Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 42107 September 2010
Uzbekistan: CAREC Corridor 2 Road Investment Program
Prepared by IKS Group of Companies Tashkent, Uzbekistan
For The Republican Road Fund under the Ministry of Finance
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
THE REPUBLICAN ROAD FUND UNDER THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE
CAREC Corridor 2 Road Investment Program FF ADB PPTA No. 7375-UZB II PROJECTS II & III NN VOLUME 1 AA LL
RR EE PP OO Submitted by: RR TT
Tashkent, September 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED
ADB Asian Development Bank AIFU Association of International Freight Forwarders of Uzbekistan AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic AOI Area of Influence CACOM Common Market in Central Asia CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CARs Central Asian Republics CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSATTF Central and South Asia Transport and Trade Forum CSP Country Strategy and Programme EA Executing Agency EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission ECO Economic Cooperation Organization ECOTA ECO Trade Agreement ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EU European Union EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community GDP Gross Domestic Product GOU Government of Uzbekistan JSC Joint Stock Company IKS IKS Croup of Companies IMF International Monetary Fund JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau km kilometers mm millimeters MFF Multitranche Financing Facility MOF Ministry of Finance MOFER Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations, Investments and Trade MOI Ministry of Interior m Metre m3 Cubic metres m3/hr Cubic metres per hour mm Millimetres MPa Megapascal MV motor vehicle PCEs Passenger Car Equivalents PIA Project Impact Area pkm passenger kilometres PPTA Project Preparation Technical Assistance PFR Periodic Financing Request SJSC State Joint Stock Company SOE State Owned Enterprise sq. square
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SSC State Stock Company SWOT Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities – Threats TA Technical Assistance TACIS Technical Assistance for CIS Countries t.km tonne kilometers TIR Transports Internationaux Routiers TOR Terms of Reference TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia UARRT Uzbek Agency for Road and River Transport UNECE United National Economic Commission for Europe US$ United States dollars USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics FSU Former Soviet Union UTY Uzbekistan Temir Yullari (Uzbek Railways) UZB Uzbekistan hp Horsepower ICB International competitive bidding JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency kg Kilogram SJSC State joint stock company tonnes/hr Tonnes per hour VAT Value added tax
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TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 General 1 1.2 Background 1 1.3 Project Rationale and Financing Modality 3 1.4 The Investment Program 4 1.4.1 Impact and Outcomes 4 1.4.2 Output 4 1.5 Other Administrative Matters 4
SECTION 2: A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE PROJECT ROAD HINTERLAND, TRAFFIC COUNTS AND FINAL TRAFFIC FORECASTS 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 General Background 5 2.3 Highlights of Recent Performance of Transport Sector of Uzbekistan 5 2.4 Assumptions as to Progress on Main Economic Indicators 6 2.5 Highlights of Accident Spots in A380 Corridor 6 2.6 Domestic Transport Demand 7 2.7 Factors Influencing International Trade along the Project Road 7 2.8 Domestic and Total Traffic 7 2.8.1 Background 7 2.8.2 Traffic Counts 8 2.9 International Traffic 8 2.10 Traffic Forecast over the Forecast Horizon 8
SECTION 3: ROAD DEVELOPMENT COMPONENT AND ROAD SUSTAINABILITY COMPONENT 3.1 Road Development Component 11 3.2 Road Sustainability Component of Projects 2 and 3 13 3.3 Transport Logistics Component, Project 3 13
SECTION 4: PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND COST OF ROAD RECONSTRUCTION FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3 4.1 Characteristics of the selected Sections of the Road 14 4.1.1 International Importance of Project Road A-380 14 4.2 Current Condition of the Road 16 4.3 Condition of the Road Bed 17 4.4 Condition of Pavement 18 4.5 Engineering Structures 18 4.6 Road Facilities Construction 19 4.7 Road Service 19 4.8 Alighnment 20 4.8.1. Main Parameters of the Designed Road 20 4.8.2 Roadbed 20 4.8.2.1 Type-1 (with the separated road bed) 20 4.8.2.2 Type-2 (with the single road bed) 20 4.8.3 Road Pavement 21 4.9 Bridges and pipes 22 4.9.1 Intersections & Junctions 22 4.9.2 Traffic Management and Road Facilities 22 4.9.3 Road Building Materials 23
