Violence, Conflict, and World Order

Violence, Conflict, and World Order: Rethinking War with a Complex Systems Approach by Michael Lawrence A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Global Governance Waterloo, Ontario, Canada 2019 © Michael Lawrence 2019 Examining Committee Membership Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo. Internal Examiner: Dr. David A. Welch, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Waterloo. Committee Member: Dr. Daniel Gorman, Professor, Department of History, University of Waterloo. Internal-External Examiner: Dr. Alexander Lanoszka, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Waterloo. External Examiner: Dr. Jack Donnelly, Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. ii Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. iii Abstract This thesis employs a complex systems approach to argue that the nature of violent conflict coevolves with broader features of world order. The first chapter demonstrates that International Relations and Comparative Politics – the predominant fields in the study of violent conflict – are insufficiently systemic to elucidate recent events. International Relations theories do not endogenize the formation of actors, struggle with systemic change, and remain unproductively fixated on anarchy. Comparative Politics focuses inordinately on ‘domestic’ causes of violent conflict and retains the baggage of modernization thinking. At the same time, the very concept of ‘war’ unproductively narrows the study of violent conflict. After identifying several key ‘macrotrends’ in warfare, the chapter proposes conceptual distinctions between violence, conflict, and order to better understand long-term variations. Chapter Two develops an ontology of world order based in complex systems thinking. After defining world order and exploring the nature of systems, the account conceives system structure as an emergent phenomenon in three senses. First, it draws upon structuration theory and complex adaptive systems thinking to explain the internal organization of collective social agents. It then draws upon political economy and constructivist thought to argue that agents form emergent relational structures by which they constitute, reproduce, and transform each other. Finally, this chapter argues that worldviews, institutions, and technologies constitute ‘emergent schematic assemblages’ as diffuse social entities in themselves. This ontology ultimately highlights actor differentiation, interaction capacity, and emergent schematic assemblages as core features of world order. The third chapter applies this ontology to argue that there are three broad sets of conflicts embedded in the system structure of world order which each evolve, erupt into violence of a particular character, and differentiate social actors in ways shaped by the broader features of world order (particularly its worldviews, institutions, technologies, and interaction capacity). World order shapes the consequent violent conflicts, but those violent conflicts also reshape world order, generating a co- evolutionary relationship. This framework helps explain several major trends in the nature of violent conflict by highlighting systemic influences on the formation of units and their vertical differentiation. Chapter Four further develops the links between globalization and violence by examining the rise of organized crime and of reactionary fundamentalist identity movements. It argues that these examples suggest possible future trajectories in the co-evolution of world order and violent conflict by challenging statehood as a basic organizing logic and by producing violence that is ill captured by basic notions of war, yet rivals its lethality. iv Acknowledgements It has been an extraordinary privilege to pursue my academic interests within the Doctoral Program in Global Governance of the Balsillie School of International Affairs (BSIA) at the University of Waterloo. I’d like to deeply thank my committee (Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Welch, and Daniel Gorman) for being so supportive, flexible, and encouraging of such a wide- ranging (and often amorphous) thesis project. All have provided invaluable mentorship, opportunities, and insights that have enriched my academic career and will shape my future endeavours. I would also like to thank the colleagues who provided crucial feedback and helpful suggestions on early texts of this thesis, namely: Jeffrey Checkel, Richard Sandbrook, William Coleman, Mark Sedra, Seva Gunitsky, and Jinelle Piereder. Any errors or problems are solely my responsibility. I could never have finished this degree without the constant support of my parents, Ian and Carol Lawrence; my partner Roisian Bone; and my colleague and mentor Prof. Dr. Pia Kleber. Finally, I’d like to thank all the wonderful professors and staff members at the BSIA, particularly Tim Donais, Andrew Thompson, Shelby Davis, Joanne Weston, and Tiffany Bradley, who have supported a variety of invaluable experiences I’ve enjoyed in the PhD program while I was supposed to be writing my thesis. v Table of Contents Examining Committee Membership ............................................................................................. ii Author’s Declaration ........................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ v Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... viii List of Illustrations: ............................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. x Chapter One: The Study of Violence, Conflict, and Social Order ...................................... 1 I. Three Intuitions: An Introductory Overview .................................................................... 2 II. The Systemic Deficits of International Relations Theory ........................................... 6 Endogenizing Actors ............................................................................................................. 12 Explaining Change .................................................................................................................. 21 Move Beyond Anarchy .......................................................................................................... 24 III. The Dubious Construct of ‘Civil War’ .............................................................................. 29 IV. Macrotrends of War ............................................................................................................... 40 V. The Limits of ‘War’ ................................................................................................................... 52 VI. Violence, Conflict, and Order .............................................................................................. 63 Chapter Two: A Complex Systems Ontology of World Order ......................................... 69 I. Towards a Complex Systems Ontology of World Order ............................................ 70 II. Order and Systems ................................................................................................................... 71 II. World Order as a System ....................................................................................................... 79 III. Schematic Elements of Social Ontology: Beliefs, Rules, and Procedures ........ 86 Worldviews ............................................................................................................................... 88 Institutions ................................................................................................................................ 91 Technology ................................................................................................................................ 92 IV. Social Structure as Emergence .......................................................................................... 94 Emergence ................................................................................................................................. 96 Emergent Collective Agents ............................................................................................ 105 Emergent Relational Structure ...................................................................................... 111 Emergent Schematic Assemblages ............................................................................... 117 V. The Assembled Complex Systems

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