Security through foresight The Royal vision for the future Foreword

Before you lies the ‘Vision of the Army’, with which the (RNLA) steps into the future. It has been written for everyone concerned with our security and is intended to promote dialogue about the future of our security apparatus.

The world around us is changing at a rapid pace and that has consequences for the RNLA too. Take technological developments, for example, as a result of which land operations will fundamentally change, or the increasing interconnection between national and international security. Meanwhile, new threats are emerging and old threats are resurfacing. The protection of our territory and that of our NATO allies, for example, has faded into the background over the years. In recent years, however, the importance of this task has once again increased. Unlike our recent missions, our participation in this task is not optional. The RNLA must be there if needed.

If it is to continue to play a decisive role in the future, the RNLA must be able to keep pace with the speed and unpredictability of change. It is not only the security situation that is volatile. Climate change, energy scarcity, demographic trends and economic stability all contribute to the unpredictability of the future. All of this has far- reaching consequences for our organisation and the manner in which we work. If the RNLA is to continue protecting what is dear to us all, we will have to make some fundamental changes.

In the 2018 Defence White Paper, the impetus was given for the broad lines of development of the . What does that mean for the RNLA? What other changes are necessary? And how can we ‘ Om ook in de toekomst implement them? As a follow-up to the Defence White Paper, this vision beslissend te kunnen zijn, moet describes how we envisage our future role in the security domain and de Landmacht in staat zijn om the path we will take to get there. mee te bewegen met de snelheid en de onvoorspelbaarheid van Leo Beulen veranderingen.' General Commander of the Royal Netherlands Army Where we want to be

Well-trained people, The connection between sophisticated technology and humans and technology effective concepts of operations is central The four core strenghts for the Our vision is of an army that is capable The strength of the RNLA lies in its Netherlands are: of delivering what is asked of us, under personnel and the fact that we always • Size: the Netherlands is sufficiently any circumstances. The Netherlands must operate amongst people. As a result, small to be agile, yet large enough be able to rely on its army. A credible we are able to understand what is really to create sufficient mass and make a difference; contribution to the protection of the going on, to have a lasting influence on • Technologically advanced: the Dutch territory of the Netherlands and of NATO people’s behaviour and to make people economy and knowledge landscape is requires an army which, if necessary, can feel safe. Not only are its personnel geared toward generating high-quality solutions; fight in the highest end of the spectrum indispensable to the RNLA of the future, • Multi- and transdisciplinary: the of force. Together with its allies, the RNLA so too is sophisticated technology. Dutch connect relatively easily across must also be able to contribute to conflict Technology is advancing extremely quickly different disciplines and institutional stovepipes to create crossover and/or prevention, stability and national security. and has a great impact on the battlefield. integrated innovations; The RNLA will do so with well-trained Furthermore, technological advances are • Connected: the Netherlands is one of people, sophisticated technology and a necessity, for example if unmanned the most globally connected countries and is widely considered a worthwhile effective concepts of operations. systems are needed to take over the cooperation partner. work of people due to a shortage on the labour market. The connection between Centre for Strategic Studies, humans and technology is central to the Playing to your Strengths. further development of the RNLA. This A Different Perspective on means increasing integration of humans Future Capabilities for the Royal Netherlands Army (2018). and technology, greater investments in technologically advanced systems and quicker integration of technological applications in concepts of operations. The essence of our vision

Humans conduct the combat, technology multiplies the fighting power and concepts of operations are used to orchestrate the combat. To be able to continue to guarantee this in the future, the RNLA will increase its adaptability, intensify cooperation with national and international partners, strengthen the connection between humans and technology and invest in both combat over long distances and operations in urban areas. United in trust; our identity

We, the RNLA, have a special task, which can demand our utmost. Therefore, we will continue to nurture our identity, our traditions and our culture of comradeship and trust. Leadership is the unifying factor and we act according to our core values: courage, dedication and resilience. We honour our dead, care for our wounded and support our veterans. Wherever we operate, we remain united by our values and by the knowledge that whenever we advance, we never do so alone. The challenges for future land operations

1 2 3 4 Future conflicts will be complex Hybrid confrontations: Technological superiority Sensors and systems: quicker, and unpredictable simultaneous efforts on several is crucial more precise, deadlier and fronts longer range

