but more pomegranate or grape.” It’s not going to have a strong enforcement capability, which funds should go specifically towards capacity work. If you’re looking for alternative comes from interdiction, institution building building of the government, trade and livelihood that means that you’re going to and eradication. Eradication just by itself private sector capabilities. That capacity have to introduce a number of crops pushes the farmers into the hands of the building consists of two parts. One is depending on the region. It could be rose for terrorists. training, and the transfer of skills; training rosewater, it could be sunflower, or it could JIPO: Focusing in on Helmand the judges, the prosecutors, the traders, the be cotton or a number of other products. But Province, with its social services and shop keepers, to be able to integrate into this equally important if you’re going to succeed infrastructure remaining underdeveloped — global market, by having the pomegranate on that you have to have facilities to process only two hospitals serving a population of from Helmand to reach Dubai. That requires this. A pomegranate, in order to create value, over 800,000, for example — what are the a better degree of understanding of how to must be converted into pomegranate juice linkages between poverty, lack of package it, how to get it to an airline, how to and exported outside. Or grape [converted] infrastructure, and the fact that Helmand get it to Dubai. So those are all important into a more valuable product. So the third Province produces much of Afghanistan’s steps that need to be taken in training and aspect is an alternative livelihood and that opium and maintains the strongest transfer of skills. includes an alternative crop, but the insurgency? The other part is to provide better alternative crop is just one part of the Ambassador Jawad: Not only in funding for the government to pay better to alternative livelihood. The real task is Helmand but in every province where we keep the civil servant, the teacher, and development, infrastructure, building the have most of the security challenges, that’s others to continue to work for the exactly where we have most of the poppy. government. Pay forty dollars to the teacher, E-mail [email protected] One exception is Badakhshan. In while the economy grows at a much faster The interviewer is the government relations adviser Badakhshan, in northern Afghanistan, we rate, and the teacher will leave the job and at George Mason University’s Institute for Conflict don’t have a lot of security problems. There Analysis and Resolution. CONTINUED NEXT PAGE 22 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Q&A.

