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2019 Banking Industry Outlook Download The 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation 2 Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here Table of contents Calmer waters: A decade after the financial crisis, the banking industry is on firmer ground 1 Regulation: A new era of global regulatory divergence 5 Technology: Creating a symphonic enterprise 8 Risk: Strengthening the core with new-age defenses 11 Retail banking: The digital leadership race 13 Corporate banking: Digitization and a new credit discipline 16 Transaction banking: Modernizing operations with a focus 18 on improving the client experience Investment banking: New client engagement models 19 and ecosystem orchestration Payments: The imperative to diversify growth, 22 bolster security, and restructure the organization Wealth management: Balancing business growth 24 with product rationalization and transparency Market infrastructure: Harnessing the power of data 26 and technologies to drive a competitive growth agenda 02 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation Calmer waters A decade after the financial crisis, the banking industry is on firmer ground The global banking system is not only bigger and more Total assets in the United States reached a peak of profitable but also more resilient than at any time in $17.5 trillion.2 Capital levels are up as well, with average tier 1 the last 10 years (figure 1). According to The Banker’s capital ratio standing at 13.14 percent. Return on equity Top 1000 World Banks Ranking for 2018, total assets (ROE) for the industry is at a post-crisis high of 11.83 percent.3 reached$124 trillion, while return on assets (ROA) stood at Efficiency ratios also are at their best. Similarly, on other 0.9 percent. Similarly, tier 1 capital ratio as a proportion of metrics, such as nonperforming loans and number of assets rose to 6.7 percent, significantly higher than in 2008.1 failed institutions, the US banking industry is robust. But the recovery since the financial crisis has not been However, the same cannot be said of the banking industry uniform across regions. US banks, compared to their in Europe. Structural deficiencies, overcapacity, low/negative European counterparts, are ahead on multiple measures. interest rates, and the absence of a pan-European banking Aggressive policy interventions and forceful regulations regulatory agency have all likely contributed to European helped propel US banks to health more quickly. And banks experiencing persistent profitability challenges. more recently, favorable GDP growth, tax cuts, and rising rates have further bolstered the state of the industry. Figure 1. Growth of the global banking industry In the last decade, the top 1,000 world banks have grown Bigger More profitable Better capitalized Assets ($T) Return on assets (%) Tier 1 capital/assets (%) 6.7% $123.7 .9% $96.4 4.4% .1% 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 Sources: Danielle Myles, “Top 1000 World Banks 2018,” The Banker, July 2, 2018; Danielle Myles, “Top 1000 World Banks 2017,” The Banker, July 3, 2017; Charles Piggott, “Top 1000 World Banks 2009,” The Banker, June 24, 2009. 1 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation Many European banks have become smaller, retrenching reported a 15.3 percent ROE in 2017.7 However, the concern from international markets and exiting former profitable with economic growth and the tariff war with the United businesses. Consider the fact that profits of the top five States are already affecting prospects.8 Meanwhile, Japanese European banks dropped from $60 billion in 2007 to banks, which escaped the financial crisis, have long suffered $17.5 billion in 2017.4 However, European banks are showing the effects of slow domestic growth and low/negative some improvement. ROE for Western European banks interest rates.9 in the top 1,000 world banks grew to 8.6 percent in 2017, compared with 5.5 percent in 2016.5 Despite this overall optimistic picture for the global banking industry, uncertainties loom on the horizon. Real GDP In the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, the growth of Chinese growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund banks has been the most stunning development in the last (IMF) point to a deceleration in all regions, including China 10 years. The Chinese banking industry has surpassed that and Emerging Asia (figure 2). In the latest forecast, Deloitte of the European Union (EU) in terms of size. The world’s four economists are predicting a 25 percent probability of a largest banks in 2018 are Chinese; in 2007, none of the top recession in the United States in 2019. In this scenario, 10 banks in the world were Chinese.6 Chinese banks are tariffs and dilution of the stimulus effect could weaken US also doing well in terms of profitability—the larger banks economic growth in late 2019 or early 2020.10 Figure 2. Real GDP growth by region, 2013–2023 In the last decade, the top 1,000 world banks have grown 9% Forecast 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 European