MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Vol. 59, No. 7, July 2013, pp. 1479–1495 ISSN 0025-1909 (print) ISSN 1526-5501 (online) http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1657 © 2013 INFORMS The Loser’s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft Cade Massey The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104,
[email protected] Richard H. Thaler Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637,
[email protected] question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgment Aand decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strong economic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest that teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research. Key words: overconfidence; judgment under uncertainty; efficient market hypothesis; organizational studies; decision making History: Received August 9, 2011; accepted August 31, 2012, by Uri Gneezy, behavioral economics. Published online in Articles in Advance March 18, 2013.