Media Tablets: 2010 to 2014 Analyzing How Media Tablets will Change Personal Computing CONTENTS REPORT HIGHLIGHTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MARKET OVERVIEW PERSONAL COMPUTERS (PCS) Desktop PCs Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects Notebooks Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects Price Competition Cannibalization Mechanism 1 Cannibalization Mechanism 2 Ultrathin Notebooks Tablet PCs Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects NETBOOKS Definition and Examples Market Size and Growth Prospects MOBILE PHONES Smartphones Non-Smartphones MOBILE INTERNET DEVICES (MIDs) Definition Analysis INTERNET TABLETS SMARTBOOKS SMARTPADS EREADERS Definition Market Size and Growth Prospects MEDIA TABLETS DEFINTION USE CASES APPLICATIONS Definition Browser Model Application Model IMPLICATIONS FOR VENDORS MARKET SIZING AND GROWTH PROSPECTS VENDOR PROFILES AND ANALYSIS APPLE: iPAD Company Overview Corporate Transformation Basis for Growth Fortuitous Timing Point of Inflexion Multiple Inflexion Points Ability to Execute Incumbent Media Companies: Common Requirements ‘Vendor Selection' Criteria Case Study: iPhone and AppStore Background Quality User Experience: Vertical Integration Powerful Business Strategy: Platform Approach Business-Critical Market ‘360-degree' Platform Model Increased Stakes for Market Entry Superior, Differentiated User Experience Critical Mass: Advertisers, Online Brands, Publishers and Content Providers iPad Specifications Product Variants and Pricing User Experience eReading Quality: Clearly Differentiated, Higher Quality User Experience Publisher Buy-in: Generally Positive about the iPad eBooks Reading Experience iBooks eMagazines: Wired Navigation Interactive Ad Example: Head and Shoulders Interactive Ad Example: BMW 82 eNewspapers: The New York Times Games Gameloft: Nova EA: Need for Speed Personal Productivity Out and About: Touchscreen Keyboard Desk-based: Wireless Keyboard Dock DELL:STREAK Product Status DELL Customization Analysis SAMSUNG: GALAXY TAB HP: SLATE History eReader Project Consolidated Media Device Market Gap: Between Smartphones and Netbooks Palm Acquisition: Rationale Windows: HP Slate 500 Tablet PC (Enterprise Market) webOS: ‘PalmPad' (Consumer Market) LG ELECTRONICS MOTOROLA SHARP: GALAPAGOS RESEARCH IN MOTION: PLAYBOOK ACER HTC ARCHOS ASUS EEE PAD TOSHIBA Early Innovation Libretto W100 Folio 100 LENOVO GOOGLE Background Rationale: Why a Google-branded Media Tablet? Develop New Digital Advertising Franchises Technological Mastery Changing Commercial Relationships User Interface NOKIA Internet Tablets 3G Booklet Media Tablets Analysis SONY MICROSOFT The Past: Right Vision, Wrong Timing The Future: Two New Execution Options Develop a new, stripped-down OS Develop a branded Media Tablet in a similar way to Xbox PLATFORM PROFILES AND ANALYSIS ANDROID Android for Smartphones History and Introduction Impact on Symbian Android for Google TV Rationale Software Android for Media Tablets Android Release Schedule GOOGLE CHROME OS History Comparison with Android Market Introduction Strategy: Chrome OS Google Chrome OS: Product Features Fast Start-up Time Looks and Feels like a Browser Web Apps, not Client Apps Google Apps Trust the ‘Cloud' Trust your Internet Connection Opening Microsoft Office Documents (for example) Touch-enabled Multiple Storage Options Consumer Demand MAEMO History Target Market Maemo 5 Features Maemo Devices Analysis A Traumatised Company Strategic Options Use MeeGo License Maemo: OEM Licensing Strategy License Android Conclusion MOBLIN History Atom Processor Range Target Markets Atom Netbooks Entry-level Desktop PCs Smartphones Moblin Analysis MEEGO Current Status Target Market Segments First MeeGo Devices Analysis Target market is too broad Technical problems will be encountered when fusing to previously-separate software projects Merging two R&D teams and two developer communities will be problematical Software development assets are not ‘best in class' The MeeGo relationship is not as symmetrical as it could be Conclusion MICROSOFT WINDOWS EMBEDDED History Windows Embedded Windows Embedded OS Products: Overview Product Roadmap Windows Embedded Standard 7 Target Market Segments Touch Capability Windows Embedded Compact 7 Target Market Segments Touch Capability Analysis Product Performance Business as Usual - Pros and Cons Change in Fundamental Requirements Grow Embedded Device Business Most of the target device markets offer single-digit growth Google's Android OS products will severely cannibalize the Embedded Device OS Market Use Media Tablets to Enable of Growth Online Advertising Business Xbox Strategy MICROSOFT WINDOWS 7 