different way. FROM PREVIOUS PAGE We are grateful that the Democrats are become a taxi driver or something else indicating that they will do more for because he can make a lot more money. If Afghanistan. Equally important, the you don’t pay adequately you don’t get administration is about to increase their qualified people. Particularly when the support for the country. What is important economy is picking up, if their salaries stay for us is for U.S. policymakers to see and the same, instead of building capacity the understand that stability in Afghanistan government is bleeding capacity. means stability in the region and also JIPO: Do you think this message is security in the United States. making its way to the U.S.? JIPO: Do you have any thoughts on Ambassador Jawad: To a certain how the new coalition government in degree, yes, specifically there is a lot more Pakistan will impact Pak-Afghan relations? emphasis on capacity-building but a lot of Ambassador Jawad: I think it’s a the capacity building is now based on step forward. We always in the past argued sending consultants and getting reports. for the strengthening of civic organizations, This is not the way to do it. You really have civil rule in Pakistan. We are happy for the to create this capacity among the Afghans. fact that the election was fair and The consultant comes in, he is charging transparent. In the long run, what we expect something like $10,000 - $40,000 a week, from the Pakistan government is to fight and then they write a report and they take it extremism in a sincere way. And to recognize back on their laptops. You really have to that extremism is a threat for Pakistan, for work with the ministries, the institutions Afghanistan and for the world. Any that lack this capacity, not create parallel government that is based on that, we offer structures, an advisory board, a panel or a our support, our friendship. commission combined of Afghans and JIPO: How do you see the Afghan-Pak Ambassador Said Tayeb Jawad. foreigners, that is not effective. You really border issue being dealt with? PHOTO: EMBASSY OF AFGHANISTAN have to invest that money and those Ambassador Jawad: The border is resources in the ministries and in the office not an issue. The same, weak capacity that way he operated in the past. Getting back to of the governor or district chief at the local exists in patrolling the Pakistani border, in your question on pomegranate, you’re not level too to create that capacity. fact a much weaker capacity exists along the going to resolve the problem of Afghan The PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Iranian border, the border with Uzbekistan, narcotics by pomegranate. You’re not going Teams) can play an important role of not Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. Why is no one to resolve the problem of coordination at the only digging wells or building a clinic but coming from there? So the problem is not international level with Paddy Ashdown. also teaching the Governor or his staff how the border. The problem is what’s happening You’re not going to have coordination if to open an email or write an email. If there on the other side of the border. you’re not ready to be coordinated. are traders there locally, bring them in and You have almost no one at the Canadian These different countries, with different teach them the basics of how to come up border; most people are coming from degrees of commitment and different with a balance sheet. [Teach them the] Mexico. It’s not the border or how many mandates, they will not change overnight basics on the marketing and packaging— people you have at the border with Mexico or and say tell us Lord Ashdown what should simple things that could be very beneficial Canada; it’s what’s happening on the other we do? Now the gentleman from Norway will for them. side, poverty and many other things that are take his place. I’m sure that he’ll try his best. Capacity-building is really a transfer of driving people from Mexico into the United But this is not a key that you just turn skills, at every level. That transfer of skills States. That force is not in Canada. around and say we have appointed this doesn’t mean bringing them here to get an It’s not the border. It’s not how many person. No, there is going to be a lot of hard MBA, though this is needed also at a big walls you build on the border. It’s what’s work for us, for the international different level, but even a two-day course is happening on the other side. You can build community. effective at the district level. Have a course walls but it’s not going to help. You have to JIPO: There has been a lot of debate for the police officers on respecting human go to the source. within Kabul and within the international rights. This is all capacity-building. JIPO: Why was Afghanistan not community as to whether or not talks with Equally important, make more funding interested in having Paddy Ashdown serve the Taliban should take place. Do you think available to the government to pay better. as the UN special envoy? reconciliation with the Taliban will When they pay better, they recruit more Ambassador Jawad: Coordination in ultimately need to have them at the table? qualified people. When they don’t pay, Afghanistan needs to take place at three Ambassador Jawad: Yes. There are nobody shows up, or they are unqualified. levels: First, among the international different degrees of engagement right now. JIPO: Do you see any of the three U.S. partners; Second, among the international President Karzai, the government of Presidential candidates—Obama, Clinton, partners and the government of Afghanistan Afghanistan, our international friends now or McCain—shaping a new effective policy at the national and local level. understand more and more why we are vis-à-vis Afghanistan? Paddy Ashdown played a role in coming from that position and have shown Ambassador Jawad: Fortunately bringing the international players together. willingness. We will talk with the Taliban. everyone — the Congress, the But it’s equally important that the Provided they respect the Afghan Administration, media, the think-tanks — coordinator enhance the coordination constitution. The Afghan constitution is a understands the magnitude of the problem. between the international community and joint achievement of the Afghan people and There’s a better degree of willingness to the Afghan government. That will happen the international community that came to grasp that yes we are facing a serious only if the international community assist Afghanistan. Underneath that challenge here. And what we have done has considers Afghan important. Therefore, framework, we have indicated our been effective is certain aspects and in other based on his experiences, and based upon willingness to talk with the Taliban. areas we have to do it in a better way, a what we heard, there was concern about the BACKGROUND PHOTO: SGT. JIM WILT /U.S. ARMY

23 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Zimbabwe’s “Election” Crisis.

DR. NEL MARAIS Zimbabwe: Stability Under Threat Political Consensus is Required to Prevent a Potential Military Coup or Civil War