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4.9.4 Engineering Utilities 24 4.10 Principle approach and methodology for approval of design options at the stage of feasibility study preparation 24 4.10.1 Category of Road, Number of Lanes and Pavement type 24 4.10.2 Road Alignment 24 4.10.3 Geological and Topographical Survey 25 4.10.4 Climate, Ground and Surface Waters, Soil Covering 26 4.10.5 Existing and Prospective Density and Composition of Traffic 26 4.10.6 Alignment 27 4.10.7 Vertical Alignment of the Road 27 4.10.8 Roadbed 27 4.10.9 Cross-Sections of the Road 27 4.10.10 Road pavement 28 4.10.11 Road Construction Materials 30 4.11 Methodology for determination of construction cost 30 4.12 Method for determination of work scope 32
SECTION 5: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3 5.1 Economic Analysis of Road Works 39 5.2 Findings 40 5.3 Sensitivity Analyses 40 5.4 Set of pile-boring equipment 41 5.3 Customs inspection-screening equipment complex 41
SECTION 6: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ISSUES AND FINANING PLAN FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3 6.1 Financial management Assessment 43 6.1.1 Executive Summary 43 A. Introduction 44 B Project Description 44 C Country Issues 44 D Risk Analysis 45 E Executing Agency and Implementing Entities 47 F Funds Flow Arrangements 49 G Staffing 50 H Accounting Policies and Procedures 51 I Internal Audit 52 J External Audit 53 K Financial Reporting and Monitoring 53 L Information Systems 54 M Conclusions 54 N Financial and Other Covenants and Recommendations 54 O Financing Plan 55
SECTION 7: PRELIMINARY PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3 7.1 The Executing Agency 57 7.2 Program Management Unit (PMU) 57 7.3 Main responsibilities of PMU 57 7.4 Consulting Services 58 7.5 Advance Contracting and Retroactive Financing 58 7.6 Implementation period 59
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SECTION 8: PROCUREMENT PLAN FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3 60
SECTION 9: PROJECT DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK 61
LIST OF APPENDIXES APPENDIX 1: OVERALL ROAD INVESTMENT PLAN (CONSTRUCTION AND RECONSTRUCTION) APPENDIX 2: TRAFFIC COUNT AND OD ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY APPENDIX 3(A): VARIOUS CROSS SECTIONS APPENDIX 3(B): HORIZONTAL ALIGHNMENT APPENDIX 4: HDM IV INPUTS AND OPUTPUTS, EIRR AND NPV TABLES FOR ALL SECTIONS OF THE ROAD APPENDIX 5: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT QUESTIONNAIRE APPENDIX 6: BUDGET FORMULATION AND APPROVAL PROCEDURES APPENDIX 7: RATES OF CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE REPUBLICAN ROAD FUND UNDER THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE APPENDIX 8: CHART OF ACCOUNTS (NATIONAL ACCOUNTING STANDARDS NO.21) APPENDIX 9: INVESTMENT PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION STRUCTURE APPENDIX 10: DRAFT PREIODIC FINANCING REQUESTS APPENDIX 11: IMPLEMENTATION PLAN APPENDIX 12: PROCUREMENT PLAN AND TENTATIVE CONTRACT PACKAGES FOR PROJECT 2 & 3
FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 – UZBEKISTAN ROAD CORRIDORS FIGURE 2.1 – ALTERNATIVE ROUTE THROUGH CHIMKENT FIGURE 3.1 – PROJECT SECTIONS FIGURE 6.1 – THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN ROAD FUND
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SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 General
1. Under a Contract signed between IKS Ltd. (the Consultant) and the Asian Development Bank (the Bank), IKS Ltd. undertook the Technical Assistance (TA) assessing the feasibility of rehabilitation and upgrading of Road A380 Guzar-Bukhara-Nukus-Beyneu. Out of about 1,200 km A380 highway, 300 km is being constructed and 900 km will be reconstructed during 2010–2014. ADB’s investment for reconstructing of A-380 highway will help the Government accelerate completion of the overall program. The Investment Program will cover about 222 km of A380 highway in the Karakalpakstan Republic and the Khorezm and Bukhara provinces. ADB’s Multitranche Financing Facility (MFF) with 3 tranches will be applied for the Investment Program.
