DOCSLIB.ORG

Assessing the Origins of the European Plagues Following the Black Death: a Synthesis of Genomic, Historical, and Ecological Information

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Assessing the Origins of the European Plagues Following the Black Death: a Synthesis of Genomic, Historical, and Ecological Information Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: A synthesis of genomic, historical, and ecological information Barbara Bramantia,b,1,2, Yarong Wuc,1, Ruifu Yangc, Yujun Cuic,2, and Nils Chr. Stensetha,d,2 aCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; bDepartment of Neuroscience and Rehabilitation, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Prevention, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy; cState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; and dMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Edited by Joan E. Strassmann, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, and approved July 22, 2021 (received for review February 7, 2021) The second plague pandemic started in Europe with the Black Death newer hypothesis (Hypothesis 2) claims that the plague reservoir in 1346 and lasted until the 19th century. Based on ancient DNA was in Asia, possibly close to Eastern Europe (6, 7, 9, 11, 13). studies, there is a scientific disagreement over whether the bacterium, In order to more easily view the phylogeny from the second Yersinia pestis, came into Europe once (Hypothesis 1) or repeatedly plague pandemic and to better contrast the evidence for the two over the following four centuries (Hypothesis 2). Here, we synthesize hypotheses, we generated two schematic figures (Fig. 2) and a the most updated phylogeny together with historical, archeological, table (Table 1). evolutionary, and ecological information. On the basis of this holistic Hypothesis 1 is supported by a phylogenetic analysis based on view, we conclude that Hypothesis 2 is the most plausible. We also the currently available ancient genomes, which infers high posterior suggest that Y. pestis lineages might have developed attenuated vir- probability for a Western European source of the transmissions on ulence during transmission, which can explain the convergent evolu- the post–Black Death branch (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). However, as pla tionary signals, including decay, that appeared at the end of the the dataset includes 41 ancient genomes from Western Europe pandemics. against only 8 strains from Eastern Europe (including Gdansk and Riga), the proposed origins from Western Europe are likely to EVOLUTION Black Death | European plague | Yersinia pestis | molecular evolution | be biased toward a European reservoir due to a size-effect bias. ecological epidemiology Notably, the most basal genome LAI009 (4) (the Black Death’s lineage), Bolgar (at the root of Branch 1), and the most recent esearchers agree that the second plague pandemic was caused Yersinia pestis – genome [CHE1 (7)] all originated from Western Russia, implying Rby (1 9), which arrived in Europe from Caffa that they might have been closer to a putative Asian or Eastern transported by Genoese galleys on the Black Sea at the beginning European reservoir. This continuity does represent strong evi- of the Black Death (10). However, there is no consensus among dence in support of Hypothesis 2. researchersastotheoriginsofplagueepidemicsinEuropefollowing Using only genomic data, Hypothesis 1 might be seen as the most the Black Death and ravaging Europe until the 19th century, as parsimonious hypothesis since it proposes an internal source for all attested by historical documents (11). western Eurasian outbreaks. However, for two locations (Pestbacken, The two main theories are that one or more plague reservoirs Sweden 1710 [PEB10] and Marseille, France 1722 [OBS]), an origin remained in Western Europe during the entire second plague pandemic (referred to in the following as Hypothesis 1) (3, 4, 8, 12) or the bacteria repeatedly invaded Europe from non–Western Significance European reservoir(s) during the same period (referred to in the following as Hypothesis 2) (6, 7, 9, 11, 13). Here, we assess these Over the last few years, there has been a great deal of scientific two hypotheses using a broad spectrum of evidence, including debate regarding whether the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, historical and archeological, genetic, evolutionary, and ecological spread from a Western European reservoir during the second information. plague pandemic, or if it repeatedly came to Europe from Asia. Here, we make a synthesis of the available evidence, including Results and Discussion genomes of ancient DNA and historical, archeological, and eco- Assessment of the Two Hypotheses. For the purpose of understanding logical information. We conclude that the bacterium most likely the evolution of the plague bacteria, more than 100 ancient Y. pestis came to Europe from Asia several times during the second genomes have been published to date. The last 17 were recently plague pandemic. reported during a short period by four distinct research groups (7–9, 12). Using most of the ancient genomes (criteria for exclusion are Author contributions: B.B. conceived the work; N.C.S. established the author team; B.B., Methods Y.C., and