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The Terms of Trade and the Rise of Argentina in the Long Nineteenth Century

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The Terms of Trade and the Rise of Argentina in the Long Nineteenth Century The Terms of Trade and the Rise of Argentina in the Long Nineteenth Century Joseph A. Francis A thesis submitted to the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. December 2013. - 1 - Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permit- ted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 75,746 words, inclusive of footnotes, but exclusive of appendices and bibliography. - 2 - Abstract Argentina’s early twentieth century is commonly portrayed as a ‘golden age’ in which it became ‘one of the richest countries in the world’. Here, however, this optimistic vision is challenged by placing Argentina within a new metanarrative of global divergence during the long nineteenth century. A massive terms-of-trade boom – the extent of which has not previously been appreciated – had profoundly uneven impacts across the periphery. Where land was abundant, frontiers could expand, leading to dramatic extensive (that is, aggregate) growth. An expanding frontier then had a safety-valve effect on labour markets, so capitalists responded to high wages by mechanising production, which raised labour productivity and, consequently, per capita incomes. In the land-scarce periphery, by contrast, deindus- trialisation led to increasing quantities of labour receiving diminishing returns by being applied to limited land resources. Similarly, Argentina’s own century-long terms-of-trade boom allowed the Littoral to prosper but made the more densely populated interior stagnate. The presence of the poor interior then prevented the country from developing the kind of white-egalitarian democracy that had allowed the prosperous European offshoots to make the transition to rapid intensive (that is, per capita) growth. Most importantly, Argentina’s political backwardness ensured that landownership remained concentrated, which muted the safety-valve effect of the expanding frontier, so capitalists did not make the same investments in labour- saving technologies. The new metanarrative of global divergence thus leads to a far more pessimistic revision of Argentina at the beginning of the twentieth century – a revision that is verified through a comparative assessment of its living standards that shows them to have been considerably below the levels of Northern Europe and the European offshoots. Argentina’s ‘golden age’ is therefore a myth. - 3 - To Ron, Sally, Karen, y la changuita. - 4 - Acknowledgements Research for this dissertation received financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council. Colin Lewis was instrumental in my obtaining that funding, and provided patient supervision throughout my time at the LSE; Chris Minns came on board later as a second supervisor, and gave much useful advice; Max-Stephan Schulze excelled first as the PhD Programme Director, then as Head of Department; and Rose Harris in the Financial Office gave assistance at various times, especially when she rescued me from one particularly sticky situation. The dissertation, especially Chapter 2, benefited greatly from comments made by participants in the LSE Economic History Department’s Thesis Workshop, particularly Peter Sims. Alejandra Irigoin kindly invited me to participate at the New Economic Historians of Latin America workshop at the LSE on 26 April 2013, where I received valuable feedback on Chapter 5, above all from Alfonso Herranz-Loncan. Chapter 5 also benefited from being presented at the Oxford Economic & Social History Graduate Workshop at Nuffield College on 6 November 2013. Invaluable stimulation and support also came from Carlos Brando, Ulaş Karakoç, Cecilia Lanata Briones, Jesús Emilio Monzón, Felipe Pereira Loureiro, José Luis Quintana Goyeneche, Beatriz Rodriguez-Satizabal, Gerardo Serra, Leonardo Weller, and Bernardo Wjuniski. In Argentina I am indebted to the kindness of Jorge Gaggero, Juan Carlos Garavaglia, Norma Lanciotti, Marcelo Rougier, Ruth Sautu, and the late Jorge Schvarzer, as well as the librarians of the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, the Ministerio de Economía, and the Universidad de San Andrés. Elsewhere, thanks must be given to Cristián Ducoing Ruiz, Manuel Llorca-Jaña, Jonathan Nitzan, Jeffrey Williamson, and the staff of the Bodleian Library, the British Library, the British Library of Political and Economic Science, and Senate House Library. - 5 - Contents Declaration ........................................................................................................2 Abstract .............................................................................................................3 Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................5 Contents.............................................................................................................6 Illustrations........................................................................................................8 1. Introduction....................................................................................................11 From Pessimism to Optimism .........................................................................13 Pessimism Redux.............................................................................................19 The Terms of Trade .....................................................................................20 The Great Divergences ...............................................................................23 From Disorder to Order .............................................................................27 The Development Gap ................................................................................37 Numbers, Myths, Metanarratives ...............................................................39 Appendix 1.1: Argentina’s GDP, 1800-2012...................................................40 The Official Estimates, 1935-2012.............................................................41 The Unofficial Extensions, 1800-1935 .......................................................44 2. The Long Boom..............................................................................................56 Old and New Narratives ..................................................................................57 The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis ................................................................57 Williamson’s Narrative ...............................................................................60 The Downward Bias........................................................................................64 India’s Deindustrialisation...............................................................................80 Whither Ricardo?.............................................................................................84 Appendix 2.1: 21 Terms-of-Trade Estimates, 1750-1913 ...............................85 Appendix 2.2: India’s Terms of Trade, 1861-1913..........................................91 3. A New Order ..................................................................................................96 Land and Growth.............................................................................................97 - 6 - The United States......................................................................................100 The Followers...........................................................................................109 The Land-Scarce Regions..............................................................................113 The Global Reordering..................................................................................121 Appendix 3.1: Land and Population in 166 Countries ..................................123 4. Reordering the River Plate .........................................................................126 The Imperial Impact ......................................................................................127 Native Forces.................................................................................................136 The Civil Wars ..........................................................................................137 The Oligarchic State.................................................................................146 The Emerging Nation................................................................................157 Paradise Gained? ...........................................................................................172 Appendix 4.1: Argentina’s Terms of Trade, 1780-1938 ................................174 Exchange Rates ........................................................................................175 Wholesale Prices of Hides........................................................................176 The Export Price Index.............................................................................181 A Proxy Import Price Index......................................................................187
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