Climate Change Impact on Olneya Tesota A. Gray (Ironwood) Distribution in Sonoran Desert Using Maxent Modeling Approach
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Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity 1(2): 110-117 (2017) by Arak University, Iran (http://jwb.araku.ac.ir/) Research Article DOI: 10.22120/jwb.2017.28427 Climate change impact on Olneya tesota A. Gray (Ironwood) distribution in Sonoran desert using MaxEnt Modeling approach variable is BIO2=Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of 1 Ahmad Moghaddam-Gheshlagh *, Sergio monthly (max temp - min temp)) (0.9%). This 1 Hernández-Verdugo , Edgar Omar means that the presence of the species is highly 2 3 Rueda-Puente , Jesús Soria-Ruiz , Saúl depended on dry months precipitation of which 1 Parra-Terrazas , Antonio Pacheco- doesn’t have high fluctuations according to the 1 4 Olvera , Nastaran Mafakheri used climate change scenario. Temperature fluctuations have not affected O. tesota A. Gray 1 *Agronomy Faculty, Autonomous University presence as it is known as a resistant species for of Sinaloa, Sinaloa, Mexico. extremely high temperatures. Therefore the email: [email protected] probability of the presence of the species shows 2Agriculture and Livestock Department (DAG), a significant increase on high altitudes University of Sonora, Bahía Kino Highway Km 18.5. 83000 Hermosillo, Sonora, México. mountains on the north-east of the Sonora state. 3Geomatics Lab., National Institute of Research Finally, the study concludes that the climate for Forestry Agricultural and Livestock change will affect the distribution of the O. (INIFAP). Zinacantepec 51350, Mexico. tesota A. Gray as an extinction risk and the same 4Dep. of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of time will help the expansion of the species Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak presence probability on the region. And it has University, Arak, Iran. been encountered new regions to recommend this valuable species as a reforestation Received: 2 September 2017 / Revised: 27 September 2017 / Accepted: 8 October 2017 / Published online: 12 November 2017. alternative for conservation and management Ministry of Sciences, Research and Technology, Arak University, strategy like Soyopa, Aguaprieta and Sahuaripa Iran. municipalities among the others. Abstract Keywords: Ironwood, Distribution, Climate Based on different climatic scenarios, the change, Sonoran desert, Mexico. distribution of the Olneya tesota A. Gray (Ironwood) has been modeled using MaxEnt Introduction modeling approach in the Sonora State of Extinction and invasion risks of species is an Mexico. Maximum Entropy species Distribution important issue on natural resources Modeling was used to predict distribution conservation and management in all over the probability. 71,168 presence data and BIO1 to world (Walker 2014). Climate change impact BIO19 variables of Worldclim BIOCLIM on natural resources is an important driver of dataset for the present time, 2050 and 2070 used extinction and invasion risk and these kinds of for modeling. The model performed with an studies are highly recommended to formulate acceptable range of sensitivity for training data more efficiently bio-informatics conservation (AUC=0.927) and random prediction and management strategies (Peterson et al. (AUC=0.5). The results demonstrated that the 2015). Many types of research are indicating high contributed variable on the presence of the that the extinction risk is rising because of O. tesota A. Gray is BIO17 Precipitation of climate change impact (Thomas et al. 2004; Driest Quarter (48.3%) and the low contributed Pearson et al. 2014) and anthropogenic 111 | Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity 1(2): 110-117 (2017) activities unsustainable increasing (Leão et al. others (Araújo et al. 2005, Phillips et al. 2006). 2014). The global average of the extinction There are different models developing day by ratio of the species that mainly caused by day in this area of science with using different climate change impact globally is around 1% of algorithms such as BIOMAPPER (ecological the species per year, and many important niche factor analysis), GARP (genetic scientific journals papers like Nature Journal algorithm), GRASP (generalized linear model), mentioning the extinction rate of the species SPECIES (Artificial neural network) (Austin will increase to more than 10% per year on 2007, Pearson et al. 2011) and many others. 