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The Soft Power of Populist Politics: a Case Study of the Economic Freedom Fighters in the South African Context

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The Soft Power of Populist Politics: a Case Study of the Economic Freedom Fighters in the South African Context The Soft Power of Populist Politics: A Case Study of the Economic Freedom Fighters in the South African Context Marine Fölscher Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Political Science) in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Stellenbosch University. Supervisor: Dr Nicola de Jager March 2019 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Date: March 2020 Copyright © 2020 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract While in the past scholars of political science have generally thought democracy to die at the barrel of a gun – in coups and revolutions – the rise of populist politics has alerted the world to the possibility of democracy being strangled slowly in the name of ‘the people’. Populists consider society to be separated into two homogenous but antagonistic groups – the ‘pure people’ and the ‘corrupt elite’. While there has been much research into populism in the West, the particularities of the phenomenon within the African context are still emerging. The importance of a regional perspective becomes clear when one considers the deeply contextual nature of populist politics and the different iteration it therefore takes on the African continent: more economically focused than in the West, more prone to Marxist-socialist ideological underpinnings, reliant on a dual nexus of urban and ethnically-based rural support, and underpinning a rising wave of populism in post-liberation states aimed at former liberators. This study examines the phenomenon within the context of the current South African political climate, which is dominated by three political parties: the incumbent African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA) as the official opposition, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a growing populist party. The broader rationale of this research is to advance an understanding of how populist discourse works within the African political and socio-economic context by using a South African case study. More narrowly defined, the main research question guiding this analysis is: Could the EFF have led to a shift wherein the ANC and DA became more populist in their political rhetoric and discourse? The research thus focuses on the populist party’s ‘soft power’ – its ability to make others choose to follow its example through influence, not threats. If the EFF could shift the political rhetoric and policymaking in South Africa despite their inability to amass sufficient electoral support to attain the highest office in the land, what could this mean for other governments facing populist resurgences in democratic states? Clearly, the phenomenon of populist parties’ ‘soft power’ needs to be better understood and studied. The discourse-centred approach of this study allows for populists to be identified by their political rhetoric, with speeches by political leaders forming the primary data used to analyse the level of populist discourse of a particular party. A holistic textual grading method, first pioneered by Hawkins (2009), which scores political speeches on a scale of 0 – not populist at all – to 2 – extremely populist – is used. In this study, the coding rubric compiled by Hawkins ii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za (2009) is utilised to score 12 speeches. These include two each from the 2014 and 2019 electoral periods for each of the three biggest parties in South Africa. Through the combination of the above qualitative coding method and a desktop study, this study found that the EFF has not caused a marked increase in populist political rhetoric in the other two parties. However, the populist party does pose a danger to the as yet unconsolidated South African democracy owing to its illiberal and anti-pluralist tendencies, and because of the possibility that other parties may also choose to adopt some of the EFF’s policies and behaviour (rather than rhetoric) in order to sway voters. iii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Terwyl navorsers op die gebied in die verlede gedink het dat demokrasie voor die loop van 'n geweer sou sterf - tydens staatsgrepe en rewolusies - het die opkoms van populistiese politiek die wêreld gewaarsku van die moontlikheid dat demokrasie stadig maar seker verwurg kan word in die naam van ‘die mense'. Populiste beskou die samelewing as bestaande uit twee homogene, maar antagonistiese groepe - die 'suiwer mense' en die 'korrupte elite'. Alhoewel daar in die Weste baie navorsing omtrent die verskynsel is, is die besondere kenmerke van die verskynsel binne die Afrika-konteks steeds ontluikend. Die belangrikheid van 'n streeksperspektief word duidelik wanneer die kontekstuele aard van populistiese