CCORDING to the final results of the the accommodation of other ZANU-PF At least two hardliners are reportedly willing March 29 elections for the lower moderates – a request that might not be to stage a coup: Air Force Marshal Perence A house of Parliament in Zimbabwe, acceptable to many within the MDC. Shiri, who is closely associated with the the opposition Movement for Democratic The MDC has now established itself as a Matabeleland massacre of the 1980s, and the Change (MDC) won 99 seats, the ruling national party, with strong support in both Defence Force Commander, General ZANU-PF party obtained 97 seats and a rural and urban areas. As such, it will be Constantine Chiwenga. breakaway MDC faction got 10 seats. One extremely difficult for ZANU-PF to defeat Air Marshal Perence Shiri attained independent candidate won a seat. Three by- the opposition in free and fair elections, notoriety after the transfer of power to black elections will have to take place. should this take place within weeks. Zimbabwe in 1980. President Mugabe made The MDC and ZANU-PF each won 30 Notwithstanding earlier fears, the his trusted friend commander of a highly seats in the Senate. The presidential election elections were relatively free and fair and sensitive army unit called the Fifth Brigade. results have not yet been announced, little evidence exits of vote rigging. Shiri was given the task of suppressing although reliable sources say MDC leader According to local experts, the ruling party dissidents among Zimbabwe's minority seriously underestimated support for the Ndebele tribe. He went about this with MDC, also in rural areas. As a result, less gusto, commanding a unit which murdered intimidation and vote buying took place than at least 8,000 people and tortured or during previous elections and this abducted tens of thousands more between contributed to the opposition’s strong 1983 and 1986, making him one of the most showing during the March 2008 elections. feared men in Zimbabwe. He reportedly Technically, a second round of voting fears that a new government will institute might be required to elect a new president, legal proceedings against him. as the constitution requires an absolute But Shiri and Chiwenga have reportedly majority - something Tsvangirai might have met opposition from Army Commander missed by a small percentage. But the MDC Philip Sibanda, Police Commissioner is not keen on a run-off, as they expect the Augustine Chihuri, the Chief of the levels of intimidation and political violence Zimbabwe Central Intelligence Organisation, to increase dramatically during such a retired major-general Happyton Bonyongwe; campaign period. However, if the election is and the Director of Prisons, retired brigadier anything close to free and fair, Tsvangirai Paradzai Zimondi, who feared the worst in should emerge the victor – probably with at the event of a military clampdown. Zimbabweans queue for bread in Harare. least 60 percent of the vote. It is understood that Shiri and PHOTO: U.S. EMBASSY HARARE For now, one of the most immediate Chiwenga feared a future government threats to stability is the fact that some without a ZANU-PF component. To allay Morgan Tsvangirai received 50.3 percent, senior commanders in the security forces their fears, Simba Makoni has reportedly President Robert Mugabe got 43.7 percent remain unwilling to accept a complete been mentioned as the man who could fill and Simba Makoni, former ZANU-PF, handover of power to the MDC. The role of that void, “in a very senior position and managed to bag six percent of the vote. retired General Solomon Mujuru is vital to possibly as prime minister,” a role abolished President Mugabe and his ruling party ensure that the military refrains from direct when Mugabe was elected president in 1987. have prevented the announcement of the intervention. He is a ZANU-PF stalwart and There are three main short term presidential election results. In this regard former chief of the defense force, but also possibilities: their strategy seems to be to: opposed to President Mugabe’s continued • Tsvangirai and the MDC will be declared • Ensure a second round of voting during rule. As such, he is in the best position to the victors and Zimbabwe’s economic which time intimidation and even election convince his former colleagues not to reconstruction could begin. fraud will be used, also in the absence of intervene in current political impasse. • Mugabe and ZANU-PF will either not many of the original elections observers. The next few weeks will remain tense accept the results, therefore remaining in • Challenging the validity of parliamentary and the MDC will have to ensure that it can power, or will manipulate the electoral results (wards) in order to ensure a convince ZANU-PF leaders and security process to ensure at least a partial victory. recount or numerous by-elections. force commanders that a new government This will lead to the complete collapse of will respect the constitution. Any indications • If everything else fails, to bring the the economy, increased political violence of a program of retribution could lead to a and possibly to a military intervention, elections into dispute and then to insist on bloody coup attempt. new elections. If this is prevented the facilitated by General Mujuru in order to MDC supporters will also have to be rid ZANU-PF of Mugabe. ruling elite might well declare a state of controlled and prevented from attacks aimed emergency or execute a “silent coup.” at hard-line ZANU-PF elements. Victory • International and regional efforts could Although the main faction of the MDC celebrations can easily turn into anarchy and still lead to some kind of political has won the most seats in parliament, it will violent confrontations. Under the present compromise, ensuring an interim power- still need a coalition with Simba Makoni and circumstances, the reaction of local security sharing agreement, as well as assurances the smaller MDC faction to ensure an force structures, including the riot police, is that Mugabe and senior ZANU-PF leaders outright majority. Makoni might insist on difficult to predict. will not be charged with human rights violations or economic crimes. This will The author is a senior research consultant with Behind-the-scenes talks have been taking place to try and avert a military coup. ensure neither immediate political Executive Research Associates, a South African stability nor long term economic recovery. based business and risk advisory company. 24 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Columnists.

