Acceleration of Plague Outbreaks in the Second Pandemic
Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic David J. D. Earna,b,c,1 , Junling Mad, Hendrik Poinarb,c,e,f , Jonathan Dushoffa,b,c , and Benjamin M. Bolkera,b,c aDepartment of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; bDepartment of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; cMichael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; dDepartment of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada; eMcMaster Ancient DNA Centre, Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; and fDepartment of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved August 19, 2020 (received for review March 25, 2020) Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of human). We argue that strictly pneumonic transmission in the plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 14th century is implausible but that beyond this the best that 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epi- can be done at present is to highlight the biological com- demics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the plexities and uncertainties that limit the potential for further Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated inferences. with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not Data provide enough information to infer the mode of plague trans- The city of London, United Kingdom, is unusual in the extent mission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude to which patterns of death and disease can be reconstructed estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed from extant documents.
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