FederationsFederations w h at ’ S n e w i n F e d e r a l i SM wo r l dw i d e 2010

SPECIAL issue The place of federalism in a renewed

northern Sudan could reorganize - even without the South

interview: deputy governor of forumfed.org ages ages m etty I etty G / AFP / Y ZL SHA

ASHRAF

2010 Sudan Special Issue

Sudanese men ride their camels towards pyramids in the Meroe desert, north of .

Board of Directors Federations Vijay Kelkar, Chairman (India); A publication of the Forum of Federations Abay Tsehaye Abay (Ethiopia); Alexander Alvaro (European Union); Ken Boessenkool (Canada); Kim Campbell (Canada); SENIOR EDITOR Rod Macdonell John de Chastelain (Canada); Walter Fust (Switzerland); Associate Editor Carl Stieren Ramón Galindo (Mexico); Julius Ihonvbere (Nigeria); special issue editor Shawn Houlihan (Addis Ababa) Wolf Linder (Switzerland); Georg Milbradt (Germany); LAYOUT Shannon Elliot and Yani Roumeliotis Johanne Poirier (Canada); Vicente Carlos y Plá Trevas (Brazil); Arabic Translation Maha Bustami, Maha Takla, Roger Wilkins (Australia). Nadia Nouri ARABIC REVISIONS: Farah Kawtharani Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Copy Editor Robert Winters Forum of Federations Editorial Assistant Rita Champagne 325 Dalhousie, Suite 700 Federations is published annually by the Forum of Ottawa, Ontario K1N 7G2 Canada Federations. Tel: 613- 244-3360 Fax: 613-244-3372 [email protected] www.forumfed.org This special edition of Federations magazine was produced by the Forum of Federations as part of its two-year governance Canada Post Publications program in Sudan, a program funded by the Canadian Mail Agreement Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. no. 40745010 Federations m oru F to the the to l a ci pe S / z e i haf l de Ab . .

Sudan Special Issue A

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Cover: Introduction 2 Sudan Post-2011 By Shawn Houlihan

6 SPecial edition ages m 6 abundant lessons for Sudan from abroad By Richard Simeon & Marie-joËlle zahar etty I etty G / AFP /

Y 10 amid fears of secession, new visions of Sudan emerge ZL By Hafiz Ismail Mohamed SHA

ASHRAF 13 what Sudan might look like after 2011 By Jalal Abdel-Latif & Seifulaziz Lamin Milas Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (right) 16 interview: Deputy Governor Abdel Aziz al-Hilu welcomes Salva Kiir, of Southern Kordofan who heads Sudan’s former rebel Sudan 19 Southern Sudan faces challenges after referendum People’s Liberation By TODD DUSENBERY Movement, as Sudan’s First Vice President at a 21 northern Sudan could reorganize - even without the South swearing-in ceremony By Omer Awadalla Ali in Khartoum on May 29, 2010. 24 Sharing the wealth: oil for Sudan’s development by george anderson 27 Lessons learned from By jaap de visser 30 Building new institutions interviews with gordon soro and amna abbaker Sudan Special issue Sudan post-2011 Federal systems are likely in referendum aftermath. Federations

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ah m ll da /Issa Ab m n n i d SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 oru l F ure N to the the to ed ed l m a ci pe S /Moha REUTERS Sudan, North and South: Kamal Hassan (left) from the ruling National Congress Party, and Luka Biong from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, sit side by side at a session of the and the Sudan Consultative Forum in Khartoum in 2010.

by shawn houlihan Sudan. Residents of two border states, ture for Sudan, with a highly Southern Kordofan and , which autonomous Government of Southern ore than two decades of are within the north but where many Sudan governed mainly by the SPLM civil war in Sudan ended fought alongside the SPLM, will hold and a Government of National Unity in on Jan. 9, 2005, with the “Popular Consultations” to determine Khartoum with the two signing parties s i g n i n g o f t h e their status; and another border region, sharing control of the central Comprehensive Peace , will also stage a referendum on government. Agreement by Sudan’s two whether to join . Whatever the result of the Southern M dominant political forces: referendum, it is likely that a form of fed- the ruling National Congress Party and Making unity attractive eralism, or some elements of federalism, the Sudan People’s Liberation The pre-referendum period from 2005 to will be part of government in both the Movement (SPLM), which heads the 2010 was designed by the drafters of the north and the south of Sudan in all sce- government in Southern Sudan. agreement as a period in which all actors narios that may emerge after 2011. T h e C o m p r e h e n s i v e P e a c e would work to “make unity attractive” – It is in this context that the Forum of Agreement, known as the CPA, is an that is, to give one more chance to show Federations is publishing this special extensive, detailed, 241-page document. that a united Sudan can work, especially edition of Federations magazine. Our But it is fair to say that the centrepiece of for Southerners. aim is not to advocate for federalism or a the agreement is the promise of a refer- In addition to providing for a referen- particular brand of federalism. It is to endum in which Southern Sudanese will dum for the South, the CPA is essentially provide a neutral and authoritative con- decide in early 2011 whether to become a power- and wealth-sharing agreement. tribution to the debate and to inform the fully independent or stay in a united It created an asymmetrical federal struc- public about federal ideas and the accompanying challenges in Sudan (and Shawn Houlihan is the Director of Africa Programs at the Forum of Federations in Addis its component parts) under any of the Ababa.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue scenarios and political configurations that one order of government cannot federalism for Sudan on the one hand that may emerge in 2011. usurp another’s powers, which differen- and its apparent non-readiness to make Although federalism seldom makes tiates it from decentralized unitary it work on the other – that haunts Sudan headlines, it is an essential part of gov- systems where powers can be given and and those who are working toward a ernment in some countries on every taken away according to the central gov- durable peace for all Sudanese. continent of the world. More than 40 per ernment’s wishes. This contradiction is also a reason cent of the world’s population lives in Comparative studies show that fed- many argue that Sudan (or any of its federal or federal-type systems of gover- eral countries have found many creative future configurations) should remain nance. This includes some of the world’s and effective combinations of constitu- relatively centralized rather than being more prosperous and long-standing tional and institutional arrangements federal. This argument can be refuted in , such as Australia, that fit different countries’ political, two parts. First, centralized governance Switzerland and the United States. social and economic needs and even has utterly failed over several decades More recently several countries have their historical circumstances. and under various regimes in Sudan. adopted federal systems as a means to But federalism does not solve all Second, The more nuanced answer is Federations end a long conflict. Some of these cases, problems. One eminent scholar, that there is no contradiction between a such as Ethiopia, seem to be succeeding, Professor Richard Simeon, refers to the federal system and strong central powers 3 while others, like Czechoslovakia, have “prerequisites” that are needed to make in certain key spheres of governance, or failed. For some, such as Iraq and Nepal, it is too early to tell.

Sudan has reasons for federalism When one looks at the reasons that coun- tries become federal, Sudan has many of the requisite characteristics or features,

such as: m oru • Large geographic territory: Many F

large countries, such as Australia, Brazil, the to l a ci

Canada, India, Russia, and the United SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 pe S / z e

States, are federations. i haf • Ethnic, linguistic and religious diver- l de Ab sity, such as in the federations of . A

Belgium, Canada, Ethiopia, India, m Nigeria, and Switzerland. Sudan, with a Issa Residents of Blue Nile State gather in the city of Damazin. Blue Nile state is where the population of about 42 million, has 597 Roseires Dam, the main source of hydroelectric power in Sudan, has been built. ethnic groups that speak 115 dialects. • Distrust about any over-concentra- tion of power which federalism diffuses federalism work: , constitu- options for shared jurisdiction. The chal- by guaranteeing power in numerous tionalism and rule of law, trust and lenge then, is to design a system that fits centres, and not just the national capital, consensus, a common set of shared the nation’s particular needs. which was one of the main driving forces interests, respect for minorities, admin- Federalism has met with mixed suc- behind the creation of the world’s oldest istrative capacities at all levels, fiscal cess as a tool to resolve conflict. federation, the USA. resources at all levels and power sharing This point is argued in the article by • Prolonged conflict among different at the centre. Richard Simeon and Marie-Joëlle Zahar. communities within a centralized coun- They emphasize that whatever the refer- try, which has had the effect of eroding Not every prerequisite necessary endum outcome in Southern Sudan in national solidarity over time. But given Prof. Simeon’s several prereq- 2011, North and South will still be inter- In such countries federalism is seen uisites some may conclude that connected – geographically, socially, as the better option because it allows a federalism is not within the reach of ecologically, and economically (espe- nation to unite or to stay together for the Sudan. The more optimistic view, how- cially due to a shared oil pipeline). reasons it should or wants to (centripetal ever, is that these prerequisites do not Indeed, properly preparing and man- forces) while providing sufficient auton- need to be perfect at the outset, and usu- aging the referendum is just as important omy for its different parts to control ally take time to evolve; and it may even as the result. those areas where there are differences be that a federal political bargain will Although many expect that the peo- (centrifugal forces). This is called bal- indeed provide the opportunity to ple of Southern Sudan will vote for ancing shared rule at the centre with self reverse past cycles of conflict.C ertainly separation, Simeon and Zahar, like many rule for the state or provinces, in certain this is the underlying rationale behind others, emphasize that Southerners spheres of governance. Sudan’s 2005 peace agreement. should be cautious about expecting Certainly, an essential feature of fed- It is this core contradiction – between independence to solve all their problems. eralism is the constitutional guarantee the potential and central relevance of Southern Sudan’s independence will not

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

be a silver bullet that cures its daunting governance, weak capacity and internal agreement was flawed because although shortcomings and deficits in capacity, strife, neither has unity. it was designed to be “comprehensive,” it governance and internal unity nor will it Hafiz also puts a sobering emphasis did not include major legitimate opposi- bring about the delivery of basic services on the weaknesses of traditional tion parties like the Umma and DUP. It so needed by the ordinary people. Northern political parties, mainly the also failed to address the grievances of Umma and the Democratic Unionist other peripheral regions like . Experiences of others useful Party (DUP), in delivering a durable Jalal Abdel-Latif of the United Nations They also note other recent examples of solution to the Sudan problem in the first Economic Commission for Africa, and federal experiments, and highlight the few decades of independence, when co-author Seifulaziz Lamin Milas, who key positive role that neighbours and they were dominant in the country. has worked with UN bodies throughout international partners can play, espe- Whatever their record, these impor- cially in providing security and tant political forces have become economic incentives. Their article calls progressively weaker during the current on Sudanese policy-makers to benefit regime of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, which Federations from the useful lessons and warnings came to power in a military coup in 1989 that other post-conflict federal experi- and has run the country since. 4 ences can provide. Strong and democratic alternatives Certainly the impact of the referen- have yet to emerge after all this time. This dum will be felt far beyond the South. is the seminal fact of Sudan and goes far There will likely be a domino effect of to explain why the 2005 peace agreement unknown proportions in the Northern has failed to make unity attractive, why “peripheral” regions of the country, Southerners will likely vote to secede which also want a different, more genu- and why political forces in other periph- inely federal-type relationship with the eral regions of the North are nervous central government in Khartoum. about the viability of genuine political As Hafiz Mohammed and many other negotiations in the foreseeable future. observers note, the Sudan problem is not

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 just about the strife between north and South Kordofan concerned south. It is a long-standing conflict This latter point is a major feature of the between the centre and the periphery, in interview with Abdel Aziz, the deputy- which all regions, most of them predomi- governor of Southern Kordofan, of the nantly Muslim, feel alienated from and Southern People’s Liberation Movement. oppressed by the centre. He expresses strong concern that if Hafiz Mohammed draws out the elu- Southern Sudan separates, his state will Members of the Berta tribe perform using sive challenge for Sudan since lose a political counterbalance that the their traditional instrument, called a waza, independence in 1956 – that is, why SPLM has provided vis-à-vis the ruling in Damazin, Blue Nile State. Sudan has about 600 ethnic groups that speak about Sudan and its political elites have persis- National Congress Party (NCP) during 115 dialects. tently failed to find a political the CPA period – a loss that will weaken arrangement that offers minimal stabil- the forces who want to hold the NCP ity to the people and a basis for them to more accountable for negotiating in Africa, write about the failure of Sudan’s experience inclusive nation building. good faith and delivering on promises, political forces to deliver a viable vision As a Northerner, Hafiz recognizes that the most important of which is a func- or consensus on how to deal with Khartoum has failed to “make unity tioning system of fiscal transfers to his Sudan’s diversities. attractive” to the South, which was the state from Khartoum. They also observe that two other core objective for the Comprehensive Abdel Aziz makes a case for stronger African federations, Ethiopia and Nigeria, Peace Agreement. Generally, he notes, state powers than the CPA currently pro- have to varying degrees come to grips the promised democratic transforma- vides his state, many of which are with the risks of identity-based politics tion has not taken place, as was commonly enjoyed in other federations, and faith-based extremism, and have witnessed in the conduct and results of while highlighting the paradox of need- certainly succeeded more so than Sudan. the 2010 elections, which were roundly ing a viable partner to work with in order They suggest that at this point, the criticized and condemned. to make any improved system work. This most pressing concern is that there be Hafiz points to the Government of was intended but has not been the case adequate preparation for the final stages Southern Sudan for its failure to deliver in the five years of the peace agreement. of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and its serious limitations to govern itself. He concludes that if the Khartoum gov- which will soon expire. Thorny matters Most observers are aware of the risks of ernment is not willing to genuinely need to be addressed, they contend, separation. It can perhaps be concluded deliver real wealth and power sharing, among which are border demarcation, that while independence will not solve the country will not hold together. citizenship and preparation for the vari- the South’s problems of pervasive pov- Sobering words. ous referenda soon to be held, in order to erty, underdevelopment, poor Several authors note that the peace ensure that the votes meet international

