C O R P O R A T I O N U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning David Ochmanek, Peter A. Wilson, Brenna Allen, John Speed Meyers, Carter C. Price For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1782-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9742-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Research done at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere over the past several years has iden- tified some serious shortcomings in the ability of programmed U.S. forces to meet emerging challenges. Prominent among these challenges are those posed by the growth of advanced anti-access/area denial threats in the arsenals of U.S. adversaries, Russia’s use of military power against neighboring European states, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, and the spread of violent Salafist-jihadi ideology with the emergence of the quasi-state Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Individually, each of these developments places stress on U.S. and allied military capabilities. Collectively, they represent the major elements of an international security environment that is more complex and more dangerous than that to which Americans have been accustomed since the end of the Cold War. These developments should be important factors in the Trump administration’s review of National Defense Strategy. They should also prompt a reconsideration of the Budget Control Act of 2011, which became law before some of these threats became manifest. Clearly, the Trump administration will need to reassess the nation’s defense strategy, posture, and program with an eye toward finding a better balance than exists today between the ambitions embodied in the strategy and the resources devoted to it. This report is offered as a contribu- tion to that effort. This report should be of interest to defense policymakers, practitioners in the executive and legislative branches, analysts, the media, experts in nongovernmental organizations, and those concerned with defense planning and the role of the United States in international secu- rity affairs. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Funding for this study was provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is pro- vided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Tables ............................................................................................................ ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ........................................................................................... xvii Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE The Need for a New Approach to Force Planning ........................................................ 1 The Challenge Facing U.S. Forces and Their Capability to Respond ...................................... 1 This Report ....................................................................................................... 2 Approach in This Report ........................................................................................ 3 Organization of This Report .................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO China: Ensuring Access to the Air and Sea Commons and Sustaining Capabilities for Effective Power Projection Operations ................................................................ 7 Background and Purpose ....................................................................................... 7 High Stakes and Unfavorable Trends .......................................................................... 8 Scenario: An Invasion of Taiwan, Circa 2020 ...............................................................14 Additional Regional Challenges in Northeast and Southeast Asia ........................................19 Implications for Force Planning .............................................................................. 27 CHAPTER THREE Responding to Russia’s Remilitarization of Geopolitics in Europe ..................................31 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................31 New Security Trends in Europe ...............................................................................32 Scenario: Defending the Baltic States ....................................................................... 36 The Hybrid Threat ............................................................................................. 42 Actions the Baltic States Can Take to Enhance Security .................................................. 43 The Black Sea Region .......................................................................................... 44 Implications for Force Planning ...............................................................................45 CHAPTER FOUR Countering a Nuclear-Armed North Korea ...............................................................49 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................49 v vi U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World The Steady State ................................................................................................52 Potential Changes to the Steady State ........................................................................53 Scenario: North Korea Invades South Korea ............................................................... 54 Post-Conflict or Post-Collapse Stability Operations .......................................................57 A More-Stressful Scenario? ....................................................................................58 Implications for Force Planning ...............................................................................58 CHAPTER FIVE Countering Iranian Aggressiveness and Maintaining Balance in the Persian Gulf Region .....61 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................61 Trends in the Gulf Region—A Surprise-Free Projection ...................................................62 Iran’s Military Capabilities .................................................................................... 68 Scenario: Iranian Aggression and a Closure of the Strait ...................................................71 Implications for Force Planning ...............................................................................74 CHAPTER SIX Combating Salafist-Jihadi Groups: The Roles Played by U.S. SOF ................................. 77 Background and Purpose ..................................................................................... 77 Salafist Jihadism as a Global Insurgency .....................................................................79 USSOCOM as the Fifth Service ............................................................................. 80 The Unique Capabilities of USSOCOM .................................................................... 80 USSOCOM’s Major Theaters of Operation ................................................................ 84 Prospect of Technologically Enabled Hybrid Threats ...................................................... 88 From the USSOCOM Perspective: How Much is Enough? 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