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T02 73 Ministry to the Presidency of the Republic, in Charge of Finance and Planning General Directorate of Planning Public Disclosure Authorized

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T02 73 Ministry to the Presidency of the Republic, in Charge of Finance and Planning General Directorate of Planning Public Disclosure Authorized J' The World Bank i zs Democratic RepubkAh.,.-/t02 73 Ministry to the Presidency of the Republic, in Charge of Finance and Planning General Directorate of Planning Public Disclosure Authorized / Report No. 10273 Public Disclosure Authorized The Impact of the Andapa-Sambava Road: A Socio-Economic Study of the Andapa Basin Madagascar Public Disclosure Authorized Volume I Prepared by Public Disclosure Authorized / Brigitta Mitchell Xavier Rakotonirina Transportation Department General Directorateof Planning Washington, D.C., USA December,1977 Antananarivo, MADAGASCAR v THE IMPACT IF THE ANDAPA-SAMBAVAROAD: A SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE ANDAPA BASIN MADAGASCAR VOLUME I -f TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME I Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .. e. ............................. i-x I. INTRODUCTION ................... 0.0Oe0 ... 000000*o I A. THE STUDY AREA ... oo........oooooo ....... o 1 B. THE ROAD PROJECT 2 ... ...... o........ 2 C. THE ROAD IMPACT STUDY ......,....o..o.... oo 2 II. METHOD A. GENERAL STUDY DESIGN ....... ................... 6 B. THE SAMPLE SURVEYS: 1965-1975 ............... ...... 8 1. The Baseline Survey: BCEOM, July 1964-June 1965 8 Household Sample ..... ...... ....... 9 Sample of Areas Under Different Crops ..... 10 Market/Price Survey *................. ..... 11 Survey of Air Transport Movements to/from Andapa ..*.0.0... o......0....0o 0o 00.0.... 11 2. The Post-Road-Completion Survey: IBRD, July- December 1975 .................0.. ........ 11 Household Sample (incl. area cultivated) .*. 12 Market/Price Survey ....... ..........o ..... 16 Transporter Survey . .. 16 Origin/Destination Surveys ...... 4... ... 16 Special Surveys .0..00.00. 000. ........ 0 o*o 17 C. PATA COLLECTION ..... 00 .....0 0 0 . .0.000 .. ......... 0 00 0 s The Base Survey - 1965 ................0.. ........ 18 The Follow-up Survey - 1975 .... 0.0.. ....0 19 D. THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS ............. .......... 20 III. FINDINGS A. REGIONAL STRUCTURES 1965-1975: COMPARATIVE PI.,TURE DRAWN FROM SECONDARY DATA SOURCES AND SPECIAL SURVEYS ......... 00......... ...................... 0 ... 28 1. Local Administrative Organization and Structure * 28 2. Social Services in the Study Area . 31 - Education .. 00 .00..0.00..0.000...0.0....0000. 31 - Health ......... .....................o. 32 3. Infrastructure and Technical Services o......... *. 36 Banking .0*000000000.0.............00...........................o 36 Tax Collection ................................ 36 Licensing/Registrations 00 0 .............0. .......... 36 Public Works Department .....o..................... 37 Water and Forestry Department ..........o ........ 37 Agriculture Service .........................oo ... 38 OPACA/Rural Engineering ...........o ............. 38 -2- Page No. 4. Agrict.lture: Area Potential and Area Produiction:1965-1975 ...................... e . 41 5. Prices of Major Agricultural Outputs and Inputs: 1935-1974. ........................... 46 B. ECONOMIC EXCHANGESBETW'EEN THE REGION AND THE REST-OF TaE-WORLD ............... o. .. oo.oo. ... oo. 50 1. Air Exports/Imports 1965: Volume and Cost o....,50 2. Road Traffic: 1975 *e.oe. ......... ,e,, 52 The Local Road Transport Industry ....... 52 Transporters Operating Revenues and Costs 53 Freight and Passenger Transport Tariffs *.. 56 Area Demand for Transport 1975 ........... 56 Estimated Volume of Marketed Production ... 57 Results of O/D Surveys ............. o.... 59 Vehicle Traffic .............. 59 Passenger Traffic .o..... ,..... 64 C. THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE ROAD INVESTMENT o.... 67 1l Patterns of Crop Production........ 67 2. The Economic Benefits of the Road: The Producer Surplus Analysis ..............§ .. 70 3. The Economic Benefits of the Road: The Road User Savings Analysis ............... ,,........ 77 4. Rate of Return Estimates ..... o,....., ..... 83 IV. INCOME DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS: CHANGES IN GENF'RAL WELFARE AND AREA RESIDENTS' LEVEL OF LIVING A. INCOME LEVELS AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: 1965-1975 .... 89 B. PATTERNS OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 111I................ C. SOME SOCIAL INDICATORS OF LEVEL OF LIVING ......... 124 1. Land Tenure Patterns and Agricultural Production Techniques 0 .....0 0 . .00 * , ............ 125 2. Shelter .......... o. o .. 0. 0000000..o. 135 3. Nutrition .......... ooooo*e* o. ....... 0. ........ 144 4. Some Demographic Characteristics 0... ....... 145 V. ATTITUDES AND OPINIONS ON THE IMPACT OF THE ROAD, AND ON INDIVIDUAL AND COMMLr'ITYDEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES * .......... 