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Deal of the Century” for Israel-Palestine US Proposals Are Likely to Speed Demise of Two-State Settlement Muriel Asseburg

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Deal of the Century” for Israel-Palestine US Proposals Are Likely to Speed Demise of Two-State Settlement Muriel Asseburg NO. 20 APRIL 2019 Introduction The “Deal of the Century” for Israel-Palestine US Proposals Are Likely to Speed Demise of Two-State Settlement Muriel Asseburg US President Donald Trump has announced a “deal of the century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The plan is to be revealed at an undetermined date some- time after the Israeli parliamentary elections. While the details remain a well-kept secret, the US Administration’s record to date suggests that the initiative will priori- tise Israeli interests over Palestinian rights, ignore fundamental principles of inter- national law, and steer well away from the idea of two sovereign states. The Palestinian leadership’s rejection must therefore be expected. The incoming Israeli government is likely to treat that as a green light to implement those elements of the plan that serve to maintain its permanent control over East Jerusalem and strategic areas of the West Bank. This course also risks breakdown of the already precarious Israeli-Pal- estinian cooperation on conflict management. The EU and its member states should take the publication of the US plan as an occasion to spell out the principles of the kind of conflict resolution that they could support, and state the consequences for European policy of Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank. Trump was already proclaiming an “ulti- Palestinian entity, and security – Trump’s mate deal” to end the Israel-Palestine con- team appears to be focussing above all on flict during his presidential campaign in economic cooperation and development in 2016. Since he took office a trio composed the Palestinian territories. This would make of his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Jason the US plan largely a redux of Israeli Prime Greenblatt, long-time confidant and chief Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s preferred legal officer to Trump’s business empire, option of “economic peace”. That means and US ambassador to Israel David Fried- massive investment in the Palestinian econo- man have been working on such a plan. my as a substitute for self-determination with- The US State Department, however, has not in a sovereign state. The Arab Gulf states been involved. Alongside the so-called final and neighbouring Egypt and Jordan are status issues to be agreed between the two meant to play a special role in this scheme, parties to the conflict – Jerusalem, refu- providing it with a political umbrella and/ gees, settlements, status and borders of the or underpinning it with financial support. The overriding goal is to put together a Trump also recognised Israeli sovereignty coalition in which Israel cooperates closely over the Syrian Golan Heights occupied with Arab regional powers and the United in 1967. While not relating directly to the States against Iran. Recent years have already Palestinian territories, the move signals that witnessed a noticeable rapprochement be- the Trump Administration does not neces- tween Israel and the Arab Gulf states. Now sarily feel bound by the international law Israel and the United States want to remove principle outlawing acquisition of territory the Palestinian hurdle that has to date pre- by force. And the Israeli right interprets this vented a complete normalisation of rela- as green light for annexations in the West tions. Bank. In 2018 Washington also stopped fund- ing the United Nations Relief and Works Elements of the Deal Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The United States had been Washington has revealed neither the ap- by far the largest contributor, covering proach nor the details of the “deal of the about one-third of UNRWA’s total budget in century”, which is supposed to serve as recent years. The background to this is that the basis for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. the Trump Administration shares the Israeli Yet, as far as the substance is concerned, government’s view that UNRWA perpetu- a number of inferences can be drawn ates the refugee problem by encouraging from the Administration’s actions and refugees to insist on their status and right pronouncements. The most basic of these of return rather than integrating within is that Trump refuses to unequivocally their current host states. According to press back a two-state settlement and refrains reports, Washington has also demanded from clearly condemning Israel’s settlement that Jordan strip Palestinians living there of policy in the occupied territories. US Am- refugee status and instead naturalise them. bassador Friedman makes no secret of his closeness to settler leaders. Washington has also ceased describing the Palestinian terri- Accelerating Erosion tories (and the Golan Heights) as “occu- pied”, for example in the US State Depart- Since Trump took office, Israelis and Pales- ment’s 2018 Human Rights Report. tinians