EAST HERTS COUNCIL

NON-KEY DECISION – 15/13

REPORT BY EXECUTIVE MEMBER FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL PUBLIC CONSULTATION: HERTFORDSHIRE RAIL STRATEGY, JUNE 2015

WARD(S) AFFECTED: All

Purpose/Summary of Report

 The purpose of this report is to detail the public consultation by Hertfordshire County Council on its proposed Rail Strategy and to agree this Council‟s response to such proposals.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION: that Hertfordshire County Council be informed that East Herts Council:

(A) supports the principle of a revised Rail Strategy for Hertfordshire and, likewise, the principle of its key themes and conditional outputs;

(B) considers that the first of the highest ranking Network-Wide Conditional Outputs should be expanded to include Princess Alexandra Hospital, Harlow, Essex, as this hospital also serves many East Herts residents in addition to the other listed Hertfordshire-based hospitals and Mount Vernon which, like Princess Alexandra, also lies outside the county;

(C) points out that, in respect of the double track proposals as part of the Crossrail 2 scheme regarding the ‘reinstatement of a second platform at Ware’ (page 40), this is a factual inaccuracy as the station has only ever had one platform;

(D) objects to the inclusion of wording aimed at increased development in the East Herts settlements with stations on the Hertford East Branch Line (St Margarets/Stanstead Abbotts; Ware; and Hertford) as part of the delivery of Crossrail 2 for the reasons given at paragraphs 2.30 to 2.37 of this report;

(E) considers that, in respect of Crossrail 2 proposals, while this Council supports the principle of the scheme’s provision, the Rail Strategy should recognise the serious constraints that were identified in the Council’s response to TfL’s Crossrail 2 consultation (link provided at the foot of this report) regarding the potential delivery of that scheme in East Herts; and

(F) points out the omission of the text

‘TOP PRIORITY - Short term: secure better long distance connections from Stevenage to the north from the new Intercity Trains franchise and progress comprehensive development of Stevenage Transport Hub to support Stevenage’s increasing importance as a growing population and employment centre, and its enhanced role as an interchange hub.’

from the final Top Priorities table in Section 5.2. It is acknowledged that this text does appear in the East Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities list (page 77); Figure 5.2; and the Action Plan Table (page 86); however, this Council considers that its inclusion in the final Top Priorities table is essential to ensure the delivery of several of the aims of the Rail Strategy.

1.0 Background

1.1 This report is concerned with the current public consultation by Hertfordshire County Council (HCC) on its proposed Rail Strategy.

1.2 Rail is an integral part of Hertfordshire‟s transport network and has a key role to play in offering movement choices to the population of the county for work and leisure purposes. It is also seen as fundamental in supporting the county‟s economy and aspirations for the future.

1.3 The rail network will be undergoing significant change over the next 30 years across the country. For Hertfordshire, several rail franchises will be subject to renewal and a number of major rail schemes (either committed or under consideration) could have implications for the county. Several of these schemes could have

an impact, either direct or indirect, on the district of East Herts and its residents.

1.4 HCC considers that the time is now right to replace its current Rail Strategy, 2011, with an updated and refreshed document to reflect the fast changing position and to maximise the potential for influence on investment decisions and future development of the rail network.

1.5 To aid the production of a new Strategy, HCC appointed consultants, Arup, in March 2014 to undertake a Hertfordshire Rail Strategy Study. The Rail Strategy Report, which is resultant from that study, underpins the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy 2015 current Consultation Document.

1.6 Full versions of the both the consultation document and all its supporting documents are available via the link at the foot of this report. The consultation closes on 4th August 2015.

2.0 Report

2.1 The purpose of the consultation is to seek views on the emerging Hertfordshire Rail Strategy.

2.2 Transport, including rail, has and will continue to play a key role in maintaining Hertfordshire‟s attractiveness as a place where people want to live and work. Recent and emerging national and local strategies, together with forecast population trends, point to the continuation of historical growth in Hertfordshire and neighbouring areas, with ever increasing pressures on the county‟s existing transport system. Central government projections indicate that the strategic road and rail networks will become increasingly congested if nothing, or even a minimum, is done and consequently improvements will be necessary.

