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Thermal and Physical Investigations Into Lake Deepening Processes on Spillway Lake, Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal

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Thermal and Physical Investigations Into Lake Deepening Processes on Spillway Lake, Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal water Article Thermal and Physical Investigations into Lake Deepening Processes on Spillway Lake, Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal Ulyana Nadia Horodyskyj Science in the Wild, 40 S 35th St. Boulder, CO 80305, USA; [email protected] Academic Editors: Daene C. McKinney and Alton C. Byers Received: 15 March 2017; Accepted: 15 May 2017; Published: 22 May 2017 Abstract: This paper investigates physical processes in the four sub-basins of Ngozumpa glacier’s terminal Spillway Lake for the period 2012–2014 in order to characterize lake deepening and mass transfer processes. Quantifying the growth and deepening of this terminal lake is important given its close vicinity to Sherpa villages down-valley. To this end, the following are examined: annual, daily and hourly temperature variations in the water column, vertical turbidity variations and water level changes and map lake floor sediment properties and lake floor structure using open water side-scan sonar transects. Roughness and hardness maps from sonar returns reveal lake floor substrates ranging from mud, to rocky debris and, in places, bare ice. Heat conduction equations using annual lake bottom temperatures and sediment properties are used to calculate bottom ice melt rates (lake floor deepening) for 0.01 to 1-m debris thicknesses. In areas of rapid deepening, where low mean bottom temperatures prevail, thin debris cover or bare ice is present. This finding is consistent with previously reported localized regions of lake deepening and is useful in predicting future deepening. Keywords: glacier; lake; flood; melting; Nepal; Himalaya; Sherpas 1. Introduction Since the 1950s, many debris-covered glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya have developed large terminal moraine-dammed supraglacial lakes [1], which grow through expansion and deepening on the surface of a glacier [2–4]. As temperatures continue to rise [5] and lakes continue to grow in area and volume, they pose a flooding risk to the Sherpa villages down-valley [6,7]. Two conditions suggested to promote the formation of supraglacial lakes are sloped surfaces <2◦ [8] and surface velocities <10 m/yr [9]. Hence, they occur in terminal “dead ice” zones. The Tsho Rolpa on northwest-flowing Trakarding glacier (Rowaling valley) and Tsho Imja on the west-flowing Imja-Lhotse Shar glacier (Khumbu valley) are two examples of moraine-dammed supraglacial lakes that have grown considerably in area and volume from 1950 to the present-day [10–14]. While there appears to be no immediate danger of lake drainage at Imja, continued monitoring is crucial to ensure the terminal ice dam, currently 500 m across, does not narrow and cause a catastrophic flood [15]. Field efforts in 2016 by the Nepalese Army have already lowered the level of the lake by 3 m in order to preemptively mitigate some of the hazard. The Tsho Rolpa differs in that its terminal ice dam already is much narrower and steeper [7]. In the event of ice collapse at the calving front, seiche waves could overtop the moraine and promote dam failure. In the late 1990s, a dam and spillway were constructed to lower the lake level and reduce the risk of a catastrophic drainage downstream [16]. Both lakes have large fetches of multiple kilometers and active calving fronts. Other than partially-ice-cored moraines at their termini, rocky (possibly ice-cored) lateral moraines bound them. Water 2017, 9, 362; doi:10.3390/w9050362 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2017, 9, 362 2 of 21 The Spillway is a base-level supraglacial lake on the south/southeast-flowing Ngozumpa glacier Water 2017, 9, 362 2 of 23 in the Gokyo valley, between the Rowaling and Khumbu valleys, whose growth stages have been documentedThe Spillway since the is earlya base‐ 2000slevel supraglacial [4,17,18]. Spillwaylake on the has south/southeast the capacity‐flowing to grow Ngozumpa into a much glacier larger moraine-dammedin the Gokyo valley, lake (5–6between km inthe length) Rowaling similar and Khumbu to those valleys, on the whose Trakarding growth and stages Imja-Lhotse have been Shar glaciersdocumented (Figure1), since though the itearly could 2000s become [4,17,18]. much Spillway larger has in area the andcapacity volume to grow than into Tsho a much Rolpa larger and Tsho Imjamoraine given the‐dammed stagnation lake (5–6 of the km lower in length) 6.5 km similar of Ngozumpa to those on glacierthe Trakarding [4,9,18]. and Presently, Imja‐Lhotse the Shar Spillway glaciers (Figure 1), though it could become much larger in area and volume than Tsho Rolpa and consists of multiple sub-basins that are gradually merging into a larger lake. Over the past three Tsho Imja given the stagnation of the lower 6.5 km of Ngozumpa glacier [4,9,18]. Presently, the decades, Spillway has undergone cycles of rapid growth “spurts” alternating with periods of slower Spillway consists of multiple sub‐basins that are gradually merging into a larger lake. Over the past expansionthree decades, [16]. Deepening Spillway rateshas undergone vary locally cycles in theof rapid sub-basins growth from“spurts” less alternating than a meter with per periods year of to tens of metersslower per expansion year [4, 18[16].]