N.C.S. designed research; Y.W. analyzed the data, and designed and generated described in ), along with 499 modern ones, we present the phylogeny; B.B. wrote the paper with contributions from Y.W., R.Y., Y.C., and N.C.S.; here the most updated phylogeny (Fig. 1). and R.Y. and N.C.S. supervised the work. The updated phylogeny confirms the almost clonal nature of the The authors declare no competing interest. Black Death strains in comparison to all other lineages of the second This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. Pestis secunda plague pandemic, including the strains from the This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- [Ber37 and Ber 45, The Netherlands (6), and BolgarCity2370, Russia NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND). (3)], which are placed on Branch 1 [see also London-Ind6330, See online for related content such as Commentaries. United Kingdom (3)], as well as to all other strains, which are placed 1B.B. and Y.W. contributed equally to this work. – on the post Black Death branch. There is general agreement that 2To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected], n.c. the post–Black Death branch was hosted in a novel wild rodent [email protected], or [email protected]. reservoir—either in Europe or outside Europe (3–8, 12, 14). The This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/ original hypothesis (Hypothesis 1) claims that such a plague reservoir doi:10.1073/pnas.2101940118/-/DCSupplemental. existed in Western Europe (15), perhaps in the Alps (16). However, a Published August 31, 2021. PNAS 2021 Vol. 118 No. 36 e2101940118 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101940118 | 1of6 Downloaded by guest on October 4, 2021 AB Fig. 1. Phylogeny and archaeological site locations of ancient genomes. (A) A maximum likelihood phylogeny was obtained with 574 genomes of Y. pestis (including 75 ancient genomes) involved based on 12,608 SNPs. The numbers at each node indicate the bootstrap values of 1,000 replicates. Branches highlighted in blue correspond to the second pandemic, which is subdivided in three groups: the 14th to 15th century group, which also includes the Black Death and the Pestis secunda (1,357 to 1,366) strains; the 15th to 17th century group; and the 18th century group (which also includes the BED genomes for homogeneity). Branches in purple correspond to the first Pandemic, and branches in green correspond to the prehistoric plague. The ratio between the depth of pla and that of the entire pPCP1 plasmid for all ancient genomes is shown in the rightmost heatmap, with a color scale ranging from 0 (dark blue) to 130+ (dark red). (B) Geographic distribution of the three waves during the second pandemic. 2of6 | PNAS Bramanti et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101940118 Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: A synthesis of genomic, historical, and ecological information Downloaded by guest on October 4, 2021 Hypothesis 1: The 18th c. Plague Hypothesis 2: CHE1 1720+ The 18th c. Plague Plague developed in CHE1 1720+ Plague was repeatedly reservoirs in the Alps imported to W-Eu where recirculated in chains of ROSTOV 2033,1762-73 ROSTOV 2033,1762-73 human transmission OBS 1722 OBS 1722 PEB10 1710-1 PEB10 1710-1 AZOV38 (15th-18th c.) AZOV38(15th-18th c.) BED, London (16th-17th c.) BED, London (16th-17th c.) = = GDANSK8 1425-1469 GDANSK8 1425-1469 ELLWANGEN (15th-17th c.) ROSTOV 2039,1762-73 ELLWANGEN (15th-17th c.) ROSTOV 2039,1762-73 SPN 1636 NMS002, Cambridge (15th-17th c.) SPN 1636 NMS002, Cambridge (15th-17th c.) BRA G701, Riga (15th-17th c.) BRA G701, Riga (15th-17th c.) The Thirty Years LAR LBG LAR LBG STN STN War’s Clade(1618-1648) The “Alpine” Clade STA001 (15th-17th c.) STA001 (15th-17th c.) Imported during war MAN008 COL001 MAN008 COL001 Imported by ship LAI009 Ber37, Ber45 LAI009 Ber37, Ber45 Branch0 BD Branch1 Branch 0 BD Branch 1 Port or trade center Bolgar Bolgar Eastern Europe/Central Asia BD 1346-1353 BD 1346-1353 Pestis secunda 1357-1366 Pestis secunda 1357-1366 Western Europe Fig. 2. Schematic comparison between the two main hypotheses for the interpretation of the Y. pestis phylogeny of the second plague pandemic. Historic and evolutionary information is included in the schematic figures. In addition to the symbols explained in the figure, we outlined in red the strains showing the 49-kb deletion. Pla decay (meaning both, full, or partial absence of the pla gene) is indicated by the names in bold. from the Ottoman Empire is historically and archaeologically well Hypothesis 1 assumes the existence of a wild rodent plague res- supported (7). Thus, Hypothesis 1 needs to account for a back and ervoir in the Alps, which is not supported by ecological evidence forth spread, which reintroduced plague on two occasions to the (13).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Epidemic of Justinian (Ad 542): a Prelude to the Middle Ages 1. Introduction