A MBASSADOR HERMAN COHEN (RET.) Just When Things Couldn’t Get Worse... Zimbabwe Held an Election. But Winner or Loser, Mugabe’s Staying.

VERY time Zimbabwe appears to vanguard party. Indeed, it was more spread between local and foreign currencies. have hit rock bottom in its political, important than the government. All major Scarce foreign currency is sold off to party E economic and social disintegration, policy decisions were made in the ZANU- cronies at low fixed exchange rates, while the something new arises to bring greater PF’s impressive party headquarters in general population starves. At the same suffering to the embattled population. downtown Harare prior to government time, the seized commercial agricultural The most recent tragedy was caused by action as a rubber stamp. According to farms are producing low value and low the presidential and parliamentary elections doctrine, the vanguard party could not be quantity subsistence crops instead of the of March 2008. An honest count gave the allowed to lose power. As a former Vice- former high value export crops. opposition MDC party a majority in President of Zimbabwe said in 2002, “if the The bottom line is that Zimbabwe is Parliament, the first time the opposition has party nominates a baboon to run for suffering from a collapsed economy and is a won since the country’s transition to black President, the people will obey and vote for growing police state. Is it moving toward a majority rule in 1980. But in the presidential the baboon.” In short, Zimbabwe was failure or collapse of the state? This is not election, the government prohibited the governed on the Soviet model, with a veneer likely in the near future because, as in announcement of the results, indicating that of fake free elections. Burma, there is enough export revenue from the MDC candidate had either won, or had With an election defeat looming during remaining mineral exports to keep the police forced ruling President Robert Mugabe into the period 2000-2002, Mugabe needed to and military loyal, and to enrich the party a run-off election. Three weeks later, the take dramatic action to divert popular hierarchy. Even if he wanted to, Mugabe government indicated that a run-off would opinion. His actions led to a devastating could not give up power and allow the take place, even though the final vote count blow to Zimbabwe’s economy, and turned opposition to win a free election because so was still not released. the country into a militarized state very many thousands of ZANU-PF bureaucrats The government’s announcement of a similar to Burma or North Korea. Mugabe’s would lose their only source of livelihood. run-off election was followed by a wave of dramatic actions were designed to stir up Neighboring countries are also suffering brutal repression of opposition parties, the xenophobic nationalism and anti-white because the large influx of refugees from independent press, and villages that failed to racism in an effort to sublimate growing anti Zimbabwe is putting enormous pressure on give President Mugabe a victory on the first -government feeling. local economies and resources. Regardless, round. It was clear that Mugabe and his First, he ordered the seizure, without the regional Southern African Development ZANU-PF party were determined to rig the compensation, of the large commercial Community (SADC) of which Zimbabwe is a run-off election, using intimidation, violence farms owned by white Zimbabweans. founding member, is unable to apply and rigging or whatever else was necessary Mugabe said that the British government pressure on Mugabe because South Africa’s to stay in power. was responsible for paying compensation president Thabo Mbeki, a fellow Marxist- When President Mugabe saw his because the best agricultural lands were Leninist, will not allow collective action. popular support starting to dwindle in 2002, seized by whites during the time of British One positive sign is that NGOs and he decided to do whatever was necessary to colonialism. The confiscated farms were trade unions in South Africa are beginning to keep himself and his party in power. He had redistributed to high party officials and their raise their voices against Mugabe. During won elections easily between 1980 and 2000 families. April, labor unions in South Africa managed because Zimbabwe was relatively prosperous Second, Mugabe used the police to to block a Chinese arms shipment destined with strong commercial agricultural export engage in thuggish actions against for Zimbabwe from being unloaded in the earnings from tobacco and corn. In addition, opposition politicians, privately owned port of Durban, preventing onward land there were substantial revenues from the newspapers, and rural villages that had delivery to Zimbabwe. mining of platinum, chrome and copper. dared to vote for the opposition. The latter The only hope right now is that Towards the end of the 1990s, there was had their food rations cut off in times of Mugabe’s advanced age of 85 will result in growing discontent with unemployment drought. He also got rid of high court judges his stepping down in the near future due to caused by a high percentage of high school that dared to be independent. incapacity. This could lead to a split in the graduates and very little new foreign The net results of Mugabe’s actions were ZANU-PF party, and possibly a military investment. Secondary school graduates an almost total loss of agricultural export coup. Meanwhile, the suffering of the could not find jobs. An opposition political revenue, a severe shortage of foreign Zimbabwe people continues to increase party, the MDC, started to get traction in exchange to pay for vital industrial and exponentially. Shame on South African elections, winning the two big cities, Harare agricultural inputs, and a massive outflow of President Mbeki for averting his eyes and for and Bulawayo. citizens to South Africa and Botswana his declaration that “there is no crisis in Mugabe’s problem was caused by his seeking employment and food. As of the Zimbabwe.” He would say that because the Marxist-Leninist political philosophy. The beginning of 2008, Zimbabwe has lost about “vanguard” Marxist-Leninist party remains private sector, especially large multinational one-third of its population, four million in power. For Marxist-Leninists like Mbeki, corporations, were suspect, and had to be people. In addition, the loss of revenues that is what counts. discouraged, except for those Zimbabwe had caused the government to print money, inherited from the days of white minority resulting in massive inflation running at the rule. Without new investment, and with a rate of 100,000 percent per month. Email Amb. Herman Cohen at [email protected] growing population, unemployment rose. As in Burma, high ranking military and The author is a former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, and is President of Cohen & On the political side, the ZANU-PF police, as well as leading ZANU-PF officials, Woods International. party designated itself as a Marxist-Leninist have enriched themselves by playing the