2. In February, 2010 Consultant submitted the appraisal report of Tranche 1 and current appraisal report is for subsequent Tranches 2 and 3 that includes technical, economic, financial, environmental, and social assessments and PFRs for Tranches II and III.
3. The road A 380 links the area southeast of Karshi in Kashkadarya Oblast with Beyneu on the border of Kazakhstan. The route forms part of the Asian Highway being promoted by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations. (ESCAP). Should the feasibility of the proposed rehabilitation and upgrading works be confirmed, it is anticipated that a Loan Proposal for the foreign component of Project inputs would be presented to the Board of the ADB in the first quarter of 2011.
4. This Final Report commences with a discussion of the Impacts of the Project and rationale and financing modality of it. The output of the TA is also presented as are activities undertaken since 1 July 2010.
5. In Section 2, final traffic forecasts are shown for the sections of the road selected for upgrading following receipt of the latest information on border passages received from the State Customs committee in January 2010. Section 3 presents the development proposal indicating proposed physical investment and Technical Assistance interventions in support of the restructuring of the road subsector.
6. Section 4 presents a preliminary design and costs of the development proposal and associated TA activities.
7. The economic analysis is presented in Section 5. The preparation of safeguard analysis is discussed in Volumes II and III. The results of the administration of the relevant sections of the ADB’s Financial Management Assessment Questionnaire are presented in Section 6 along with the Financing Plan and Financial analysis of Project implementation activities and loan repayment. Implementation and procurement plans are discussed in Sections 7 and 8. The Report concludes with a discussion of the variables to be included in a benefit monitoring framework.
8. A series of appendices supports the Report.
1.2 Background
9. Uzbekistan’s major public roads, totaling 42,530 kilometres (km), are divided into international (3,626 km), national (16,909 km), and regional (local) roads (21,995 km). (Figures 1.1). In addition, there are about 140,000 km of urban, rural and departmental roads.
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Figure1.1
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10. In general, despite a few missing links, the road network has good coverage and sufficient capacity to accommodate the moderately growing traffic demand. Most major corridors are dual carriageway and the current volume capacity ratios are relatively low. Part of the network is in poor condition and requires rehabilitation. The road quality is deteriorating because of a maintenance backlog. Poor signposting and road markings on some roads have been observed, thus raising road-safety concerns.
1.3 Project Rationale and Financing Modality
11. The Government’s primary objective in the transport sector is to improve the efficiency of international road corridors. It gives high priority to the improvement of A380 highway with the total length of 1,204 km running from Guzar to Dautata for completion by 2014. The highway is the main route between the northwest and southeast of Uzbekistan and serves as an increasingly important international corridor between Afghanistan (via Termez), Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan and Russian Federation. The A380 highway is designated as CAREC Corridors 2 and 6 (overlap with each other in Uzbekistan) and part of Asian Highway, Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia Corridor, and European Highways. The adjoining 84 km Kazakhstan section Aktau–Beyneu is under consideration for by ADB for approval in 2010. The Road Fund has budgeted $1.5 billion for the A380 during 2009–2014. The overall road sector investment plan for construction and reconstruction is in Appendix 1.