2.3 The Hertfordshire Rail Strategy is therefore required to ensure that the railways in Hertfordshire will be in a position to support economic growth and development. This should ensure that investment priorities for the county are agreed for the next fifteen to twenty years and beyond.

2.4 The Rail Strategy is intended to be the mechanism which sets the strategic framework against which decisions regarding future franchises and investment in key elements of infrastructure can be identified and prioritised. Specifically, the strategy will be used to

influence the rail industry‟s strategy development process, such as Network Rail‟s Long Term Planning Process, and ensure that conditional outputs feed through into key documents such as the Government‟s Initial Industry Plan (2016) and also for the High Level Output Specification (HLOS) for Control Period 6 (2019- 2024), which is due to be published during summer 2017. It will further inform the specifications for all local rail franchises as and when they are retendered.

2.5 Throughout the development of the draft Rail Strategy, various stakeholder consultation events have been held. Officer input from this Council has contributed to its development in the process leading to the publication of the current consultation document.

2.6 The draft Strategy as now presented focusses on four key themes (or development objectives):

 To support competitiveness, improvements in links to the rest of the country are recommended to maximise benefits from the agglomeration effect that better transport connections between centres can bring;

 To support economic growth, the strategy comprises a number of interventions that improve the rail service for commuting trips from Hertfordshire;

 To address sustainability, the strategy proposes improvements to east-west orbital movement by public transport; and

 To support population growth, the strategy includes recommendations for the development of strategic transport hubs around key stations.

2.7 The draft Strategy recognises that there are a number of independent rail corridors running (generally south-north) through the county, which are operated under different franchised operators. Likewise, Network Rail treats each corridor as a discrete route with its own demand pressures and capacity and investment priorities, many of which are driven by considerations outside the county. Therefore, the draft Rail Strategy adopts this corridor approach with individual priorities identified, while also developing an overall coordinated approach to deal with network- wide topics, such as east-west movement, station access, etc.

2.8 The rail corridors passing through the county are illustrated in the

Strategy as follows:

2.9 In understanding the development of the overall strategy, it is important to recognise the concept of „Conditional Outputs‟. These are stated by HCC to be “designed to articulate a vision or aspiration for the future rather than a final recommended project or scheme, and are conditional on affordability and a value for money business case being determined”.

2.10 Network Rail defines them as:

A statement of the long term planning aspirations for the level of rail service provided. They are required to inform future investment decisions and are not constrained by considerations of cost and deliverability.

2.11 Conditional Outputs can be expressed in terms of:

 Capacity: what capacity the railway could provide to a market or flow (e.g. number of trains, train length); and

 Adequacy: the level of service that could be provided (e.g. journey time, rolling stock quality, facilities, and integration with

other modes of transport).

2.12 These Conditional Outputs have helped to shape the strategy for each of the rail routes within Hertfordshire and for the network wide aspirations. As these Conditional Outputs will feed into future funding processes, it is important that these are well evidenced and must meet the overall development objectives (see paragraph 2.6 above).

2.13 The highest ranking of the top scoring Conditional Outputs for the network-wide element of the draft Strategy have been identified as to:

o Improve rail access to key Hertfordshire employment centres: Watford, Stevenage, Hemel Hempstead, St Albans and Welwyn Garden City; and hospitals: Welwyn Garden City (QE2), Stevenage (Lister), Hertford (County), Watford (General), St Albans (City), Hemel Hempstead and Mount Vernon.

o Develop options to provide for east-west movement within Hertfordshire that are competitive with car.

o Ensure that rail freight growth does not impact on required peak and off-peak passenger services.

