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Press Release PRESS RELEASE KBRA Places Negative Outlooks on Global Aircraft Lessor Ratings Due to Coronavirus Challenges and Uncertainties NEW YORK (March 27, 2020) – Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) affirms the ratings of the following commercial aircraft leasing companies and revises their Outlooks to Negative from Stable. • Air Lease Corporation (A- Issuer Rating; A- Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Aviation Capital Group LLC (A- Issuer Rating; A- Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Avolon Holdings Limited (BBB+ Issuer Rating; BBB+ Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) o Park Aerospace Holdings Limited issuances (BBB+ Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) o Avolon Holdings Funding Limited issuances (BBB+ Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd. (BBB+ Issuer Rating; BBB+ Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Fly Leasing Limited (BBB Issuer Rating; BBB- Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Nordic Aviation Capital DAC (BBB+ Issuer Rating; BBB Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) • Voyager Aviation Holdings, LLC (BB- Issuer Rating; B+ Senior Unsecured Debt Rating) This action follows KBRA’s review of the ongoing negative impacts of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on airlines globally and potential secondary effects on lessors. Key Credit Considerations The Negative Outlooks reflect the widespread severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global passenger air traffic which directly affects airlines as lessors’ customers with potential deterioration in lessors’ credit metrics due to rental abatements and the prospects of increased airline defaults, potential impairments and reduced financing availability. While KBRA views the announcement of global aid packages as a welcome relief for airlines, the length and extent of the crisis still remain unpredictable and we believe that the risk to airlines’ cashflow still remains high at least for 2Q20 with some recovery through the end of the year. In recent weeks, airlines globally have seen an unprecedented drop in passenger traffic and revenue, driven by the efforts to limit contagion, including travel restrictions. A significant portion of lessors’ airline customers have asked for some sort of rental relief. While, so far, only a small percentage of requests has been granted, KBRA expects the numbers will increase as lessors provide some support to their credit worthy customers. In addition, with current travel restrictions and depressed demand, lessors would face more challenges repossessing and remarketing aircraft in the case of customer defaults, a historical strength of the business model. The decline in demand caused by COVID-19 is unprecedented, with air passenger traffic down approximately 50% globally in March year-on-year according to The International Air Transport Association (IATA). IATA projects that airline passenger revenues could decline by $252 billion or 44% in 2020 compared to 2019. This scenario assumes that severe travel restrictions last for up to three months, followed by a gradual economic recovery later in 2020. The duration of this pandemic and economic impact is difficult to predict, but KBRA believes significant sovereign support will likely be necessary to avoid widespread airline defaults. KBRA views its investment grade-rated aircraft lessors as generally well-capitalized and having sufficient liquidity to withstand near-term reductions in lease cash flows while managing fixed costs including debt maturities and committed capex obligations. In addition, KBRA believes these lessors are adequately capitalized to withstand minor to moderate level of impairments. However, in KBRA’s view, the widespread nature and severe impact of COVID-19 on passenger travel has the potential to stress lessors’ financial health. KBRA recognizes that some governments have committed to supporting their national carriers. The allocation and form of this support globally is currently unknown and will likely differ across countries / regions where lessors have differing exposures. In addition, government fiscal and monetary policy action taken to mitigate the broad economic impact of COVID-19 may improve prospects of an economic recovery and rebound in passenger demand once COVID-19 cases decline and travel restrictions are lifted. However, PRESS RELEASE given limited visibility to recovery timing and visible severe impacts to the aviation industry, KBRA believes Negative Outlooks are warranted. ESG Considerations KBRA’s ratings incorporate all material credit factors including those that relate to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. While ESG factors may influence ratings, it is important to underscore that KBRA’s ratings do not incorporate value-based judgments. Throughout our analysis, KBRA captures the impact of ESG factors in the same manner as all other credit-relevant factors. More information on ESG Considerations for the Aviation sector can be found here. There were no ESG factors that had significant impact on this rating analysis. Air Lease Corporation Key Credit Considerations The affirmation of Air Lease’s ratings is driven by the company’s highly experienced management team, wide and diverse customer base, a significant portion of which either have government ownerships or are flag carriers, and strong financial fundamentals, as reflected by a low leverage strategy, strong profitability, liquidity and cash-flow metrics, and largely unencumbered asset base. In addition, Air Lease’s young and in-demand fleet is less prone to impairment risks. In KBRA’s view, Air Lease’s significant liquidity of $6 billion in undrawn committed revolving credit facility plus over $300 million in unrestricted cash is sufficient to withstand a significant reduction in rental revenue as a result of rent abatements, delinquencies or airline bankruptcies and meet debt obligations as well as its significant purchase obligations in the next 12 months. It’s worth noting that ALC has raised $1.4 billion debt in January 2020. Furthermore, Air Lease’s large unencumbered asset base can provide additional liquidity in times of stress. Rating Sensitivities A ratings upgrade in the near future is not expected. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Stable if declines in coronavirus cases combined with lifting of travel restrictions in the near-term leads to significant recovery in global passenger traffic towards pre-pandemic levels. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Watch Downgrade or the ratings could be downgraded if air traffic remains significantly depressed beyond 2Q20 and leads to increased delinquencies, defaults and/or impairments, or a decline in funding availability with significant negative impacts on profitability, capital and/or liquidity metrics. A notable increase in the company’s asset encumbrance could also trigger a review for downgrade. Aviation Capital Group LLC (ACG) Key Credit Considerations The affirmation of ACG’s ratings is based on the company’s long and stable profitable track record, experienced management team, well-diversified customer base, focus on highly liquid in-demand aircraft, adequate liquidity and a conservative debt to tangible equity leverage at 2.0x as at December 31, 2020. ACG’s near-term maturity of $600 million due October 2020 as well as its modest purchase obligations of $1.4 billion in 2020 is well supported by its undrawn committed revolving credit facility of over $1.9 billion and unrestricted cash of $340 million even if there is a significant reduction in rental income. ACG’s largely unencumbered asset base can also provide additional liquidity if need be. Rating Sensitivities A ratings upgrade in the near future is not expected. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Stable if declines in coronavirus cases combined with lifting of travel restrictions in the near-term leads to a significant recovery in global passenger traffic towards pre-pandemic levels. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Watch Downgrade or the ratings could be downgraded if air traffic remains significantly depressed beyond 2Q20 and leads to increased delinquencies, defaults and/or impairments, or a decline in funding availability PRESS RELEASE with significant negative impacts on profitability, capital and/or liquidity metrics. A notable increase in the company’s asset encumbrance could also trigger a review for downgrade. Avolon Holdings Limited Key Credit Considerations The affirmation of Avolon’s ratings reflects the company’s leading market position, seasoned management team, well-diversified lessee base, strong credit metrics including low leverage, strong profitability, and abundant liquidity. The company’s over $5 billion undrawn committed credit facilities along with $688 million of cash as of December 31, 2019 is sufficient to meet its limited debt obligations (amortizing debt) and its $4 billion purchase obligations in 2020, should there be a significant drop in operating cash flows. In addition, Avolon has made significant progress in unencumbering its balance sheet, which can provide addition funding flexibility. Rating Sensitivities A ratings upgrade in the near future is not expected. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Stable if declines in coronavirus cases combined with lifting of travel restrictions in the near-term leads to a significant recovery in global passenger traffic towards pre-pandemic levels. The Negative Outlook could be revised to Watch Downgrade or the ratings could be downgraded if air traffic remains significantly depressed beyond 2Q20 and leads to increased delinquencies, defaults and/or impairments, or a decline in funding availability
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