While the next conflict cannot be predicted, The rapid advance of technology means The increasing scope of detection we do know something about the nature of One example of hybrid conflict the future battlefield will revolve less equipment and weapon systems future conflict and the implications for land is the Russian operation in around the number of military personnel means that battles can be fought over operations. In future conflicts, adversaries Crimea in 2014-2015, which used and systems, but rather around superior increasingly long distances. Future will deploy different instruments of simultaneous attacks by unmanned effectiveness, striking power and the generations of sensors and firing systems power simultaneously, varying from aerial systems, artillery, hackers implementation of technology. The timely will make it increasingly difficult to remain economic undermining, cyber-operations, and , the disruption of availability of systems, fuel and energy unseen by opponents and to stay out of disinformation, terrorism and indirect electronic communication will play an increasingly important role in their sphere of influence. The persistent confrontations (proxy conflicts) to secret and the mobilisation of this regard. This will not be limited to state presence of drones, satellites, electronic operations and large-scale combat. Such sympathisers. actors: easy access to advanced technology sensors and social media means that future conflicts are expected to take place also presents small-scale groups with every unit runs the risk of detection and mainly in urban areas and to be volatile the opportunity to deploy advanced subsequent attack by precision weapons, due to rapid technological advances and technology on the battlefield and beyond. air defence, electronic jammers or cyber constantly changing tactics. Not only is a Hybrid conflicts do not have a clear The continuing technological arms weapons. The speed of such actions is large-scale conflict on the eastern flank of beginning or end, nor do they have a race will develop further in the future, increasing, because the most modern NATO territory a possible direct threat to clear front line or a clear distinction particularly in the fields of robotics, forms of communication make it possible the Netherlands, so too are the secondary between participant and observer. energy provision, artificial intelligence, to reduce the time between detection and effects of unmanageable flows of people in Military operations revolve around biotechnology and big data analytics. attack to practically nothing.Ensuring search of food and security, paralysis of the influencing the opponent or other parties that our decision loop (from detection digital network and terrorist attacks. by means of information/disinformation, to action) stays shorter than that of digital activities and force. In hybrid the opponent is essential to winning a conflicts, opponents work together down conflict. The development and further ‘Unmanned vehicles, robotisation, to the lowest levels in the domains of evolution of detection equipment and synthetic biology and artificial land, air, sea, cyber and space to achieve weapon systems currently in progress is intelligence present opportunities for society, but in the hands of the wrong the intended effects. In such conflicts, increasing the possibilities for supporting actors they can quickly become a terrorists and other non-state actors are land operations from the ground, as well as security risk.’ in a position to influence politics and from the air and the sea. At the same time, public opinion by means of manipulation, the rapid and far-reaching progress of air Translation of a quote from the cyber-attacks and attacks with easy-to- defence equipment in particular poses a Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, obtain technology, such as drones. The serious risk to helicopters and aircraft. As a Geïntegreerde Buitenland- all-encompassing character of hybrid result, air support for land operations will en Veiligheidsstrategie (2018). conflict thus makes the warfighting not always be guaranteed. method more complex. The challenges in short

The future will be characterised by unpredictability, complexity and the hybrid nature of conflict, in ‘The future will be characterised by which opponents generally operate on several fronts unpredictability, complexity and the hybrid nature of conflict’ simultaneously, while the entire world watches. In addition, the importance of technology is increasing. The development of cyber, robotics and artificial intelligence is increasing the effectiveness of sensors and systems, with greater scope, lethality, speed and precision as a result. What does this mean for future land operations? ‘De toekomst kenmerkt zich door onvoorspelbaarheid, complexiteit en de hybride aard van conflicten waarbij opponenten doorgaans gelijktijdig opereren op verschillende fronten.' The challenges of future land operations