STARTER MICROSOFT WINDOWS PHONE Market Share Use on Media Tablets webOS MARKET ANALYSIS NEW PHASE FOR PORTABLE COMPUTING Difference between Media Tablets and Tablet PCs Development of the Portable Computing Market Background and History Past Development Trajectory Future Development Trajectory Emergence of Web 2.0 Emergence of Client Applications New User Groups Mass Market Buyers Internet Generation Implications CANNIBALISATION MECHANISMS Notebooks Smartphones Ultraportables Ultrathin Notebooks Netbooks MARKET DATA AND FORECASTS MEDIA TABLETS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Worldwide Shipments by Vendor Market Share of Top 12 Vendors Based on Shipments Market Share of ‘Apple and ‘Others' Based on Shipments Worldwide Revenues by Vendor Market Share of Top 12 Vendors Based on Revenues Market Share of ‘Apple and ‘Others' Based on Revenues Worldwide Shipments by Operating System (OS) Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Shipments Worldwide Revenues by Operating System (OS) Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Revenues Market Share of Top 7 Operating Systems Based on Device Revenues Unit Shipments by World Region Market Share by World Region (Shipments) Revenues by World Region Market Share by World Region (Revenues) APPLE iPAD Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) DEDICATED E-READERS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) DESKTOP PCS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) NOTEBOOK PC Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) NETBOOKS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) TABLET PCS Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) MOBILE PHONES Smartphones Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Non-Smartphones Worldwide Shipments Worldwide Revenues Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) MEDIA TABLETS SHOWN WITH RELATED MARKETS Worldwide Shipments Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' Worldwide Revenues Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' Worldwide Average Selling Price (ASP) Media Tablets Shown as One Category Media Tablets Broken Out into ‘Apple;' and ‘Other Vendors' APPENDIX FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Market Forecasting Framework Model Potential Users (Pool 0) Prospective Users (Pool 1) First-time Users (Pool 2) Experienced Users (Pool 3) Committed Users (Pool 4) Key Considerations Value Proposition Starting Conditions Current Market Development Trajectory Adoption Dynamics Saturation Levels and Addressable Market Growth Drivers and Inhibitors Benchmarking using Relevant Markets Industry Data and Insight Constituent Markets: Worldwide and Regional Forecasts Tracker Markets Other Markets ABOUT THE AUTHORS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Illustration of how the Performance of Notebook PCs has Increased at a Faster Rate than Desktop PCs Figure 2: Examples of Ultrathin Notebook PCs Figure 3: Examples of Tablet PCs Figure 4: Examples of Netbooks Figure 5: Examples of Smartphones Figure 6: Comparative Values of the Smartphone and Non-Smartphone Markets from 2010 to 2014 (USD, Billions) Figure 7: Examples of Non-Smartphones Figure 8: Examples of MIDs Figure 9: Examples of Products That Some Vendors call ‘Internet Tablets' Figure 10: Examples of ‘SmartPads' Figure 11: Examples of Leading e-Readers Figure 12: Market Segmentation by Use Cases: All End User ‘Use Cases' are Segmented into three Major Classes and 16 Sub-Classes. Shows Proportion of Use Cases that can be Addressed by the iPad and similar Media Tablets. Figure 13: Illustration of the Main Differences between the Browser-based web Model and the Application-based Web Model Figure 14: Worldwide Revenues of Apple Macintosh Computers, iPhone and Related Products and Services, iPod and Music-related Products and Services and all Other Products and Services from 2001 to 2010 Figure 15: Worldwide Revenues for Microsoft and Apple from 2008 to 2010 (USD, Billions) Figure 16: Apple Platform Model Figure 17: Wired Magazine - iPad Application Figure 18: Wired Magazine iPad App (Navigation ‘Scrubber') Figure 19: Interactive Ad Example: Head and Shoulders Figure 20: Interactive Ad Example: BMW Figure 21: New York Times iPad App - Touch Menu Figure 22: iPad Version of the First Person Shooter Game (Nova) Figure 23: iPad Version of the Driving Game (EA) Figure 24: ‘Need for Speed' iPad App: Gamer can change gear by sliding finger over an on-screen gear shifter Figure 25: Apple iPad Keyboard Dock Figure 26: Apple iPad Email Application Figure 27: Apple iPad Calendar Application Figure 28: Dell Streak - Screenshots of Six Use Cases Figure 29: HP Windows Slate Positioning