politiek in ag geneem word, sowel as die verskillende iterasies wat dit op die vasteland van Afrika neem: meer ekonomies gefokus as in Europa en Noord-Amerika, meer geneig tot Marxisties- sosialistiese ideologiese onderbou, afhanklik van 'n tweeledige samesmelting van stedelike en etnies-gebaseerde plattelandse steun, en gekenmerk deur ‘n nuwe golf van populisme in onafhanklike state wat op voormalige bevryders gemik is. Hierdie studie ondersoek die verskynsel binne die konteks van die huidige Suid-Afrikaanse politieke klimaat wat deur drie politieke partye oorheers word: die gevestigde African National Congress (ANC), die Demokratiese Alliansie (DA) as die amptelike opposisie, en ‘n jong, maar groeiende populistiese party, die Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Die breër rasionaal van hierdie navorsing is om 'n begrip te bevorder van hoe populistiese diskoers wbinne die politieke- en sosio-ekonomiese konteks in Afrika werk deur gebruik te maak van 'n Suid- Afrikaanse gevallestudie. Die navorsingsvraag wat hierdie ontleding lei, is nouer omskryf: Het die EFF die ANC en DA beïnvloed om meer populisties te raak in hul politieke retoriek en diskoers? Die navorsing fokus dus op die 'sagte mag' van die populistiese party - die vermoë om ander te laat kies om sy voorbeeld te volg deur sy invloed, nie deur dreigemente nie. As die EFF die politieke retoriek en beleidmakery in Suid-Afrika kan beïnvloed ondanks hul onvermoë om voldoende verkiesingssteun te bekom om die hoogste amp in die land te bereik, watter gevolge kan dit inhou vir ander regerings wat populistiese herlewings in demokratiese state in die gesig staar? Die verskynsel van populistiese partye se 'sagte mag' moet duidelik beter verstaan en bestudeer word. 'n Diskoergesentreerde benadering laat toe dat populiste deur hul politieke retoriek geïdentifiseer word. Toesprake van politieke leiers vorm die primêre data wat gebruik word iv Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za om die vlak van populistiese diskoers te ontleed. 'n Holistiese tekstuele beoordelingsmetode, baanbrekerswerk deur Hawkins (2009), wat politieke toesprake op 'n skaal van 0 – glad nie populisties nie – tot 2 – uiters populisties – beoordeel, word gebruik. In hierdie studie word die koderingsrubriek wat deur Hawkins (2009) saamgestel is, gebruik om 12 toesprake te beoordeel. Dit sluit twee uit die 2014 verkiesingstydperk en twee uit die 2019 verkiesingstydperk in vir elk van die drie grootste partye in Suid-Afrika. Deur die kombinasie van bogenoemde kwalitatiewe koderingsmetode en 'n ontleding van relevante literatuur het hierdie studie bevind dat die EFF nie 'n noemenswaardige toename in populistiese politieke retoriek by die ander twee partye veroorsaak het nie. Die populistiese party hou egter 'n gevaar in vir die nog nie-gekonsolideerde Suid-Afrikaanse demokrasie as gevolg van sy onliberale en anti-pluralistiese neigings, en as gevolg van die moontlikheid dat ander partye ook kan kies om 'n deel van die EFF se beleid en gedrag (eerder as retoriek) aan te neem om kiesers te laat swaai. v Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements Firstly, to my parents, Danie and Mariana Fölscher, who thought that their oldest child had finished her education at honours level but who nevertheless pretended to be pleasantly surprised when I continued on to masters, my everlasting thanks. Were it not for your emotional and financial support, I would not have had the privilege of attending university, much less of completing my postgraduate degree. To my academic supervisors, Dr Nicola de Jager, my undying gratitude for your guidance over the past year and your patience with my “rather ambitious” project plan. If my accelerated timeline tested your patience, there was never any hint of it, and the professionalism and care with which every one of my meetings and submissions was met is a testament both to your work ethic and to the calibre of staff in the hallowed halls of Stellenbosch University. Your introduction to Dr Robert Nyenhuis vastly improved the quality of this study, and I would like to thank Dr Nyenhuis for taking time out of his busy schedule to train me in the coding methods necessary for this study and to check my results against his own. I would like to extend a word of thanks to my editor, Professor Edwin Hees, for his patience with my revisions and questions at all hours of the day and for the extreme care with which he assisted me in fine-tuning this document. This study would have been immensely poorer were it not for your careful consideration of every “due to” and “because of”. Lerato Malepane helped with the Sepedi translations of sections of Julius Malema’s speeches, and has my appreciation for her willingness to help even while completing her own law degree. I am also grateful to Donovan Cloete from the ANC’s Department of Information and Publicity for his help in tracking down the vanished ANC speeches needed for this study.
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