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue standards, thereby conferring legitimacy The article by the Forum’s Sudan developing nations. If the people of on the outcomes. Program Manager, Todd Dusenbery, Southern Sudan vote to separate, their Dr. Omer Awadalla also notes that the reflects on his 16 months in Sudan. It government will be the world’s most oil- aspirations of all regions of Sudan are at deals with issues and options facing dependent with 98 per cent of its stake in 2011. But federal arrangements Southern Sudan after the 2011 referen- revenues coming from oil. This depen- deserve more attention whatever the dum. His points are relevant whatever dence is unhealthy and one that results of the main event, which is the the referendum’s result . He notes that Southern Sudan must handle carefully. referendum to be held in Southern the five years of the peace agreement in The Forum has produced a compre- Sudan, scheduled for January 2011. Southern Sudan has implemented some hensive study on the lessons learned by Dr. Awadalla poses some useful and basic federal, decentralized governance; other federations in managing oil wealth but many basic features of a functioning that the Sudanese can draw upon to political system, such as delivery of basic ensure that the legacy of this natural services to the people, are yet to materi- endowment will become a positive force alize, or be up to expectations. for development and good governance, Federations rather than run real risk that the opposite Where federalism offers solutions will happen, and it become a curse. 5 He goes through a very useful list of clas- Our article by the South Africa-based sic federalism-related policy issues that expert, Jaap de Visser, on federalism and Southern Sudanese should consider. His decentralization, presents some weighty list includes clarifying and putting in lessons from other parts of Africa as well place effective intergovernmental as insights into how to compare, weigh accountability and coordination of ser- and interpret the applicability of differ- vice delivery, fiscal arrangements, ent countries’ experiences to Sudan. determining the number and criteria for De Visser drives home lessons from constituting states, management of natu- what he calls the emerging “hub of inno- m oru

F ral resources, cross-border matters, and vation and experimentation with various clarifying the status of Juba, the capital of homespun models of federalism and to the the to l a ci Southern Sudan, among others. In 2011, decentralization” in Africa. Clearly, deal- SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 pe S /

z Southern Sudan will likely go from a fed- ing with diversity is crucial in Sudan as in e i haf

l eration within a federation (that is, most African countries, and he com- de

Ab within the rest of Sudan) to becoming pares the very different models adopted . . A

m some form of federal, or federal-like, by South Africa and Ethiopia in their Issa country of its own. respective political contexts. fundamental questions about reforms The coming months will require that could be considered under the vari- Southern leaders to face and clarify Good relations needed ous scenarios that may emerge in early some fundamental issues about the form Whatever the basic political model, dem- 2011. He notes the centrality of of government for Southern Sudan that ocratic federalism requires a respect for determining: will deliver the goods to the people, and political pluralism, especially for the • the basis or criteria on which states build a new national unity in a highly rights of other political parties to run dif- are constituted, diverse and often divided society. After ferent levels of government. De Visser • the number of states a country the referendum, the south might lose its also emphasizes the need for effective should be composed of, and main inspiration for unity, namely the intergovernmental relations – a lesson • the impact of states’ configuration common enemy in the North. well understood in Southern Sudan (even on promoting a healthy federal system Deep-rooted conflicts like those of if the solutions remain to be decided), that manages diversity but also ensures Sudan often entail a toxic mix of identity and the importance of addressing the national unity. conflict with clashes over control of nat- need for massive administrative capacity Dr. Awadalla also formulates a pro- ural resources. This has certainly been building without which decentralized posal for the rotation of the position of the case in Sudan especially since oil was governance can only remain an empty among the major regions discovered in the late 1970s inside and promise. of Sudan. His view is that the symbolism around the border between North and Whatever the results of the referen- of this position is important in Sudanese South Sudan. The effective use of oil rev- dum in Southern Sudan, the year 2011 political culture and would help make enues has been a challenge in other promises to be critical for the 42 million the major regional groups feel as if they oil-rich countries in Africa. people of Sudan, who in all corners of the are equal partners of the nation. A simi- George Anderson, the president of country, yearn to finally experience peace, lar proposal is advanced by Southern the Forum, iterates many lessons and stability and development. Federal ideas Kordofan’s Deputy Governor, Abdel Aziz, examples that Sudan can consider from and options could be critical and must be in this issue. It is a good example of the other oil-rich federations. addressed – in all their potential and limi- out-of-the-box thinking that Sudan will Having vast oil reserves is often con- tations – by the Sudanese peoples and by need in the coming months. sidered a blessing and a curse for the international community.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

Abundant lessons for Sudan from abroad The referendum must be ‘free, fair and peaceful’ to succeed. Federations

6 SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 ah ll ada j ed ed m / ah / REUTERS A referendum in South Sudan scheduled for January 2011 will determine whether Sudan remains a united federal country with autonomy for the South or if Southern Sudan becomes independent. In this photo, workers in the April 2010 general elections empty boxes of ballots.

by richard simeon and marie-joËlle zahar

ederalism – or closely locales as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) related forms of decentral- Ethiopia, South Africa, Nepal and the and to the Interim ization – is perhaps the Sudan. Over the course of history, the that brought an end to decades of civil most widely recommended record of federalism has been mixed in war, and which has maintained an political form for the effec- terms of its ability to stave off separatist uneasy peace since then. tive management and tendencies; there are lessons to be The CPA sought to address the per- accommodationF of conflict in deeply learned for all Sudanese about the suc- ception that the North had imposed its divided societies. cesses and failures of other federal Arab and Muslim identity on the rest of It is no surprise then that it has and is experiments. the country, as well as the feeling that being increasingly used in such diverse Federalism is central to the 2005 Sudan’s resources had not been used to benefit development in all of its regions, resulting in deep inequalities and a sense Richard Simeon is professor of political science and law at the University of Toronto. of marginalization. These centre-periph- Marie-Joëlle Zahar is professor of political science at the Université de Montréal . ery grievances extend to all regions, forumfed.org Sudan Special issue some of which are addressed in the CPA Africa or elsewhere. failed in meeting its central goals: usher- Protocols (Abyei, Southern Kordafan and Nevertheless, the outcome is not cer- ing in democratic transformation and Blue Nile), and some of which are not tain. The regime in Khartoum has making unity attractive to the South. (such as Darfur and Eastern Sudan). attempted and still is attempting, to pro- Observers generally agreed that the fed- While the CPA has been much vide incentives, material and otherwise, eral elements in the CPA have not been maligned, it certainly provided the South for southern leaders to vote for contin- effectively honoured. with a needed degree of autonomy and ued unity of North and Southern Sudan. Five years after the CPA was signed, control over its own affairs while at the Also weighing on the unity side of the critics point to discrepancies between same time setting up power- and ledger are considerations of capacity. the text of the Interim National resource-sharing structures between Experience elsewhere has shown that Constitution and the laws on the books North and South. This was set out in the the act of declaring independence does in Sudan, to the flawed elections process twin structures of the Government of not solve all problems. Countries need of April 2010, and to actions such as the South Sudan (GoSS) and the human and material resources to run a restriction of NGO activities, as proof of Government of National Unity (GNU). It new nation and meet the expectations of the lack of political will by the governing Federations also provided for renewed relations their citizens. National Congress Party to make the CPA between Khartoum and the Northern That lesson was learned the hard way work. Critics also note the difficulties 7 States. in East Timor; it was also front and centre faced by the SPLM in governing the The agreement called for new in debates about the independence of South and their impact in terms of mis- national elections in 2010 and, most criti- Kosovo. In the first case, capacity to management and corruption. cally, for a referendum in 2011 on the deliver government services was lacking; Implementation failures usually question of secession for Southern in the second instance, Kosovo lacked a strengthen the case for separation. Sudan. The referendum is rapidly sufficiently strong economy to sustain Serbia’s unwillingness to provide mean- approaching, raising several important the needs of a nascent state. ingful autonomy to Kosovo contributed questions: to Kosovo’s decision to seek indepen- A flawed process dence. Secession might be inevitable but • What lessons can be learned There are other factors to consider as the lesson from the CPA and those of from other federations regarding well. Southern political forces are similar processes worldwide highlight

the critical issue of keeping a divided and some are concerned about the importance of a free and fair process. SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 country united? the potential ambitions of the governing • How has the CPA fared in this Sudan People’s Liberation Movement A free and fair process? respect so far? (SPLM) to dominate the political land- Like the flaws of other agreements before • What lessons do other referenda scape, which are comparable to the it, the CPA experience has failed to make processes hold for the 2011 refer- regional tensions created by Kurdistan’s unity desirable to many in South Sudan. endum in South Sudan? dreams of independence from Turkey. However, the comparative lessons of • If the South votes for indepen- In Africa, several neighbouring coun- East Timor and Kosovo highlight the dence, what are the possible tries in a highly divided region might well importance of avoiding flaws in the refer- relationships between a newly object to an independent South endum process itself. Local and independent South and the rest In considering this regional dimen- international reactions to the outcome of Sudan following a sion, the problems faced by Kosovo in its may depend on it being free, fair and referendum? efforts to seek recognition of its indepen- peaceful. • What role might federalism play dence highlight the importance of being But equally important will be to have in the new entities – in a reconsti- recognized by other countries as an prior agreement about the rules that will tuted northern Sudan and an independent state to fully access the govern the referendum. These are ques- independent South? resources of the international system. tions that Canadians had to confront The international community has during and after the 1995 Quebec refer- This short article draws on comparative overwhelmingly accepted the South’s endum on sovereignty. How will the evidence from other post-conflict feder- right to secede as stipulated in the CPA. question be worded? How high is the bar ations to address these questions. Whatever Southerners decide, they will – is 50 per cent plus one enough? need to focus as much or more on the Should the majority of the popula- Possible Referendum Outcomes formidable new challenges they will face tion, which lives outside South Sudan, According to outside observers and once they have independence, including have any voice in the outcome? If so, some in the leadership of the govern- the management of federal-decentral- how? How is the process to be managed ment of South Sudan, the indication is ization within the South, as discussed in a way that both sides consider fair – a that an overwhelming majority in the below. critical element in establishing the legiti- South is strongly in favour of indepen- The impending referendum in South macy of the result? dence. This seems to be deeply rooted in Sudan will be driven by how people ulti- Other questions are of greater rele- the conflict-riven history of North-South mately assess the results of the 2005 vance to Sudan, such as where to draw relations. It would not be the first time Comprehensive Peace Agreement the new borders? There is no consensus that federal arrangements have failed, in (CPA). This flawed process has all but on this in the so-called “Three Protocol

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Federations

8 SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 ) S MI UN ka ( ka l ku mc

im / t / REUTERS People displaced from oil-rich Abyei area line up for emergency food rations. There will be a separate referendum in Abyei on whether to join Southern Sudan.

areas” – South Kordofan, Blue Nile and disputed between Arabs and Kurds, is the next day? Do two autonomous, inde- Abyei. It is far better to agree on the bor- still undecided. Its resolution will weigh pendent entities spring into existence ders before the referendum rather than heavily in the success or failure of Iraq’s instantaneously? Of course not. A new to fight about them afterward. federal experiment. set of issues arise. Similarly with oil and gas, significant In Bosnia, control over the district of The current government of Sudan is a production potential is precisely in the Brcko was long contested between the power-sharing arrangement and contested areas. Oil produced in the Republika Srpska and the Bosno-Croat Southerners play a major role in the South needs to be transported through Federation. Its fate was ultimately national government. Do these power- the North to a distribution point on the decided by arbitration but many people sharing links instantly come to an end? . Again, a peaceful referendum on the Serb side see this decision as a What happens to the many from the result will be much more likely if prior violation of the Dayton Peace South living and working in Khartoum agreement is reached on this potentially Agreement, which ended the Bosnian today? What happens to Northerners liv- contentious question. As the history of civil war in 1995. ing in the South? Ethiopian-Eritrean relations shows, fail- More fundamentally, what rules will ure to resolve these issues ahead of time Post-referendum relationships govern the nomadic groups of herders will only feed tensions and increase the What is to be avoided for Sudan is a con- who have been accustomed to moving likelihood of interstate conflict. tested referendum outcome combined with their cattle across what will now Sudan is not alone in facing such cru- with a long list of unresolved issues. That become national borders? How will the cial decisions. In Iraq, the fate of the would be a recipe for renewed civil war. two new countries join others in manag- Kirkuk governorate, one of the country’s Assume a massive victory for seces- ing the water of the Nile basin? richest oil-producing areas and a region sion in the referendum. What happens The list of issues that will need to be