    Acta Theologica Supplementum 7 2005 THE EPIDEMIC OF JUSTINIAN (AD 542): A PRELUDE TO THE MIDDLE AGES ABSTRACT The epidemic that struck Constantinople and the surrounding countries during the reign of Justinian in the middle of the 6th century, was the first documented pan- demic in history. It marked the beginning of plague as a nosological problem that would afflict the world until the 21st century. The symptoms of the disease, as de- scribed by various contemporary writers (especially the historian and confidant of the emperor, Procopius, and the two church historians, John of Ephesus and Euagrius), are discussed. There is little doubt that the disease was the plague. The most com- mon form in which it manifested was bubonic plague, which is spread by infected fleas and is not directly contagious from patient to patient. There is also evidence of septicaemic plague and possibly even pneumonic plague. The disastrous effects of the plague were described vividly by contemporary writers. A major problem was to find ways to dispose of infected corpses. It is estimated that about one third of the popu- lation died — a figure comparable to the death rate during the Black Death in the Middle Ages. Famine and inflation, the depopulation of the countryside, and a cri- tical manpower shortage in the army were further effects which all contributed to bringing to a premature end Justinian’s attempt to restore the grandeur of the Roman empire, and precipitating the advent of the Middle Ages. 1. INTRODUCTION The epidemic which devastated Constantinople in the 6th century during the reign of Justinian formed part of the first genuine pandemic in history to be documented.
    [Show full text]
  • HIV/AIDS and the Black Death Report by Melissa Lane of a Discussion Meeting Held on 24 May 2004 Centre for History and Economics, King’S College, Cambridge
    1 HIV/AIDS and the Black Death Report by Melissa Lane of a discussion meeting held on 24 May 2004 Centre for History and Economics, King’s College, Cambridge The meeting grew out of collaborative work in the Centre, and as part of the Common Security Forum (CSF), on health, history, population and development over many years. CSF was pleased to be able to assemble such an interdisciplinary group of scholars – including medievalists, anthropologists, geographers, historians, political philosophers, economists -- to take part in the discussion and consider future initiatives in this area. A researcher on HIV/AIDS in Africa spoke first, outlining some of the questions and concerns of those working closely on and with societies afflicted by HIV/AIDS which might find historical resonance. These included the importance of the role and fate of individuals in the epidemic, rather than simply its gross quantitative impact; the surprising continuities, for example in aggregate economic indicators, which have so far been little affected by the epidemic; and most importantly, an ‘involution’ of many African institutions, which without the practical or intellectual tools to respond to the epidemic instead refine what they can do to the nth degree. We may unfortunately expect that the self-replicating capacity of HIV – its effects engendering the very social dislocation (hunger, migration, and so on) facilitating its spread – will make it ineradicable for a long time to come. Two presentations on the Black Death by medieval historians followed, both focusing on the episode from 1349-1350 in England. Historians present were skeptical about aspects of the comparison between the Black Death (‘ the plague’) and HIV/AIDS.
    [Show full text]
  • Unsolved Mysteries
    © 1993 Nature Publishing Group http://www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology /COMMENTARY• Unsolved Mysteries BERNARD DIXON he hand of the Lord was against fever nine years earlier, and show that most of those the city with a very great destruc­ patients had also developed rising levels of antibodies tion: and he smote the men of the against Legionella pneumophila. city, both small and great, and But what are the prospects of applying PCR to the ' they had emerods in their secret study of pathogens from previous centuries? As with parts" (1 Samuel 5:9). animal cells, the question hinges largely on finding What on earth was going on microbial DNA that has not been denatured and which here? An outbreak of hemor­ therefore still contains meaningful coding sequences. rhoids? Venereal disease? Bibli­ It's a fanciful idea at first, but on reflection the cal citations are not exactly thick on the ground at possibility of retrieving such material seems more scientific meetings, but these were the quotes with plausible than might be imagined. which veteran microbiologist Chris Collins opened Viruses can be maintained indefinitely, like chemi­ part of the Society for Applied Bacteriology's Sum­ cals, on a laboratory shelf. There seems every reason mer Conference in Nottingham last month. Theses­ to suppose, therefore, that some viruses of past times sion ranged over several "old plagues," including may have persisted in, for example, permafrost or several of disputed identity. It also prompted sugges­ desiccated burial vaults. The prospect of viable organ­ tions that the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), now isms being released from such sites was taken very widely famed for the fact and fantasy of amplifying seriously by the World Health Organization during human and other DNA from ancient bones, might also the smallpox eradication campaign of the 1970s, be used to retrieve microbial DNA and thus learn when Peter Razzell of Bedford College, London, something about infections in the mists of history.
