Media Tablets: 2010 to 2014 Analyzing How Media Tablets will Change Personal Computing

CONTENTS REPORT HIGHLIGHTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MARKET OVERVIEW PERSONAL COMPUTERS (PCS) Desktop PCs Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects Notebooks Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects Price Competition Cannibalization Mechanism 1 Cannibalization Mechanism 2 Ultrathin Notebooks Tablet PCs Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects MOBILE PHONES Smartphones Non-Smartphones MOBILE INTERNET DEVICES (MIDs) Definition Analysis INTERNET TABLETS SMARTBOOKS SMARTPADS EREADERS Definition Market Size and Growth Prospects MEDIA TABLETS DEFINTION USE CASES APPLICATIONS Definition Browser Model Application Model IMPLICATIONS FOR VENDORS MARKET SIZING AND GROWTH PROSPECTS VENDOR PROFILES AND ANALYSIS APPLE: iPAD Company Overview Corporate Transformation Basis for Growth Fortuitous Timing Point of Inflexion Multiple Inflexion Points Ability to Execute Incumbent Media Companies: Common Requirements ‘Vendor Selection' Criteria Case Study: iPhone and AppStore Background Quality User Experience: Vertical Integration Powerful Business Strategy: Platform Approach Business-Critical Market ‘360-degree' Platform Model Increased Stakes for Market Entry Superior, Differentiated User Experience Critical Mass: Advertisers, Online Brands, Publishers and Content Providers iPad Specifications Product Variants and Pricing User Experience eReading Quality: Clearly Differentiated, Higher Quality User Experience Publisher Buy-in: Generally Positive about the iPad eBooks Reading Experience iBooks eMagazines: Wired Navigation Interactive Ad Example: Head and Shoulders Interactive Ad Example: BMW 82 eNewspapers: The New York Times Games Gameloft: Nova EA: Need for Speed Personal Productivity Out and About: Keyboard Desk-based: Wireless Keyboard Dock DELL:STREAK Product Status DELL Customization Analysis SAMSUNG: GALAXY TAB HP: SLATE History eReader Project Consolidated Media Device Market Gap: Between Smartphones and Netbooks Palm Acquisition: Rationale Windows: HP Slate 500 Tablet PC (Enterprise Market) webOS: ‘PalmPad' (Consumer Market) LG ELECTRONICS MOTOROLA SHARP: GALAPAGOS RESEARCH IN MOTION: PLAYBOOK ACER HTC ARCHOS ASUS EEE PAD TOSHIBA Early Innovation Libretto W100 Folio 100 LENOVO GOOGLE Background Rationale: Why a Google-branded Media Tablet? Develop New Digital Advertising Franchises Technological Mastery Changing Commercial Relationships User Interface Internet Tablets 3G Booklet Media Tablets Analysis SONY MICROSOFT The Past: Right Vision, Wrong Timing The Future: Two New Execution Options Develop a new, stripped-down OS Develop a branded Media Tablet in a similar way to Xbox PLATFORM PROFILES AND ANALYSIS ANDROID Android for Smartphones History and Introduction Impact on Symbian Android for Google TV Rationale Software Android for Media Tablets Android Release Schedule GOOGLE CHROME OS History Comparison with Android Market Introduction Strategy: Chrome OS Google Chrome OS: Product Features Fast Start-up Time Looks and Feels like a Browser Web Apps, not Client Apps Google Apps Trust the ‘Cloud' Trust your Internet Connection Opening Microsoft Office Documents (for example) Touch-enabled Multiple Storage Options Consumer Demand MAEMO History Target Market Maemo 5 Features Maemo Devices Analysis A Traumatised Company Strategic Options Use MeeGo License Maemo: OEM Licensing Strategy License Android Conclusion MOBLIN History Atom Processor Range Target Markets Atom Netbooks Entry-level Desktop PCs Smartphones Moblin Analysis MEEGO Current Status Target Market Segments First MeeGo Devices Analysis Target market is too broad Technical problems will be encountered when fusing to previously-separate software projects Merging two R&D teams and two developer communities will be problematical Software development assets are not ‘best in class' The MeeGo relationship is not as symmetrical as it could be Conclusion MICROSOFT WINDOWS EMBEDDED History Windows Embedded Windows Embedded OS Products: Overview Product Roadmap Windows Embedded Standard 7 Target Market Segments Touch Capability Windows Embedded Compact 7 Target Market Segments Touch Capability Analysis Product Performance Business as Usual - Pros and Cons Change in Fundamental Requirements Grow Embedded Device Business Most of the target device markets offer single-digit growth Google's Android OS products will severely cannibalize the Embedded Device OS Market Use Media Tablets to Enable of Growth Online Advertising Business Xbox Strategy MICROSOFT STARTER MICROSOFT WINDOWS PHONE Market Share Use on Media Tablets webOS MARKET ANALYSIS NEW PHASE FOR PORTABLE COMPUTING Difference between Media Tablets and Tablet PCs Development of the Portable Computing Market Background and History Past Development Trajectory Future Development Trajectory Emergence of Web 2.0 Emergence of Client Applications New User Groups Mass Market Buyers Internet Generation Implications CANNIBALISATION MECHANISMS Notebooks Smartphones Ultraportables