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue negotiated is long and complex. And conflict on the ability of member states to and Unity States by dissident members these negotiations are likely to take place reach their developmental goals and of the SPLM. in an atmosphere of high tension. address humanitarian suffering in Since the 2005 peace agreement, the Therefore, there is all the more reason to Eastern Africa. South has had considerable autonomy in solve as many of them as possible prior the framework of the CPA and through to the referendum vote. Federalism in a post-referendum the institutions of the Government of And if these issues can be resolved, Sudan South Sudan. But the Southern regime there will still be the question of building If the federal option fails in keeping a faces serious human, material and finan- institutions that will manage the rela- country as deeply divided as Sudan cial capacity challenges. Its ability to tionship into the future. intact, what are the possibilities for fed- function as an effective government is Some of the lessons of intergovernmen- eral arrangements in the two separate very much in question. It will require tal relations in functioning federations may countries? enormous international help to avoid be useful in managing relations becoming a failed state immedi- between separate but interdepen- ately following its establishment as Federations dent countries. Here, the recent a state. lessons of the Balkans may be “Decentralization Decentralization and federal- 9 useful. ization may prove a feasible Even after the dismember- solution for the South, but its ment of the former Yugoslavia, design - acknowledging ethnic dif- following the international com- and federaliza- ferences, almost unparalleled lack munity intervention for conflict of government capacity to deliver resolution and post-conflict services, the powerful role of tradi- reconstruction in Bosnia, Croatia tional leaders and the presence of and, later on, Serbia, regional tion may prove a many nomadic groups – will links were inescapable. require re-thinking many tradi- Rebuilding of what are now tional ideas about the design of inter-state links was facilitated in federal institutions. Unfortunately, SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 that case by the Stability Pact for feasible solution in this regard, there is little if any South Eastern Europe. This pact guidance from other experiences. joined the Balkan states and South Africa provides one exam- neighbouring countries with the ple, having recently established United States and European for the South” Houses of Traditional Leaders, giv- Union member countries as sup- ing them some voice in governance porting partners in 1999. This at the national and, especially, at initiative was launched as a conflict pre- Both are regionally and ethnically local levels. It is however too early to tell vention strategy aimed at stabilizing, divided. In the North, considerable whether this will suffice to reconcile for- bringing peace, stimulating economic regional tensions persist. Many of the mal and informal institutions of power. recovery and strengthening democracy Northern regions chafe under rule from In Iraq, the role of tribes is increasingly and improving human rights. The Pact Khartoum and seek greater autonomy. acknowledged but there is no clear sense provided a framework to stimulate Secession in the South will have confirmed of whether and how to integrate them in regional co-operation and expedite inte- their worst fears about federalism – that it formal structures of governance. gration into European and Euro-Atlantic fuels secessionist tendencies and can lead The core lesson to be learned is that structures. to a slippery slope of disintegration. federalism has worked in diverse and While there are no immediate equiva- Will there be strong forces toward a deeply divided societies throughout the lents in Africa, the role of the African centralist approach in the reconstituted world, but finding a distinctive design to Union and the involvement of neigh- North? Or will the political leaders in match a country’s needs, and a genuine bouring states will undoubtedly Khartoum learn a lesson that for federal- commitment to those unique power and contribute to shaping the post-seces- ism to serve in building unity requires a wealth-sharing arrangements, is critical. sion landscape. The Intergovernmental stronger commitment to political plural- Less than one year remains before the Authority on Development (IGAD) could ism and power sharing than has been referendum and what happens between also be considered as an important experienced during the CPA? now and then will critically affect the regional player in this respect. IGAD pro- It could be a different story in the result. But comparative experiences offer vides an already functioning forum for South. It too is deeply divided and, useful lessons and warnings that regional collaboration on common according to reports, was the site of Sudanese policy-makers on both sides of developmental objectives. It also recog- mounting violence in 2009. There have this issue ought to consider carefully. nizes the impact of insecurity and already been three rebellions in Jonglei

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Amid fears of secession, new visions of Sudan emerge Disputes between centre and regions need fixing.

A priest welcomes a Muslim guest Federations at a dinner organized by Sudanese Coptic Christians in Khartoum at the 10 end of Ramadan in August 2010. ah ll da b n a n i d l ed nure ed m oha SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 m / / REUTERS

by Hafiz Ismail Mohamed the 2005 peace agreement or negotiate a agreement (as well as the Darfur and different relationship with Khartoum. eastern Sudan Peace Agreements). As the Southern referendum will be he Elusive challenge for Sudan decisive for the future of Sudan, it there- These conflicts are interlinked, and, since independence in 1956 fore receives the most attention. But all as federalism was introduced to the has been to establish a nation- these developments, the referendum in country’s interim constitution as a possi- wide political accommodation South Sudan, the referendum in Abyei ble solution for Sudan, it is useful to that is democratic and inclu- and the popular consultations in consider the conflicts in terms of the sive of its diversity, or its many Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile will strengths and limitations of federalism T diversities, whether they are have a profound effect on the future of to remedy the root causes of these religious, ethnic or geographic. Africa’s largest country. conflicts. The months before January 2011 are To understand in what direction, or It should be recalled that the North crucial for the country and its people. If indeed directions, Sudan may go after and South were two separate entities the voters of Southern Sudan choose 2011, it is necessary to understand how under colonial rule. Even historically, independence in the upcoming referen- we got to where we are today politically. the relationship between North and dum, and barring any major last-minute As even casual observers know, South was not a happy one. In the last deals or severe outbreak of violence, Sudan and her myriad conflicts are years before independence in 1956, Southern Sudan will secede. extremely complex. The Sudan problem the North and South were governed As well, the 2005 Comprehensive is best understood from four points of quite separately under the Peace Agreement calls for a referendum view: Condominium Agreement by Egypt and in Abyei (on whether it is to be part of the Britain, respectively. South or North) and so-called Popular • so-called North-South conflict; While the South became increasingly Consultations in the northern states of • broader centre-periphery conflict; Christian, it remained extremely under- Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, on • intra-South conflicts; developed, while in the North the small, whether to accept arrangements under • recent experience of the 2005 Peace so-called Khartoum-based “Arab elite” dominated the state and thus controlled Hafiz Ismail Mohamed is Sudan program director with Justice Africa Sudan, an NGO that the resources in all regions of the coun- offers capacity building support to Sudanese civil society organizations. Mohamed provides try. The elites were influenced strategic analysis on the social, economic and political situation in many African countries. ideologically by Arab nationalism that He has a bachelor of arts from the Institute of Banking and Finance Studies in Khartoum. had spread from Egypt and elsewhere. forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

vision, known as “New Sudan,” which explicitly recognized and pursued the secularization and democratization of the whole country, an approach which attracted significant political and mili- tary support outside of the South, especially in the border areas of the Nuba Mountains (Southern Kordofan) and Southern Blue Nile. These latter states are located within the North, and their inhabitants are Muslims, but of non-Arab descent. During the second civil war, many peo- ple of the Nuba Mountains (Southern ah Federations

ll Kordofan) and Southern Blue Nile were da

Ab strategic and loyal supporters of the n n i d l SPLM/A program of a “New Sudan” and, 11 ure

N being geographically on the front line ed ed themselves, were critical to the strength mm of the SPLM militarily. / Moha /

REUTERS Convincing vision lacking Although there were prominent progres- Forging a deal: Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir, right, shakes hands with Vice President Salva Kiir. The pair formed a government of national unity after the 2005 peace accord. The sive political forces within the powerful two were re-elected in April 2010. A referendum on independence in Southern Sudan Northern parties, sectarian, personal scheduled for January 2011 could bring changes. and ideological differences made them ineffective and vulnerable and in 1989, Before independence, South South’s natural resources, including its they were overthrown by the current

Sudanese leaders asked for and were arable land, water and, of course, its oil. regime of Omer Al Bashir. SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 promised a degree of self-rule, but the Foremost among the Northern politi- Since independence, there has been a first government in power reneged, cal parties are the Umma Party and the constant inability by Sudan’s other major which inevitably triggered the first Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), each political parties to settle on and deliver a Southern rebellion that lasted from 1955, of which owed its popularity largely to viable political vision for Sudan. In par- the eve of independence, until 1972. their links with the two main Muslim ticular there has been a failure to ensure Unfortunately, Khartoum dealt with sects of Sudan, the Ansar and the the two requisites, separation of state the rebellion as a security issue and Khatimya. and religion; and more reasonably bal- resorted to military means to suppress it anced wealth- and power-sharing rather than addressing the underlying Peace until oil was discovered arrangements with all regions. This political issues that fueled the revolt by The one bright period for the South was weakness cannot be underestimated in the South Sudanese. during the time of the so-called Addis understanding why there are not more What followed in the next few decades Ababa accord, in which Southern Sudan apparent options for democratic politi- cal solutions in Sudan. was a series of what Southern political enjoyed considerable self-rule from 1972 After almost 20 years of fighting, and intellectuals refer to as “too many broken to 1983. However, the main proponent of promises,” of which the current regime is several attempts to restore peace, John the agreement, General Ja’far Nimeiri, in only the latest version. The phrase refer- Garang and the SPLM/A signed the 2005 the face of challenges to his power base ring to broken promises was made Comprehensive Peace Agreement with famous by a book titled Southern Sudan: in Khartoum, flouted the Addis Ababa the ruling National Congress Party that Too Many Agreements Dishonoured. Agreement and brought Law to did not include the other major Southerners have long felt treated as the South. Northern (non-ruling) political parties, second-class citizens by the government This coincided with the 1978 discovery but did include special protocols for and the ruling class generally. They saw of oil in the region of the 1956 North- Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well themselves as victims of intra-elite jock- South borders. This discovery was as Abyei which also sits on the border. eying for position by different Northern central to the North-South conflict and Critics of the 2005 peace agreement politicians, in which policies were based still is today – and it will be key to achiev- argue that it was not “comprehensive” at on how to maintain one or the other elite ing peace in the next months, whether or all because it did not include key legiti- groups’ delicate hold on power in not the South votes for secession. mate actors such as other major Khartoum at the expense of the aspira- The breach of theA ddis Ababa Accord opposition parties like Umma and DUP, tions and rights of Southerners. led to the second Southern civil war, which have enjoyed major support in all In particular. this included practices from 1983 to 2004, with the forming of the free ’s history. As well, like forced Islamization (including Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement & critics note that the Peace Agreement did applying Sharia law in the South), Army (SPLM/A), under the leadership of not deal sufficiently with the aspirations Arabization, and exploitation of the the late . of other regions for better power- and The SPLM adopted an all-Sudan forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

wealth-sharing relationships with the them of their resources and co-opting Government of National Unity to uphold centre. some of the opposition’s supporters. the constitution and implement key ele- The “Sudan problem,” as it is often Those supporters were vulnerable to ments of the peace agreement, elements called, is typically referred to as a broader inducements because of the weak eco- that were essential for a transition to centre-periphery conflict, in which all nomic situation, which only the democracy, has led to frequent disagree- the “peripheral” regions (including government, the main controller of eco- ment between the government’s two Darfur and Eastern Sudan) and not just nomic activities in Sudan, is able to fix. partners, the north’s National Congress the South have been long exploited and But after the 2005 agreement, stagna- Party and the south’s Sudan People’s left underdeveloped by the small Arab tion set in and unity was not made to Revolutionary Movement. This has been elite that controls the centre of power in appear attractive. In April 2010, the major a dark cloud that has overshadowed the Khartoum. The people of the Northern Northern opposition parties boycotted interim period. “peripheral” regions, which are made up the elections which failed to meet the This situation has created a political of dozens of African ethnic groups, are basic standards of being free and fair. In environment more conducive to dead- virtually all Muslims. the short time remaining until the locks than democratic transformations.

Federations The political challenges within the Southern referendum, time is running It is in this context – as well as the longer South – before and after the signing of out for serious measures to be put on the historical experience – that a Southern 12 the 2005 peace Agreement – should not table to persuade the people of the South vote in favour of secession appears likely. be underestimated. Southern Sudan that a democratic transformation will be The international community over- itself is large and ethnically very diverse. forthcoming, and thus persuade them whelmingly supports the South’s right to It faces significant challenges of political that unity is the best option. hold the referendum. If the regime, or unity and cohesion, and regularly experi- elements of the regime, in Khartoum ences localized but serious violent Southern Secession tries to put up obstacles that lead to dis- conflicts that could easily spread. These The second core objective of the 2005 ruption of the referendum, many expect shortcomings are compounded by a very agreement also looks likely to fail as unity large-scale instability will set in. severe shortage of trained administra- is less attractive than at any other time in This scenario would also have an tors in the civil service and a limited the . The majority of impact on the coming popular consulta- record of internal democratic southern Sudanese are gearing up for tions in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, governance. secession, even though the government and the negotiations that are expected to Stepping back for a moment, it is fair of South Sudan is facing many problems. follow. The consultations’ outcome is SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 to say that the peace agreement, with all Self-determination, specifically inde- less certain than South Sudan’s likely its flaws, has delivered relative peace in pendence, has become first and vote for separation, but will be almost as the South since 2005, which is an impor- foremost an emotional issue rather than critical. These states played key roles tant departure and improvement on the one that has been thought through politically and militarily in support of the record of broken promises by Khartoum carefully. SPLM/A and the idea of a “New Sudan.” in the past. For the rest of Sudan, the prospect of They will play a major role in testing the However, in terms of long-term sus- Southern separation could spell disaster. willingness of the Khartoum government tainable peace, the 2005 agreement was TheN orth will lose some of the income it to negotiate and deliver on their prom- meant to achieve two major and intrinsi- derives from oil revenues, which repre- ises effectively and in good faith. cally linked objectives. First, democratic sents more than 65 per cent of the Federal governance is said to be a transformation was to take place in national government’s income, at a time means through which the forces that Sudan; and second, it was to provide the when other economic activities have also make the Sudanese one nation can coex- Southern Sudanese with the right to vote deteriorated. ist with the forces that have the potential in a 2011 referendum on whether they The separation of the South would to pull them apart. The forces that differ- wished to secede from the North. The six- most probably encourage other regions entiate us can be accommodated year interim period was to be used as a to demand greater self-determination, through various degrees of regional self- period during which the prospects of especially in South Kordofan, Blue Nile rule; while the forces that bring us unity were to be made “attractive” to and Darfur which would add to the com- together can be fostered by “shared rule” Southerners. plexity of negotiations and instability in at the national centre. Sudan certainly the whole country, depending on the has an abundance of both forces, Failed democratic transformation negotiating behavior of the leaders. although the former are threatening to The first objective remains unfulfilled as Federal governance is an essential tear the country apart because of the the Government of National Unity failed component of the Peace Agreement and inadequate performance of its political to put in place important measures the Interim Constitutions. Indeed, feder- leaders. spelled out in the peace agreement that alism as a core element of any long-term More than half a century of politics in were crucial to supporting democratic sustainable political solution is now independent Sudan has only managed practices. The most prominent and cur- widely accepted among the political to make unity increasingly less likely, rent example of this is the April 2010 elites in Sudan who are committed to and to fragment the society between and elections, which failed to meet interna- democracy. within regions. Whatever happens in the tional standards and were widely However, the experience of the last six Southern referendum, Sudan will need boycotted by political parties outside of years illustrates the limitations of well- to do better in its commitment to demo- the signatory parties. designed agreements and constitutions cratic federalism. The current ruling regime weakened in the absence of genuine commitment. The country cannot withstand many the opposition parties by draining The lack of political will shown by the more broken promises.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue What Sudan might look like after 2011 Issues on the table are not just oil and land, but language, religion and culture. Federations