25 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Columnists.

J. J. MESSNER Airbus Versus Boeing Should Not be the Debate Rather than Buying, How About Contracting Air-to-Air Refueling Services?

T could become the biggest defense rather on the issue of alternatives. In 2004, awaiting their next refueling mission which contract in history — to the winner goes the Defense Department’s attempts at could be days or weeks away. I the spoils of a US$40 billion contract leasing tankers (to the tune of US$20 Indeed, Britain’s Royal Air Force (RAF) that could potentially swell over ensuing billion) was derailed by a corruption scandal is already beginning to follow a years to US$100 billion. After that saw Boeing’s chief executive step down similar model under a (albeit much anticipation, the Pentagon and two other executives trade their offices controversial) system of private announced last month that the for jail cells. finance initiatives, where the winner of the contract to supply a government rents infrastructure fleet of brand new air-to-air from private companies. The RAF’s refueling tanker aircraft would not be £13 billion program calls for private the U.S. plane-maker Boeing, but companies (in this rather its European rival, Airbus. case a consortium Well, European rival isn’t entirely known collectively as accurate. After all, Airbus’ parent company, AirTanker) to acquire, maintain the European Aeronautic Defense and Space and deploy air-to-air Company (EADS), engaged in a joint refueling tankers for the venture partnership on this contract with Royal Air Force on American defense giant Northrop Grumman. Nevertheless, there has been much hand-wringing by various politicians over a perceived loss of jobs overseas. But all is not quite what it seems. Although 40 demand. Audit assessments by the British percent of the A330 tanker is built Nevertheless, government leading up to the deal confirmed outside of the U.S., so too is 15 there is a third option, namely that private companies were able to percent of the 767. So, the Boeing contracting out the service of air-to-air maintain the aircraft and stand at a greater product is not exactly 100 percent baseball refueling. Indeed, this service already exists. level of readiness than would be possible by and apple pie. The EADS-Northrop One company, Omega Aerial Refueling the RAF itself. Grumman partnership also intends on Services, already provides contract refueling This would not be a huge stretch for the building a factory in the U.S., heralding the services to the U.S. Navy under a program Air Force. After all, an air-to-air refueling creation of 25,000 new American jobs. administered by NAVAIR SYSCOM PMA- tanker is not exactly a sensitive piece of But the politics of “they took our jobs” 207.5. Each tanker’s use is funded on a flying technology. The air-to-air refueling aside, it seems that the Pentagon’s decision hours basis, and the fuel is purchased technology itself has been around for nearly wasn’t particularly difficult from an objective separately on government credit card, just half a century, and the frames on which it point of view. The EADS-Northrop like any other government or military fuel flies around are routinely flying for the likes Grumman model, a converted Airbus A330 purchase. Omega currently has two KC-135 of Air France or US Airways. So, civilian airliner, could carry more fuel and offer (converted Boeing 707) tankers and one operation, or even further, civilian-military more flexibility (in terms of cargo, troop- KDC-10 (converted Douglas DC-10) tanker, mixed-use is not really a “bridge to far.” carrying and airlift capabilities) than used on demand by the Navy and Marine Furthermore, the military is already happy Boeing’s modified 767. And, EADS-Northrop Corps. This fleet (and the fleets of any other to use the private sector for troop transport Grumman could supply 49 of the tankers by private firm that decided to enter the through the Air Mobility Command. If 2013 as compared to Boeing’s 19. Not to business) could easily increase in response you’ve ever wondered how most U.S. troops mention that the 767 represents increasingly to market demand. get to Iraq, it is generally by ATA Lockheed obsolete technology (and is set to be An added bonus for contractor tankers Tristars or United Airlines Boeing 747s. In replaced by the 787 in Boeing’s own airliner is that during downtime, these aircraft can many ways the manner in which the military line) as the A330 is incontrovertibly in the easily be reallocated to civilian use. For will rent commercial airliners for troop prime of its operational life. Perhaps the example, a private contractor could operate transport is not too different from leasing air Pentagon simply decided not to replace a KDC-10 for a few days’ worth of Navy -to-air refueling tankers on an as-needed already obsolete technology with some more refueling missions, and for the rest of the basis. obsolete technology. And, the A330 had also week transport 300 holiday-makers on The private sector has demonstrated been selected recently by the Air Forces of Caribbean package holidays. Or, perhaps, how it can provide many services to the Australia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab the Air Force could have a “ready reserve” of military in a much more efficient and Emirates and the United Kingdom. aircraft capable of rapid conversion and effective way than if the military took care of But lost in all of this debate is this deployment in time of war, whilst otherwise those services themselves. As a result, the question: why is the Defense Department carrying around passengers and cargo like a military can focus on those tasks they are buying tankers at all? This question is not regular airliner. In other words, doing so best at and provide significant savings to based on a perceived glut of tankers, but could provide the Air Force with effective taxpayers. The debate over the tanker deal surge capacity. This form of contracting should not have centered on Boeing versus Email J. J. Messner at [email protected] allows private companies to operate Airbus; indeed, it should have centered on The author is the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of efficiently and minimize the waste caused by buy versus rent. International Peace Operations and is the Director sole-use tankers sitting idly on the tarmac of Programs and Operations at IPOA. BACKGROUND PHOTO: ROYAL AUSTRALIAN AIR FORCE