Ultrathin Notebooks Netbooks MARKET DATA AND FORECASTS MEDIA TABLETS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Worldwide Shipments by Vendor Market Share of Top 12 Vendors Based on Shipments Market Share of ‘Apple and ‘Others' Based on Shipments Worldwide Revenues by Vendor Market Share of Top 12 Vendors Based on Revenues Market Share of ‘Apple and ‘Others' Based on Revenues Worldwide Shipments by (OS) Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Shipments Worldwide Revenues by Operating System (OS) Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Revenues Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Device Revenues Unit Shipments by World Region Market Share by World Region (Shipments) Revenues by World Region Market Share by World Region (Revenues) APPLE iPAD Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) DEDICATED E-READERS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) DESKTOP PCS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) NOTEBOOK PC Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) NETBOOKS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) TABLET PCS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) MOBILE PHONES Smartphones Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Non-Smartphones Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) MEDIA TABLETS SHOWN WITH RELATED MARKETS Worldwide Shipments Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' Worldwide Revenues Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' APPENDIX FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Market Forecasting Framework Model Potential Users (Pool 0) Prospective Users (Pool 1) First-time Users (Pool 2) Experienced Users (Pool 3) Committed Users (Pool 4) Key Considerations Value Proposition Starting Conditions Current Market Development Trajectory Adoption Dynamics Saturation Levels and Addressable Market Growth Drivers and Inhibitors Benchmarking using Relevant Markets Industry Data and Insight Constituent Markets: Worldwide and Regional Forecasts Tracker Markets Other Markets ABOUT THE AUTHORS

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Illustration of how the Performance of Notebook PCs has Increased at a Faster Rate than Desktop PCs Figure 2: Examples of Ultrathin Notebook PCs Figure 3: Examples of Tablet PCs Figure 4: Examples of Netbooks Figure 5: Examples of Smartphones Figure 6: Comparative Values of the Smartphone and Non-Smartphone Markets from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Figure 7: Examples of Non-Smartphones Figure 8: Examples of MIDs Figure 9: Examples of Products That Some Vendors call ‘Internet Tablets' Figure 10: Examples of ‘SmartPads' Figure 11: Examples of Leading e-Readers Figure 12: Market Segmentation by Use Cases: All End User ‘Use Cases' are Segmented into three Major Classes and 16 Sub-Classes. Shows Proportion of Use Cases that can be Addressed by the iPad and similar Media Tablets. Figure 13: Illustration of the Main Differences between the Browser-based web Model and the Application-based Web Model Figure 14: Worldwide Revenues of Apple Computers, iPhone and Related Products and Services, iPod and Music-related Products and Services and all Other Products and Services from 2001 to 2010 Figure 15: Worldwide Revenues for Microsoft and Apple from 2008 to 2010 (USD, Billions) Figure 16: Apple Platform Model Figure 17: Wired Magazine - iPad Application Figure 18: Wired Magazine iPad App (Navigation ‘Scrubber') Figure 19: Interactive Ad Example: Head and Shoulders Figure 20: Interactive Ad Example: BMW Figure 21: New York Times iPad App - Touch Menu Figure 22: iPad Version of the First Person Shooter Game (Nova) Figure 23: iPad Version of the Driving Game (EA) Figure 24: ‘Need for Speed' iPad App: Gamer can change gear by sliding finger over an on-screen gear shifter Figure 25: Apple iPad Keyboard Dock Figure 26: Apple iPad Email Application Figure 27: Apple iPad Calendar Application Figure 28: Dell Streak - Screenshots of Six Use Cases Figure 29: HP Windows Slate Positioning - Business Market Figure 30: HP webOS ‘PalmPad' Positioning - Consumer Market Figure 31: Sharp: Galapagos Figure 32: Pioneer: The Asus Ess PC (2007) Figure 33: ASUS Eee Pad EP 121 Media Tablet (Prototype Version) showing how the device can be attached to a keyboard dock and then converted into a Laptop Figure 34: Netbook Pioneer: Toshiba Libretto 20 (1996) Figure 35: Toshiba dual Touch Screen Libertto W100 Figure 36: Proportion of Worldwide Expenditure on Online Advertising - Google Platform and all Other Platforms (2001 to 2009) Figure 37: Google's Share of the Worldwide Online Advertising Market (2010 to 2009) Figure 38: Google Nexus One Figure 39: Google Chrome OS-powered Media Tablet: User Interface (UI) Concepts Figure 40: Nokia Booklet 3G Figure 41: Comparison of Worldwide Revenues: Smartphones vs. Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Figure 42: Sony Vaio W ‘Internet Book' Figure 43: Google Chrome OS - User Interface Figure 44: Moblin User Interface Figure 45: Microsoft Windows Embedded Product Roadmap (1H09 - 2H11) showing products aimed at Media Tablet applications. Figure 46: iPad Market Positioning (Performance vs. Portability. iPad is Positioned Relative to Desktop PCs, Notebook PCs, Ultraportable PCs, Ultrathin PCs, Netbooks and Smartphones. Figure 47: Three Views of How Media Tablets Might Affect the Portable PC Market Figure 48: Media Tablets: Worldwide Shipments for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Figure 49: Media Tablets: Worldwide Revenues for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Figure 50: Media Tablets: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Figure 51: Media Tablets: Market Shares of Top 12 Vendors from 2010 to 2014 (Based on Shipments) Figure 52: Media Tablets: Market Share of ‘Apple and ‘Others' Based on Revenues for 2010 and 2014 Figure 53: Media Tablets: Worldwide Market Shares for Top 7 Operating Systems (OSs) based on Device Revenues from 2010 to 2014 Figure 54: Media Tablets - Unit Shipments in Millions for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America from 2010 to 2014 Figure 55: Media Tablets - Market Share for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America (Based on Shipments) from 2010 to 2014 Figure 56: Media Tablets - Revenues for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America from 2010 to 2014 Figure 57: Media Tablets - Market Share for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America (Based on Revenues) from 2010 to 2014 Figure 58: Apple iPad: Worldwide Shipments from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Figure 59: Apple iPad: Worldwide Revenues from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Millions) Figure 60: Apple iPad: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) from 2010 to 2014 in USD Figure 61: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Shipments from 2010 to 2014 Figure 62: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Revenues from 2010 to 2014 Figure 63: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) from 2010 to 2014 Figure 64: Adoption Model Used by Generator to Forecast Technology-based Markets

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Examples of Desktop PCs Table 2: Examples of Notebook PCs Table 3: Worldwide Shipments for Media Tablets, Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks and Smarthphones in 2010 and 2014 (millions) Table 3: Worldwide Revenues for Media Tablets, Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks and Smartphones in 2010 and 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 4: Worldwide Shipments of Apple Hardware Products (Desktop MacIntosh, Portable MacIntosh, iPod, iPhone and iPad) from 2001 to 2010 Table 5: Worldwide Shipments of Apple Hardware Products (Desktop MacIntosh, Portable MacIntosh, iPod, iPhone and iPad) and all Software, Services and Other Revenues from 2001 to 2010 Table 6: Apple iPad - Summary of Key Specifications Table 7: Apple iPad - Product Variants and Launch Pricing Table 8: Dell Streak - Summary Specifications Table 9: Samsung Galaxy Tab - Market Positioning Table 10: Samsung Galaxy Tab Table 11: Samsung Galaxy Tab - Summary Specifications Table 12: Comparison of Features - HP Slate 500 and Apple iPad Table 13: Archos Internet and PC Tablets Table 14: Examples of Nokia Products that Use Maemo (N770, N800l N810 and N900) Table 15: Worldwide Revenues in USD, billions for Mobile Handsets (Smartphones and Non- Smartphones): 2010 to 2014 Table 16: Google TV - Summary of Main Launch Partners and an Explanation of their Contributions to the Initiative Table 17: Android Release Schedule (Nine versions from v1.1 to v4.0) Table 18: Relative Positioning of Android OS and Chrome OS Table 19: Nokia's Net Sales and Operating Profit for Major Operating Segments (2008 and 2009) Table 20: Comparison of Maemo and Moblin and the Corporate Objectives for Nokia and Intel Table 21: Benefits for Nokia and Intel if MeeGo is a Big Success Table 22: Microsoft's Target Device Market for Windows Embedded Operating Systems Table 23: Windows Embedded Standard 7 and Compact 7 - Pros and Cons Table 24: : Microsoft revenues breakdown for 2010 showing six major operating divisions and also a breakdown of revenues for Entertainment and Devices Division (EDD) including Generator estimates for revenues for Xbox consoles, Xbox Live, Microsoft-branded games, Zune, Mediaroom, Windows Automotive, Peripherals and Windows Embedded OS Table 25: Comparison between Microsoft's Advertising Business and that of Google Table 26: Summary of different Windows OS Products Table 27: Examples of Netbooks Using Microsoft Windows 7 Home Starter Table 28: Major Differences between Web 1.0 Model and Web 2.0 Model Table 29 Changes in Personal Computing: Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 (Browser Model and App Model) Table 30: Media Tablets: Worldwide Shipments for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 31: Media Tablets: Worldwide Revenues for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 32: Media Tablets: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) for ‘Apple' and ‘Other Vendors' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 33: Media Tablets: Worldwide Shipments for Top 12 Vendors from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 34: Media Tablets: Market Shares of Top 12 Vendors from 2010 to 2014 (Based on Shipments) Table 35: Media Tablets: Worldwide Revenues for Top 12 Vendors from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Millions) Table 36: Media Tablets: Market Shares of Top 12 Vendors from 2010 to 2014 (Based on Revenues) Table 37: Media Tablets: Worldwide Shipments for 7 Operating Systems (OSs) from 2010 to 2014 Table 38: Media Tablets: Worldwide Market Shares for Top 7 Operating Systems (OSs) based on Device Shipments from 2010 to 2014 Table 39: Media Tablets: Worldwide Revenues for 7 Operating Systems (OSs) from 2010 to 2014 Table 40: Media Tablets: Worldwide Market Shares for Top 7 Operating Systems (OSs) based on Device Revenues from 2010 to 2014 Table 41: Media Tablets - Unit Shipments in Millions for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America from 2010 to 2014 Table 42: Media Tablets - Market Share for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America (Based on Shipments) from 2010 to 2014 Table 43: Media Tablets - Revenues for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America from 2010 to 2014 Table 44: Media Tablets - Market Share for North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America (Based on Revenues) from 2010 to 2014 Table 45: Apple iPad: Worldwide Shipments from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 46: Apple iPad: Worldwide Revenues from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Millions) Table 47: Apple iPad: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) from 2010 to 2014 in USD Table 48: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Shipments from 2010 to 2014 Table 49: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Revenues from 2010 to 2014 Table 50: Dedicated e-Readers: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) from 2010 to 2014 Table 51: Worldwide Shipments of Desktop PCs from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 52: Worldwide Revenues of Desktop PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 53: Worldwide Average Selling Price of Desktop PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD) Table 54: Worldwide Shipments of Notebook PCs from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 55: Worldwide Revenues of Notebook PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 56: Worldwide Average Selling Price of Notebook PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD) Table 57: Worldwide Shipments of Netbooks from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 58: Worldwide Revenues of Netbooks from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 59: Worldwide Average Selling Price of Netbooks from 2010 to 2014 (USD) Table 60: Worldwide Shipments of Tablet PCs from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 61: Worldwide Revenues of Tablet PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Millions) Table 62: Worldwide Average Selling Price of Tablet PCs from 2010 to 2014 (USD) Table 63: Worldwide Shipments of Mobile Phones (Shown Separately for ‘Smartphones' and ‘Non- Smartphones' from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 64: Worldwide Revenues for Sales of Mobile Phones (Shown Separately for ‘Smartphones' and ‘Non-Smartphones' from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 65: Worldwide Shipments of Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 66: Worldwide Revenues for Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 67: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) for Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 68: Worldwide Shipments of Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (Millions) Table 69: Worldwide Revenues for Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 70: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) for Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Table 71: Worldwide Unit Shipments (in Millions) for Media Tablets, Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 72: Worldwide Unit Shipments (in Millions) for Media Tablets (Apple), Media Tablets (Other Vendors), Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 73: Worldwide Revenues (in USD, Millions) for Media Tablets, Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 74: Worldwide Revenues (in USD, Millions) for Media Tablets (Apple), Media Tablets (Other Vendors), Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 75: Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) (in USD, Millions) for Media Tablets, Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 76: Worldwide Average Selling Price (in USD) for Media Tablets (Apple), Media Tablets (Other Vendors), Notebooks, Desktop PCs, Netbooks, Tablet PCs, Dedicated e-Readers, Smartphones and Non-Smartphones from 2010 to 2014 Table 77: Constituent Markets for Worldwide and Regional Analysis and Forecasts