150 Table No. Table of Tables Page No. I Universe and Sample of Andapa Area Households Stratified by Occupational Groups: 1965 *.e.....-o 9 2 Universe and Sample of Andapa Area Households Stratified by Occupational Groups: 1965-1975 ....... 16 3 Population of the Andapa Basin: 1965-1975 ......... 0 28 4 Attrition Rate of Primary/SecondarySchool Pupils - 1975 Enrolment ..o...,... ,,.ooo0oe voeoo@*, .00.000.0.. 32 5 Health Service Facilities: 1964/65 - 1975 ............ 33 6 Cultivable Land by Type of Soil, 1965-70-74 .......... 41 7 Major Crops Cultivated - Area Cultivated 1965-70-74 .. 43 8 Crop Production in Tonnes: Andapa Basin 1965-74 ..... 44 9 ComparativePrice Increase for Selected Crops: 1966-74 (ProducerPrice & Realized Export Price: FMG/Kg) *e.oGe.e.....o......b........................oooo 46 10 ComparativeValue and Volume of Imported Agricultural Inputs: 1970-74 ....***0 .*..***0 .. ......... .........9 0. ..... 48 11 Volume and Value of Andapa Exports - 1964/1965 o*...... 51 12 Transporters: Andapa-SambavaRoad 1975 - Revenues & Expenditures by Type of Service & Type of VehiLle .... 54 13 Transporters: Andapa-SambavaRoad 1975 - Average Annual Operating Revenues and Costs per Operator and Vehicle by Gross-Revenue Class of Operator ........... 55 14 AgriculturalProduction and Volume Exported from Andapa: 1965-1975 .................. ............ 58 -0 15 Origin Destination Survey: Types of Vehicles Counted 60 16 Lengths of Trip by Vehicle Type: 1975 o* ..........-...61 17 Traffic Flow by Weekday: 1975 o- ........ ............... 61 18 Freight Transported Along the Road: 1975 ............ o 63 19 Purpose of Passenger Trips: 1975 .... ................ 64 20 Length of Trip by Purpose of Travel: 1975 .......... 65 -2- Table No. Table of Tables Page No. 21 Passenger Flow by Weekday: 1975 .......... *§e..e...o 66 22 Area Cultivated, Yields and Producer Prices for Major Andapa Crops: Percent Increase, 1965, 1974 O.Oo..... 67 23 Cropping Patterns at Farm Level, 1965-1975: Percent of Households Growing Different Crops ............... 68 24 Yields, Distribution of Output and Producer Prices Reported by Sample Households - 1975 . .4oa 69 25 Sample Producer Surplus Dy Crop, 1965, 1975 e...... 72 26 Estimated Area Producer Surplus by Crop - 1975 Without vs. With Project . ... .o_ .......... o0.e.* 73 27 Estimated Transport Costs Savings - 1975 Without vs. With Project .......... .................. 82 28 Economic Rates of Return and First-Year Benefits for Three Project Scenarios ............. ,.. 86 29 Proportion of Disposable Cash Income From Different Income Sources: 1965-1975 .......................... 91 30 Average Household Cash Income and Production Expenditure - By Occupational Group: 1965-1975 ...... 93 31 Average Household Cash Income and Production Expenditure - By Distance Category: 1965-1975 ....... 94 32 Average Household Cash Income and Production Expenditure by Decile - 1965 .........o*... ..... 96 33 Average Household Cash Income and Production Expenditure by Decile - 1975 . 97 34 Per Capita Income by Total Household Income Deciles - 1965 . 99 35 Per Capita Income By Total Household Income Deciles 1975 ........ 00,0 .... 0.e...000000000000. 100 36 Average Per Capita Cash Income and Production Expenditure by Decile: 1965 ........ ....... ...o... 102 37 Average Per Capita Cash Income and Production Expenditure By Decile: 1975 .................... 103 -3- Table No. Table of Tables Page No. 38 Comparative Tncome Decile Status of Panel Households - 1965-1975 .,...... e......o.. ao.eeoecOOO 104 39 Comparative Income Decile Status of Panel House- holds by Professional Group: 1965-1975 .............. 105 40 Average Change of Total Income of Panel Households, 1975 over 1965 - by 1975 Decile and Occupation . eoooo 108 41 Average Change of Disposable Cash Income of Panel Households, 1975 over 1965 - by 1975 Decile and Occupation o............... c. a ... ** .OO*..*OC. e@4*...O. 109 42 Per Capita Income of Panel Farm Households, 1965, 1975 - by Distance Category .o.....0... ..... e e 110 43 Proportion of Consumpt4in Expenditures for Different Types of Goods - 1965-1975 0*00.9-9 ....O .c.*e.... ec 112 44 Proportion of Major Expenditure Categories in Total Household Consumption Expenditure by Occupational Group - 1965-1975 .c.........ec.......... .e........... 114 45 Average per Household Lonsumption Expenditures by Occupational Group: 1965-1975 .... §............. .*.. 115 46 Characteristics of Households by Deciles of Household Consumption Expenditures: 1965 .... eee.. ,cec.... 116 47 Characteristics of Households by Deciles of Household Consumption Expenditures: 1975 ..... e....0.....c..... 117 48 Income Elasticities for Food and Non-Food Consumption by Occupational Group: 1975-1965 ............. ee.,eee 120 49 Income Elasticities for Food and Non-Food Consumption by Occupacional Group: 1975-1965 c..e......e....o e... 121 50 Per Capita Consumption Expenditures by Categories of Expenditures and Deciles - 1965-1975 ... *.......... 123 51 Average Size of Holding and Proportion Planted to Rice
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