1 2 Land operations: continuous Land operations always learning, innovation and occur in collaboration further development Future conflicts will demand an integrated Hybrid threats, unpredictability and approach of all means of influence and The Defence White Paper is clear in complexity demand an army that is power: political, military, economic and what we want to achieve together: agile and can find the balance between information-related. Land units form part of robustness and flexibility. This requires this and always operate in collaboration with - Remain safe in the Netherlands, the personnel, structures and processes national and international security partners. Kingdom, the EU and NATO territory. - Foster security around Europe (the that are characterised by continuous In addition, land units always work closely Middle East, North Africa and parts of learning and quick innovation at all with sea, land and air units, even at the lowest sub-Saharan Africa and West Africa). levels, and concepts of operations and levels. This integrated approach has led to the - Secure connections from the organisations that are never finished, but concept of multi-domain operations, which Netherlands as a hub and its lines of rather constantly adjusted. This requires a the army has adopted as the environment communication. fundamental change to the set-up of the within which it operates. Development of To this end, investments and RNLA organisation and processes. It calls this concept is currently in full swing, and it renewal are needed in the land for a transformation to become an open demands a high degree of interoperability, domain. organisation that can adapt quickly, that cross-domain training and joint development is focused on cooperation with external of concepts of operations. Netherlands Ministry of Defence, Defence White Paper 2018: parties, and in which development Investing in our people, and innovation take place at all levels, The intensification of international military capabilities and visibility (2018). especially at grass roots. cooperation has a far-reaching impact on the existing organisational structures. After Mission command is vital in this regard: all, our deployment occurs predominantly RNLA leaders set goals and priorities, in multi-national coalitions. In addition, whereby powers and mandates with we have deliberately opted for even more respect to personnel, equipment, intensive cooperation between Dutch organisation and finances are visibly units and the German armed forces and delegated downwards. This requires trust, growing cooperation between the armed fewer rigid regulations, and a quicker Services. The profile of the RNLA will shift and smarter approach to the retention, to a set of independent building blocks and procurement and availability of equipment modules that can be set up and deployed in and talented personnel. combination with modules from partners as required. 3 4 Land operations are high-tech Land operations at high tempo, wherever possible over great distances and often in urban areas

In future combat, superior technology inadequate situational awareness and Success in combat against a hybrid Operations in urban areas and protection will be of crucial importance and will no communication with headquarters. opponent requires capabilities that against the opponent’s long-distance change the face of military operations. It When cut off from their own troops and make it possible to exert influence at means require a change in the current will be possible, for example, for a threat surrounded by constant chaos, friction high tempo and over a great distance by ideas about operations in large formations to be identified by a mini-drone and and violence, military personnel must be means of information, cyber activities and and from static camps. In the future, instantaneously targeted by precision- able to carry out their mission using their force. This means investing in detection scattered, dynamic, decentralised and guided firing from a weapon system a own plan with little support or control equipment (such as drones, satellites small-scale (dispersed) operations will few hundred kilometres away. Logistic from above. Leaders must be well trained and electronic sensors), active protection be the norm. As a result of technological maintenance will be supported by so that they can also take independent means (such as air defence, counterfire developments and the combined unmanned aerial systems, 3D printers decisions. Excellent training and and digital protection), long-range means application of robotics and artificial and innovative and sustainable energy instruction, personal development, team of communication (such as satellite intelligence, the trend of combat over generation. Technological applications formation and leadership development communication) and striking power that longer distances will continue to evolve. regarding human performance will take will therefore continue to be of crucial excels in scope, speed and precision Networked systems make scattered shape through human-machine teaming importance. (such as smart long-range artillery and and integrated operations possible, and and human performance enhancement, drones). In this way, proportionate effect instead of organic units and structures, such as technological or biotechnological can be achieved in urban areas, while semi-autonomous units will be assembled improvements to the alertness or sight of collateral damage and civilian casualties on the basis of a specific mission. our military personnel. can be kept to a minimum. In addition, Interoperable supporting modules such investment in special forces is important, as logistics, fire support and medical In a hybrid conflict, however, the as is the integration of cyber activities and capability can then be added, right down to RNLA must also be prepared for situations non-lethal influence activities. All these the lowest levels. To shape this effectively, in which it does not have technological capabilities are effective in large-scale there will probably be fewer hierarchical superiority. Such situations could lead, hybrid conflicts and for deterrence, as layers in the future. Even so, there will for example, to disrupted supply lines, well as for smaller conflicts and terrorist always be a joint and multinational no possibilities for medical evacuation, threats. orchestrating level that determines the goals and plans the campaigns, an organisational level that makes plans and divides up means, and a combat level which is specifically assembled to suit the mission and which conducts the fighting. The consequences in short

Future land operations will be characterised by joint

action with strategic partners, will be high tech where

possible and low tech when necessary. In addition,

‘New technologically advanced, largely future land operations will take place in urban areas hybrid threats require modernisation.’