have moved further away from a Moreover, President Trump has begun two-state settlement. Instead the one-state to question the international consensus on reality has become even more deeply en- final status issues (as laid out for example trenched: Israel enjoys overriding control of in UN Security Council Resolution 2334 of the entire region between the River Jordan December 2016). As Trump himself put it, and the Mediterranean, while the Palestin- he “took Jerusalem off the table”. While he ian Authority (PA) plays deputy sheriff. did note that recognition of Jerusalem as There have been no peace talks since April Israel’s capital did not prejudice a negotiated 2014. Backing by the Trump Administration agreement on the border between Israel and and a warming of relations with the Arab the Palestinians, all practical steps taken Gulf states have encouraged Netanyahu’s by the Americans point to an anticipated right-wing/national-religious coalition to outcome denying the Palestinians sover- expand settlement activity in the West eignty over central neighbourhoods of East Bank and Jerusalem, to open the way to Jerusalem: moving the US embassy to Jeru- annexation of settlements, to expand the salem, closing the consulate-general in East Jewish population share in Jerusalem and Jerusalem (which had mainly been re- to strengthen the Jewish identity of the sponsible for the Palestinians) and termi- state of Israel. These objectives were pur- nating financial support for Palestinian sued by a string of bills introduced to the institutions in the city. Knesset since 2017 (some of which have SWP Comment 20 April 2019 2 been placed on hold or overturned by the While US support for the Palestinian secu- High Court). In March 2017 Israel’s security rity forces was actually supposed to con- cabinet authorised – for the first time in tinue, the PA felt forced to reject it from twenty-five years – an entirely new settle- January 2019 in order to avoid risking pros- ment in the central West Bank. Represen- ecution under the US Anti-Terrorism Clarifi- tatives of the governing parties reject a sov- cation Act (ATCA). ereign Palestinian state and argue increas- In February the PA lost another signifi- ingly vehemently for annexation of Area C cant source of income. In the course of of the West Bank (about 60 percent by area) the election campaign the Israeli cabinet or even the entire West Bank. In the 2019 decided to apply the so-called Stern Law. election campaign Netanyahu also stated Under the motto “No pay for slay” this cuts his intention to expand Israeli sovereignty Israel’s transfer payments to the PA (an ele- to parts of the West Bank. ment of the 1994 Israeli-Palestinian Proto- In the absence of a perspective of conflict col on Economic Relations) by the amount resolution, Israeli-Palestinian cooperation paid by the PA during the previous year on conflict management has further eroded to Palestinians imprisoned in Israel (all in- over the last few years. Clashes over the discriminately labelled “terrorists”) and to Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif have fre- the families of “martyrs”. In response the quently escalated, requiring Jordanian PA refused to accept the reduced transfers. mediation to restore calm. More than 180 As a result, according to UN figures, it lacks Palestinians have been shot dead by Israeli about two thirds of its income. In the ab- soldiers since late March 2018, in the course sence of a rapid political solution to this of the “Great March of Return” protests at problem, this is likely to lead to the rapid the Gaza border fence; thousands more financial collapse of the PA. have been injured, many seriously. On the Other moderating institutions have been Israeli side incendiary kites and firebombs dismantled too. In January 2019 Netanyahu thrown over the border fence have caused decided to end the Temporary International material damage including destroying agri- Presence in Hebron (TIPH), an observer mis- cultural crops. Increasingly frequent rocket sion that had worked since 1994 – with and artillery exchanges between Israel and few interruptions – to deescalate between radical groups in Gaza have repeatedly Palestinians and radical settlers in the old brought the coastal strip to the verge of city. This is likely to accelerate the quarter’s war. While Egypt and the UN were able to transformation through settlement activity, mediate short-term ceasefires to calm the displacement of the Palestinian population situation and somewhat soften Gaza’s and emphasis of Jewish over Islamic cul- closure, a long-term ceasefire, security tural heritage. The level of violence has guarantees and the lifting of the blockade already increased noticeably since the mis- have proven unachievable. Consequently sion’s withdrawal. the humanitarian crisis in Gaza drags on. The process of erosion would accelerate still further if the Palestinian leadership Assessment and were to decide to implement the decisions Recommendations of the PLO Central Council, which has in recent years repeatedly voted to suspend The American “deal of the century” is un- security cooperation with Israel.
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