o Encourage more balanced use of rail stations across Hertfordshire to maximise use of existing infrastructure, without losing focus on those with the highest demand

o Accommodate forecast growth in rail commuting demand to at least maintain current rail mode share

o Improve connectivity to external non-London employment centres: Cambridge, Milton Keynes, Oxford, Bedford, Luton

o Improve connectivity between key Hertfordshire stations and important long distance destinations to the north including, but not limited to, Newcastle (ECML), Manchester (WCML) and Nottingham (MML).

o Improve rail services and promote rail use on corridors where relatively small changes in journey time or frequency could make rail more competitive

2.14 Whilst generally supportive of these Conditional Outputs, it is

considered that the first bullet point should be expanded to include Princess Alexandra Hospital in Harlow, Essex, as many East Herts residents are treated at that location as well as other Hertfordshire based hospitals and Mount Vernon, which also lies outside the county.

2.15 It should be noted that the Network-Wide Topics priorities in the draft Rail Strategy cover the whole of Hertfordshire and therefore, at a more detailed level, Line Specific Conditional Outputs have also been identified. For East Herts, the routes that directly affect the district include the West Anglia Main Line and the East Coast Main Line (via the Hertford Loop into London Moorgate/Kings Cross and connections to Stevenage to the Main Line itself). Although other lines in the county are also considered in detail in the draft Strategy, they have little direct impact on East Herts residents and businesses; therefore, this report primarily focusses on the proposals most likely to have implications for this district.

2.16 In the draft Strategy, in relation to the Highest Ranking Line Specific Conditional Outputs, it actually transpires that all of the top six relate to either the West Anglia Main Line or the East Coast Main Line. These Conditional Outputs are stated to be:

West Anglia Main Line

• Address physical constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast rail demand on the WAML;

• Provide sufficient rail capacity on the WAML for forecast demand to and from neighbouring growth areas such as Essex and East Cambridgeshire, as well as to London.

East Coast Main Line (including Hitchin to Cambridge)

• Address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast rail demand on the ECML;

• Maintain or improve level of service for long distance services on the ECML and improve the range of directly served destinations including, but not limited to, Newcastle, Edinburgh, Durham, Leeds and York;

• Ensure that there is an adequate level of service on the Hitchin to Cambridge Line to maintain connectivity between Cambridge and the ECML;

• Ensure sufficient services are provided to Cambridge from key stations in Hertfordshire.

2.17 Having established these key Conditional Outputs, the study then progresses to the development of potential interventions to address each issue raised. These (committed, planned, or other possible) interventions are then sifted under three criteria of suitability, feasibility and acceptability to establish which schemes are most likely to be delivered.

2.18 Three interventions failed the sifting process, one of which involved diverting Moorgate services to Kings Cross. This intervention scored particularly poorly on feasibility and business case and would not deliver material benefits, especially as interchanging at Finsbury Park provides a range of options which will improve significantly with the full opening of Thameslink in 2018 and Crossrail 1 via Moorgate in 2019.

2.19 As discussed earlier in this report, the Strategy is devised around specific route corridors. These are in turn divided into broad service groups. This approach is illustrated by the inclusion of the following diagram, which identifies these key elements:

2.20 For each area service group, a rationale has been developed covering:

• Relevant development objectives;

• Specific key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement;

• Conditional outputs identified for the service group; and

• Interventions recommended to address the conditional outputs.

2.21 The draft Strategy provides detail around the first three of these issues (p35 – 36) which, for the West Anglia Main Line, then leads onto the recommended interventions (Figure 4.2):

2.22 Further detail around each of the four interventions is supplied (p36 – p39).

2.23 In respect of the committed and planned interventions, these have already been identified by Network Rail in its future planning.

2.24 In respect of the four-tracking element proposed, this Council has long been supportive of such proposals and has made representation to that effect within its overall representation in respect of the recent Anglia Route Study consultation:

the provision of four-tracking between Coppermill and Broxbourne junctions, and inter-related additional platform provision at Liverpool Street and Stratford stations, should be viewed as a priority scheme which should not be delayed until Crossrail 2 is provided, but rather be delivered at the earliest opportunity in CP6 in order that:

 timetabling of three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations can be achieved;  additional services to Stansted Airport can be achieved without jeopardising other services;  capacity constraint issues be relieved;  economic growth be supported; and modal shift be encouraged.