Translation of a quote from the Netherlands more often, will be at high tempo and will be conducted Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Geïntegreerde Buitenland- en Veiligheidsstrategie (2018). over long distances. This requires an organisation that

is continuously learning and innovating. To be able to

continue to play a decisive role in the future, the RNLA

will increase its adaptability, intensify cooperation with

national and international partners, strengthen the

connection between people and technology and invest in

both combat over long distances and operations in

urban areas. How are we going to achieve this?

If it is to have a decisive role in future so we would gladly discuss with you the combat, the RNLA must respond to the way in which we should shape our future. challenges and their consequences for We, the RNLA, trust that together we will land operations. The Netherlands must arrive at the right solutions. be able to rely on the RNLA’s readiness for action at all times with well-trained We are shaping our future together personnel, sophisticated technology and with our colleagues from the Royal effective concepts of operations. This Netherlands Air Force, the Royal means that the RNLA must be able to keep Netherlands Navy and the Royal pace with the speed and unpredictability Netherlands Marechaussee. They have of change. described their development in the studies 5e Generatie Luchtmacht, Sailplan A number of fundamental changes are and KMar Ontwikkelagenda, respectively. needed in order to achieve this. We Our intention is to shape the future RNLA have formulated answers to the above- on the basis of the following four lines of mentioned challenges and consequences, development: which serve as a guideline for the future. We do not, of course, have all the answers,

1 | Increase adaptability;

2 | Intensify cooperation with national and international partners;

3 | Strengthen the connection between humans and technology;

4 | Improve combat capability over long distances and in urban areas. 1 | Increase adaptability

Increase agility: switch Short-cycle procurement will become the norm. between flexibility and Where possible, new equipment will be procured in small batches every year, rather than a large robustness amount all at once, so that new technology can In order to restore striking power, a better be implemented quickly. Focusing on retention balance will be sought between fighting and on accelerated, more flexible recruitment power and supporting capabilities. Fighting and acquisition will increase agility and power and supporting means such as scalability, while the availability of personnel and engineering, intelligence, logistics and equipment will also be improved. operational cyber capability will be placed under unified leadership at unit level as More room for CD&E right far as possible. In addition, responsibility down to the lowest levels for personnel, equipment and finance will be decentralised. Data and decision- There will be more time and space for concept making should be automated as far as is development and experimentation (CD&E). permissible. Flexibility will mean that the Innovation primarily takes place at the lowest culture, structures and processes of the levels, where operational problems and young RNLA have a greater focus on speed, agility creative thinkers come together. It is up to the and scalability and that rules are greatly commanders to stimulate and facilitate the reduced. innovation and problem-solving abilities at the lowest levels, for example by delegating Faster and more flexible financial matters and encouraging contact with recruitment of personnel and national and international security partners, knowledge institutes and industry. By combining procurement of means this with simple and smart procurement The RNLA endorses the idea of adaptive processes, we will make it possible to acquire armed forces and is developing smart and new technology and integrate it into our realistic ways to recruit personnel and to organisation and working methods. procure and provide means. Examples include the deployment of reserves, a Innovation in a safe range of flexible contracts that better meet the needs of personnel, cooperation environment with industry, and on-call contracts for The delegation of responsibilities for personnel, drones, operators and a plethora of organisation, equipment and finance will not services and equipment. When recruiting affect legitimacy, effectiveness or safety. The new personnel, education level, diversity, operational can-do mentality will be in balance functionality and customisation are more with the thorough understanding and analysis important than the enforcement of strict of threats and risks. A safety network will general requirements. The procurement anchor a safe approach to work throughout the and availability of equipment and spare organisation. parts will be simplified and accelerated. 2 | Intensify cooperation with national and international partners