12. The pavement condition of the two lane A380 highway has deteriorated because of deferred maintenance and a traffic increase. With the expected growth of local and regional traffic, the reconstruction of this international road is technically justified. Out of about 1,200 km A380 highway, 300 km is completed or being constructed and 900 km will be reconstructed during 2009–2014. ADB’s investment for reconstructing A-380 highway will help the Government accelerate completion of the overall program.
13. The Investment Program will cover about 222 km of the A380 highway in the Karakalpakstan Republic and in Khorezm and Bukhara provinces. Financing will be provided via the MFF through 3 tranches for the Investment Program. The Loan Agreement for the first project (Project 1) of the Investment Program was signed in May 2010 and subsequent projects expected to be signed in first quarter of 2011. ADB signed an agreement with the Government on the financing of the Investment Program in the form of Financing Framework Agreement (FFA) for the MFF and a loan agreement for Tranche 1 in May 2010 and will sign loan agreements for each subsequent tranches.
14. A systematic approach to prioritizing road maintenance interventions and development planning would help the Government better assesses the real need for road maintenance and development. Although ad hoc surveys are undertaken, there is no network condition database for rural and local roads. This is urgently required. Only with comprehensive data can the extent of the maintenance backlog be quantified and a prioritized remedial maintenance program be developed. The enhancement of those practices as necessary and arrange appropriate training to ensure that sector staffs are proficient in their implementation.
15. The role of the Road Fund1 has been expanded since 2006. Revisiting the operations of the Road Fund and examining the effectiveness of the current operating, financing, and quality control procedures would be timely. New road law was adopted in August 2006 which introduced road tolling system providing a legal basis for improving sustainability of road management and operations. Government regulation needs to be issued for the implementation of the tolling system.
1 The Republican Road Fund, established under the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in 2003, is the government agency responsible for road investment planning, project implementation, and financial management of road construction and maintenance, and policy making. IKS GROUP OF COMPANIES 3 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
16. The number of accidents from 2004-2008 is reported at about 11,000 per year and caused an average number of 2,145 fatalities per year. At about 15.4 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles, this rate is very high by developed countries’ standard but low for developing countries. There has been a coordinated effort for improving road safety. The restoration of the pavement on the A 380 is expected to reduce accident frequency.
1.4 The Investment Program
1.4.1 Impact and Outcomes
17. The expected impact of the Investment Program will be sustainable economic development as a result of the expected outcome of better connectivity and an efficient transport system along Uzbekistan section of CAREC Corridor 2 Road.
1.4.2 Output
A. Output of the Investment Program
18. The output of the Investment Program will be (i) about 222 km of reconstructed Uzbekistan section of CAREC Corridor 2 Road, (ii) improved transport logistics, and (iii) improved road sector sustainability.
B. Output of Projects 2 and 3
19. Projects 2 and 3 will have three major components: (i) road development component, (ii) road sector sustainability component and (iii) transport logistics component which is discussed more in Section 3 of this report.
1.5 Other Administrative Matters
20. The Road Fund has assisted the Consultant in the arrangement of meetings with various organizations and assisted a lot to coordinate with state authorities as State Customs Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan and khokimiyats of Khorezm and Bukhara provinces and Karakalpakistan in collecting data on international trade and Dautata border, data on transit traffic and conducting public consultations on environmental and social issues with the various representatives of the local populations as well as conducting social surveys and making census of Displaced Persons. The Uzbekistan Resident Mission of ADB has facilitated the application for visas for International Team Members. The Consultant hereby registers its appreciation for this assistance so graciously given.
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SECTION 2: A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE PROJECT ROAD HINTERLAND, TRAFFIC COUNTS AND FINAL TRAFFIC FORECASTS
2.1 Introduction
21. This brief overview of the economy of Uzbekistan and the area of influence of the roads is being presented for the purposes of preparing final traffic forecasts. It is anticipated that a Loan for Upgrading of the Project 2 and 3 would be negotiated in first quarter of 2011. It is assumed that all rehabilitation and upgrading works would take place starting in 2011 and 2012 with all rehabilitated and upgraded sections being open for traffic in 2015. Benefits are assumed to flow for 25 years after improvement entailing that forecasts of main indicators are carried out to 2039.