13 ah ll da Ab n n i SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 d l ure N ed ed mm / Moha / REUTERS Border areas between South Sudan and the north of the country contain oil that may be in dispute if South Sudan votes for independence. This oil handling facility in South Kordofan state is in one of those areas.

by Jalal Abdel-Latif and Seifulaziz Lamin Milas

udan’s referendum is certain to emerge with the rapidly ever the outcome of the referendum, to scheduled for January approaching expiry of the peace ensure post-referendum peace and sta- 2011, and time is running agreement. bility. Not acting quickly now could out. Sudan is facing major hurdles such as mean that opportunities for peaceful res- Many of the tasks the inability to control its territory and olution of these problems could be lost. required by the country’s manage its linguistic, cultural and reli- Sudan, a large country, is one-quarter S 2005 Comprehensive gious diversity. Years of living with these the size of the United States. Peace Agreement (CPA) have not been problems seem to be eroding people’s Historically, it was composed of completed. These include crucial issues sense of belonging to one nation in tribal-based, loosely connected com- of governance including border demar- Sudan. munities, accustomed to localized forms cation and political rights that have not Sudan also faces urgent problems of government run by tribal sheikhs or yet been resolved, and others that are that need to be addressed quickly, what- village chiefs. Its attempts at decentralization over the last 40 years have all fallen short of is Chief of the Civil Society and Post Conflict Section of the UN Economic Jalal Abdel–Latif full-fledged federal mechanisms, partic- Commission for Africa, in Addis Ababa. He formerly worked with the Sudan and Ethiopia offices of World Bank. He has more than 20 years experience in capacity building with ularly those that grant power and African civil society 0rganizations and humanitarian and peace building projects. (The resource sharing. opinions expressed in this article are his own.) The key actors in Sudan’s peace effort, both Sudanese and international, are Seifulaziz Lamin Milas worked with the UN Environment Programme from 1980-89. After that increasingly focused on the approaching he was with UNICEF/Operation Lifeline Sudan, UNICEF Somalia, and civil society organizations referendum and its aftermath. with a focus on post-conflict reconstruction and development in the Horn of Africa. The partners in the peace agreement, forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

the National Congress Party and the Sudan’s central government. The debate continues, but with little con- Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement/ Sudan’s institutional structure is seen sensus, and a tendency toward denial Army (SPLM), agreed in June to hold by many, particularly those from and lack of political will. “negotiations on post-2011 referendum outlying regions, as one in which That could help explain the failure, issues and arrangements” to be facili- disproportionate amounts of power and since the signing of the CPA, to act on tated by a body of the Africa Union . influence are held by northern elites. certain critical issues that need to be The talks are designed to address While a significant part of Sudan is addressed before the referendum. These questions of citizenship, security, finan- made up of nomadic cultures, these include demarcation of the border cial, economic and natural resources; elites are composed of largely non- between North and South and necessary international treaties and legal issues. nomadic communities from around the preparations for the referendum, as well so-called ‘three towns’ of Khartoum, as preparations for the referendum in Increased efforts Omdurman and Khartoum North, and the Abyei region, to be held at the same As well, members of the international northward along the Nile, where inhabit- time. The Commission responsible for community have increased efforts to ants trace their descent from the early border demarcation has said that Federations promote the timely holding of the refer- Arab migrations. They have been near because of the rainy season, it will not be endum, which is considered essential to the centre of power for most of Sudan’s able to complete its work in time for the 14 peace. One key consideration is that the post-independence history. This has referendum. The SPLM’s response was peace agreement process extends for six often allowed them to promote interre- that the referendums must be held on months after the vote, providing for the gional policies that expanded their time, with or without border demarca- support base through ethnic and tion. The SPLM leadership has also necessary time to complete its regional agendas to their own advantage stated that the popular consultations for implementation. and to the detriment of local populations. the South Kordofan and Southern Blue Many related concerns need to be Nile States are among the basic terms of sorted out. Border demarcation is the the CPA and must be implemented. most obvious one, especially as many of Holding on to power As well, talks are continuing between the producing oil wells are in or near the The hold on power by these elites is the SPLM and Sudan’s ruling National border areas separating the North from linked to other major challenges and Congress Party on the sharing of oil reve- the South. Any border area that has not needs, which must be addressed to nues and other key issues. Most of been demarcated could encourage any- ensure a democratic transition and sus- Sudan’s current oil production, the main SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 one dissatisfied to file legal claims, tainable peace in Sudan. These source of state revenue for both North whether they are justified or not. This is challenges include the need for laws, and South, comes from the border zones. where a super-power like China, a prime policies and a coherent vision that Separation,without an agreed border customer of Sudanese oil, might inter- addresses the issues of inclusion and between the resources belonging to the vene by supporting the status quo, and management of diversity. North and South, could bring a high risk protecting its economic interests. The 2005 peace agreement was meant of conflict and even the potential for Both sides are financially dependent to solve this by providing an Interim another civil war - this time over oil. on maintaining and increasing the flow National Constitution, but it did so with of oil, the main source of income for both limited success. The interim constitution the Sudan Government and the was described in the local press as being Working on border issues Government of Southern Sudan. Most of more federal in form than in practice. The committee discussing the border the oil comes from the South, but it is The CPA sought to address the chal- issue has referred it to the Presidency for sent by pipeline to the aptly-named Port lenges of diversity through the settlement at the highest level. The Sudan in Northern Sudan, from where it decentralization of powers. But the Presidency includes President Omar is shipped to foreign markets. peace agreement was, above all, an Hassan al-Bashir, head of the NCP and Whatever the people decide in the agreement between the main belligerent First Vice-President Salva Kiir, who is referendum, North and South Sudan will parties. An inclusive agreement would also president of Southern Sudan and still have to live together and co-operate have had more effect, enabling the par- leader of its ruling SPLM. with each other. If they are not careful, ticipation of other major Sudanese There are also key issues of citizenship, they will have little choice except for political forces, such as nomadic com- such as who has the right to vote in the renewed conflict leading to possible munities in other parts of the country, referendum, and also post-referendum mutual ruin. They are better armed than thereby forming a genuinely federal issues of nationality that need to be before, however, and are probably capa- structure with power and resource-shar- addressed. There is the issue of south- ble of destroying the oil infrastructure ing among the federal units (states) and erners, Internally Displaced Persons upon which they both depend. In the the central government. (IDPs) and other people who live in the event of a decision for separation, a The management of diversity in North, some of whom might want to stay. peaceful divorce would be in the best Sudan remains a formidable political There are northerners, who live in the interests of all concerned. challenge to the building of a cohesive South and might want to remain. These But what could Sudan do now to nation-state. The question of whether are among the citizenship and right of avoid a divorce of North and South? Sudan’s ethnic, religious, and cultural residence issues that will arise if the ref- One major step – perhaps not possi- diversity can be reconciled to reflect a erendum leads to secession. ble before the referendum – would be to common public interest has long been Secession also could lead to break the hold of the traditional elites on debated by Sudanese political writers. increased tensions over the Nile’s waters, with the South claiming its share, thereby forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Federations

15 ra m ense b / Zohra Zohra / REUTERS

Sudanese boys wade in the waters of the Nile at Tuti Island in Khartoum. There has not yet been an agreement on the use of the Nile river between Southern Sudan and the Government of Sudan.

leaving less for the North. This is also a ous political repercussions. tral levels, as well as taking into account

major issue for Egypt, which has often Identity politics have frequently been shared values at the centre, which serve SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 said it could not accept the separation of at the centre of instability in Sudan. This as the basis for national cohesion. South Sudan. In the 1959 agreement form of politics is played out in the crisis To establish effective federalism, a between Egypt and Sudan on the Full areas of Sudan, mostly in the periphery, country must have the following: Utilization of the Nile Waters, the two such as in Darfur, much of Southern downstream countries claimed the full Sudan, and in the Nuba Mountains and • the will of political actors to give flow of theN ile River for themselves. the Northeast. effective powers to subnational fed- This amounts annually to 55.5 billion eral units by allowing each unit to cubic metres (BCM) of Nile water for Accommodating diversity determine its own destiny to a Egypt, 18.5 BCM for Sudan and 12 BCM Various experiments in African countries defined extent. lost to evaporation from storage behind such as Nigeria and Ethiopia have sought • the will to accept that subnational Egypt’s Aswan High Dam. The seven new ways to harness traditional kinship units have an effective voice in central upstream countries that were excluded into a country’s politics in a balanced decision-making so they can, to some from this agreement insist on their right and positive way. These offer some pro- to use the Nile waters. Separation and a degree, define the destiny of the found insight into the workings of such whole nation-state. share for the South could mean less forms of representation. The experi- water for the North. • a commitment by political actors to ments provide examples of how such Despite the lack of preparation, the support and give legitimacy to the parties could coalesce through shared CPA Partners in the Government of entire country. visions of nation-building and seek to National Unity, the National Congress • The will to accept the rule of law, (as Party and the Sudan Peoples Liberation accommodate diversity as a way of sus- stated in the paper “Peace Mediation Movement (SPLM), continue voicing taining unity. Essentials,” published by the Swiss their commitment to the referendum African governments have responded Peace Foundation and the Center for and to holding it on time. Others are less to diversity with policies and actions that Security Studies). certain and express their concern that have ranged all the way from repression delays might contribute to greater insta- to pluralistic policies such as granting A federal system might provide an bility and potential conflict. autonomy to regions or adopting fed- effective means of enabling Sudan’s In Sudan, as elsewhere in Africa, eral-type political arrangements. diverse communities to live together, but there appears to be a resurgence of iden- Federalism can provide an effective would require considerable effort and tity politics. Some groups in Sudan structure for addressing diversity, when attitudinal changes on all sides. But that promote kinship identity as the basis for it is based on genuine sharing of power would likely take time and time is political divisions and loyalties. As a and resources, and co-operation. It goes running short. result, partisan activism and distorted further than simple decentralization and public civic discourse are causing seri- aims to ensure a voice at local and cen- forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Interview: Deputy Governor Abdel Aziz Southern Kordofan’s Abdel Aziz al-Hilu answers Forum’s questions on federalism for the entire country. Southern Kordofan State was the site of intense combat during the second Sudanese Civil War, fought between 1983–2005. It remained rife with ten- sions at the end of the conflict. It is endowed with oil, but awash with weap- ons and is in a region growing impatient Federations for post-conflict reconstruction and economic development. 16 While most eyes are trained on Southern Sudan, and the delicate buildup to the 2011 referendum on whether it splits from the North, there are also the so-called three ‘transitional areas’ such as Southern Kordofan, which bear careful scrutiny because previous civil wars were fought in part in the these areas and they risk being a bat- tleground again if peace does not hold. Abdel Aziz al-Hilu is the Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan State, a SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 state with a population of about 2.2 mil- m oru

lion, which is governed by special F protocols to the 2005 Comprehensive to the the to l a

Peace Agreement, the pact that ended ci pe S /

the most recent 22-year civil war. z e i haf

Mr. Aziz is also co-chairman of the l de

technical committee that is facilitating Ab . . A

planning and preparations for the m state’s “popular consultations,” which Issa are to be held by June, 2011 to determine Former SPLM senior military commander, Abdel Aziz, sees unity in diversity as key to peace and stability for Sudan. the political, economic, and social aspi- rations of the Southern Kordofan violence. This has heightened concerns postponed. Its completion is awaited in people as to how their state should that South Kordofan could be a flash- order for elections to be held in the function after the interim peace agree- point for broader conflicts as the state. Much of what was meant to hap- ment comes to an end. interim period draws to a close. pen since 2005 has not occurred, Mr. Aziz is a longtime member of the In recognition of Southern creating frustration and exasperation Sudan People’s Liberation Movement Kordofan’s pivotal role in resolving the among the South Kordofan people who and was a senior commander of the 22-year conflict, it and another ‘transi- are still looking to realize dividends Sudan People’s Liberation Army during tional’ area, Blue Nile State, were dealt from the peace agreement that was the 1983-2005 Civil War. The deputy gov- with separately and granted a degree of struck almost six years ago. ernor is part Nuba, one of the largest autonomy in the 2005 Comprehensive It was against this backdrop that tribal groupings in the state, many of Peace Agreement. Abdel Aziz al-Hilu met with Todd whom were loyal to and aligned with They were to be governed by a state Dusenbery of the Forum and gave the the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. executive, legislature, and judiciary. A following interview, an exchange char- He and the current governor, Ahmed State Land Commission was to work on acterized by Mr. Aziz’s frank talk and his Harun, will be running against each settling land disputes. A census and emphasis on how unity in diversity is other for the governor’s seat in the elections were to be held within four the key to peace and stability for the state’s mid-term by-elections. years of the 2005 peace agreement. region, where critical negotiations will While the state prepares for the pop- However, there were profound dis- be taking place that could make or ular consultations, there is uncertainty agreements over the census, which was break a peaceful transition for Sudan. and apprehension over fears of renewed

