Federal Reserve Bulletin January 1947

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Federal Reserve Bulletin January 1947 FEDERAL VE BULLETIN JANUARY 1947 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM WASHINGTON Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EDITORIAL COMMITTEE ELLIOTT THURSTON WOODLIEF THOMAS CARL E. PARRY The Federal Reserve BULLETIN is issued monthly under the direction of the staff editorial committee. This committee is responsible for interpretations and opinions expressed, except in official statements and signed articles. CONTENTS PAGE Review of the Month—Recent Market Developments. 1-10 International Monetary Fund Statement Concerning Initial Par Values. 11-12 Report by the Council of Economic Advisers. 13-25 Law Department: Cessation of Hostilities: Statement by the President 26 Cessation of Hostilities of World War II by the President of the United States of America. Proclamation 2714. 26-27 Regulation T: Exercise of Rights to Subscribe .... 27 Transactions of Customers Who Are Brokers or Dealers. 27 Regulation U—Determination and Effect of Purpose of Loan. 27 Consumer Credit: Credits Extended Before December 1, 1946 27-28 Conversion of Non-Instalment Credit to Instalment Basis. 28 Preservation of Records. 28 Automobile Appraisal Guides. ... 28-30 Suit Regarding Removal of Bank Directors. ... 30-34 Foreign Funds Control—Treasury Department Releases. 34-35 Current Events 36-37 National Summary of Business Conditions. 38-39 Financial, Industrial, Commercial Statistics, U. S. (See p. 41 for list of tables) 41-93 International Financial Statistics (See p. 94 for list of tables). 94-111 Board of Governors and Staff; Open Market Committee and Staff; Federal Ad- visory Council 112 Senior Officers of Federal Reserve Banks; Managing Officers of Branches 113 Map of Federal Reserve Districts. 114 Federal Reserve Publications (See inside of bac\ cover) Subscription Price of BULLETIN Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 3 3 January 1947 NUMBER 1 RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Aggregate production and employment reductions is indicated by quotations for have increased somewhat further in recent future contracts substantially below cash months despite interruptions in activity prices. In retail markets many merchants owing to industrial disputes and continued marked down prices of various items of mer- shortages of raw materials, transportation chandise before the end of the Christmas equipment, and skilled labor. Nevertheless, buying season, and special sales following the the exceptionally high level of current in- holiday resulted in additional price reduc- comes, together with the wartime accumula- tions. tion of deferred needs and of liquid assets, In a period of changing prices producers has continued to result in a level of demand and distributors generally find it difficult to generally in excess of the supply of goods appraise accurately the longer term markets available, and there has been a further for their goods. These difficulties were con- marked rise in the average level of prices, siderably enhanced under the conditions pre- especially since the ending of Federal price vailing during most of 1946. The economy controls. was completing the reconversion of its pro- Generally high production levels during ductive facilities from war to peacetime uses the past twelve months have added consider- and there were large unsatisfied demands ably to the greatly depleted stocks of civilian as a result of wartime restrictions on output goods held by manufacturers, distributors, of civilian goods and of the wartime growth and consumers at the end of the war. At in business and consumer incomes and in the sharply advanced price levels now pre- holdings of liquid assets. Moreover, during vailing numerous businessmen, especially dis- the war there were marked shifts in price tributors of nondurable goods and certain and income relationships and some of these durable goods like jewelry and furniture, shifts were certain to be transitory. have reduced considerably their commit- If there is sufficiently general recognition ments for goods. Outstanding orders in of the many market readjustments which are most durable goods industries appear to have yet to be made and action is taken promptly been maintained in record volume. to anticipate those developments, the effect In some markets actual or prospective in- of speculative activities may be diminished creases in supplies have resulted in reductions and the severity of subsequent readjustments in prices from earlier peaks. Prices of a reduced. The observance of a general mar- number of basic agricultural commodities ket policy of resisting price advances and of have declined, and the possibility of further promptly reducing inflated prices would go JANUARY 1947 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REVIEW OF THE MONTH far towards adjusting the economy to a basis manufactured foods and beverages—largely which would permit