A reliable ally transit country and the required host nation The RNLA of the future must be able to support, far-reaching cooperation is key. Fixed contribute credibly to the constitutional structures, on-call and scalable capabilities, tasks of the Netherlands armed forces. and better cooperation are needed for This means in particular that the degree the Netherlands to fulfil the task of transit of readiness for the first main task will be port for allied troops. The RNLA remains a increased. Agreements made with NATO and reliable partner for government authorities the EU provide frameworks and direction in the security domain and provides a major for the acquisition of new capabilities. contribution in the task of increasing national For the Netherlands, the military cooperation within NATO forms the Using the additional budget provided and security and national resilience. cornerstone of European security. the findings of the 2018 Defence White Deterrence and collective defence Paper, the first steps will be taken towards are the guiding principles of this Optimal interoperability cooperation. We continue to adhere bringing the RNLA more into balance. In to the agreements made for our the longer term, deployment stocks will be with partners further development, our readiness brought up to standard and operational The RNLA will intensify joint training and and our operations. NATO’s current priority goals in this regard are clear: a readiness will be put in order. In this way, coordination of procedures with strategic heavy infantry brigade, joint ISR and a the RNLA can respond to the NATO and EU partners to increase interoperability with focus on joint enabling capability for requirement for military contributions with regard to equipment, procedures and culture, strategic mobility. sufficient escalation dominance and short such as is the case with the German armed Netherlands Ministry of Defence, response times. At the same time, the RNLA forces. When replacing equipment, inter- parliamentary letter contributing to a credible deterrence to operability with partners is of key importan- ‘NATO Defence Planning Capability Review’ opponents who threaten the interests of the ce, particularly with regard to command & (5 July 2018). Netherlands and its allies. control (C2) and communications. As there are multiple partners in various domains, the principles of simplicity, security and versatility Connected with the security apply to make cooperation with these part- network and outwardly focused ners possible in all areas. The RNLA is part of the multinational security system and will thus continue to actively seek connection with national and Optimal cooperation with other international parties in the security domain, Defence elements such as government partners, universities The RNLA of the future will endorse the ideas and industry. For the development of new of multi-domain operations and the inextri- concepts of operations and technology, cable connection of land operations with, for the RNLA will involve people, knowledge example, aerial combat and reconnaissance and ideas from outside the organisation. systems, GPS satellites in space, fire support Consequently, the RNLA will be more from the sea, and protection against hacker outwardly focused, which will lead to a attacks. The RNLA therefore strives for op- more open character. In the context of both timal cooperation right down to the lowest the increasing importance of the task of levels between sea, land, air and cyber units. The RNLA is already working on renewing its mindset, capabilities and concepts of operations. We are 3 | Strengthening the connection taking the following concrete measures: between people and technology

RNLA invests in reinforcement learning and therefore invests in strategic through technology thinking, academic training, analytical and Over the next few years, the RNLA will problem-solving skills and reflection. As be investing in sophisticated technology a result, our leaders are more effective for detection (drones and electronic both administratively and operationally. 1 2 sensors), active protection (air defence, In future combat, leaders with a decisive counterfire and digital protection), means role will be those who are determined DRONES EXPERTISE WILL BE THE ROBOT AND AUTONOMOUS of communication and striking power over and independent, as well as creative and SYSTEMS CAPABILITY OF THE STRENGTHENED IN THE RNLA 13TH LIGHT BRIGADE WILL BE AVIATION SECTION longer distances. Additionally, investments innovative, and who are able to ensure AUGMENTED (CLAS VLIEGBEDRIJF) will be made in special forces and the that their personnel operate in a close- integration of cyber activities and non- knit team with a strong problem-solving lethal influencing activities. For the longer capability. Basic training remains a high term, the RNLA will focus on researching, priority in the RNLA’s readiness plans. testing and implementing autonomous systems and robots, artificial intelligence, Giving our personnel big data, cyber and digitalisation, perspective, respect and trust nanotechnology, biotechnology, In the most extreme cases, the RNLA sustainable forms of energy and human- requires its personnel to fight in harsh 3 THE EXPERIMENTAL ENVIRONMENT A COUNTER DRONE MEASURES 4 machine teaming. The norm for these conditions, endangering their own lives, to FIELD LAB SMART BASE WILL BE TEAM WILL BE SET UP AT THE developments will be far-reaching protect the interests of the Netherlands. ENHANCED, FOR EXAMPLE IN NETHERLANDS GROUND-BASED RELATION TO AUTONOMOUS AIR DEFENCE COMMAND cooperation with knowledge institutes, It is therefore essential that the RNLA LOGISTICS, ALTERNATIVE educational institutions and the business offers its personnel perspective, shows PROPULSION AND ENERGY community. them respect and puts its trust in them. There are many ways of doing this and this Schooling and training for discussion must be extended much further. younger-generation leaders, It covers aspects such as employment people and teams conditions, but also meaningful work, The RNLA will invest in schooling and fully staffed units, proper equipment training techniques that are more suited and sufficient training. The RNLA expects to young generations. This means further professionalism of its personnel. In return, development in virtual training and personnel should be able to expect good 5 AN EXPERIMENTAL THE LAND WARFARE CENTRE 6 ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SET WILL EXPERIMENT WITH simulation, serious gaming, distance personnel policy, suitable equipment and UP FOR ‘INFORMATION AS COMMAND AND CONTROL/ learning and investing in new technological training opportunities. The RNLA sets great A WEAPON’ FOR CYBER, BIG ORCHESTRATION CAPABILITY applications. At the same time, training in store by tradition, esprit de corps and the DATA, THE ELECTROMAGNETIC FOR MULTI-DOMAIN the field must remain realistic, challenging value of its special unique identity, and will SPECTRUM AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPERATIONS FOR INFLUENCING and focused on building close-knit teams. continue to do so in the future. In addition, the RNLA will intensify the development of its personnel. The RNLA applies the principle of lifelong 4 | Improve capabilities in combat over long distances and in urban areas

