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4Q2016 Retail Market Report.Indd Oahu | Hawaii Research & Forecast Report RETAIL MARKET Year-End 2016 Delivery of Ka Makana Alii Regional Mall Contributes to Market Growth Mike Hamasu Director of Research | Hawaii Oahu’s retail marketplace received a 502,178 square foot boost “We anticipate Oahu’s retail in net absorption in 2016 as Ala Moana Center, International market to continue to strengthen Market Place and Ka Makana Alii developments added nearly 1.4 million square feet of additional inventory. However, more than as the introduction of new 600,000 square feet of this new space is either vacant or under retailers add to the vibrancy of construction, resulting in a vacancy rate spike. our market.” Over the past two years, the island-wide vacancy rate doubled Nathan A. Fong (B), Senior Vice President from 4.09% at year-end 2014 to 8.44% currently. The last time vacancy rates exceeded 8% was in 2003 when JCPenney shut Market Indicators Year End down and left signifi cant vacancies at Ala Moana Center and Relative to prior quarter 2016 Pearlridge Center. VACANCY Colliers anticipates that vacancy rates will steadily decline NET ABSORPTION in 2017 when a projected 400,000 square feet of the new CONSTRUCTION inventory becomes occupied. RENTAL RATE Oahu Retail Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate Summary Statistics Year End 2016 Retail Market 8.44% 600,000 9.00% YTD Net Absorption 502,178 SF 502,178 8.00% Vacancy Rate 8.44% 500,000 7.00% Average Asking Rent Range $3.52 to $4.33 psf/mo 400,000 6.00% Average Asking Rent NNN $3.92 psf/mo 5.00% Average Operating Exp. $1.30 psf/mo 300,000 4.00% 200,000 3.00% 100,000 2.00% 1.00% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.00% (100,000) -1.00% Net Absorption (SF) Vacancy ©2016 Colliers International Research and Consulting. All rights reserved. Oahu Retail Employment (October) 104,000 Healthy Economy Continues 102,300 102,000 99,600 Hawaii’s economic outlook remains optimistic with 100,000 98,000 continued job growth and rising air passenger arrival 96,000 94,000 counts. Oahu’s unemployment rate fell to a nine 89,700 92,000 year low for the month of October of 2.9%. All of 90,000 the major employment categories posted job growth 88,000 over the past year. The retail sector generated 86,000 84,000 the highest number of new jobs by adding 2,700 82,000 positions over the past twelve months. Currently, the 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 retail industry employs 102,300 and even surpassed Source: DBEDT government (100,700 positions) as the largest Total Air Passenger Arrivals (October YTD) employment sector for the island. 5,000,000 4,538,470 4,427,960 The October year-to-date air passenger arrivals 4,500,000 count surpassed 4.5 million for the fi rst time and the Hawaii Tourism Authority is forecasting a 2.3% 4,000,000 increase over the year-end 2015 record level. Visitor 3,500,000 expenditures are also anticipated to hit another record by surpassing 2015 spending by a healthy 3,000,000 3.9%. Earlier in the year, Canadian, Japanese, 2,500,000 Korean and Chinese currencies had weakened 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 against the U.S. dollar as tourism expenditures Source: DBEDT incurred a mid-year lull in activity. Since September, Oahu SFH Median Home Price vs. Unit Sales (October) foreign currencies have rebounded and resort retail $800,000 4,000 sales likely garnered a boost in activity. 3,043 $700,000 3,500 Oahu’s median single family home price rose for $600,000 3,000 the fi fth consecutive year to a record $742,000 in $500,000 2,500 October 2016. Additionally, sales transaction counts $400,000 2,000 for single family homes rose to its highest level in nine years. $300,000 1,500 $200,000 1,000 Rising home prices usually translate to a perceived $100,000 500 $742,000 higher net worth by residents and an increase in $0 0 retail spending. However, retail sales on Oahu 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 slowed for the second consecutive year from a Median Price (October) Unit Sales Source: DBEDT, HBR record $27.28 billion established for fi scal year 2013-2014 to $25.77 billion in fi scal year 2015-2016, Oahu Retail Tax Base (Fiscal Year July - June) for a 5.54% loss. Colliers speculates that the loss $Billions of retail sales could be due to the increasing use of $30.00 e-commerce and internet buying websites, i.e. the $25.00 impact of Amazon.com. $20.00 $27.28 $26.23 $25.77 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Dept. of Taxation 2 Oahu Retail Research & Forecast Report | Year-End 2016 | Colliers International Growth in