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

plicated by two factors. The first is collections of Zakat, which is a type of religious tax, and one of the Five Pillars of Islam. Under Sharia law, Zakat is man- datorily collected from the devout at mosques – and is pooled and equitably distributed to the poor for charitable needs. However, it is not clear where the money goes and we do not always see how it is meets the needs of the people. The other area is in the agro-business, where modern mechanized farming schemes generate tremendous eco- nomic activity. But like all northern Federations states, we are not allowed to impose any duties on agricultural or animal-based 17 revenues, which constrain public financ- ing for important service delivery. Imposing other forms of state taxation also creates the complication of acting like double taxation for many, a problem which needs to be addressed. Currently, as an oil-producing state, we receive a small share of the petroleum revenues generated in Southern Kordofan, in addition to the horizontal transfers that were negotiated as a part of

the transfer formula. But this is not suffi- SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 cient to make up for the extra financial and other burdens that petroleum pro- duction creates, such as damage done to the environment and public health prob- artography c lems. A greater share will need to be ons ons i negotiated to meet the associated costs ted nat ted i of research, cleanup, and medical care. Management of diversity is equally ased on un on ased

b important, especially given the cultural ap ap m and religious mix in our state. There are Southern Kordofan, the site of intense fighting during the civil war, will have a ‘popular over 92 tribes speaking up to 92 lan- consultation’ for residents to decide the political, economic, and social aspirations of the guages, several with distinct belief Southern Kordofan people. systems. Many are sub-clans of the greater Nuba ethnic grouping, and there

federations: Federal types of governance abdel aziz: There are several. First and are the Missiriya and Hawazma, and oth- come in many institutional forms inter- foremost is in the area of wealth sharing. ers who have migrated along the trade nationally to match the challenges and Devastation from the war (the 1983-2005 routes from West Africa, such as the possibilities of different societies. But the Sudan civil war) left us with a critical lack Hausa-Fulani and Borneo tribes. Islam, main characteristic is that sub-national of basic services and severe reconstruc- Christianity, and several local religions units (such as states, provinces, etc.) tion needs. The existing system of are practiced, but currently only one sys- have some control over their own affairs intergovernmental fiscal transfers from tem of religious law—Sharia—is in some areas—such as over primary the National Revenue Fund in the centre imposed on everyone. This is not fair.A ll education—but all regions are ruled by is not effective or transparent and fur- groups need binding constitutional safe- the central government on other mat- thermore leaves us dependent on guards and day-to-day assurances for ters—such as national defense. We call Khartoum for handouts. In turn, more cultural and religious freedom so they this balancing “shared rule” at the centre state control of finances should be com- can live in peace. with the right degree of “self-rule” for bined with systems for ensuring greater More autonomy in decisions around regions. For you, what are the key areas transparency and accountability to make land rights is also vital to managing where your state needs exclusive or sig- sure the money is being spent wisely. peace and stability. This applies to both nificant autonomy, and why? We need greater freedom to generate surface and sub-surface rights. There are our own state revenues, but this is com- fundamental problems related to land

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

access and land use rights between the federations: Although not detailed, the composed of key state leadership to centre and state, and disputes over own- Comprehensive Peace Agreement’s carry out planning until the official com- ership and arbitrating claims. The 3-Areas Protocol calls for Popular mittee is in place. We have also brought introduction of large scale modern Consultations in Southern Kordofan (as together a diverse group of more than mechanized farming – sometimes man- well as Blue Nile State). What needs to 100 elders from a variety of backgrounds aged by absentee landlords – and forced happen to ensure that the consultations to bring in more people and help to gen- relocations (of farmers) off Southern are perceived as legitimate? What have erate increased consensus around the Kordofan’s fertile land has created fric- been the main issues faced in designing process. tion among the local, subsistence the process? Do you have concerns that But I still have deep concerns, partic- farmers who follow customary tenure the process and its results will not be ularly since many of the Comprehensive and usage systems. We don’t have ade- implemented effectively? Peace Agreement (CPA) provisions were quate institutions to adjudicate these not implemented, which has reduced matters, or sense where Khartoum’s abdel aziz: In order for the popular con- the level of trust of the people, height- jurisdiction ends and ours begins. sultations to work, the conduct of free ened frustrations with the centre and Federations Unquestionably land is another area and fair elections is first and foremost a contributed to increased insecurity. where the state – and localities – need prerequisite for legitimacy. Elections During the (five-year) interim period, we 18 more say in management and rights. held in accordance with international have not seen the Sudan Armed Forces Finally, Southern Kordofan should standards will ensure that the many dif- in the area reduce their numbers to also have a stronger role in international ferent interest groups are represented in peacetime levels, as was set out in the relations, allowing us to better represent the State Assembly, which has been CPA security arrangements. The Joint our cultural interests through diplomatic given the authority in the Integrated Units (JIU), which were sup- missions and other international forums, Comprehensive Peace Agreement and posed to be the basis of a new national and to have a greater say around foreign Popular Consultation Law to set up the army, formed by integrating Southern investments and business practices, Popular Consultation Steering People’s Liberation Army and Sudan especially dealing with those involved in Committee. Armed Forces troops, has not been mineral extraction and agro-business, The main challenges we have faced in formed as planned. Disarmament and which have a tangible impact on our designing the process have revolved redeployment initiatives have not been

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 communities and affairs. around delays in conducting the state effective, and there has been a disturbing elections, whose tardiness has led to the spread of small arms throughout the federations: Federalism or federal-type postponement of the popular consulta- region. Indeed, security is perhaps the arrangements also entail regions having tions. The elections were delayed biggest immediate challenge. an influence on decision-making of the because of disputes around the census central government—in this case results (which are expected to be federations: Capacity is a major con- Khartoum. How do you see Khartoum announced soon). Some have accused straint in all parts of Sudan. What vision working differently to ensure a balance Khartoum of using this as a stalling tactic do you have for building the capacity for between regional autonomy while need- to frustrate the process. Furthermore, better governance in your state and other ing to maintain a united Sudan? there has not been enough civic educa- parts of Sudan? tion and sensitization around the What has been the source of the suc- abdel aziz: While aspired to in the popular consultations because many cit- cess in the Southern Kordofan region Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the izens are still confused and misinformed during the war and Interim period? Government of National Unity has not in on basic facts about the process. practice led to the kind of true representa- I am also concerned that when the abdel aziz: Overall, I think the CPA set up tion that is needed to instill confidence Committee submits the outcome and a strong framework for cooperation and trust in the system. In any future recommendations from the popular between the north and south. My rela- arrangement, we need to see an environ- consultations to Khartoum, there will be tionship with Governor Harun has been ment where multi-party democracy can differences. According to the Popular productive and has helped us navigate operate and flourish, which will allow Consultation Law, the State Council is some difficult terrain, especially since central institutions, such as the Council of supposed to settle disputes that emerge 2009. There has been less distrust States, and the National Assembly, to between the state and Khartoum, but I between partners, more security and more accurately balance and represent do not trust this body, and feel that inter- movement on key issues. But the seeds of the country’s diverse interests. We also national arbitration, through a body like conflict are still there, and fundamentally need to see a more frequent rotation in the Intergovernmental Authority for need to be addressed. the office of the presidency to give other Development (IGAD) or the African Most important is the development of groups and regions an opportunity to lead Union, will be required for a legitimate sustainable democratic institutions, at the centre. To promote a true sense of and binding resolution. which are the foundations to peace and national unity and identity, the centre In the meantime, Governor Harun development. This includes a strength- also needs to respect, tolerate, and protect and I and have helped to prepare, by ened rule of law, strengthening the rights of all of Sudan’s religious and establishing the Popular Consultation legislative and local government protect Sudan’s cultural diversity. Technical Committee, an ad hoc forum continued on page 32 forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Southern Sudan faces challenges after referendum Decisions needed on diversity, state boundaries and how to distribute oil wealth. Federations

19 SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 ic asev m o T oran oran G / REUTERS In South Sudan, young supporters cheer South Sudanese President Salva Kiir at a rally in Yirol, in Lakes State.

by TODD dusenbery from scratch in an ethnically diverse, cept of decentralization, policy highly undeveloped, conflict-prone and consensus and implementation have fter decades of civil war, geographically large region. lagged in the interim period (from the Comprehensive While much has been achieved in the January 2005 until time of publication). Peace Agreement was first five years of the peace agreement, There remains considerable debate and signed in 2005 by the Sudan and Southern Sudan in particular even confusion and fear over a common government of Sudan are approaching a major crossroads with vision around federalism and decentral- and the Sudan People’s the referendum on Southern secession ization and how to make it work in A Liberation Movement/ scheduled for January, 2011. practice. Army, enabling Southern Sudan to cre- Preparations are underway for the Whatever the outcome of the 2011 ref- ate its own semi-autonomous post-referendum period. With support erendum, however, it is fair to say that government and participate directly in from the international community, the federal institutions, ideas, and experi- managing affairs of the country at the Government of Southern Sudan has ments will continue to play a vital role in national level. established the Post-2011 Task Force, the region’s political future – whether as But with the relative autonomy of the with a specific subcommittee focusing a new nation or as a semi-autonomous last five years has come an enormous on what a form of government should region in Sudan. task: to craft a new government virtually look like post-2011. Managing diversity is particularly rel- While the government of Southern evant in Southern Sudan, which is Todd Dusenbery is the Forum’s program Sudan has publicly embraced the con- composed of more than 200 ethnic manager in Sudan.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

groups, many with their own distinct lan- In designing federations, a key issue including among others: guages and dialects. In similar situations, to address is the physical geography of • The share of total revenue that federal governance has been used as a sub-national units, and related questions should be apportioned to each level of tool for balancing and creating a sense of such as how many states ought to form government to fulfill their respective ‘unity within diversity,’ operating on a the country, on what basis they should functions (the total transfer from centre variety of levels to help accommodate be constituted, where their borders to state or local governments), specific needs, interests, and traditions should be drawn and what relative size • The equitable share going to each of of large and small, minority and majority each should have. the states (or among all local govern- ethnic groups. From international experience we see ments) – the formula that may take into that once states are created it is very diffi- account their relative population size, Self rule vs. shared rule cult to reduce their number. But 2011 may level of underdevelopment, capacities, The essential question for Southern represent a unique moment for Southern among other factors. Sudan, where power continues to be Sudan to change the number and the • The level of implementation capac- largely centralized, is: How much and in basis for creation of states and local gov- ity, including the capacity for proper Federations what areas should state and local com- ernments. There are no clean and purely public financial management, munities be given freedom to manage or neutral, scientific-like criteria, but there • Creating proper incentives for states 20 govern their own affairs (self rule), and are criteria and processes that can and local governments to generate their how much control should remain in the enhance legitimacy for the basis used. own revenues, hands of the central government (shared South Africa went through such a pro- • The arrangements by which sector rule)? cess at the end of apartheid. policies and programs are coordinated A common error is for people to think Another decision to be made con- between levels of government, of federalism (or federal-like decentral- cerns the status of Southern Sudan’s • The arrangements by which inter- ization) as a zero-sum game. People have capital city. Will Juba continue to exist governmental allocations are decided the false impression that either we are simply as another city within Central and monitored. Under the peace one strongly united country or we are Equatoria state, or might it have a special Agreement there is a fiscal commission weak, balkanized or tribal. administrative status such as that of at the national level and one for Southern But this need not be the case and is Abuja, Nigeria; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; or Sudan.

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 not how federalism has worked for cen- Washington D.C.? Intergovernmental relations are the turies in countries like Switzerland and informal and formal means by which Canada, or more recently in post-colo- Using the oil windfall governments manage the inevitable nial or post-conflict countries like India, Southern Sudan currently has one of the need for coordination of their work, as Nigeria and Ethiopia. In these countries, lowest levels of development in the well as to prevent or mediate conflict diversity is empowered through a variety world. How can the government best put among governments (within the same of means matching each society’s cir- the windfall of oil revenues to work in order or between orders). There are cumstances; indeed, diversity is making service delivery more responsive many different models or combinations mutually respected and embraced as to people’s needs, as well to diversify the of systems, institutions, laws and tradi- part of the common national identity. future economic and revenue base? tions that make up the unique Many Sudanese and international If South Sudan becomes independent intergovernmental relations system of observers believe that one of the main it will become the world’s most oil- each federation. challenges for peace and governance in dependent economy and government, Southern Sudan as a whole is to manage with oil revenue accounting for approxi- Intergovernmental relations relations among its main ethnic groups. mately 98 per cent of the Government of Key areas for design of systems of inter- It is critical for Southern Sudan that Southern Sudan’s revenue. governmental relations in Southern disproportionate power not be, nor Wealth sharing is critical to ensuring Sudan will be inter-state border issues, appear to be, in the hands of one ethnic balanced development and equitable land management and coordination of group. Such situations, whatever their service delivery, and to avoid inequali- sector policies and programs for basic rationale, have often been the source of ties and perceived injustices from services. intractable conflict. This can be avoided becoming a source of tension and even Two other essential elements of fed- by ensuring that powers and resources violence. To date, states and local gov- eral systems are to ensure that there is a are assigned to states and local govern- ernments are almost totally dependent designated supreme arbitrator of consti- ments in such a manner that while some on financial transfers fromJ uba. tutional disputes between levels of groups hold a majority, the rights of local The allocation of revenue powers may government and that there is a second minorities are also respected. need to be revisited, including those that chamber in which the states play a role in In addition, it is important that repre- should go to the local level of govern- the centre’s legislative functions. sentation in the central government - in ment. Any revenue-transfer system The role of supreme arbitrator is usu- bodies such as the legislature, judiciary, needs to take into account a wide range ally played by the highest court of the police and security, and the civil service, of factors that may change quite dramati- land () or even by a spe- reflect the national ethnic makeup to a cally over time in new and fragile cially-designated constitutional court. reasonable degree. political entities like Southern Sudan, continued on page 32