sustained high produc- due to the recovery in output of meat and tion and distribution of goods and high em- grain products—and in cotton textiles, to- ployment. bacco, paper, rubber, and petroleum products. Production of these goods and other non- INCREASED SUPPLIES OF GOODS durable products during most of 1946 ranged up to 60 per cent larger than the volume of Total value of goods marketed by pro- output available for civilian use during most ducers of both agricultural and industrial INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION products increased sharply in the latter part POINTS IN PER CENT of 1946. This development reflected further 260 t 140 AL - 240 MACt1INERYAN 3 120 increases in the quantity of goods produced, V rRAN 3P0R rATION \ EQIHPM INT additional advances in wholesale.prices, and 220 \3 100 NONDUR/ a greater disposition to offer goods for sale. 200 MANUFAC1rURES / 80 The freer offerings of goods by producers 180 1 60 1 / . were partly a response to the more attractive 160 A i- X 40 OTHER \ t DURABLE N level of prices but reflected also a growing 140 f r 20 tendency among buyers to restrict their com- 120 r n V f mitments because of greater uncertainty con- J too J 20 cerning maintenance of recent advanced r MINERALS 80 i 0 price levels and because of fairly large ac- 1940 1942 1944 1946 1940 1942 J944 1946 cumulations of merchandise in some lines. Federal Reserve indexes. Monthly figures; latest shown are The total quantity of manufactured goods estimates for December. produced was 7 per cent larger in the fourth of 1945, while the civilian population had in- quarter of 1946 than in the middle of the year creased less than 10 per cent as a result of and* for the year as a whole was three-fourths demobilization. greater than the 1935-39 average. This was The country's agricultural production, about double the volume of manufactures which is the major source of the raw food- produced for civilian use during most of stuffs and materials used in manufacturing 1945. The recent increase to new record nondurable goods, and of those foods which peacetime levels occurred despite production are consumed without further processing, losses due to the curtailment in trucking and was nearly as large in 1946 as in the previous maritime shipments in October and a two- year. The quantity of most crops harvested, and-a-half week work stoppage in bitumi- with the major exception of cotton, exceeded nous coal mining terminated December 9. any previous records. Production of grains Production of most finished goods for con- was 6 per cent larger than in 1945 and 40 sumer use expanded further with especially per cent greater than in 1940. Even with the marked gains shown by durable goods. expansion in the number of livestock on Nondurable goods—Output of nondurable farms in recent years, supplies of feed grains manufactured goods during the autumn was per animal unit during the current season are about 5 per cent larger than during the sum- estimated to be the largest on record. This mer months, as shown in the chart. The is already being reflected in increased feeding largest increases occurred in production of of livestock and would ordinarily be expected FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REVIEW OF THE MONTH also to encourage the raising of more animals. reached in 1941. The manufacture of auto- Hog prices, after declining in December, mobile replacement parts was continuing at were still 45 per cent higher than at the end an exceptionally high rate. Output of most of December 1945 while corn prices were other consumer durable goods also showed only 15 per cent higher and as a result price very sharp advances in the second half of the relationships were exceptionally favorable for year. Electrical appliances were being pro- hog production. Preliminary reports, how- duced at above the advanced 1941 level and ever, indicate that the spring pig crop will be manufacture of furniture, jewelry, and house- only slightly larger than last year's rather wares was also in record volume. small crop. Production of various types of producers' At present price levels record acreages of durable goods such as trucks, electrical equip- most crops in 1947 are to be anticipated. ment, and farm machinery, which had been Prices of corn, even after the sharp declines curtailed in the early part of 1946 by indus- during the second half of 1946 from $2.25 trial disputes, showed a considerable advance per bushel to $1.35, were nearly double the in the last half of the year. Truck produc- prewar level and at those levels might be tion reached the highest rate on record and expected to encourage another year of large was about 75 per cent above average produc- plantings. December reports on winter tion in 1935-39. Output of farm machinery wheat indicate that the harvest next summer likewise increased to an exceptionally high may be 10 per cent larger than the bumper level in the last half of 1946.
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