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Holiday Watch Media Guide 2013, Facts & Figures Table of Contents

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Holiday Watch Media Guide 2013, Facts & Figures Table of Contents HOLIDAY WATCH MEDIA GUIDE 2013, FACTS & FIGURES TABLE OF CONTENTS WELCOME LETTER......................................................3 MEDIA ALERT...............................................................4 HOLIDAY FORECASTING..........................................5 FUN FACTS....................................................................10 BLACK FRIDAY.............................................................13 HOLIDAY GIFTS...........................................................14 MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA BIOGRAPHY......................15 2 HappY HOLIDAYS As the 2013 holiday season approaches, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is pleased to provide you with our annual Holiday Watch Media Guide. ICSC will be releasing weekly holiday sales figures throughout the holiday season, beginning Tuesday, November 12, 2013. The sales figures, which provide a week-over-week and year-over-year comparison, will be available on ICSC’s Holiday Watch Website: www.holiday.icsc.org at 7:45 a.m. each Tuesday. Once again, our Holiday Watch Media Guide contains the Hot Gifts List, Holiday Fun Facts, Holiday Forecasts and information on all Holiday GAFO sales. For your reference, in this document these measures are referred to as: • GAFO Store Sales are sales generated at stores that specialize in department-store type merchandise (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture, and other, which includes electronics, computers, sporting goods, music, books, hobby, office supplies, stationary and gift stores). These data are compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce. • Chain Store Sales Index are those receipts generated by non-anchor tenants at regional and super-regional malls in the United States. These data are compiled by ICSC from a representative sample of over 500 malls and stores selling apparel, furnishings, stationary/cards/gifts/novelty, books, sporting goods/bicycles, toys/ educational/hobby, personal care, jewelry, other GAFO-type merchandise, food service and other non-GAFO merchandise and services. • Shopping-Center-Inclined Retail Sales are compiled from U.S. Census Bureau retail sales data. This series includes general merchandise, apparel, furniture, electrontic and other store sales (GAFO) plus health and personal care store sales, food and beverage sales and building materials. In addition, ICSC will be releasing the results of a number of consumer surveys. Results will be posted on ICSC’s Holiday Watch website at www.holiday.icsc.org throughout the holiday season. So, as you begin to make your holiday season plans, remember to look to ICSC as your source for holiday related information. Happy Holidays from ICSC! 3 MEDIA ALERT CONTACTS International Council of Shopping Centers Malachy Kavanaugh +1 646-728-3495 Jesse Tron +1 646-728-3814 Elana Krasner +1 646-728-3515 WHAT The International Council of Shopping Centers will release its Weekly Chain Store Sales Report, a weekly report that measures nominal same-store sales or comparable-store sales excluding restaurants and vehicles demand, throughout the holiday season, beginning Tuesday, November 12, 2013. WHEN Retail Sales reports will be released at 7:45 a.m. EST on: DATE OF RELEASE DATA PERIOD Tuesday, November 19 November 10 - 16 Tuesday, November 26 November 17 - 23 Tuesday, December 3 November 24 - 30 Thursday, December 5 Month of November Tuesday, December 10 December 1 - 7 Tuesday, December 17 December 8 - 14 Tuesday, December 24 December 15 - 21 Tuesday, December 31 December 22 - 28 Tuesday, January 7 December 29 - 4 Thursday, January 9 Month of December INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITY ICSC’s staff vice president, chief economist and director of research, Michael P. Niemira, is available to provide in-depth analysis, including consumer perceptions, purchasing patterns and trends. Telephone and on-camera interviews can be arranged. Please call ICSC’s Media Relations Department at +1 646-728-3814/3515 to arrange an interview. Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its more than 60,000 members in over 100 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials. As the global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center councils throughout the world. For more information, visit www.icsc.org 4 HOLIDAY FORECAST ICSC FORECASTS HOLIDAY SALES TO INCREASE BY 3.4% Retailers Should Expect a Stronger Season Than Last Year It’s never to early to think about the holidays and the International Council of Shopping Centers is forecasting a 3.4% sales increase, slightly stronger than last year, for the traditional November-December holiday period, even though retailers are expecting a more modest spending season. Additionally, ICSC anticipates the the other two measures of U.S. industry holiday sales—shopping-center inclined sales +3.4%, and chain-store sales +2.0%—will both increase over last year as well. While the industry and the U.S. economy have gone through a mini-cycle slowdown the last three quarters, there are indicators of positive growth this season, despite retailer’s mixed outlook. Although consumers have faced some political and economic uncertainty—higher payroll taxes, a federal government shutdown, and questionable costs of the Affordable Care Act—this year’s sales are looking to be better than last year’s. “We’re going to see a more subdued spending mood from consumers, but what counts is that we’re on track to have a better holiday sales season than last year,” said Michael P. Niemira, vice president of research and chief economist for ICSC. “With leaner inventories, retailers can expect their prices and margins to remain stable, which is another good indicator of stronger sales,” he said. Additionally, holiday hiring is highly correlated with holiday spending, and can also forecast a stronger sales performance. It appears that holiday hiring will be up 0.5% from last year. ICSC CHAIN STORES SALES INDEX YEAR/YEAR Comparable-Store Sales During Holiday Season YEAR Q4 Growth Length of Holiday Shopping Season Day of the Week for Christmas Hanukkah 1993 3.7 29 Saturday 12/9 1994 4.2 30 Sunday 11/28 1995 1.6 31 Monday 12/18 1996 3.5 26 Wednesday 12/6 1997 4.2 27 Thursday 12/24 1998 4.8 28 Friday 12/14 1999 5.4 29 Saturday 12/4 2000 2.3 31 Monday 12/22 2001 1.0 32 Tuesday 12/10 2002 0.1 26 Wednesday 11/30 2003 4.1 27 Thursday 12/20 2004 3.2 29 Saturday 12/8 2005 3.6 30 Sunday 12/26 2006 2.2 31 Monday 12/16 2007 .02 32 Tuesday 12/5 2008 -2.5 27 Thursday 12/22 2009 0.8 28 Friday 12/12 2010 1.4 29 Saturday 12/2 2011 2.8 30 Sunday 12/21 2012 1.3 32 Tuesday 12/9 2013 2.0F 26 Wednesday 11/28 5 HOLIDAY FORECAST “TRADITIONAL” HOLIDAY-SEASON SPENDING TRENDS Billions of Dollars, November-December Periods, Not Seasonally Adjusted Category 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2004 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F GAFO Store Sales $204 $205.9 $215.5 $226.5 $238.9 $247.6 $251.5 $235.9 $233.0 $241.8 $251.4 $259.0 $267.7 % Change 3.4 0.9 4.6 5.1 5.5 3.6 1.6 -6.2 -1.2 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.4 Electronics & Appliances 19.1 19.0 20.8 22.1 23.7 25.6 26.2 23.5 22.4 22.4 23.2 23.1 23.2 % Change 6.3 -0.3 9.5 6.3 7.1 8.1 2.4 -10.4 -4.8 0.2 3.5 -0.4 0.4 Appliances, T.V. & Camera 15.2 15.3 16.7 18.2 19.4 21.0 21.4 19.2 18.4 17.7 17.0 16.6 --- % Change 7.1 0.4 9.4 8.8 6.5 8.3 2.1 -10.04 -4.4 -3.7 -3.7 -2.3 --- Computer & Software stores 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.2 --- % Change 0.2 -4.3 9.3 5.2 7.4 13.7 2.4 -4.9 2.4 16.3 13.0 5.3 --- Clothing & Accessorry Stores 39.9 41.3 43.3 45.6 48.7 50.9 51.2 45.5 45.6 48.7 52.4 54.6 57.0 % Change -1.6 3.4 5.0 5.4 6.7 4.5 0.7 -11.1 0.1 6.9 7.5 4.2 4.5 Men’s Clothing Stores 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 .8 1.9 1.9 --- % Change -11.8 -4.7 5.2 5.0 -0.4 3.3 -4.1 -13.2 -7.6 9.2 8.7 -4.6 --- Women’s Clothing stores 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.3 7.3 7.2 7.8 8.4 8.7 --- % Change -0.7 0.9 8.3 4.2 7.1 4.1 -1.6 -12.6 -0.3 7.9 7.2 3.9 --- Shoe Stores 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.8 --- % Change 0.6 -0.2 2.7 1.8 11.6 3.2 -0.2 -7.0 -0.1 7.4 8.9 1.3 --- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music 19.1 18.8 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.0 19.5 18.3 18.0 18.7 18.4 19.6 20.2 % Change 4.6 -1.5 -0.3 1.3 2.6 -2.1 2.6 -6.5 -1.3 3.8 -1.9 6.8 3.0 General Merchandise 99.4 100.1 105.1 111.0 117.1 122.0 125.8 124.2 124.1 128.2 132.7 135.7 140.5 % Change 5.0 0.7 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.2 3.2 -1.3 -0.1 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.5 Dept.
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