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Northern Sudan could reorganize - even without the South Changes will be needed, no matter what the referendum’s outcome. Federations

21 ah ll da SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 Ab n n i d l ure N ed ed mm / Moha / REUTERS Tribespeople rally in Khartoum to support the Darfur peace negotiations in August 2010. After the referendum in Southern Sudan, Darfur will need a permanent peace .

by Omer Awadalla Ali A majority vote for secession by federal arrangements will continue, Southerners will raise many questions according to the 2005 peace agreement about the fate of the federal arrange- and the Interim National Constitution. In January 2011, the people of ments in force in the reconstituted However, as has been well noted by Southern Sudan are sched- northern Sudan. all observers, the 2005 peace agreement uled to vote in a referendum, Indeed, even a vote for unity by and the interim constitution are the either for a unified Sudan or Southerners will still leave open impor- results of negotiations and peacemaking t o c r e a t e t h e i r o w n tant matters concerning how to devise between the two warring parties, the nation-state. federal arrangements in the country in a National Congress Party and the Sudan IThis referendum, Sudan’s rendez- manner that best meets the legitimate Peoples’ Liberation Movement. But the vous with destiny, is spelled out in the aspirations of all regions to attain a two key documents, the peace agree- Comprehensive Peace Agreement degree of self-rule, while ensuring an ment and the interim constitution, do (CPA) of 2005 which, by the terms of effective and sufficient basis for national not include all the major political actors the agreement, was meant to “make unity. or even all the major regions of Sudan. unity (of all Sudan) attractive” to Thus, a major challenge for making Southerners during a six-year interim The future of federalism in the case federal arrangements work more effec- period that ends in 2011. of unity tively post-2011 will be how to integrate If Southerners vote for unity, the current the (DPA) and the East Peace Agreement into a perma- Dr. Omer Awadalla Ali is a senior civil servant in Sudan. He has served as a legal advisor in nent National Constitution. The Darfur the Ministry of Justice. He obtained his PhD on Federalism from Switzerland’s University of agreement was signed in 2006 by the Fribourg. He is working now as the director of the Federalism Research and Capacity-Building Government of Sudan, the Sudan Centre in Khartoum. forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice and Equity Movement. It was hoped that the agreement would provide a lasting solution to the conflict in Darfur although major rebel groups refused to sign the pact. However, the 2006 East Peace Agreement between the Sudanese gov- ernment and the rebel has succeeded – unlike the Darfur agree- ment – in bringing peace and stability to the Eastern region.

Darfurians want to strengthen their ah ll

region’s status and thus the parties to the da Ab n n i Federations

Darfur peace agreement are seeking to d l ure

amend the interim constitution to incor- N ed ed 22 porate the Darfur peace agreement in it, m and for good measure, to embed in it the aspirations of Darfurians. euters/Moha R Darfur needs solution Students in Khartoum rally at the National Assembly to support unity between north and This evokes two possibilities. The first south Sudan. option would be to create an asymmetri- cal arrangement for Darfur similar to the arrangement set out for the South in both the 2005 peace agreement and the Historically, Sudan was composed of economy for the whole country. interim constitution. nine regions until 1994, when it was split The notion of reconstituting the states As a result, the central government in into 26 states (called wilaya), through the or regions (as six states or regions in the

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 Khartoum would deal with the peoples 10th Constitutional Decree. Then, in North and one highly autonomous terri- and state(s) in Darfur through one single 2005, it was divided into 25 states under tory in the South) would present an government of Darfur, just as it now deals the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. opportunity to also reconsider the func- with the Government of South Sudan A common aim among political elites tions of the head of state as they would be with regard to the interests of the south- in the North is to restore the former nine- set out in a permanent constitution. The ern states. region configuration. Given that the holder of this office can play an impor- Under the Darfur peace agreement, South – under the unity scenario – would tant constitutional role in promoting an interim authority for the three states be considered one unit, and possibly national unity by recognizing, in mean- in Darfur has been established. But, Darfur as another unit, then in simple ingful ways, the nation’s diversity. unlike Southern Sudan, Darfur would terms, considering the South and Darfur According to the 2005 peace agree- have difficulty going about electing a as two distinct regions, the central gov- ment, the president of the republic is president for all of its territory. This is due ernment might press to also amalgamate directly elected, while the powerful posi- to a lack of coherence and unity among the other northern states into regions, as tion of first vice-president automatically the military, tribal and social entities in was the case before the adoption of fed- goes to the president of Southern Sudan. Darfur, as well as a consequence of the eralism in 1991. This arrangement is effective in recogniz- considerable scars from the war on the ing and dealing with long-standing region’s social fabric. Northern states could be larger conflicts between the North and South, Another option is to reconsider the Obviously, these Northern states or and the presidential system seems to be current division of the states in Darfur. regions would be bigger and possibly well adapted to handle the complexity of The Darfur peace agreement calls for a more powerful than the current 15 Sudanese society. special referendum in 2010 for the people Northern states. However, every time But this arrangement of the president of Darfur to decide whether they want to constitutional framers design a new fed- of Sudan being from the North and the approve the current division of Darfur, eral entity, they decide how to constitute first vice-president from the South is not which is currently composed of three the states that will form the new federa- well viewed by other regions, such as the states, or whether they want to collapse western and eastern parts of the country, tion and they apportion the division of and integrate them into one region. which feel marginalized by such anoma- powers accordingly to meet the country’s In the event of the latter ‘one-region’ lies that make one of their own people particular needs. option, the whole structure of the federal ineligible to be head of state. There are Thus, there is nothing untoward or system in Sudan will need to be recon- other options. implied in the actual number of states or sidered – in particular, the critical issue of Historically, Sudan experienced a regions to suggest that the Khartoum the basis on which states are constituted unique type of government during the government and central institutions (namely the number of states and the cri- period of early independence, between would not be empowered to ensure teria for their creation, with respect to 1956 and 1958. The government then was unity, security and a healthy national borders and similar considerations). composed of a Sovereignty Council that forumfed.org Sudan Special issue was, in turn, composed of five members centre, a state of balance between auton- ably, that it would be best governed as a representing different regions. The office omy and national unity – which is the federal nation. of president rotated yearly among them. very essence of all federal systems. Another key issue in the case of seces- A similar model could be put into place sion is the situation with the two states of in the permanent constitution to be The future of federalism in the case Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile for enacted after the 2011 referendum. This of secession which the 2005 peace agreement sets out could provide all the regions with the Some political elites in Sudan and many different procedures for determining the comfort that they would share, signifi- international actors view Sudan in terms nature of their political relationship with cant power and prestige in the central of it being composed of two distinct enti- the rest of Sudan. government more equitably. ties - the North and the South. However, Although these two states lie in the The overall Head of Government, this view obscures the essential fact that northern part of the country, according such as a Prime Minister, would be efforts to secure a sustainable peace in to the defined border of 1956, many of the directly elected from across all the coun- Sudan need to take the interests of the inhabitants living in the two states have try, while regional representatives of the entire country into account, especially long sympathized with the southern rotating Presidency could be elected with regard to the power-sharing and cause and fought together with the Federations from among the respective regional cau- wealth-sharing relationships among all Sudan People’s Liberation Army/ cuses in the national . the country’s regions and its centre. Movement to achieve their demands, 23 In addition to this being a highly sym- Nevertheless, the reality created by which ranged from regional autonomy to bolic recognition of Sudan’s diversity, the 2005 peace agreement is that self-determination. similar mixed Presidential- Southerners will have the right to vote for This is why the 2005 peace agree- Parliamentary systems in other countries or against secession in a vote now sched- ment’s special protocols apply to the two could be investigated to identify appro- uled for January 2011. states, where the people have to carry out priate real powers for the rotating If Southerners choose secession, the a process of “popular consultation.” Presidency such as specific authority burning question to be answered would The term “popular consultation,” with regard to the interests of the states be whether the remaining northern part which is clearly defined by the law, is a or regions. These powers would not of the dismembered nation would main- process meant to determine the will of interfere with the central government’s tain the current federal structure or opt the people of these two states: ability to set and implement policy. to become a unitary country. - on whether the 2005 peace agreement In fact, this option would be relevant Constitutionally, the states and local satisfies their political aspirations. SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 for the rest of Sudan even if the South governments gained significant auton- - with regard to the weaknesses in the votes to secede. omy under the current federal constitutional, political, and adminis- Another challenging governance arrangement, set out in the 2005 interim trative arrangements of the 2005 issue that will have to be dealt with in the constitution. For that reason alone, it peace agreement. permanent constitution, if South Sudan would be difficult for the federal order of votes in 2011 to remain part of Sudan, is government to retreat and implement a Once the shortcomings have been how to deal with the intergovernmental unitary form of government that has, identified, a process of negotiation is to relations dimension of the country. after all, failed since independence. be established between the states and Under the 2005 peace agreement and The federal system has effectively Khartoum. interim constitution, the federal govern- enabled protagonists to settle not only ment in Khartoum can only deal with the the historical conflict in the southern Autonomy possible for two states people of Southern Sudan by going part of Sudan, but also qualifies as the Another question that needs answering through the Government of Southern obvious response to regional strife (with or without Southern secession) is Sudan in Juba. It is very uncertain involving other Sudanese entities such as whether these two states will seek a whether this unusual arrangement has Darfur to the west, and Beja to the east, greater degree of autonomy in their deal- worked thus far, or can work in the future as well as the Southern Blue Nile and ings with Khartoum, and if so, how to foster nationwide unity and cohesion. Nuba Mountains, among others. would such asymmetrical arrangements In 2011, the parties should consider an Federalism has become increasingly affect the legitimate aspirations of other alternative model of intergovernmental understood by Sudanese political actors states or regions? relations between the Khartoum govern- as a means to cope with social, cultural Similarly, how would any such redis- ment and the South as well as the other and ethnic pluralism in a very compre- tribution of power affect the legitimate regions. Such an alternative would rec- hensive manner. That is, it is a form of needs of the central government and ognize the special autonomous status of governance that can contain different central institutions to forge national the Southern region while fostering a regional, ethnic and cultural groups as unity in the newly reconstituted Sudan? sense that the southern states are part of one national entity, but one that should Clearly, federalism, with its attendant a wider system of national government. not be seen as providing advantages to strengths and weaknesses, should be an This could be done by various means the particular interests of minorities, eth- important factor to be weighed by all such as holding meetings annually or nic groups or regions – as that approach Sudanese as they prepare for the many more frequently of all the governors, as could fracture the country. and varied scenarios the country will well as special meetings of governors or Northern Sudan’s large geographic face in 2011. other government office-holders in the expanse, its multiple levels of diversity - border states. These gatherings would religious, ethnic, linguistic and historical help attain, between the states and the - suggest very strongly, if not inescap-

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Sharing the wealth: oil for Sudan’s development Learning hard lessons from other federations Federations

24 SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 ) S MI UN ka ( ka l ku mc

im / t / REUTERS In Abyei, in central Sudan, people celebrate a Hague Court decision in July 2010 that ruled key oil fields in Abyei belong to northern Sudan.

by George anderson It is estimated that oil accounts for rather, they are federal because they are about 95 per cent of Sudan’s export earn- difficult to govern.I n fact, federal struc- ings and 60 per cent of its governmental tures are meant to help a country find a h e Co mp r e h e n si v e P e ace revenues. It accounts for 98 per cent of balance between national and regional agreement of 2005 marked a the revenue of the Government of interests that makes governance easier. bold experiment to develop a Southern Sudan. This makes Sudan, and About 40 per cent of the world’s peo- federal structure for a post- particularly Southern Sudan, one of the ple live in some 25 federal systems and 14 conflict Sudan. In 2011, this most oil-dependent countries in the of these (including Iraq and Sudan) have T experiment will be tested world. major petroleum resources. Federal when the people of Southern Sudan vote Managing oil can present tremen- countries account for about half of the on whether to become a separate country. dous economic and political challenges world’s oil and gas production. So while The issue of oil was at the centre of the in any circumstance, and doing so within managing petroleum in federal systems 2005 agreement and it will remain central a federal structure can be even more presents special challenges, it is a well- to the , North and South, demanding. But countries are not diffi- travelled road. whatever the outcome of the referendum. cult to govern because they are federal; The Forum of Federations has been leading a major comparative study of how Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, George Anderson is President and chief executive officer of the Forum of Federations.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

India, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, to become very centralized, even if, as in industry and gets the lion’s share of Pakistan, Russia, the United States and Russia, it was once decentralized. revenues. Venezuela deal with petroleum issues Sudan and Iraq are exceptions in this In Brazil, the federal government within their federations. While all these regard. In Iraq, the three provinces of owns the resource, but most of the reve- countries are federal, they differ enor- Kurdistan effectively manage oil and gas nues go to the states. So the negotiators mously: in their level of development, in in their territory, while Baghdad man- of the CPA were wise to put ownership how centralized they are, in the state of ages them for the rest of the country. In aside and to focus instead on the more their democracy, and in the nature of Sudan, there are special power-sharing concrete, and shareable, issues of man- their political institutions. and revenue-sharing arrangements for agement and revenues. This approach We have found that a key factor influ- petroleum between the North and could continue to be followed after the encing how oil and gas is dealt with in South. In both of these post-conflict fed- referendum, whatever the outcome, these federations is the extent of their erations, the current arrangements are though in the event of secession, the dependence on petroleum. In some of contested and could change Northern and Southern governments

these countries, oil dominates exports dramatically. might seek to have ownership assigned Federations and government revenues and, as a con- constitutionally to the central sequence, national politics. Ownership: an emotional issue government. 25 Sudan is clearly in this category, along Every federation must determine how it The key management powers over with Nigeria, Venezuela and Iraq; Mexico will allocate the ownership, manage- petroleum relate to the issuance of and Russia are close. In other countries, ment and revenue of petroleum exploration and production licences and such as the United States and Canada, resources. “Ownership” is perhaps the the specification of terms, including such there may be very large petroleum most emotionally-charged aspect of this matters as the possible role of interna- resources, but they exist within large, in that it is highly symbolic, but the para- tional oil companies and the local rich and diversified economies and so dox is that “ownership” often seems not employment or industrial benefits that are not usually very important in to matter hugely in how petroleum is an oil company may provide. These pow- national politics. In those federations actually managed or revenues are ers can be exercised by a government which are highly dependent on petro- shared. In federations such as India and department, a professional agency or a leum, the management of the petroleum Malaysia, ownership is with the states, state oil company, but in any case, the

industry and petroleum revenues tends but the federal government controls the major policy framework will be estab- SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 ah ll da b n a n i d l ed nure ed m oha m / / REUTERS