2.2 General Background
22. Although rich in resources, Uzbekistan’s distances from markets arising from its doubly landlocked status presented serious challenges to the fledgling nation following the breakup of the Former Soviet Union. Post 1991, GDP initially declined with the GOU following a cautious policy stance that resulted in Uzbekistan experiencing less economic shock than other CIS countries. It was also the first CIS country to exceed its 1991 GDP following independence.
23. Commodity (cotton, gold) and energy exports, and agriculture continue to dominate the economy. The high prices were maintained relatively speaking throughout 2008 and 2009 entailing that Uzbekistan suffered comparatively little during the global downswing of 2008 and 2009. The increasing remittances from Uzbeks working outside the Nation have also contributed to recent growth.
24. Recent high prices of cotton, gold and for energy products have entailed relatively high GDP growth rates in excess of 7 % pa between 2004 and 2009. Recognizing the exposure of the economy to global commodity price volatility, the GOU set up Uzbekistan Reconstruction and Development Fund in 2006 in order to help dampen the impact of external price swings on the economy. Over half of the intended UD$ 1.0 billion commitment to the fund has been made.
25. The Bank’s forecasts of GDP have been accepted as one of the indicators of future economic growth in the Uzbek economy.
2.3 Highlights of Recent Performance of Transport Sector of Uzbekistan
Table 2.1 shows the levels of activity characterizing the transport sector of Uzbekistan in the recent past. Table 2.1 Transport Volumes of Uzbekistan
Item 2006 2007 2008 2009 Goods transportation by type (millions of tonnes, growth 812.8 879.3/109.9 9676.2/100.9 1095.71/113.2 rates in percentage) Railway 50/109.2 58/116 62.9/108.4 65.7/104.5 Motor Transport 689.8/89.1 745.2/108.0 826.8/111.0 976.9/118.2 Air 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Water - - - - Pipeline 73.0/102.8 76.1/104.2 76.4/100.4 53.1/69.5
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Passenger Transport by type (millions of passengers, 4192.4/106 4652.4/111 5260/113.2 5591.2/106.2 percentage) Railway 14.3/94.7 11.5/80.4 13/113.0 14/108.2 4043.6/106. 4507/111.5 5122.4/113.6 5575.7/108.8 Motor Transport 5 Air 1.0/111 1.2/120 1.5/125 1.5/101.0 Source: Uzbek State Statistics committee
2.4 Assumptions as to Progress on Main Economic Indicators
26. In the short term, the Bank is forecasting growth in GDP of 6.5 % in 2010.2 The Consultants have assumed growth rates throughout the first few years of the forecast period. Uzbekistan is uniquely placed with commodities such as chemicals and hydrocarbons likely to be in demand for years to come. Further, the strengthening of the financial sector, an ongoing effort, will reinforce these trends.
27. For purposes of the traffic forecast, the Consultant’s have assumed that GDP growth of 8.4 % will be possible in the shorter term. Rates of growth in passenger traffic are assumed to be driven by a product of population growth and per capita income growth.
28. GDP, population and GDP per capita forecasts at intervals over the forecast period are presented in Table 2.2
Table 2.2 Assumed Population and GDP Per Capita 2010-2033 by Five Year Intervals
GDP per Capita Year GDP (US$ billion) Population (million) (US$) 2010 11.0 27.6 399 2015 14.9 29.2 510 2020 19.2 30.8 622 2025 23.9 32.4 738 2030 29.1 34.1 853 2033 32.7 35.1 987 Note: GDP in constant 2004 prices. Sources: ADO 2007, Dautata 2009 traffic report and Consultant’s estimate.
