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World Bank Document RETURN TO I EPORTS DESKI RESTRICTED WITHM Report No. EA- 144a ONE WEE Public Disclosure Authorized This reoort was orepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated oraanizations- They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be oublished nor may it be quoted as renresentina their viewsI INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OFTP TAMKAATr.A Public Disclosure Authorized October 9, 1963 Public Disclosure Authorized Department of Operations Europe CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 Jamaican Pound = 1 Pound Sterling E = U. S. $2. 80 L 1 Million = U. S. $2. 80 Million U. s. $1 = 6 0.5357 T.R. $1 Millon = - 357, 000 Ri)ljr Ur'LUJf~L. Basic Data Summary and Conclusions I. INTRODUCTION . * III POLITICAL SITUATION . .......... 2 III STRUCTURE AND GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY . 0 3 Recent Economic Trends .* . 0 3 . 0 3 Principal Economic Sectors: . a. , 5 1. Agriculture . .e , e e . 2. Manufacturing . .a .. .. *o 9 3. Mining .. 10 4. Commerce . * * . * . a . * * . 11 6. Construction . * . 12 6o Tourism I * * * o *e * a * *9 * a 1? 7 . Transportation . 13 Employment, Income and Productivity . 14 IV. FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYM4ENTS . l5 V. FINANCIAL AND FISCAL POSITION: . 17 Money and Banking ------.----- 17 Other Financial Institutions . 18 Government Finances--------------------. .-. 19 VT ECONOTC PROSPECTS AND CRFDTOrTHTNESS---- - - ----- 21 Statistical Tnbl s P!S;ýTC MIVI'', Population (December 1962): 1,663,00 (Rate of Nlatural Increase 3.2% iRate of increase overv prvio s yea'r, nect off emigration i.%) Gross Fational Product Per Head (1961): U.S. $400 (atf ac+uo r cos t n l.L11I 7 -- l. f T) ~i-' -in1 l PLLic Dieuu (LeceMuer _3.L 27uC ) External: 118.0 million (U.S. $50.4 million) Total- Tn6 . m.iio r 3, ml lo'n OU -L r .L-L- - Oý u.- , ~-4) -L . _ý 1-L~ - .n ' - 1 9 56 1957 19-58 195ý9 196O 1961 1962 (l millionT- Gross Domestic Product: (at factor cost) 159 192 199 212 231 2hh 253 of which, in percentages: Whålesale & Retail 16 17 17 17 17 16 15 Manufacturing 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Agriculture 16 1h ih 13 12 13 13 Construction 13 l4 12 12 11 11 11 ining 6 9 9 3 9 9 9 Real GD( (at,195ý-prices) 159 182 14 195 207 212 Gross Fixed Investment (G'GDP) 25 27 24 22 22 21 18 Honey Suuply (December 31): .. 27 28 31 32 23 32 2alance of Pavments: Current Receipts .. 70 72 80 100 107 Current Pay-ments .. 82 82 96 111 11 . Current Account Balance .. -12 -10 -16 -11 -L -6 Inflow of long-term private capital .. 9 h 4 1 h 9anking Reserves (March 31) 12 1h 9 8 5 5 h 1958/59 1959/60 1960/l 1961/62 1962/63 Govern-ment Finnce s: Expenditures - Current 28.4 26.4 28.2 31.6 35.7 Expenditures - Capital 1.h 11.0 11.9 11.2 12.2 Expenditures - Total 32.8 37.h O.1 h2.8 47.9 Revenues - Total 28.6 31. 3.8 37.1 ,8 Balance ~.2 -6.0 -5.3 9.7 71 Financed. by: C.D. & W. Grants 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 Net borrowing 10.2 2.6 h.9 2.9 8.7 Chan-e in Reserves +6.7 -2.1 -0.1 -2.7 +2.0 Current surnus .2 .0 6.6 5.5 5. 1 As % of capital expenditure 5 45 55 b9 h2 T/TDeucting Sinking Fnds1 at face value. -L SUTMIARY AND CONCLUSIONS I 1. In 1962 Jamaica became an independent member of the British Commonwealth, and elected a new government; the West Indies Federation was dissolved. These events have been followed by a period of adjustment. 2. Growth in real terms averaged 7% in the years 1953-1960, mainly resultinc from the establishment and ranid exnansion of the hnuxite and alumina industries, the boom in construction, and the development of manufacturing. The tourit industry bcname an imnort.ant source of forpirn earnings. By 1961, these sectors were no longer expanding rapidly and the rate of gro-th fell to 2 5%5 n oee esi 19 629-. 'Th.l Governme,nt is prese.nt-'Qr fnae urith+1-he+ needA to~ sti4.U--A further economic growth. The 191 million five-year development plan nearly twice the average realized in recent years. Sources of finance are assumed to be general. revenue con-tributi.on and interna1 Loans 3 01 loans from overseas markets 28%, government-to-government "soft" loans and aidU 3. The- W1AmoU of. aid"hpedUU!foeig for isO proAbLCULY OVU. 11 optimistic. The Government's budgetary position is sound with surpluses on current account, but in the l.ast two fiscal years increases intur expenditures have reduced the current surpluses and the portion of capital expenuitures that could be financed from this source. Tuere iu ~uume cope for greater use of domestic resources, but the larger capital expenditures required for economic expansion, together with the trend to increa5ed current expenditures lead to a greater dependence on external borrowing. Political events in the Caribbean, added to independence itself, nave made it difficult to make public issues abroad. There is accordingly a greater dependence on other governmental and international agencies. 