An engineer explains how a water treatment plant works at an oil processing facility in Abyei. Disputes between north and south over oil could erupt if disagreements are not settled before the referendum for independence in South Sudan.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

lished by legislation and ministers. tile exchange rates (undermining the Good macro-economic practice in The joint management arrangements non-petroleum sectors of the economy), oil-rich countries should aim to stabilize agreed to in the CPA were designed poor investments and use of oil wealth spending over time despite the poten- largely to suit the governments of Sudan (including providing consumers with tially huge swings in oil prices. This and Southern Sudan, rather than the 25 fuels and petroleum products at heavily means smoothing arrangements for rev- states of the federation. The producing subsidized prices), stop-go spending by enue transfers to the states, as well as for states do have a limited right to partici- governments (whose expenditures track spending at the centre. pate in the National Petroleum oil prices), and corruption (because the Too often in oil-rich federations, Commission when their interests are profits of oil production can be so high transfers to the states do not take this into involved, and they can object to con- and elites grab a big share). There are account. Expenditure smoothing is tracts, subject to arbitration or an cures for all of these ills, but they require probably more important than revenue override by the Commission. Also, both clear policy frameworks and political saving in a country such as Sudan, where federal constitutions establish land com- commitment. the needs for investment in development

Federations missions which are meant to involve all are so great. However, the challenge is to levels of government and could deal with Revenue sharing: a key issue make good investments in infrastruc- 26 some petroleum-related land issues. Given the centrality of oil revenues for ture, governance systems and education While a number of federations have governments in Sudan, a key question is which truly provide a return for future highly centralized petroleum manage- clearly the sharing and management of generations. ment, it is clear that in some cases this these revenues. The CPA’s sharing for- Good revenue and expenditure man- has been a source of major political ten- mula between the North and South will agement depend fundamentally on sion within the country and resentment certainly be reviewed after the referen- transparency and accountability in gov- towards the industry in producing areas. dum, whatever the outcome. It is likely ernment and this has often been a major Petroleum exploration and development the revenue-raising powers of states will failing in developing countries. Some can be done in ways that protect the local continue to be insignificant for most of federations, such as Brazil, have devel- environment and provide local benefits, them, given the nature of their oped tough fiscal responsibility laws that but too often some companies adopt economies, so they will depend over- require transparency and responsibility very low standards, especially in poor, whelmingly on transfers from the central at both levels of government. South

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 developing countries. governments. Attention should be paid Africa has written the basic rules on gov- Local people are on the front-line in to the adequacy, equity and macro-eco- ernmental financial reporting and these matters and they can have a very nomic principles of new revenue- procurement right into its constitution. different view from central governments, sharing arrangements with the states. There is also the very promising which may be heavily focused on reve- Adequacy means giving the states a Extractive Industries Transparency nue generation, even at the cost of fair share of resources because they will Initiative, which has been joined by sev- environmental damage. The experience be responsible for key aspects of educa- eral African countries, including Nigeria, in the Niger delta of Nigeria is an exam- tion, health and infrastructure which are the Democratic Republic of Congo, ple of how things can go wrong when fundamental to the country’s future. Gabon, Ghana, Guinea and Liberia. This local people are disempowered. Equity means treating all states fairly: focuses on transparency in the resource Providing a local voice in and benefits this is always a challenge in federations sector with accountability right down to from petroleum management can be because there are so many ways to justify the community level. fundamental to creating a positive con- a claim. Thus, in Southern Sudan, the text for the industry’s development and general transfer is currently shared Accommodating the referendum political harmony. equally amongst all states, regardless of After two terrible civil wars, Sudan estab- When the CPA was negotiated, most their population; while this may reflect in lished peace between North and South. states in the new federal Sudan had little part the problem of poor census data, it is The agreement was partly motivated by happening on the ground. Even today, clearly not optimal. the mutual interest in providing a cli- there are huge challenges in building In addition, the oil-producing states mate in which the country’s petroleum capacity at the state level to make the have two per cent of production reserved resources could be developed and there states reasonably effective politically and for them, so that in Southern Sudan the has been real progress in that regard administratively. However, a key issue most advantaged producing states since 2005. The country still faces great for Sudan, North and South, after the ref- receive total revenues per capita which challenges in terms of North-South, but erendum will be the role of the states in are substantially higher than those in the also within the North and the South. whatever new arrangements emerge. least advantaged non-producing states. After the referendum, whatever its result, While the discovery of major oil While it is important to give local popula- there will be a major review of arrange- resources in a country is usually cele- tions in producing areas some special ments. The country’s petroleum brated, the experience can soon turn benefits from the industry, finding the resources will be at the centre of this, and sour. Many oil-rich developing countries right balance is always a challenge. the examples of other oil-rich federa- have had poor economic growth and Developing the capacity of the Fiscal and tions provide lessons – both good and poisoned politics because of oil. Classic Financial Monitoring Commissions bad – that can help Sudan manage the problems include overvalued and vola- could be one way to advance this. risks and realize the opportunities.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Lessons learned from Africa

In Africa, only Ethiopia has tried ethnic-based federalism.

Supporters of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Federations Revolutionary Democratic Front chant their support after a speech by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. 27

by jaap de visser

ifty years ago, when African leaders first confronted the challenges of running their newly independent countries,

they faced another problem: SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 how to deal with ethnic F diversity. But the leaders were either unaware ukoya m

of, or generally turned a blind eye to, this as problem because forging national unity m was really their most pressing task to tho /

effectively govern the states they inher- REUTERS ited from the retreating colonial powers. Since then, a half-century of central- designed to accommodate that country’s A key lesson from African experience ization of power in African countries has ethnic diversity. The Ethiopian federa- has been that when a country readily generally not delivered political stability, tion divided itself along ethnic lines, acknowledges its ethnic diversity, let alone basic services to most of their even naming its subnational units, called through federalism or similar arrange- citizens. regional states, after the main ethnic ments, this generally leads to a decrease In recent years, in countries as diverse groups. This policy resulted in names in tensions among ethnic groups. But as Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sudan and such as Tigray, Somali, Oromia and this also depends on the specific nature the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Amhara for the regional states. of the federal design and the ability of ethnic groups have demanded political that design to respond to the ethnic- accommodation or a state of their own Ethnic accommodation related needs of the society in question. from their central governments. Similarly, during negotiations in the Diagnosing every political conflict To handle these internal conflicts – 1990s for a democratic South Africa, both within each society is important, and is and to solve other governance problems conservative Afrikaners and Zulu something that leaders of several coun- – some nation states in Africa created nationalists pressed for a federal struc- tries have failed to do correctly. The subnational units, such as states or prov- ture. While South Africa’s 1996 crucial question is “To what degree do inces, by granting subnational autonomy Constitution does not focus on ethnic ethnic politics pervade the politics of the to ethnic agglomerations in some form accommodation, its quasi-federal country?” The likelihood of ethnic differ- of federalism or other decentralized arrangement made important conces- ences deteriorating into outright model. sions toward this goal. This was also the political divisions depends on the histor- In the case of Ethiopia for example, its semi-federal constitution of the ical and political circumstances of each federal constitution was primarily Democratic Republic of the Congo. different society. Two African countries in which this diagnosis took place were South Africa Jaap deVisser is associate professor and project co-ordinator of the local government project and Ethiopia. For post-apartheid South at the Community Law Centre at the University of the Western Cape in South Africa. forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

Africa, it was widely predicted that differ- Africa have provided regional elites with constitution would not have settled for ences among the country’s 11 linguistic the means for political participation and anything less than entrenching the right groups would lead to strife. In fact, politi- representation in the leadership struc- of secession in the constitution. Not cal friction along ethnic lines has not ture. In both cases, the self-management acceding to that demand could well have turned out to be a major issue. of communities is further strengthened jeopardized a peaceful transition There is a direct link between institu- by policies that allow the use of regional The lesson that emerges from tional design and political behaviour. languages. The same is true inN igeria. Ethiopia, South Africa and Nigeria – and Comparative evidence suggests that the other countries around the world – is institutional structure of a country, such Allowing secession that diversity and an openness to plural- as its territorial design, goes a long way in However, although it has proved effec- ist politics is central to the success of shaping the regional, ethnic, religious or tive for Ethiopia to have designed its many emerging states in Africa or linguistic identities that form a basis for federal structure along ethnic lines, this elsewhere. political mobilization. Ethiopia does raise the highly contentious issue of Federalism is not a panacea for the responded to its multi-ethnic challenge whether a federal constitution should multi-ethnic challenge. The territorial

Federations by recognizing its ethnic groups and responding to their claims. By doing so, it 28 elevated ethnic identity to a primary basis for political mobilization. Of the 81 parties currently registered with Ethiopia’s National Electoral Board, 73 are ethnic-based parties that have their strongholds in the different regions of the country. Although it may be tempting to dismiss the proliferation of ethnic-based parties as the work of the ruling party, there is enough evidence to show that the opposition is also frag- mented along ethnic lines. SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 Accommodating minorities Whatever its success in Ethiopia – which is still a young federation – the Ethiopian ngs i h model is not necessarily essential for c

other countries to follow. A serious risk is hut ke mi that making ethnicity the main factor for / the organization of a nation-state can REUTERS cause the triggering of an automatic In March 2006, Nelson Mandela made a point of coming to the 60th birthday party for F.W. ‘ethnic solution’ reflex for all issues de Klerk, the last president of South Africa elected by whites only. Ethnic violence, which when one is not needed. South had been predicted for South Africa after the end of apartheid, did not occur. Africa has accommodated ethnic diversity without making ethnicity the basis for the organization of the country, thus avoiding conditions that include the right to secede. Many other structure of federalism might help to make ethnicity a rallying point of politi- countries forbid secession of a subna- avoid large scale ethnic conflicts but the cal disagreement and fragmentation. tional unit. Ethiopia’s constitution is the practical impossibility of creating an eth- Federalism has contributed signifi- first one on the continent that explicitly nically pure subnational unit brings a cantly to broadening the political recognizes a general right to secession. new tension: one between the majority participation of minorities. Sudan’s constitution provides for the and the minorities at the level of the con- Notwithstanding the conflicting claims right to secession for Southern Sudan stituent unit. The new subnational units about ‘true representation’ and the dom- through a referendum in 2011. almost always have their own minorities inance of a single party, the federal Canada’s Supreme Court held that as well (such as anglophones in French- system in Ethiopia has turned ‘obscured the province of Quebec could pursue speaking Quebec or Amharas in Oromia). districts’ into important units of govern- secession through negotiations if a clear To succeed in managing ethnic diver- ment with significant local majority of the province’s voters, voting sity, a federal arrangement must empowerment. In contrast to the selec- on a clear question, chose to secede. accommodate those who do not belong tive co-optation of individual ethnic Certainly, enshrining in a constitu- to the newly empowered regional major- groups by the previous regimes, the fed- tion the right of a constituent unit to ity. The challenge lies in recognizing that eral government has become more secede is fraught with pitfalls. But there the constituent units share the same diversified than ever in terms of ethnic may not be much choice if instability ,or problem of accommodating ethnic composition and most subnational even civil war, is to be avoided. In diversities that the central government is administrations are staffed with locals. Ethiopia, the political forces at play dur- experiencing, which calls for inclusive Similarly, the provinces in South ing the transition to the current politics, respect for national citizenship forumfed.org Sudan Special issue and full rights, regardless of minority sta- the central level are common. processes. Powers must be divided, and tus, within a geographic area. It has been a bitter pill to swallow for governance procedures must be The process is crucial in ensuring that some ruling parties in Africa to win an designed in the case of shared compe- the institutional arrangement that a election but lose a major city to an tences. Institutions of self-rule, country chooses mirrors its political real- urban-based opposition movement. especially at the subnational level, must ities, and is therefore acceptable to the Countries across Africa have dealt with be staffed with skilled administrators major contenders for power. Although in this differently. For example, one of and steered by wise politicians. These Ethiopia the blame for the failure of an South Africa’s nine provinces and the arrangements take years to mature and all-inclusive process falls on the opposi- City of Cape Town are governed by the require a highly skilled corps of politi- tion as much as on the ruling party, the Democratic Alliance, which is in opposi- cians and officials to make them work reality is that the militarily victorious tion to the ruling African National effectively. ethnic-based liberation movements, by Congress. The older federations found in highly and large, translated their political pro- developed countries often provide the gram into constitutional mandates. Opposition parties win big-city federal model for export. However, the