2.5 Highlights of Accident Spots in A380 Corridor
Table 2.3 shows the location of accident locations along the A380 Corridor.
Table 2.3 Location of Accidents along the A380 Corridor Location of the Type of Road Recommendatio Highest Number of Oblast Accident and n for Road Reason Improvements Accidents 222-226 Increase the 255-256 Inadequate width of width of the 1. Bukhara 319-320 the overpass, overpass, install 216-217 pedestrian sidewalks curbs, construct 2017-208 sidewalks 2-3 Provide lighting, 51-52 Lack of lighting and construct road 2. Kashkadarya 73-74 road curbs curbs, fix other 57-58 deficiencies
2 Asian Development Bank Outlook 2009. IKS GROUP OF COMPANIES 6 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
50-51 482 Construct road 538 curbs of 1st 3. Khorezm 482 Lack of road curbs category, fix other 538 deficiencies 482 Construct road Republic 834-835 curbs of 1st 4. Karakalpakst Lack of road curbs 690-691 category, fix other an deficiencies Source: Ministry of Interior.
2.6 Domestic Transport Demand
29. Income elasticities of demand characterizing the growth of freight traffic in the project area are likely to be significant, at least in the early years of the forecast period. Work in many countries of the world has shown that freight traffic tends to grow at a higher rate then GDP as a country is still moving up the economic chain. For purposes of this forecast, it has been assumed that freight traffic will grow faster than GDP in the early years of the forecast period. As regards passenger traffic, it is allowed to grow at the product of the rate of growth of population times the rate of growth of per capita GDP.
2.7 Factors Influencing International Trade along the Project Road
30. The A380 is classified as a Northwestern Route by Uzavtoyul, leading to Russia, Ukraine and Europe via Kazakhstan. Short to medium growth rates for the trading partners serviced by the Project Road, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia, has indeed been high. High rates of growth are assumed at least during the early years of the forecast period as Kazakhstan and Ukraine become mature economies. The railway parallels the A380 and could provide for some diverted traffic. However, the improvement of the Shymkent-Kyzilorda road, due to take place in the next few years with World Bank and EU assistance, will carry most of this traffic away from the A380 Corridor.
2.8 Domestic and Total Traffic
2.8.1 Background
31. The summary details of the traffic counts and interview programme are given in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4 Summary Details of Traffic Count and OD Interview Programme Site Activity Location Detailed Location Date Staging of Counters, 1 Tashkent to Karshi 14.12.2009 Interviewers Karshi-Bukhara (km 2 OD Interviews Oblast Border 15.12.2009 151) Traffic Counts, OD Bukhara - After 3 Bukhara 16.12.2009 interviews Ghazli City (km 367) Traffic Counts, OD Bukhara – Border (km 4 Khorezm 17.12.2009 interviews 489) Traffic Counts, OD Urgench – 5 Karakalpakstan 18.12.2009 interviews Karakalpakstan Departure from 6 Staging to Nukus 19.12.2009 Nukus to Border Further details of the count and interview activities are given in Appendix 2.
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2.8.2 Traffic Counts
32. Classified traffic counts were carried out over nine hours on various sections of the Project Road away from the influence of towns and cities during December, 2009. International truck trips are identified separately. Expanded flows on the two sections of the Project Road are shown in Table 2.5.
Table 2.5 2009 Traffic Flows on Project Road Sections
Domestic International Section Buses Cars Other Total Trucks Trucks Jandar (A 380 km 367) 74 15 72 736 0 898 Beruni (A 380 km 628) 469 15 271 3250 276 4281 Source: Consultant’s Traffic Count – expanded flows are given.
33. An examination of the traffic count and O/D survey results indicates that the Beruni figure contains a large % of local traffic over all vehicle types which are local in both origin and destination, being dominated by trips between Urgench and Beruni. The traffic counts and O/D matrices show that Jandar figures are more representative of longer distance traffic through the corridor. Similarly, the rail traffic such as that between Urgench and Beyneu is comprised of goods traveling a long way outside Uzbekistan on the rail systems of the Former Soviet Union and, goods which are well suited to rail traffic. Hence, they are utilized in part as the basis of the traffic forecasts. Appendix 2 shows the details of the traffic study methodology.