    [Show full text]
  • Acceleration of Plague Outbreaks in the Second Pandemic
    Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic David J. D. Earna,b,c,1 , Junling Mad, Hendrik Poinarb,c,e,f , Jonathan Dushoffa,b,c , and Benjamin M. Bolkera,b,c aDepartment of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; bDepartment of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; cMichael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; dDepartment of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada; eMcMaster Ancient DNA Centre, Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; and fDepartment of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved August 19, 2020 (received for review March 25, 2020) Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of human). We argue that strictly pneumonic transmission in the plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 14th century is implausible but that beyond this the best that 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epi- can be done at present is to highlight the biological com- demics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the plexities and uncertainties that limit the potential for further Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated inferences. with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not Data provide enough information to infer the mode of plague trans- The city of London, United Kingdom, is unusual in the extent mission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude to which patterns of death and disease can be reconstructed estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed from extant documents.
    [Show full text]
  • Aow 1920 38 Pandemics Change
    1. Mark your confusion. 2. Show evidence of a close reading. 3. Write a 1+ page reflection. How Pandemics Change Society The Black Death, the Spanish Flu, and other widespread disease outbreaks have transformed how people live. Here's everything you need to know: Source: TheWeek.com, May 24, 2020 Will Covid-19 change the world? Yes, if it's similar to the pandemics of the past. Plagues and viral contagions have regularly blighted the course of human civilization, killing millions of people and wreaking economic devastation. But as each pandemic receded, it left cultural, political, and social changes that lasted far beyond the disease itself. The great outbreaks of history — including the Athenian Plague, the Black Death, and the Spanish Flu — transformed health care, economics, religion, the way we socialize, and the way we work. "Things are never the same after a pandemic as they were before," said Dr. Liam Fox, a former U.K. defense secretary who's studied these outbreaks for a forthcoming book. "The current outbreak will be no exception." When was the first pandemic? The earliest on record occurred during the Peloponnesian War in 430 B.C. Now believed to have been a form of typhoid fever, that particular "plague" passed through Libya, Ethiopia, and Egypt before striking the city of Athens, then under siege by Sparta. Thucydides chronicled Athens' misery in lucid detail, writing of sufferers' lesions, red skin, and bloody throats and tongues, and the apocalyptic scenes within the city's walls as "dying men lay tumbling one upon another in the streets." The plague would ultimately play a large part in Athens' eventual defeat by Sparta, and the sense of despair led to a surge in licentiousness among the population.
    [Show full text]
  • The Black Death
    DISEASE IN HUMAN HISTORY PANDEMICS, OUTBREAKS AND DISEASES PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN • 541-542 Yersinia pestis • rats on Egyptian grain boats Easter Roman Empire (Constantinople) • approximately 25 million people dead • Justinian contracted the disease- lived • 5,000 people died per day in Constantinople, the empire’s capital • By its end, about 40 percent of the city’s population was dead • bodies were left in piles • one-fourth of the Eastern Mediterranean populace died • first recorded case of the bubonic plague • Last recurrence was 750 ( no pandemic on similar scale until 14th century Europe) BLACK PLAGUE • Three types of plague bubonic, pneumonic, and septic • First recorded outbreak in Eastern Roman empire (plague of Justinian) 541-542 25 million died • rats from Egypt imported grain • 50 million died from two centuries of recurrence • 1346-1353 Black Death 75-200 million people in Eurasia and Europe originated in Mongolia/China in 1330s • Third outbreak in mid 19th century in China in 1855 spread to India (12.5 million deaths over 30 years) , 2 million in China • Outbreaks still occur in developing countries, endemic in 26 countries, deaths yearly are less than 200. • Is in SW USA rare disease in humans in USA THE BLACK DEATH 1341-1351 GLOBAL POPULATION OF 450 MILLION 75 MILLION-200 MILLION DIED HALF OF EUROPE KNOWN AS BUBONIC PLAGUE BACTERIA YERSINIA PESTIS SPANISH FLU OUTBREAK OF 1918 • Kansas was first case • H1N1 Influenza • One in five mortality (20%) 50 million people worldwide HIV • Still a problem • Originating in Cameroon and first recognized as a disease in 1981, the earliest documented case is believed to be in 1959 in the Congo.
