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Royal Netherlands Navy's Future Fleet Capabilities

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Royal Netherlands Navy's Future Fleet Capabilities NETHERLANDS DEFENCE ACADEMY BREDA, THE NETHERLANDS THESIS Royal Netherlands Navy’s Future Fleet Capabilities: A Continuation of Rational Thinking by Welmer Veenstra August 2016 Thesis Advisor: Prof. Dr. J.M.M.L. Soeters Co-Examiner: Prof. Dr. P.C. van Fenema Approved for public release, distribution unlimited (INTENTIONALLY BLANK) Approved for public release, distribution unlimited Royal Netherlands Navy’s Future Fleet Capabilities: A Continuation of Rational Thinking W. Veenstra Lieutenant commander, Royal Netherlands Navy Royal Netherlands Naval Academy, 2001 Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN MILITARY STRATEGIC STUDIES from the NETHERLANDS DEFENCE ACADEMY August 2016 Approved by: Prof. Dr. J.M.M.L. Soeters Thesis Advisor Prof. Dr. P.C. van Fenema Co-Examiner The views expressed in this thesis or those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Dutch Ministry of Defence or the Dutch Government. i (INTENTIONALLY BLANK) ii ABSTRACT This thesis presents fleet considerations and alternatives for the future composition of the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN). This is important because 80% of the Dutch fleet will reach their end of service life in the next two decades. A framework for conceptual analysis was developed based on the Strategy Triangle consisting of goals, strategies, and capabilities. Bounded rationality was applied to analyse the NATO, EU, and Dutch maritime security strategies, and the thirteen semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and experts. The revaluation of the Rational Actor Model is supported. The value of the Span of Maritime Operations model for navies to explain their strategic utility is reconfirmed. The research shows that all three naval roles (military, diplomatic, and constabulary) remain important. First, the RNLN is recommended to maintain the military role as primary tasking for the submarines and the large surface units. Second, to consider equipping the surface fleet with a crossover design. Third, to assign the constabulary role as primary tasking for the small surface units, to be equipped with a type of multipurpose coastguard vessel with military specific mission modules. Finally, in order to utilize the deepening cooperation between civilian and military organizations, the RNLN is advised to maximize its support towards both coastguard organizations within the Kingdom. iii (INTENTIONALLY BLANK) iv ABSTRACT (DUTCH) Deze thesis presenteert overwegingen en alternatieven voor de toekomstige vlootsamenstelling van de Koninklijke Marine (KM). Dit is van belang omdat 80% van de Nederlandse vloot in de aankomende 20 jaar het einde van de levensduur bereikt. Een raamwerk voor conceptuele analyse is ontwikkeld op basis van de Strategie Driehoek bestaande uit doeleinden, strategieën en capaciteiten. Beperkte rationaliteit werd toegepast voor het analyseren van de Navo, EU, en de Nederlandse maritieme veiligheid strategieën, en de dertien semigestructureerde interviews met belanghebbenden en experts. De herwaardering van het Rational Actor Model wordt ondersteund. De waarde van het Span of Maritime Operations model voor het uitleggen van de strategische waarde van marines wordt herbevestigd. Het onderzoek toont aan dat alle drie maritieme rollen (militair, diplomatiek en rechtshandhaving) belangrijk blijven. Ten eerste wordt de KM aanbevolen de militaire rol (gevechtsoperaties) te handhaven als de primaire rol van de onderzeeboten en de grote bovenwatereenheden. Ten tweede, te overwegen de bovenwatervloot uit te rusten met een cross-over ontwerp. Ten derde, als primaire taak de rol van rechtshandhaving (veiligheidsoperaties) toewijzen aan de kleine bovenwatereenheden en deze uit te rusten met een multipurpose kustwachtschip met militair-specifieke missie modules. Ten slotte, om mee te liften op de diepgaandere samenwerking tussen civiele en militaire organisaties, wordt de KM geadviseerd de ondersteuning aan beide kustwachtorganisaties binnen het Koninkrijk te maximaliseren. v (INTENTIONALLY BLANK) vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. WHICH FUTURE FOR THE DUTCH NAVAL FLEET? ............................... 1 A. GOALS, STRATEGY, AND THE ROYAL NETHERLANDS NAVY 1 1. National Power, Sea Power, and Globalization .......................... 1 2. Function of the Royal Netherlands Navy .................................... 2 B. THE PROBLEM AND RESEARCH QUESTION ................................ 3 1. The fleet of the RNLN ................................................................... 3 2. Defence budget restraints ............................................................. 4 3. Trends ............................................................................................. 6 4. Research question and objective .................................................. 7 C. PURPOSE AND SCOPE .......................................................................... 7 D. TARGET AUDIENCE .............................................................................. 8 E. READING GUIDE .................................................................................... 9 II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................... 11 A. STRATEGY AND DECISION-MAKING ............................................ 11 B. TYPES OF NATIONAL INTEREST .................................................... 13 C. MARITIME TRENDS IDENTIFIED ................................................... 15 D. NAVAL TRENDS IDENTIFIED ........................................................... 18 E. THE SPAN OF MARITIME OPERATIONS ...................................... 23 F. POLITICAL CONTEXT AND DECISION-MAKING ....................... 26 1. Three types of decision analysis models .................................... 26 2. Multiple streams and the window of opportunity .................... 27 3. Defence budget and Defence Industry Strategy ....................... 30 G. FRAMEWORK FOR CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS ........................... 30 III. METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH STRATEGY ...................................... 35 1. Research strategy ........................................................................ 36 2. Data collection and sample strategy .......................................... 36 vii 3. Data analysis ................................................................................ 38 4. Research quality indicators ........................................................ 40 IV. CONTENT RESULTS STRATEGY ANALYSIS ............................................ 41 1. Strategic concepts, not true strategies ....................................... 41 2. Division of national interests ...................................................... 42 3. Maritime and naval trends ......................................................... 44 4. Naval functions ............................................................................ 45 5. Requirements of naval forces ..................................................... 46 V. STAKEHOLDER’S VIEWS ON FUTURE RNLN FLEET ........................... 47 A. POLITICAL CONTEXT ........................................................................ 47 1. MoD Budget ................................................................................. 47 2. General Elections and Strategic thinking ................................. 48 3. Triple Helix, Innovation, and DIS ............................................. 50 4. International Cooperation .......................................................... 52 B. MARITIME TRENDS AND IMPACT ................................................. 53 1. From a multilateral to a multipolar world ................................ 53 2. Flow security and its impact ....................................................... 55 3. Impact of the proliferation of technology and weapon systems58 4. Cyber security and operations ................................................... 59 5. Civil-Military Cooperation ......................................................... 61 C. NAVAL TRENDS AND IMPACT ......................................................... 67 1. Passive survivability .................................................................... 67 2. Change in application of sea power ........................................... 68 3. Moore’s law, unmanned vehicles and sensors .......................... 70 4. Research and Development ........................................................ 72 D. FUTURE FLEET CAPABILITIES ANALYSIS ................................. 73 1. Vignettes ....................................................................................... 74 2. Alternative .................................................................................... 78 viii VI. REFLECTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................. 81 A. REFLECTIONS ...................................................................................... 81 1. Theoretical Reflections ............................................................... 81 2. Reflection on the maritime trends ............................................. 84 3. Reflection on the naval trends .................................................... 85 4. Future capabilities of the RNLN ................................................ 88 5. Personal reflections ..................................................................... 91 B. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................ 92 1. RNLN and naval planners .........................................................
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