2.25 The full Non-Key report on the Anglia Route Consultation (13/11) is available to view via the link at the foot of this report.

2.26 The fourth element recommended in this part of the draft Strategy concerns the provision of Crossrail 2, under the category of „Other – under discussion‟. This issue is discussed further below, under the consideration of interventions proposed for the Hertford East Branch Line relating to Crossrail 2 (paragraph 2.30 onwards).

2.27 Following the interventions proposed specifically for the West Anglia Main Line, Hertford East Branch Interventions are also recommended in a discrete section (p39 – p41). The proposed interventions include:

2.28 The first two elements of the proposals repeat those for the Main Line in general, while the latter two are specific to the branch line and are inter-related with the Crossrail 2 proposals.

2.29 In respect of the Ware Station proposals, it should be pointed out that, within the more detailed description of the schemes (page 40), the double track proposal regarding the „reinstatement of a second platform at Ware‟, is predicated on a factual inaccuracy, as the station has only ever had one platform. Land constraints were clearly apparent when the station was built, which apparently concerned issues around land ownership at the time1. Recent development close to the station‟s southern boundary would further complicate the likelihood of such a proposal‟s delivery.

2.30 In respect of proposals for supporting Crossrail 2 to run to Hertford East, on page 41 of the draft Strategy it is stated that:

To support the strategic case for Crossrail 2 and to help deliver Hertfordshire‟s growth requirements more sustainably, the implementation of development around key stations on the branch including Hertford East will be considered (Italics added for emphasis).

2.31 Whilst broadly supportive of the overall principle of the delivery of Crossrail 2, East Herts Council has always had specific concerns over the choice of Hertford East as the ultimate destination for this route. These concerns were raised by the Council within the response to the Crossrail 2 consultation carried out by TfL in its consultation, which concluded in 2015:

East Herts Council offers limited support for the Crossrail 2 Regional Option. While the additional benefits that the scheme could bring to the West Anglia Mainline (with associated economic growth potential and improved connectivity between Hertfordshire, London and the wider area), are recognised East Herts Council considers that, due to its limited infrastructure and the environmental, economic and social impacts that such proposals could have on towns and villages in East Herts, the scheme should not extend as far as Hertford East but should terminate at either Cheshunt or Broxbourne.

Irrespective of which, if any, Crossrail 2 Option may subsequently be pursued, it should be ensured that the current frequency of service provision on the branch line to Hertford East should at the very least be maintained and preferably be increased.

1 „150 Years of the Hertford and Ware Railway‟, David Dent, Rockingham Press, 1982.

2.32 The reasoning behind the reluctance to welcome Crossrail 2 as a terminus is described more fully at paragraphs 2.40 – 2.43 of the full Non-Key report (15/02), which is available to view via the link at the foot of this report, but largely centres around the likelihood of increased demand for additional development stemming from London (in addition to locally arising need), balanced against the protection of the character of the district‟s towns and villages. Furthermore, this acknowledged that there are existing infrastructure deficiencies, not just in terms of the physical provision of the proposed Crossrail 2 rail route, but also with regard to the functioning of the strategic road network e.g. A414 through Hertford and other areas, such as Ware High Street etc. The Non- Key report (15/02) was shared with officers at HCC at the time of that consultation.

2.33 However, despite these issues having clearly been articulated in the past through informal discussions, the Non-Key Report and through the development of the Rail Strategy via workshops, the draft Rail Strategy is currently recommending, not only that Crossrail 2 should extend as far as Hertford East, but also a linked proposal which is of much greater concern. This proposal (as detailed above) is that „development around key stations on the branch including Hertford East will be considered‟ to „help deliver Hertfordshire‟s growth requirements more sustainably‟.