Union Emerging Europe Emerging Asia LatAm MENA China Japan USA Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018, International Monetary Fund. 2 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation And on the regulatory front, global divergence shows no Last year, we urged banks and capital markets signs of abating as governments continue to buck previous institutions to accelerate their transformation, post-crisis trends of synchronization. To spur economic particularly digital transformation. No doubt many growth, local jurisdictions are increasingly implementing banks have embraced digital transformation across their own standards, sometimes in patchwork. the banking and capital markets value chain. While net new regulations in the United States appear But how much of this change is purposeful and unlikely, the reprieve has largely been confined to smaller strategic? Change for change’s sake typically only begets and midsize banks. Large banks, despite potential disappointment. Banks should bolster their conviction and relief from the Volcker Rule, are expected to continue reimagine transformation as a holistic, multiyear process to operate under the same regulatory agenda. and “change how they change.” The world is becoming too volatile, and external change is happening more rapidly In the technology arena, the promise of exponential than before. Taking a traditional approach in confronting technologies seems more real than ever. While the wild these challenges may not work. “Change the bank” enthusiasm with blockchain has tapered off, the industry initiatives should move to the fore and could essentially continues to sail toward a blockchain future. However, become the new operating model for “running the bank.” the energy might now lie with artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud, as they are already transforming This transformation should fundamentally start with many aspects of banking in significant ways. banks reaffirming their role in the global financial system. What do they want to be in the next five or 10 years? But for any of these technologies to have maximal impact, data is key. Although data is plentiful, it is often Banks should discard grand visions of becoming not easily accessible, clean enough, nor integrated. “a technology company” and instead focus on customers, enhance trust as financial intermediaries, facilitate capital Meanwhile, the relationships between banks, fintechs, and flows, and provide credit to the global economy with data bigtechs are evolving rapidly. Fintechs are increasingly no as the bond that sustains the amalgam of technologies—AI, longer seen as scrappy adversaries—collaboration with automation, cloud, core modernization, etc.—best suited incumbents is more the norm. With increasing industry for the purpose. convergence, the relationship between the banking industry and bigtech can be characterized as a bit guarded. Banks typically need bigtech, and in some ways bigtechs also need banks, as the banking industry remains a big revenue source for many technology companies. 3 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation Figure 3. Reimagining transformation in banking and capital markets Regulations and tax Market Retail infrastructre banking r c e n e t m r o i t c s i u t Wealth y Corporate C Technology management Reimagining banking Risk and and data transformation C privacy y u t i s c t i o r m t e n r e c Payments Transaction banking Investment banking Talent Source: Deloitte Center for Financial Services analysis. Future-proofing the business We urge banks not to become complacent. The economic/ Our main message, though, is the following: There may credit cycle is bound to turn at some point. Use recent be no better time than now to reimagine transformation. fortunes to invest wisely, and pursue change with clarity Economic fundamentals are stronger than at any and conviction. time in the last decade. The regulatory climate is not going to get any more challenging. And, technologies In this report—the 2019 Banking and Capital Markets to enable transformation are not only getting more Outlook—we discuss the need for strategic transformation powerful but also more readily accessible, easily in the following areas in 2019: regulatory compliance, implementable, and economical than before. tax, technology, risk, privacy, and talent. We then lay out our expectations in seven primary business Indeed, there appears to be a new kind of segments: retail banking, corporate banking, transaction promise in the banking industry. banking, investment banking, payments, wealth management, and market infrastructure (figure 3). 4 2019 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook: Reimagining transformation Regulation A new era of global regulatory divergence Last year, we predicted a stabilization on the regulatory The Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) fiduciary rule, requiring front after years of intense scrutiny by regulators financial institutions to act in the best interest of their around the globe.
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