Mayoral Elections in Indiana 2003–2015 Mayoral Elections in Indiana
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Center for Local Elections in American Politics MayoralMayoral ElectionsElections inin IndianaIndiana 2003–20152003–2015 May 2016 Melissa Marschall John Lappie sustainable so that it can continue to provide data, research and information to scholars, practitioners and policymakers long into the future. By creating a database that updates automatically — and About the Center for Local Elections in constantly — we are able to ensure we have the most current American Politics information available to help researchers, journalists and others effectively study government. While the presidential campaign The Center for Local Elections in American Politics (LEAP) is continues to generate headlines, the heart of democracy is at developing pathbreaking solutions to the problem of collecting, the local level. We believe LEAP’s database will allow us to digitizing and disseminating data on local elections. More better understand the process and outcomes of these elections. information is available at http://www.leap-elections.org/. The United States is viewed as an archetype of democracy, yet fundamental questions about the nature of our government and its electoral processes and outcomes are often difficult to answer because of a simple problem: a lack of data. Because elections are decentralized in this country, basic Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research is a information about local contests is difficult to access. To date, “think and do” tank that advances understanding of the there has been no comprehensive source of data on U.S. local challenges facing Houston and other urban centers through elections. The situation has vexed political scientists, journalists research, policy analysis and public outreach. By collaborating and other researchers for decades. As a result, much of what with civic and political leaders, the Kinder Institute aims to help we think we know about local government, particularly trends Houston and other cities. For more, visit www.kinder.rice.edu. over time, is based on anecdotes and generalizations — not empirical evidence. We’re helping to change that. With a grant from the National Science Foundation in 2010, principal investigators Melissa Marschall and Paru Shah launched the Local Elections in America Project (LEAP). Since then, LEAP has developed The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation advances the most comprehensive database of local election results in journalism in the digital age and invests in the vitality existence. In 2015, the Knight Foundation provided funding of communities where the Knight brothers owned to turn LEAP into the Center for Local Elections in American newspapers. The Knight Foundation focuses on projects Politics within Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. that promote informed and engaged communities and LEAP developed a suite of software application tools lead to transformational change. The Knight Foundation to systematically collect, digitize and disseminate data on Community Initiative focuses on 26 communities. elections across the U.S. LEAP’s innovation was in creating a Resident program directors oversee grantmaking in eight digital archive of past election results, as well as automating communities: Akron, Ohio; Charlotte, N.C.; Detroit; Macon, data collection for current and future elections. Ga.; Miami; Philadelphia; San Jose, Calif.; and St. Paul, Minn. At present, the database contains results from 22 states In the remaining 18 communities, the Knight Foundation that, in some cases, date as far back as the 1980s. The database partners with other community foundations. The foundation contains the names of local candidates, their party affiliations, has invested more than $841 million in community initiatives the number of votes they received, how those votes were cast since its creation in 1950. The Knight Foundation wants (e.g., in person, by absentee ballot or by early voting) and its national network of learning to inspire the actions of whether they ran at-large or by district (and the district name residents in each of its communities and help build a or number). Other fields include government level (county, better democracy and a successful future. For more, visit municipal, school district or special district), office type www.knightfoundation.org. (executive, legislative, judicial/law enforcement, other) and election type (primary, general, runoff, special or initiative/ referendum). In addition, each candidate record is geocoded, Future Reports making connectivity to other data seamless. We have records of hundreds of thousands of candidates who’ve run for office The Indiana study is the third of several reports on municipal in the U.S. elections to be released in 2016 by the Kinder Institute for The database is dynamic and continues to be updated Urban Research’s Center for Local Elections in American as new elections come online, which is a truly pathbreaking Politics. A report on California and Kentucky has already feature. And, while we continue to add new election results, been published. Forthcoming reports will examine trends in we also are expanding data collection to other states and municipal contests in Virginia, Louisiana, Minnesota, South developing new technology that will not only make it possible Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona and Washington. to expedite the collection of data that’s ordinarily difficult to access, but will allow us to enhance our data by adding new Marschall, Melissa and John Lappie. 