2.34 Aside from the fact that deciding on which locations should be preferred for development is a district planning policy function and does not come under the auspices of the County Council, the process for determining ultimate locations in the emerging East Herts District Plan has been through a rigorous sifting process, which has identified many impediments to development in locations beyond those identified. Therefore, the draft District Plan‟s potential future areas for development (proposed allocations) are already identified to be provided in the most sustainable locations and, importantly, are likely to have already been completed prior to the introduction of Crossrail 2, should it extend as far as Hertford East.

2.35 Furthermore, the Council‟s long-standing approach of utilising brownfield sites to provide sustainable development means that there would be very little opportunity apparent for further development to be located centrally to the stations on the Hertford East Branch Line. Therefore, further development in these settlements would involve peripheral development located away

from their central cores, and involving Green Belt release.

2.36 It should also be borne in mind that the County Council‟s Highways section is already raising major concerns about the ability of settlements along this route to deliver even the currently proposed levels of planned development in the emerging District Plan due to significant constraints on the A414, without the prospect of further development being factored in.

2.37 If the consultants had approached the Council prior to making its recommendations then explanation of the various constraints in these areas may have resulted in a different approach being taken in the draft Rail Strategy; however, this opportunity was missed. It is therefore considered that, while broadly supportive of the Crossrail 2 principle and seeking enhancement of service frequency on the Hertford East Branch Line this Council should object to the inclusion of wording aimed at increased development in those East Herts settlements with branch stations (St Margarets/Stanstead Abbotts; Ware; and Hertford).

2.38 For the East Coast Main Line, the proposed interventions are split around Long Distance; Great Northern Suburban (including Hitchin to Cambridge); and the Hertford Loop. Whilst certain interventions regarding the first two elements will have positive effects for those residents who travel to Stevenage (e.g. ease of connection to Thameslink once opened), the key matters relevant to East Herts surround proposals for the Hertford Loop, which has been the cause of long-standing service provision concerns.

2.39 The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the East Coast Main Line Hertford Loop are:

 Capacity constraints because of the two track railway on this route, and further disruptions caused by freight, all of which uses the Hertford Loop as an alternative to the ECML, and main line passenger train diversions when the ECML is blocked between Stevenage and Bounds Green;

 Slower journey times to London, for example 43 minutes from Hertford North, than from comparable stations such as Welwyn Garden City and St Albans (21 and 17 minutes respectively);

 Significant population growth of +18% in East Herts and

+15% in Broxbourne by 2031; and

 As a result of this growth there is forecast overcrowding of up to 104% into London by 2031.

2.40 To address these concerns, the following interventions are recommended for the Hertford Loop:

2.41 All of these conditional outputs (discussed in greater detail on pages 49 to 51) are considered to be advantageous to the improvement of service provision on this line and will both increase the number of trains to/from London and reduce travel time from Hertford North.

2.42 Having considered each route corridor in detail, including sections on Freight and the improvement of Orbital (East – West) Movement Within the County (the priorities of which, while considered to be positive, would have a direct impact on East Herts), the draft Rail Strategy then transfers the top Short, Medium and Long Term Priorities which have been identified to a consolidated table (page 83) for the whole of Hertfordshire. These are stated to include all of the top priorities that have been flagged with red text under the sections dealing with individual lines. These are encompass:

SHORT TERM:

Deliver additional capacity and enhanced access to Watford town centre through the Croxley Rail Link project, and developing a Watford Interchange Hub.

Improve connections to key destinations such as Sheffield and Nottingham following completion of electrification of the Midland Main Line, lobby for the introduction of long distance stops at St Albans.

Increase capacity and service frequency on the West Coast Main Line, and enhance journey opportunities to London, HS2 and Heathrow through a Crossrail 1 WCML link.

MEDIUM TERM:

Develop ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ concept through service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) to take advantage of the new Stevenage turnback platform and new stock, and develop a Stevenage Interchange Hub with improved long distance connectivity.