Training in combat over long Cyber effects are available distances and in urban areas to the commander

The RNLA will intensify training for The RNLA is investing in capabilities and conducting combat at a high tempo over concept development for influencing longer distances in a hybrid context. This behaviour and protecting against means that right down to the lowest levels, cyberattacks, manipulation and training in integrated intelligence, fire disinformation. In the operational domain, support and protection must be carried out commanders at various levels will be able with other elements of the armed forces. to realise defensive and offensive cyber When training in an urban environment, it effects as well as those for intelligence must be possible to switch quickly between purposes. In this domain too, far-reaching fighting, de-escalating and winning cooperation is needed with other Services, trust. Alongside combat, interaction is an ministries and international partners. effective way to achieve the desired goals. Operations in an urban area and protection against enemy long-range means require The RNLA adapts constantly investment in training for networked, scattered, decentralised and small-scale The operations and functioning of the (dispersed) operations. The further RNLA are under constant development. development of techniques for active The organisation is actually a ‘permanent and passive protection against enemy beta version’ of itself, whereby detection means is also important, such as innovation is just as important as (digital or electromagnetic) camouflage, readiness and deployment. We must deception or the use of information or be able to constantly incorporate the disinformation. latest technology, tactics and techniques into our daily operations and business management. Our concepts of operations are continuously evaluated and amended on the basis of new insights into opponents’ operations. In conclusion

This vision of the RNLA will help us to take joint decisions to keep the Netherlands secure. I would gladly discuss with you how we approach the future. To arrive at an effective security policy, we need all of society and we need to work together to find solutions.

At the RNLA, we work on our innovation every day. Concrete goals are ‘I would gladly discuss formulated and concepts and activities are developed. This document with you how we approach provides a strategic guideline. Commanders will be given the authority, frameworks and means to get on with the job. These initiatives and the future.’ results will be communicated extensively, both within the organisation and beyond. We cannot change overnight, though. This means that we will now invest in the current capabilities of the RNLA, so that we can continue performing our tasks responsibly. At the same time, we will work to build our future capabilities, including renewed concepts and a strong combination of advanced technology and the indispensable human factor. These investments and further developments are intrinsically connected; focusing on only one of the two is not sufficient.

I am convinced that with this vision we will take a course that means we continue to play a decisive role in the future. We are deployable in all types of modern conflict: close to home, within the borders of allied territory, and if necessary anywhere in the world. The future will be characterised by unpredictability and complexity. As the RNLA, we will respond with advanced technology, renewed concepts, but above all ourselves, as people. That is what makes the RNLA special and what the Netherlands can expect of us.

Leo Beulen Commander of the Royal Netherlands Army 32

Contact This is a publication of the Commander of the Royal Netherlands Army November 2018

Royal Netherlands Army Ministry of Defence Kromhout Barracks | Herculeslaan 1 3584 AB | | K09/10 P.O. Box 90004 | 3509 AA | Utrecht | The Netherlands | MPC 55A

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