. QuantifyingDeepening rates lake vary expansion locally in and the sub deepening‐basins from remains less than an importanta meter per objective,year givento the tens millions of meters of cubicper year meters [4,18]. of Quantifying water that canlake potentiallyexpansion and outburst deepening downstream, remains an affecting important Sherpa villages.objective, Towards given this the end, millions trainings of cubic of Sherpasmeters of via water a “Sherpa-Scientist that can potentially Initiative” outburst (SSI) downstream, were carried out duringaffecting the Sherpa course villages. of this Towards field research, this end, to ensuretrainings local of Sherpas knowledge via a of“Sherpa the hazards,‐Scientist as Initiative” well as ways to counteract(SSI) were and carried mitigate out during hazards the shouldcourse of they this arise field inresearch, the future. to ensure As oflocal June knowledge 2016, one of weatherthe stationhazards, remains as well at the as terminusways to counteract of the Ngozumpa and mitigate glacier, hazards collecting should they meteorological arise in the future. data, As and of one June 2016, one weather station remains at the terminus of the Ngozumpa glacier, collecting pressure transducer remains in the Spillway Lake, collecting water level data. The data are periodically meteorological data, and one pressure transducer remains in the Spillway Lake, collecting water level downloaded by SSI-trained locals. Maintaining a research presence on the glacier is of importance as data. The data are periodically downloaded by SSI‐trained locals. Maintaining a research presence the Spillwayon the glacier Lake is continues of importance to expand as the Spillway and deepen. Lake continues to expand and deepen. Figure 1. Overview map of the Khumbu region (April 2013 Landsat) showing Tsho Rolpa Lake Figure 1. Overview map of the Khumbu region (April 2013 Landsat) showing Tsho Rolpa Lake (NW‐flowing Trakarding glacier) in the Rowaling Valley; Spillway Lake (SE‐flowing Ngozumpa (NW-flowing Trakarding glacier) in the Rowaling Valley; Spillway Lake (SE-flowing Ngozumpa glacier) glacier) in the Gokyo Valley; and Imja Lake (W‐flowing Imja glacier) in the Khumbu Valley. in the Gokyo Valley; and Imja Lake (W-flowing Imja glacier) in the Khumbu Valley. While research has quantified rates of lake expansion [4], it is important also to understand Whileprocesses research controlling has quantifiedthe deepening rates rates of lakeof Spillway expansion Lake. [4 ],This it ispaper important investigates also tolake understand floor processesdeepening controlling in four the sub deepening‐basins of Spillway rates of SpillwayLake using Lake. measured This paperseasonal investigates bottom water lake temperatures floor deepening in fourand sub-basins numerical of modeling Spillway of Lake variable using thicknesses measured of seasonal debris cover bottom water temperatures and numerical modeling(0.01 ofto variable1 meter) to thicknesses predict lake of bottom debris coverice melt (0.01 rates. to 1The m) thickness to predict of lake debris bottom remains ice difficult melt rates. to The thicknessvalidate of debrisin the field, remains due to difficult its spatial to validateheterogeneity in the as field, seen at due the to surface its spatial of Ngozumpa heterogeneity glacier as [19]. seen at the surfaceHowever, of Ngozumpanumerically‐ glaciermodeled [19 melt]. However, rates using numerically-modeled temperature field data melt and rates calculated using temperaturethermal field dataconductivities and calculated provide thermal a framework conductivities with which provide to evaluate a framework previous depth with changes which in to Spillway evaluate Lake. previous Vertical water temperature and turbidity (suspended sediment concentration) measurements, depth changes in Spillway Lake. lake bottom temperatures, lake floor sediment properties and open water side‐scan sonar transects Verticalare presented water to temperature quantify rates and of ice turbidity melt beneath (suspended debris (sediment) sediment layers concentration) on lake floors measurements, through lake bottomheat conduction, temperatures, as well lake as to floor investigate sediment lake properties floor structure. and open The results water are side-scan used to sonar identify transects areas are presentedthat may to quantifypose the risk rates of rapid of ice deepening melt beneath and potential debris (sediment) loss of stored layers glacial on water lake in floors the future. through heat conduction, as well as to investigate lake floor structure. The results are used to identify areas that maypose the risk of rapid deepening and potential loss of stored glacial water in the future. Water 2017, 9, 362 3 of 21 2. Site Description Ngozumpa is oneWater of 2017 Nepal’s, 9, 362 largest and longest glaciers. It flows 18 km south-southeast3 of 23 from the flanks of Cho Oyu (8188-m)2. Site Description and Gyachang Kang (7922-m) [17]. Near its terminus, at 4800-m, a large Ngozumpa is one of Nepal’s largest and longest glaciers.
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