    [Show full text]
  • Human Ectoparasites and the Spread of Plague in Europe During the Second Pandemic
    Human ectoparasites and the spread of plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic Katharine R. Deana,1, Fabienne Krauera, Lars Walløeb, Ole Christian Lingjærdec, Barbara Bramantia,d, Nils Chr. Stensetha,1, and Boris V. Schmida,1 aCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; bDepartment of Physiology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, N-0317 Oslo, Norway; cDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; and dDepartment of Biomedical and Specialty Surgical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Prevention, University of Ferrara, 35-441221 Ferrara, Italy Contributed by Nils Chr. Stenseth, December 4, 2017 (sent for review September 4, 2017; reviewed by Xavier Didelot and Kenneth L. Gage) Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, can spread through of the population. Many studies (4, 6, 7) have suggested that human human populations by multiple transmission pathways. Today, most ectoparasites, like human fleas and body lice, were more likely than human plague cases are bubonic, caused by spillover of infected fleas commensal rats to have caused the rapidly spreading epidemics. from rodent epizootics, or pneumonic, caused by inhalation of infec- Proponents of the “human ectoparasite hypothesis” argue that tious droplets. However, little is known about the historical spread of plague epidemics during the Second Pandemic differ from the rat- plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic (14–19th centuries), associated epidemics that occurred later, during the Third Pan- includingtheBlackDeath,whichledtohighmortalityandrecurrent demic. Specifically, the geographic spread and total mortality of the epidemics for hundreds of years. Several studies have suggested that Black Death far exceeds that of modern plague epidemics (8).
    [Show full text]
  • WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2 Plague Manual: Epidemiology
    WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2 Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control World Health Organization Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response This document has been downloaded from the WHO/EMC Web site. The original cover pages and lists of participants are not included. See http://www.who.int/emc for more information. © World Health Organization This document is not a formal publication of the World Health Organization (WHO), and all rights are reserved by the Organization. The document may, however, be freely reviewed, abstracted, reproduced and translated, in part or in whole, but not for sale nor for use in conjunction with commercial purposes. The views expressed in documents by named authors are solely the responsibility of those authors. The mention of specific companies or specific manufacturers' products does no imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the World Health Organization in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2 Distribution : General Original : English Plague Manual Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control PRINCIPAL AUTHORS Dr David T. Dennis and Dr Kenneth L. Gage National Center for Infectious Diseases Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Fort Collins, Colorado, USA Dr Norman Gratz, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Jack D. Poland, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA Dr Evgueni Tikhomirov, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2 Plague Manual Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance
    [Show full text]
  • What Caused the Black Death? C J Duncan, S Scott
    315 HISTORY OF MEDICINE Postgrad Med J: first published as 10.1136/pgmj.2004.024075 on 5 May 2005. Downloaded from What caused the Black Death? C J Duncan, S Scott ............................................................................................................................... Postgrad Med J 2005;81:315–320. doi: 10.1136/pgmj.2004.024075 For the whole of the 20th century it was believed that the But this unknown disease had not disappeared completely and there were epidemics scattered Black Death and all the plagues of Europe (1347–1670) through Europe during the 1350s.5 Thereafter, were epidemics of bubonic plague. This review presents the plague was permanently established in evidence that this view is incorrect and that the disease was France with epidemics every year that cycled round the main trading routes. From there, a viral haemorrhagic fever, characterised by a long infected travellers carried the disease by road incubation period of 32 days, which allowed it to be and river across the continental landmass and by spread widely even with the limited transport of the Middle sea to Britain and Ireland. But all these peripheral epidemics died out completely and Ages. It is suggested that haemorrhagic plague emerged were restarted by fresh infectives coming from from its animal host in Ethiopia and struck repeatedly at the focus in France.4 European/Asian civilisations, before appearing as the The epidemics progressively increased in spread, frequency, and ferocity (fig 1) with a Black Death. The CCR5-D32 mutation confers protection pronounced rise after 1550 because transport against HIV-1 in an average of 10% of the people of improved and the population of the towns European origin today.