E-Commerce New or Expanding Tenants The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday sales will increase by 1849 Eating House Limon Rotisserie roughly 3.6% for 2016. The e-commerce Aldo Shoes Outlet Lorna Jane component of total U.S. retail sales is Anytime Fitness Lucky Strike anticipated to post a 17% growth rate for Applebee’s Magnolia Ice Cream the year to $393 billion. By 2017, U.S. AutoZone Mahina & Sun’s e-commerce sales are projected to reach Bakery & Table Moku Kitchen $440 billion or more than 10% of the Baku Moncler $4 trillion of total retail sales for the U.S. This accelerated e-commerce sales Banzai Bowls Maui Brewing growth rate benefi tted from the convergence of the millennial generation’s Bedmart Mattress Company emergence as a prime consumer demographic and the proliferation of mobile (i.e. cell phones and tablets) and internet technology. Bevy Market Maui Mikes Fire Bikini Bird Roasted Chicken A recent study conducted by UPS and ComScore found that Millennials make BLT Market Minamoto Kitchoan 54% of their purchases on-line (excluding groceries). This alone is driving Boiling Crab Nashville Waikiki the need for retailers to present multiple sales channels that integrate web, Brick Fire Tavern Nitrogenie mobile technology, bricks and mortar, distribution, payment and returns into BYO Bowls Orangetheory Fitness a seamless off ering. GAFO (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, Celine Papa Murphy’s furniture and other sales) retailers have already been greatly impacted by Chanel Shoes Pieology Pizzeria e-commerce. Women’s Wear Daily reported that 2015 online sales at Walmart ‘Olino by Consolidated Piggy Smalls ($13.48 billion), Macy’s ($4.83 billion), Costco ($3.62 billion), Nordstrom ($2.7 billion) and Target ($2.52 billion) are dwarfed by the amount of online sales Theaters Pint and Cork being generated by Amazon ($79.27 billion). If these retailers do not adapt, Cynthia Rowley Gastropub they might easily be supplanted by the more aggressive internet retailer. It is Dean & Deluca Pressed Juicery projected that by 2017, Amazon will likely surpass Macy’s in total apparel sales. Dickeys Barbeque Pitt Rain on Fort Street Donut King Refi nery Rising Importance of Restaurants Dolce & Gabbana Rice Paper Dunkin’ Donuts Saks Fifth Avenue/ Colliers has tracked news stories for 2016 Eden in Love Saks Off 5th that related to new or expanding retailers Fabletics Scratch Kitchen & on Oahu. Of the 83 press releases compiled Five Guys Burgers Bake Shop (see adjacent table of New or Expanding and Fries Shinola Tenants), 67% were for restaurants or food Flour & Barley Sonic purveyors. This is quite a profound change from the 43 retail news articles announcing Gen Korean BBQ Stripsteak and 20 restaurants opening in 2010. The Hachibei Sura Hawaii increasing role that food and restaurants Hawaii Fudge Sushi Maru Tesla has had on retail tenancy is a trend that has been highlighted in the Colliers Company and corresponds to the National Restaurant Association’s Tory Burch Outlet National Spotlight Report Herringbone forecast that restaurants in 2017 will post a seventh consecutive year of Tory Sport Jersey Mikes increased sales, surpassing the $783 billion mark for 2016. Johnny Rockets TR Fire Grill Jollibee The Tchin Tchin! Bar As e-commerce continues to grab a growing and larger share of retail sales, Jo Malone UFC Gym consumers can often fi nd better deals on-line than at a shopping center. In an eff ort to adjust to this consumer paradigm, retail centers are evolving by Juic’d Life Valentino incorporating a wide array of new service off erings and activities including Kiehl’s Vintage Cave Café healthcare, live entertainment, bowling, dance studios, and a plethora of new Kona Grill Yauatcha restaurants. The objective is to provide the perspective that the retail center is more than just shopping, but an integral part of where people can enjoy an “active social experience”. 3 Oahu Retail Research & Forecast Report | Year-End 2016 | Colliers International Rental Rates Increase Oahu Retail Average Asking Base Rent The island-wide average retail asking base rent rose by 2.1% (psf/mo) to $3.92 per square foot per month (“psf/mo”) from $3.84 $4.00 psf/mo a year ago. This is the fourth consecutive year of rental rate increases which have grown by a robust 21% $3.50 $3.92 $3.84 since 2012. $3.64 Average retail asking base rents have increased in every $3.00 $3.35 trade area on Oahu. Over the past fi ve years, retail centers $3.24 on the North Shore and Waikiki posted the greatest increase $2.50 in base rents of 64.22%, and 45.79%, respectively.
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