2016. “Mayoral Elections fields that measure other candidate, election and campaign in Indiana, 2003–2015.” Center for Local Elections in American features. Politics. Kinder Institute for Urban Research, Rice University, Finally, we are working with the Kinder Institute and a Houston, Texas. large network of stakeholders to make the database and LEAP Mayoral Elections in Indiana, 2003–2015 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 1 2. List of Tables and Figures 2 3. Overview of Mayoral Elections in Indiana 3 4. Mayor and Mayoral Elections in Indiana 3 5. Mayoral Elections 4 Demographics City Size Trends Over Time 6. References 10 7. Appendix 11 Mayoral Elections in Indiana, 2003–2015 1. Executive Summary Political observers’ assumptions about local election trends are often based on anecdotes, incomplete observation or simply conventional wisdom. However, the Kinder Institute for Urban Research and its Center for Local Elections in American Politics (LEAP) offer a first-of-its-kind way to analyze elections. Several important trends emerge in Indiana. The analysis of election data reveals that more than 20 percent of all mayoral elections in Indiana cities go uncontested. The trend is especially pronounced in the state’s smallest cities. The report also shows that during the study period, there has been a steady decline in turnout in both primary and general elections. Background The study focuses on elections of Indiana mayors in the state’s 159 cities. The dataset includes the results of mayoral elections in all Indiana cities for the 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015 elections. It includes 474 general elections and 706 primary elections. Methodology LEAP software automates the collection of election results, resulting in a database containing records on municipal elections in 22 states dating as far back as the 1980s. The Indiana dataset is based off of information uploaded to the Indiana Secretary of State website. It includes information on general elections in Indiana from Nov. 4, 2003 to Nov. 3, 2015, and primary elections in Indiana from May 1, 2003 to May 5, 2015. Findings • More than 20 percent of all mayoral elections go uncontested. This issue is especially acute in the state’s smallest cities. In cities with populations below 5,000, nearly 29 percent of mayoral elections go uncontested, compared to just 13 percent in the state’s largest cities. • The Republicans have made considerable gains in Mayoral elections, going from winning only 42 percent of mayoralties in 2003 to over half by 2011 and 2015. Republican candidates tend to do best in midsized cities, and worst in the largest and smallest cities. • There is a gradual, steady decline in turnout in mayoral elections during the 2003–2015 study period. In that time, turnout in November general elections dropped from an average of 29 percent in 2003 to 22 percent. Primary turnout declined by 20 percent in 2003 to 14 percent in 2015. • Average voter turnout is highest in Indiana’s smaller cities and declines as city size increases. Cities with 5,000 to 10,000 residents had turnout of 31 percent. In cities with populations above 50,000, average turnout was around 21 percent. • In Indiana, the relationship between median household income and turnout runs contrary to expectations. Typically, election turnout increases within a community that has a high average median income. In Indiana, regardless of household income, turnout is roughly 26 percent for each category, with little variation. • Indiana cities with the highest concentrations of college-educated adults have, on average, the lowest turnout (about 24 percent). On the other hand, voter turnout in cities with lower concentrations of residents with at least a bachelor’s degree is highest (28 percent). This is also contrary to typical election patterns. Mayoral Elections in Indiana, 2003–2015 1. 2. List of Tables and Figures Figure 5.1: Turnout in Mayoral Elections by Educational Attainment Figure 5.2: Turnout in Mayoral Elections by Median Household Income (2013 dollars) Figure 5.3: Turnout in Mayoral Elections by City Size Figure 5.4: Percentage of Unopposed Mayoral Elections by City Size Figure 5.5: Average Number of Mayoral Candidates by City Size Figure 5.6: Average Margin of Victory in Mayoral Elections by City Size Figure 5.7: Incumbents and Mayoral Elections by City Size Figure 5.8: Party of Winning Candidates by City Size Figure 5.9: Turnout in Mayoral General and Primary Elections, 2003–2015 Figure 5.10: Turnout in Mayoral General Elections by Year and City Size Figure 5.11: Percent Unopposed Mayoral Elections by Year and Election Type Figure 5.12: Percent Unopposed Primary Elections by Year and Party, 2003–2015 Figure 5.13: Party of Winning Mayoral Candidates, 2003–2015 2.