    [Show full text]
  • The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for Covid-19
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE 1918 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC AND ITS LESSONS FOR COVID-19 Brian Beach Karen Clay Martin H. Saavedra Working Paper 27673 http://www.nber.org/papers/w27673 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 2020 We thank Guido Alfani, Doug Almond, Vellore Arthi, David Bloom, Bill Collins, Sergio Correia, James Feigenbaum, Walker Hanlon, Eric Hilt, Carl Kitchens, Noel Johnson, Michael Kuhn, Josh Lewis, Stephan Luck, Analisa Packham, Klaus Prettner, Sarah Quincy, Claire Saavedra, Ellis Tallman, François Velde, and Emil Verner for their helpful comments. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from Heinz College at Carnegie Mellon University, Oberlin College, and Vanderbilt University. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2020 by Brian Beach, Karen Clay, and Martin H. Saavedra. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19 Brian Beach, Karen Clay, and Martin H. Saavedra NBER Working Paper No. 27673 August 2020 JEL No. I10,J10,J24,N0 ABSTRACT This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19.
    [Show full text]
  • The Plague That Never Left: Restoring the Second Pandemic to Ottoman and Turkish History in the Time of COVID-19
    176 The plague that never left: restoring the Second Pandemic to Ottoman and Turkish history in the time of COVID-19 Nükhet Varlık NEW PERSPECTIVES ON TURKEY We are now in the midst of the most significant pandemic in living memory. At the time of writing in August 2020, COVID-19 has resulted in more than 23 million confirmed cases and over 800,000 deaths globally, and continues to have a serious impact in all aspects of life. For the majority of the world’s living population, this is the first time they have experienced a full-blown pandemic of this scale. The influenza pandemics of the second half of the twentieth cen- tury, such as the “Asian flu” of 1957–8 or the “Hong Kong flu” of 1968–9, which caused over a million deaths each, are seemingly comparable examples; but they can only be remembered by those aged 65 and older, which is less than 10 percent of the world’s population.1 For everyone else, the current scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is far beyond anything they have seen or experi- enced during their lifetime. In the absence of knowledge drawn from comparable experience, all eyes are now turned to historical pandemics. Over the last few months, the history of pandemics – a topic that otherwise receives interest from a small group of enthusiasts and specialists – has quickly come to the attention of an anxious public in search of answers. It seems difficult to judge whether the interest of the public stems from a desire to draw practical lessons from the past, or per- haps from a need to seek comfort in the idea that pandemics like this (or per- haps even worse ones) occurred in the past.
    [Show full text]
  • Pandemics and Cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the Long-Run
    Pandemics and Cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the Long-Run Remi Jedwab and Noel D. Johnson and Mark Koyama⇤ May 19, 2020 Abstract We ask what effects a high fatality rate pandemic could have on city growth. The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352. Using a novel dataset on Plague mortality at the city level, we explore the long-run impacts it had on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with populations returning to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study thus highlights the role played by pandemics and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of cities in less developed countries. JEL: R11; R12; O11; O47; J11; N00; N13 Keywords: Pandemics; Cities; Localized Shocks; Path Dependence ⇤Remi Jedwab: Department of Economics, George Washington University, [email protected]. Noel Johnson: Department of Economics, George Mason University, [email protected]. Mark Koyama: Department of Economics, George Mason University and CEPR. [email protected]. We are grateful to Brian Beach, Sascha Becker, Hoyt Bleakley, Leah Boustan, Donald Davis, Jonathan Dingel, Dave Donaldson, Gilles Duranton, Oded Galor, Edward Glaeser, Stephan Heblich, Daniel Keniston, Jeffrey Lin, Ralf Meisenzahl, Stelios Michalopoulos, Jared Rubin, Daniel Sturm, Matthew Turner, David Weil and audiences at Barcelona-GSE, Bocconi, CEPR Economic History (Dublin), Chapman, Cliometrics (Pittsburgh), Columbia (Zoom), the Deep-Rooted Factors in Comparative Development Conference (Brown), George Mason, George Washington, Harvard, Michigan, NBER DAE, NBER Urban, Stellenbosch, Stanford, UEA (Philadelphia), and WEHC (Kyoto) for helpful comments.
    [Show full text]