4. Total public external debt is blo.0 million. Debt charges repre- sented 2.7% of merchandise exports in 1962, and would rise to 4% if no further external borrowing were undertaken. The outlook for Jamaica's exports is quite good. Bauxite and alumina earnings, now more than double earnings from sugar, the traditional export product, should increase steadily. Sugar prices should remain buoyant until there are prospects of present shortages being overcome. While a repetition of the spec- tacular improvement in Jamaica's GDP of the 1950's is unlikely, there are prospects of steady economic growth. In these circumstances, a prudent borrowing program would be justified. T T.IqTMDAOTTTrPTrnT 10 Jmaia, i an ara ofL ",41 D4-1UCI- 1+1 11 ~ island in the Caribbean Sea. Cuba lies some 90 miles to the north and graphical regions - the Eastern Mountains, the Central and Western Plateau andBasins, and thle Coastal E±J±U.11. lilt; Ld~iCu71. 171VULIUML110,VI-L.1 LQ - over 6,000 feet, are so complex that only one main road crosses them. The k,entral ana western Plateau consisbs O. .LImbLM LULYe Lu.UUVtz;Inl UU LV- thirds of the island. The plateau surfaces are often irregular, due to erosion; some areas are desolate and almost uninhaidu, ut there e% also wide, fertile basins within the plateaux. Bauxite is found in the white limestone areas in the center of the island, estmatUd at 600 mU.LUlin tons and the largest workable deposits in the world. The Coast Plains, which vary in width from a few yards to several miles, contain some o tne richest soils in Jamaica, but are also the driest areas and irrigation is often necessary to obtain the maximum benefits from the land. About 4270 of total land area is unproductive, due largely to the mountainous nature of the terrain. In addition, unskilled farming over the years has laid waste much land. One of the most difficult problems in the development of the country is Dosed by the small farmer on steeply sloping land where often only trees grow well. 30% of the total land area which is unused is potentially productive for forestry and 12% for agriculture. 2. Jamaica lies within the tropics and the climate is therefore hot with the temperature often exceeding 9OF, especially from June to September. The reduction of temperature with increasing altitude allows a diversity of crops to be grown in the Island. Temperate fruits and vegetables such as peaches and potatoes may be grown in upland areas, while tropical crops (main-y sugar) flourish in the low-lands. There are wide variations in the amounts of rainfall, with great contrasts occurring within short distances. The mountains, especially their slopes facing north and east, receive most rain with rainfalls of 75-1C0 inches, while the average annual rainfall in the plains is under 50 inches. Prolonged droughts or heavy rains can occur anywhere at any time of the year. Rivers are too short and steep for naviga- tion and have limited value for hydro-electricity. 3. Total population is 1,663,000 including some 380,000 persons living in the Kingston Metropolitan area. There has been a considerable change in the composition of the population since 1943. The age group 14-4 has decreased from 475 to 4O5, mainly due to the large emigration of adults; the age aroup 0-9 increased from 25% to 30%. reflecting an increase in th.e birth rate but also a significant reduction in the infant mortality rate. About three-auarters of the poulation is of African ori2in. one-sixth of mixed racial origins, and the balance of East Indian, European, and Chinese origin. h. Per canita income is about U.S. h00. but the differences in income within the labor force itself are substantial. In the rural areas, where the marinritr f thp nt-nnlp. livp- t.hprp iq mucih sibsistence living on small plots of land or limited cash incomes. In both urban and rural areas there are subostantial unemployment.and nlm butint no grvtrnmrnt1 social welfare system. The sense of family obligation is real and assistance -2- but in 1943 one-third of the children of school age know members of the labor force ages 24-34) did not attend school.
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