Pandemics and Cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the Long-Run Remi Jedwab and Noel D. Johnson and Mark Koyama⇤ May 19, 2020 Abstract We ask what effects a high fatality rate pandemic could have on city growth. The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352. Using a novel dataset on Plague mortality at the city level, we explore the long-run impacts it had on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with populations returning to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study thus highlights the role played by pandemics and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of cities in less developed countries. JEL: R11; R12; O11; O47; J11; N00; N13 Keywords: Pandemics; Cities; Localized Shocks; Path Dependence ⇤Remi Jedwab: Department of Economics, George Washington University,
[email protected]. Noel Johnson: Department of Economics, George Mason University,
[email protected]. Mark Koyama: Department of Economics, George Mason University and CEPR.
[email protected]. We are grateful to Brian Beach, Sascha Becker, Hoyt Bleakley, Leah Boustan, Donald Davis, Jonathan Dingel, Dave Donaldson, Gilles Duranton, Oded Galor, Edward Glaeser, Stephan Heblich, Daniel Keniston, Jeffrey Lin, Ralf Meisenzahl, Stelios Michalopoulos, Jared Rubin, Daniel Sturm, Matthew Turner, David Weil and audiences at Barcelona-GSE, Bocconi, CEPR Economic History (Dublin), Chapman, Cliometrics (Pittsburgh), Columbia (Zoom), the Deep-Rooted Factors in Comparative Development Conference (Brown), George Mason, George Washington, Harvard, Michigan, NBER DAE, NBER Urban, Stellenbosch, Stanford, UEA (Philadelphia), and WEHC (Kyoto) for helpful comments.