26 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Professional Development.

Did You Know?

Did you know that the Philadelphia Inquirer rated the Journal of International Peace Operations as one of the most influential policy publications in the United States?

Or, did you know that the Journal of International Peace Operations is read by over 10,000 people in the peace and stability operati0ns field?

Advertise in the Journal of International Peace Operations and a lot more people will know a lot more about you.

Visit www.peaceops.com or call +1 202.464.0721 to find out more.

27 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Professional Development.

Is Your Printer Running Out of Ink?

Much of the circulation of the Journal of International Peace Operations comes from online downloads. However, the Journal is also available in print! Subscribe to the print edition of the Journal and receive the world’s leading publication on the private peace and stability operations industry in wonderful, glossy color every two months.

For the price of a subscription, your printer will thank you.

U.S. Subscriptions US$ 45.95 per year Visit www.peaceops.com Overseas Subscriptions US$ 49.95 per year or call +1 202.464.0721 Postage and Handling included to find out more.

28 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Industry Conferences and Events.

THE SOUTH AFRICAN MILITARY ACADEMY presents

The 1st INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on AFRICANS SECURING AFRICA STRATEGIC CHALLENGES FOR ARMED FORCES FOR THE NEXT DECADE

BLUE BAY LODGE, SALDANHA 16 – 18 SEPTEMBER 2008

For more information, e-mail [email protected]

29 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008 Peacekeeping Operation Profile.