2050, and some of them calculating for Mexico One of the most common presence data-only biodiversity it will be more than global average used is MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and even 35% of biodiversity on 2050 will (Phillip et al. 2004, Khanum et al. 2013) that extinct (Thomas et al. 2004; Peterson et al. has shown good results on distribution 2015). For Mexican deserts, this problem is prediction and model evaluation (Matyukhina more visible because of agricultural expansion et al. 2015, Elia et al. 2015). Worldclim and other inadequate use of water resources BioClimatic database is well-known to use as a among the others. Therefore, it is crucial to put principal database as environmental layers special emphasis on desert keystone species. inputs on SDM modeling. As coming in this For various reasons, even in developed paper the world climate provided data from the countries, identification, sampling and real global climate change modeling scenarios are mapping of the natural resources still remains a also common for future distribution modeling difficult issue for each species (Del Barrio et al. of the species. And also it is proved that using 2006) on actual time and their changes with the the collection of different species sampling currently high climate changes fluctuations and geographical coordination also applicable for anthropogenic activities impact on the modeling for the enriching of the observational populations and distributions of the species database for any SDM modeling like MaxEnt. (Peterson et al. 2015). Unfortunately, Mexico O. tesota A. Gray (Ironwood) is one of the high as a mega-biodiverse country with more than value and key species s as a principal pattern 40% territory superficies’ as arid and semiarid distributed on Sonoran desert ecosystem zones with continuous increasing of (Shupe 2005) which illegally cut by people for desertification and deforestation (Vázquez- different uses such as handicrafts and coal Méndez et al. 2008) and categorized with a high production among the other purposes (Zuñiga rate of desertification on international scientific and Suzán 2010). This species is an endemic communities. On the other hand, these areas one that classified as being in extinction risk key species’ have special importance on treat and encountered under the special ecology, ecosystem and human life (Medeiros protection of NOM. 056. 2010 of Mexico and it and Drezner 2012). There are few studies about is recommended numerous times to the Mexico flora species distribution with conservation, rehabilitation and as a evaluation of climate change impact on their reforestation alternative on the Sonoran desert distribution and almost there is no study about (Verónica and Humberto 2014). Due to high climate change impact on the distribution of costs and risks of reforestation and desert species like O. tesota A. Gray (Del-Val rehabilitation on desert regions, generating et al. 2015). useful and applicable knowledge on the local Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) models scale about the future suitable environment for are one of the useful instruments to study niche its presence is necessitated as a management modeling, extinction and invasion risk, micro strategy planning (Medeiros and Drezner and macro habitat suitability and climate 2012). Unfortunately, there are only a few change impact on their distribution among the studies about O. tesota A. Gray and other desert 112 | Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity 1(2): 110-117 (2017) species actual distribution and suitable is the principal part of the global habitat of the environmental conditions considering climate O. tesota A. Gray species with 179,355 km2 change impact to know future distribution area considered as an area of study. This region (Zuñiga and Suzán 2010). Therefore, in this has an elevation from 0 m to 2,620 m of the study, it is hypothesized that the climate change elevation expanded from Baja California Gulf or global warming is a strong threat of the to Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains that extinction of O. tesota A. Gray on Sonoran includes 3 types of climate Variety to consider desert. Therefore they are many questions about as the principal demonstrative habitat of the O. O. tesota A. Gray species that may respond by tesota A. Gray (Fig. 1). MaxEnt modeling. Our study focused on finding some confinable responses for following questions: 1-How is the actual probable presence distribution of the species on the Sonora State of Mexico according to all historical presence data of it on Sonora State? 2) How will affect global warming (climate change) in 2050 and 2070 on the distribution of the species? or whether climate change is an extinction risk Figure 1. Delimitation of distribution of the species treat for it? or will affect the suitability of (http://globalspecies.org/kmlserver/getkml/Olneya_ environment condition for it in the future at tesota/range). Sonora State? 3) Which environmental factors The strongly altered habitat patch, are more important in the actual and future ‘Falkenbergwiese’ (hereafter FB), was an distribution of the species at Sonora State? And isolated 5-ha meadow in the north of Vienna why? 4) What kinds of recommendations may (48°18'N, 16°22'E; elevation 318 m). The give to conservation and management strategy native dry