Fifteen years into its federal system elections recent interest in the federal solution Federations and 19 years after the end of the civil war, While intergovernmental relations often arises from undeveloped and Ethiopia must find a way to focus on between the central government and a underdeveloped countries, ridden by 29 building the forces of unity and common major city can be acrimonious at times, conflict, where human and physical identity among Ethiopians, which in fed- such tension is generally resolved resources are at a premium. eral terms is just as important as giving through an agreed discourse of co- This paradox – the countries most in expression, power and resources to the operative governance. need of a federal solution are least individual groups. This, in fact, is what In some other countries, that dis- equipped to rapidly deploy it – raises the distinguishes the Ethiopian system from course between the central government following question: how can the institu- the South African institutional response, and its capital city has not been fruitful. tional design of new federal systems which is the outcome of a more open, This has occurred in instances when the accommodate skills and resource negotiated compromise that did not take opposition party paradoxically won the scarcity? place in the context of prolonged civil majority of votes in the nation’s capital. war. In several countries this decade – A hub of experimentation including Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Uganda A complex system requires skilled politi- SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 The challenge of pluralist politics and Kenya – strong opposition parties cians and administrators. Capacity Pluralist politics do not come naturally first emerged in the capital or larger cit- needs to be built at all levels, by people at and must be learned. Decentralization ies and won elections in those settings, each particular level, and this poses a provides a good school for such learning but were prevented from taking power or tremendous challenge. For example, and opens opportunities for empower- otherwise thwarted by the respective rul- South African provinces are required to ment of marginalized groups. For ing parties of the central government. build capacity in local governments, example, South Africa’s representative The latter were unwilling to share power while they themselves face serious structures at all three levels boast an with another party running one or more capacity constraints. impressive record of gender representa- governments at the subnational level. In addition, the quasi-federal tion. Forty per cent of all local Such decentralized sharing of power is at constitution has introduced a very com- councillors are female. The jury is still the heart of successful implementation plex national institution, the National out, however, as to whether this has of federal or decentralized systems that Council of Provinces, which places the translated into increased access to ser- seek to accommodate diversity of identi- system under strain while it continues to vices for rural women. ties as well as of other political persuasions. explore its role in the intergovernmental In new democracies, the unhappy arena. In Ethiopia, top-level political will prospect that only one party, or power- Therefore, while decentralization offers and commitment at the centre helped sharing coalition, can be the winner of great potential for democratization in drive an early, massive and coordinated elections and the rest will be losers, can Africa, intergovernmental institutions effort of public sector capacity building be offset by providing space at the decen- and processes must be sufficiently credi- in the regions. Other countries would do tralized level for different parties or ble and equipped to absorb inevitable well to learn from this highly successful coalitions to govern. tensions between the different orders of mobilization of capacity, without which Once political space is shared, the government. such complex and often lengthy transi- realities of governing will force different As well, political leadership at all lev- tions cannot even get off the ground. orders of government to co-operate els must have the resolve to funnel TheA frican continent is fast becoming across jurisdictional and party lines. This intergovernmental disagreement a hub of innovation and experimentation gives real meaning to multi-party through agreed intergovernmental insti- where various homespun models of fed- democracy. But experience across Africa tutions and processes, rather than eralism and decentralization are being has shown how difficult it is to make plu- resorting to extraordinary measures, as implemented. Resource constraints, ralist politics work. A clear example is the has unfortunately been the more com- conflict and political ambivalence put tensions that exist between big cities and mon experience in Africa. countries that are exploring these issues their central governments in some Federal and decentralizing arrange- at a disadvantage. However, the need to African countries, on a continent where ments involve a complex set of look beyond the agenda of centralization strong ruling parties or movements at government structures, procedures and has never been greater.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue Building new institutions Forum partners work to create a decentralized Sudan.

GORDON SORO

Federations Gordon Soro is Undersecretary of Southern Sudan’s Local Government Board (LGB), an independent commission that 30 reports directly to the president of the Government of South

m Sudan. oru F In 2009, South Sudan’s Legislative Assembly passed the Local to the the to l a

ci Government Act, which provided the legal authority for creating pe S /

z local government councils in the 10 states of Southern Sudan. e i haf

l The Local Government Board is central to the complex process of de

Ab devolving powers and responsibilities from the central gov- . . A

m ernment to states and local governments in Southern Sudan. Issa

FEDERATIONS: What is the role of our ability to implement the Act. This has cially with respect to negotiations with SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 the Local Government Board in come about as a result of slow recogni- the National Congress Party (NCP) developing federalism in Southern tion by both federal and local levels. concerning Comprehensive Peace Sudan? In the localities, communities have Agreement (CPA) matters. SORO: The mandate of the Local not entirely welcomed the imposition of To date, the Local Government Board Government Board – which was estab- new local government councils (despite has been working with several interna- lished by the 2005 Interim Constitution the fact that local government structures tional development organizations, of Southern Sudan – is first and foremost and functions have been in place for a notably the U n i t e d N a t i o n s to advise the president on the organiza- long time – dating back to the colonial Development Programme (UNDP) tion and development of local period and beyond, especially if one through its Local Government Recovery governments in 10 states as a basis for takes the tribal administrative system Program, and the German-based GTZ, improving intergovernmental relations into account). But over time and because on a comprehensive program of admin- and decentralization. Given the existing of the long war and human displace- istrative capacity building for state and administrative and logistical capacity ment, these structures have become local administrators. constraints, our work is currently con- increasingly marginalized. ducted in close co-ordination with states Many regard the new councils as ‘for- FEDERATIONS: What is the future (in some cases, states are our de facto eign,’ or externally imposed bodies by of the Local Government Board? interlocutors). Our mission is also to the central government. What is needed SORO: Looking to the future, the LGB serve as a technical resource for the are more civic awareness programs and will certainly continue to play an impor- newly-created local government capacity building projects, as well as tant role. There is little doubt that when councils. ways to integrate elements of the tradi- – and if – North-South issues are ‘resolved’ through the 2011 referendum FEDERATIONS: What are the most tional tribal authorities. On the level of the Government of process, we should expect more inter- critical challenges facing the Local nally-focused pressure in Southern Government Board (LGB)? South Sudan, challenges have largely stemmed from a lack of political will, and Sudan. Hence, it is critical for the Local SORO: Despite the successful passage Government Board to prepare the stage of the Local Government Act in 2009, concern that the local government coun- cils do not have the capacity to handle for the future, to reinforce local capacity which established a legal framework to provide essential services to their citi- an influx of resources and responsibili- for the functioning of, and powers zens, and to set national standards for ties. This is compounded by the fact that related to, local government councils, developing localities, to serve as a clear- the Government of South Sudan is facing there has been a slow recognition of inghouse of information recommending several, indeed multiple priorities, espe- LGB’s mandate, which has constrained reforms and innovations.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

AMNA ABBAKER

Amna Abbaker is the Director of Allocation for the Fiscal and Financial Allocation and Monitoring Commission in Khartoum.

The Fiscal and Financial Allocation and Monitoring Commission (FFAMC) is an important institution for developing a federal sys- Federations tem in Sudan. First, its mandate is to set the criteria for dividing vertical resources – that is between the three levels of govern- 31 m oru

F ment – as well as the horizontal allocation of resources among the 15 northern states. It reports regularly to the presidency, to the the to l a

ci established by a republican decree, and the 2005 pe S

/ Comprehensive Peace Agreement. z e i haf l de A second task of the Fiscal Commission is to monitor deposits of Ab . . A national revenues into the National Revenue Fund as well as m

Issa ensuring that fiscal transfers to the three orders of government are conducted in a timely and efficient manner, and that they are using the resources for the designated purposes. SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010

FEDERATIONS: Five years after the Government of National Unity and of the FEDERATIONS: What is the future establishment of the commission, Government of Southern Sudan, and of the Financial monitoring to what extent has it achieved its leaders of the reconstruction funds. commission? objectives? A highlight of this has been frequent ABBAKER: There is no formal date for ABBAKER: Fortunately, most of the interaction between international NGOs the completion of the commission’s commission staff has had previous expe- (like the Forum of Federations) and the work. This commission is unique in that it is the only institution focusing on coor- rience in practical implementation of federal government in conducting fiscal federalism, having originally dinating the implementation of fiscal capacity building programs. Training worked for the States Support National federalism between the three levels of courses have been held in the imple- Fund, which was a mechanism for government and their related organs. implementing fiscal federalism. mentation of fiscal federalism and The work of the commission will con- It was 2005-07, the very important related fields. tinue to be relevant as long as Sudan is period, when the proposal of allocation implementing fiscal federalism. The 2011 referendum results will not change the criteria was made, and the technical FEDERATIONS: What are the main tasks and jurisdictions related to federal- work, principles and administrative challenges facing the fiscal commission? ism, it might only change the title of the issues were established. The more recent institutions. ABBAKER: The main challenges are: 1) a second stage has concentrated on set- lack of comprehensive, suitable and The mandate may be increased in ting principles and criteria to achieve accurate databases to reflect current, up- relation to wealth sharing of the national more equity in allocation between the to-date statistics on the states, which projects implemented in some states, or states and transparent distribution of hinders an equitable distribution of any other issues that influence the eco- shares between the centre and states. resources. 2) The lack of a fully effective nomic policies. Also, we established mechanisms to and efficient system for monitoring and Ho w e v e r, I d o n ’ t t h i n k t h e evaluation, which is needed to facilitate publicize information about support for Commission needs more power as such. the follow-up of revenues deposited in all orders of government, which we did the national returns fund; and to track What is needed is capacity development, by holding regular meetings attended by the transfer of shares to the three orders political will and strengthening of co- finance ministers from northern and of governance. ordination between relevant federal southern states, representatives of the ministries and the states.

forumfed.org Sudan Special issue

abdel aziz [from page 18] attention inward, as marginalized groups address similar demands of marginal- institutions, as well as building more in the east, west and north will be more ized peoples in the north, such as Darfur, robust systems for public administration vocal in demanding autonomy and simi- the East, and the people of the Nuba and financial management through per- lar concessions. This is especially the Mountains. Unless there are fundamen- haps the formation of a civil service case in Southern Kordofan, where I fear tal constitutional reforms to wealth- and college. that the National Congress Party would power-sharing, I do not foresee how the Remarkably, during the war and in only intensify efforts to entrench its north could hold together. the absence of any government, the power and its control more deeply, and In the case of a vote for unity, the only Sudan People’s Liberation Army liber- this would cause the people to resist. hope for peace and stability, again, is to ated areas and were actually more In order to mitigate these dangers, the have a new constitution and new federal- functional and effective at delivering ser- problems have to be addressed at the type arrangements that work to better vices to the people than is now the case. source. There needs to be greater fiscal accommodate the cultural, religious and Despite the lack of resources, we set up and political decentralization, compre- ethnic diversity of the country. This hensive constitutional reforms to would require a radical break from the

Federations advisory councils and other bodies that were more transparent, more account- guarantee these rights, and a genuine status quo and from the old policies of able, and better managed than what is commitment to implementation of divide-and-rule and of pitting one group 32 currently in place. agreements and to democratic gover- against another to create instability and nance. If not properly managed in a create distractions from the real federations: If Southern Sudan votes to comprehensive way, I am afraid it could problems. secede in the next year, how do you think intensify the Darfur war, and eventually For Southern Kordofan and the this will affect the balance of power and lead to the breakup of the north. majority Nuba people, we most impor- governance in the rest of Sudan, in par- tantly want to avoid being a pawn in a ticular with regard to the marginalized federations: What is your prediction for bigger strategic game of tug-of-war areas like Darfur, Southern Kordofan and Sudan’s political future over the next five between the north and south, and natu- others? years? rally hope that the political leadership in the state can overcome narrow party abdel aziz: If the south secedes, the abdel aziz: This depends on the outcome allegiances and unite around our com-

SUDAN SPECIAL ISSUE 2010 country will lose a critical check and of the 2011 referendum. In the case of mon interests of promoting peace and political counter balance, which will secession, which I believe will happen, development for the people of Southern have a big impact on border states and there will be – as I have stated –consider- Kordofan. other regions in the north. This will turn able intense pressure on the centre to

southern sudan [from page 20] shared rule and self rule. Similarly, likely to continue, putting demands on Southern Sudanese may want to look at Juba to enact wealth and power sharing The principal role of such courts is to be special mechanisms for specific func- legislation. the final arbitrator and thereby ensure tions that can be played by the traditional But the Southern leaders fundamen- the presence of a mechanism that is fun- authorities from different parts of tally continue to disagree about a damental to federalism, and which Southern Sudan. common vision or consensus about how distinguishes it from decentralized uni- to design a federally decentralized sys- tary systems – namely, the presence and Finding the best model tem that matches the needs of the participation of an institution that pre- This article touches on of some of the key people. There are some leaders who vents one level of government from areas of federal-decentralized gover- question, justifiably, whether this is the arbitrarily usurping the constitutional nance that Southern Sudan will need to right time to devolve power from the power of another. deal with in order to successfully handle central government, considering the real Another almost universal component the transitions that are coming in one priorities of maintaining security and of all federal systems is the presence of a form or another in 2011. The good news is stability, not to mention the considerable second legislative body such as a senate. that there is a plethora of options to learn resources that are required to run a fed- These chambers can moderate the and borrow from as Southern Sudanese eral system. potentially heavy-handed use of central find the model that works best for their While it may be premature to predict government powers that go against the vision and circumstances. the outcome to the referendum and the interests or preferences of the states, or a It can be argued that much of what resulting political realignments, it is cer- majority of states. Especially if South drives cohesion and a sense of shared tain that the next chapter of South Sudan becomes independent, such a identity in Southern Sudan has been the Sudan’s future will be defined by the body may be a useful addition to the perceived common enemy to the north. negotiations, debates, and discussions package of instruments for managing the Whether this is true or not, it is clear that concerning options and alternatives for balance that need be struck between tension among the Southern states is wealth and power sharing.

forumfed.org