M OLLY STERNS African Union in Burundi Burundi’s Neighbors Seek to Maintain Peace After Years of Civil War

N April of 2003, the African Union (AU) permanently, the Arusha Accord launched the first full-fledged nevertheless suffered flagrant breaches of its I peacekeeping mission in the ceasefire provisions in the years that organization’s short history in the small followed, and, after a particularly costly central African nation of Burundi. assault on the capital of Bujumbura in early The country, which won independence 2003, the AU finally decided to act. from Belgium in 1962, had been beset by In April of 2003, the Heads of State and African Union Mission in Burundi destabilizing ethnic tensions and periodic Government of the AU met in Addis Ababa flare-ups of hostility ever since, but none as to discuss their response, settling at last on a Operation Commander: destructive as the violent sequence of events full-scale peacekeeping mission to restore Maj.-Gen. S.Z. Binda (South Africa) that began in 1993. In that year, the order to the country in accordance with Deputy Operation Commander: country’s first ever Hutu president, Melchio Article III of a 2002 variation of the ceasefire Brig.-Gen. G. Ayele (Ethiopia) Ndadaye, was killed in an assassination plot agreement that called for such an Commenced:

hatched by the military. His successor, international presence. The resultant AU Headquarters: another Hutu, died just months later in Mission in Burundi (AMIB) mandate Bujumbura, Burundi plane crash. This second sudden death left focused on safeguarding the cantonment Personnel: behind it a power vacuum so potent that it areas and providing technical assistance to 2,860 troops sparked a frenzy of bloodshed which killed the disarmament and demobilization Contributors of Personnel: 250,000 people within 12 months and process, with specific tasks including acting Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Africa quickly evolved into a ghastly civil war that as a liaison between hostile parties, Projected Cost would rage for the next seven years. monitoring and verifying the US$1.65 billion Though punctuated with periods of implementation of the ceasefire agreement, order, the conflict did not reach any facilitating the activities of other In addition to the lack of appropriate meaningful conclusion until late in 2000, stakeholders in the peace process, securing funding, AMIB faced challenges in several when the warring factions met in Arusha, safe passage for all parties as well as other key areas. While it did succeed in Tanzania, under the guidance of Julius identifying assembly and disengagement stabilizing much of the country, the AMIB Nyere and later Nelson Mandela to sign the areas, facilitating the delivery of was never able to fully secure the Bujumbura Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Accord. An humanitarian assistance, providing rural province, which remained hotly important first step in ending the violence protection for returning leaders, and, lastly, contested by rebel leader Agathon Rwasa coordinating with the United and his Palipehutu-FNL followers. The Nations representatives in the AMIB also struggled to coordinate activities country in the hope that a UN with the UN presence already on the ground, mission would move to replace leading to inefficiencies and gaps in the AMIB after a year’s time.[1] effectively monitoring the ceasefire The mission’s troop agreement. Furthermore, an over-reliance contributing countries were on the transitional government of Burundi limited to Ethiopia, Mozambique, left the AMIB compromised in implementing and South Africa, with conditions to which all warring parties could commitments of 980, 280, and agree. Finally, a lack of standardized 1600 men each, respectively. Led doctrine among the troop-contributing by South African Major-General countries created an environment of discord SZ Binda and his deputy, within the AMIB, where not only did Ethiopian Brigadier General G disagreements arise regarding best practices, Ayele, the force was comprised of but interpretation services to facilitate these both a military element including discussions were also lacking. infantry units, a protection and Thus while the AMIB proved valuable as reaction team, and a rapid a stop-gap measure to stem the immediate reaction force, as well as a limited flow of violence in 2003, it left significant civilian element based in challenges behind for the UN follow-up Bujumbura. The projected costs mission, ONUB, to address over the course for the mission totaled US$1.65 of its two-year mission. By 2006, however, million, but, falling short of funds after rebel leader Agathon Rwasa finally in its own peace operations agreed to sign a ceasefire agreement, the coffers, the AU was forced to rely ONUB’s mission came to an end and Peacekeepers stand guard over a refugee convoy in on troop-contributing countries Burundi continues to function peacefully Burundi. themselves to cover their initial today. PHOTO: MARTINE PERRET/ONUB deployment, as well as donations from Western supporters such as ENDNOTES the U.S. and the U.K., which never [1] The whole mandate description is paraphrased from Boshoff, Henri, “The AU Mission in Burundi: Technical and Operational Email [email protected] amounted to the full amount necessary to Dimensions”, African Secuirty Review, Vol.12 No. 3, 2003, The author is a Reasearch Associate at IPOA. conduct a successful operation. available at www.iss.co.za/pub/asr/12no3/awboshoff.html

30 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE OPERATIONS — www.PeaceOps.com — VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6 : May-June 2008