LONG TERM:

Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through support for East-West Rail Central Section southern option via Luton and Stevenage, connecting Stevenage hub to key employment centres and enhancing orbital connections.

Secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements on the West Anglia Main Line through support for four-tracking and the Crossrail 2 project in Hertfordshire.

2.43 These top priorities will be further developed by HCC to feed into the main rail industry processes, such as Network Rail‟s Route Study consultations, DfT‟s HLOS process, in addition to franchise consultations and renewals. Other strategic priorities will be progressed in conjunction with relevant stakeholders.

2.44 However, although the above top priorities cover most of those areas flagged in red text throughout the individual line priorities specified, it is noted that there seems to be a glaring omission in this list around the provision of a Top priority Short term East Coast Mainline Strategic Priority, namely:

TOP PRIORITY - Short term: secure better long distance connections from Stevenage to the north from the new Intercity Trains franchise and progress comprehensive development of Stevenage Transport Hub to support Stevenage‟s increasing

importance as a growing population and employment centre, and its enhanced role as an interchange hub.

2.45 It is acknowledged that this text does appear in the East Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities list (page 77); Figure 5.2; and the Action Plan Table (page 86). However, as it is identified that, as well acting as a key interchange hub, this priority of the Strategy is seen as an essential element in the enhancement of services on the Hertford Loop, it is vital that, to ensure optimum chance of delivery, this priority should also be included in the final Rail Strategy consolidated list of Top Priorities (page 83).

2.46 Section 5.3 goes on to provide an Action Plan, which identifies specific actions necessary to drive forward the Strategic Priorities; provides the likely timescale for delivery; and details the main stakeholders responsible for provision. This is followed by a section on „Implementing the Strategy‟ (5.4), which discusses in greater detail the process of involvement of key bodies in the delivery process.

2.47 Regular engagement with, inter alia, this Council is promised “to report on progress, build relationships around the rail strategy, and harness local skills and knowledge to support implementation”.

2.48 The current 2011 Rail Strategy, which the draft Strategy is intended to replace, is a daughter document to Hertfordshire‟s Local Transport Plan (LTP3). It should be noted that the County Council is currently developing a long-term Transport Vision as part of its development work for its new Local Transport Plan to replace LTP3. As the Rail Strategy is being prepared in advance of the conclusion of that work it is probable that, once the outcomes of the Vision work are complete, the Rail Strategy will require revisiting to ensure that it aligns with the long term vision and includes any rail related priorities.

3.0 Implications/Consultations

3.1 Information on any corporate issues and consultation associated with this report can be found within Essential Reference Paper ‘A’.

Background Papers

 Hertfordshire Rail Strategy 2015 Consultation Document (and supporting documents), HCC, June 2015: http://hertscc- consult.limehouse.co.uk/portal/transport/railconsultation?tab=files

 Hertfordshire Rail Strategy, HCC, April 2011 http://www.hertsdirect.org/services/transtreets/ltplive/supporting/rail/

 Network Rail: Anglia Route Study, Draft for Consultation – November 2014 (NKD 15/02) http://democracy.eastherts.gov.uk/mgDelegatedDecisions.aspx?XX R=0&&DR=01%2f12%2f14- 01%2f03%2f2015&ACT=Find&RP=0&K=0&V=0&DM=0&HD=0&DS =0&Next=true&T=852541&NOW=30062015172139&META=mgdele gateddecisions&

 Consultation on Crossrail 2 Proposals, TfL, May 2013 (NKD 13/11) http://democracy.eastherts.gov.uk/ieDecisionDetails.aspx?ID=569 .

Contact Member: Councillor Gary Jones – Executive Member for Economic Development [email protected]

Contact Officer: Kevin Steptoe – Head of Planning and Building Control Contact Tel No: 01992 531407 [email protected]

Report Author: Kay Mead – Principal Planning Policy Officer [email protected]