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Annual Report 2017 / 2018 Comet Annual Report 2018 CENTRE FOR THE OBSERVATION AND MODELLING OF EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANOES AND TECTONICS ANNUAL REPORT 2017 / 2018 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 2 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 CONTENTS Director’s welcome _________________________________________________________________________4 Chair’s foreword ___________________________________________________________________________5 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________________6 Our new members _________________________________________________________________________8 A look back at 2017/18 ______________________________________________________________________10 Progress against our 2016/17 objectives ________________________________________________________22 Research highlights _________________________________________________________________________36 Publications _______________________________________________________________________________52 Collaborations and partnerships _______________________________________________________________56 Awards and recognition ______________________________________________________________________58 Glossary _________________________________________________________________________________62 Annex 1 COMET publications January to December 2017 ___________________________________________64 3 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 DIRECTOR’S WELCOME Our fourth annual report comes at a time of celebrating success whilst we plan COMET’s future. Earlier this year I had the honour of accepting, on behalf of Our partnership with the British Geological Survey (BGS) COMET, the Royal Astronomical Society Group Acheivement now includes a joint long-term vision, ensuring that COMET Award in Geophysics. This recognised the efforts of the entire supports BGS’s commitment to UK Government on disaster COMET family, of whom I remain immensely proud. I would response. like to formally thank everyone involved in COMET, past and present, for their contributions. Our success in securing Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) support is meanwhile helping to address significant Although the award acknowledged the full scope of our challenges faced by developing countries in relation to research, our work on satellite geodesy was singled out for environmental hazards, ranging from volcanic emissions in commendation. LiCSAR, our processing system designed Nicaragua to earthquakes in Chile and crustal movements in to handle the vast amounts of data from the Sentinel-1 Ethiopia, and from seismic hazard in Malawi to global volcano satellites, is now providing high-resolution deformation data alert systems based on satellite data. for the entire Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, where most of the planet’s deadly earthquakes occur. We are expanding As all of this suggests, COMET is part of a global community LiCSAR to provide global coverage, as well as developing working to improve understanding of seismic hazard. We also a system to allow rapid response to seismic and volcanic have a growing cohort of young researchers who are vital not events. only to delivering all of this, but also to steering COMET into its next phase. Their work features throughout this report, and Our new system using Sentinel-1 to monitor volcano I am sure that some of their names will become increasingly deformation, LiCSAR-volcano, is also now operational, familiar in coming years. allowing us to monitor ground deformation on 929 volcanoes worldwide, including Africa and Central and South America - In the meantime, during the next year, we will continue to regions with large explosive volcanoes currently only covered produce research into seismic and volcanic hazard which has by limited ground surveys. real-world impact whilst planning a vibrant and successful future. Our capacity to monitor volcanic ash as well as SO2 emissions in near-real time using the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Professor Tim Wright Interferometer (IASI) continues to improve, and in particular COMET Director we have made progress on using IASI to monitor smaller and lower altitude emissions as well as ongoing activity. We have also remained responsive to the dynamic Earth, responding to events in Agung (Indonesia), China and the Galapagos Islands amongst other places, all of which are described in this report. 4 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 CHAIR’S FOREWORD As Chair of the COMET Advisory Board, I am delighted to reflect back on another successful and stimulating year, the highlight of which was the well- attended COMET annual meeting. COMET’s enthusiasm for scientific discovery and its community spirit were evident throughout the event, continuing to build its reputation as a collaborative, world- leading research organisation. Speaking on behalf of the Board, we are particularly encouraged by the strong scientific contributions from COMET’s students and early career researchers. With their expertise and commitment to the organisation, COMET’s future is clearly in good hands. In future, as well as hearing about new scientific developments and responses to recent events, we look forward to seeing COMET’s progress on integrating observations and models, and increasing their application to seismic hazard forecasting. All of these elements are described in this document, and we hope that you find the content as interesting and informative as we have. On behalf of the COMET Advisory Board, Professor Ramon Arrowsmith Chair, COMET Advisory Board 1000-m high Bordeira (caldera wall) of the Cha das Caldeiras Caldera in Fogo (Cape Verde) Credit: Pablo J González, March 2018, University of Liverpool5 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 INTRODUCTION The Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET) provides national capability in the observation and modelling of tectonic and volcanic hazards. We deliver services, facilities, data and long-term research In addition, we are working with business, Government and to produce world-leading science that can help the UK and the space agencies to ensure that the UK continues to invest others to prepare for, and respond rapidly to, earthquakes and in and benefit from satellite missions. eruptions. COMET has three main aims for 2014-2019: to measure Based at the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge, Leeds, tectonic strain with unprecedented resolution for the entire Bristol, Reading, Durham, Liverpool, Newcastle and planet, to measure deformation and gas release at every University College London (UCL), we use satellite Earth active volcano, and to combine these data with ground-based Observation (EO) techniques such as Synthetic Aperture observations to build new models of hazardous processes Radar Interferometry (InSAR) alongside ground-based that can be used to mitigate risk. observations and geophysical models to study earthquakes and volcanoes, and understand the hazard they pose. As well This report gives an overview of COMET’s activities during as providing scientific leadership in EO, we have a vibrant 2017-18, highlighting major scientific achievements as well young community of postgraduate students and early career as progress against our key objectives. It covers the period researchers. 1 January – 31 December 2017 for publications, and 1 April 2017 – 31 March 2018 for all other outputs. We work closely with the British Geological Survey (BGS), with our sponsors the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), with the European Space Agency (ESA), and with many other national and international partners. 6 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 Image An interferogram of the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake Credit: John Elliott, University of Leeds 7 COMET ANNUAL REPORT 2018 OUR NEW MEMBERS Milan Lazecky, COMET Scientific Programmer (Leeds) Milan joins COMET in the key post of Scientific Programmer, focusing on the development and maintenance of the LiCSAR facility, which is automatically producing InSAR products with Sentinel-1 data. Milan is working closely with the wider COMET and Looking inside the Continents from Space (LiCS) teams to implement new developments in the system and extend its coverage. Matthew Fox, COMET Associate1, (UCL) Matthew’s research focuses on understanding landscape evolution to deconvolve complex feedbacks amongst climate and tectonics. In doing so, he combines geomorphic and geophysical data with novel numerical methods to study surface processes at a range of spatial and temporal scales, addressing questions such as how do changes in climate modulate the processes or rates of erosion; how do tectonic processes respond to this redistribution of mass; and how quickly does CO2 in the Earth’s climate decrease due to increased silicate weathering driven by tectonic activity. Ekbal Hussain, COMET Associate (BGS) Following completion of his PhD at Leeds, Ekbal is now a Remote Sensing Geoscientist at BGS where he is continuing his work on applying InSAR techniques to understand ground deformation around active tectonic faults. He also works with optical satellite imagery to produce digital elevation models, mapping faults and surface geomorphology, and uses satellite imagery to map landslides and provide the groundwork for landslide susceptibility modelling. In addition Ekbal works closely with the Global Earthquake Model to calculate the seismic risk to cities from potential distant and near-field earthquake sources. Dylan Rood, COMET Associate (Imperial College London) Dylan applies cosmogenic isotopes and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) to studying active tectonics, Earth surface processes, climate change, and earthquake hazards. Currently Director
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