2.9 International Traffic
34. Table 2.6 shows the tonnage and implied number of loaded and empty trucks passing through the Dautata Customs Post near the Kazakhstan Border between 2005 and 2009. The 2009 data was obtained at year end.
Table 2.6 Truck, Tonnage and Trade Value Flow through Dautata Customs Post Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Trucks per year 2866 2634 3512 4716 4330 Volume of goods/year (tonnes) 28,658 17,783 23,710 13,485 26,102 Value of Goods (US$ million) 50,985 22,154 29,539 21,938 40,892 Trucks per Day 11.9 7.2 9.6 12.9 11.9 Source: Uzbekistan Customs.
35. It can be seen that tonnage through the border post fell between in 2007 and 2008 compared to preceding years, but appears to have recovered according to 2009 data. The number of trucks currently passing the post is in excess of 10 per day. Despite the relatively small proportion of Uzbekistan traffic handled by the Dautata Post, (the Dautata Crossing only handles 0.27 % of total Uzbekistan border traffic) the A-380 is obviously a high quality international route with significant potential traffic on offer.
2.10 Traffic Forecast over the Forecast Horizon
36. Several sources of foreign going traffic have been identified in addition to that passing through the Dautata crossing. Firstly, rail traffic through the Nukus-Oasis Line has been estimated at some 2,776,565 mt per year in 2009. Previous discussions with the Marketing Office of UTY have indicated that small consignments make up about 35 % of tonnage on this line.
37. A second source of diverted traffic for the improved road is the alternative route through Chimkent (Figure 2.1) which is also grouped with the A 380 in the so called Northern IKS GROUP OF COMPANIES 8 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT and Northwestern Routes. Discussions with a leading Uzbekistan trucking firm indicate that using the alternative Northern route is more costly because “informal” fees are levied at six Kazakh oblasts en route to Russia and the Ukraine as compared to two Kazakh oblast boundaries which are passed utilizing the A 380. Additional trucks could arise as a result of diversion.
38. However, despite the potential for diverted traffic, relatively little of it is expected to occur. The alternative road though Chimkent will capture most of the traffic going to Ukraine and Russia, particularly from Tashkent and environs. It is to be reconstructed by the EU and the World Bank over the next few years. In addition, the current rail traffic such as bulk commodities and other bulky items is ideally suited to rail and is very unlikely to transfer to road from rail.
39. Generated traffic has been assumed to total about 20% of the flow of forecast normal domestic traffic once all sections of the A 380 have been rehabilitated by 2014 and is in full operation by 2015. The convention is that the value of generated traffic benefits is valued at half the benefit accruing to existing traffic. Table 2.7 shows the representative traffic forecast for the A380 for selected years over the life of the pavement.
Table 2.7 Representative Final Traffic Forecasts - Average Annual Daily Traffic Year Domestic International Buses Cars Total Total Trucks Trucks (vehicles (passenger per day) car units) 2009 75 15 72 736 898 1,012 2014 111 37 113 1,158 1,420 1,622 2019 167 93 178 1,823 2,261 2,642 2024 250 231 279 2,757 3,617 4,377 2029 373 575 438 4,477 5,864 7,469 2034 559 1,431 686 7,016 9,682 13,252 2039 837 3,561 1,076 10,995 16,469 24,657 Source: Consultant’s estimate.
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Figure 2.1
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SECTION 3: ROAD DEVELOPMENT COMPONENT AND ROAD SUSTAINABILITY COMPONENT
3.1 Road Development Component
40. The Government’s primary objective in the transport sector is to improve the efficiency of international road corridors. It gives high priority to the improvement of A380 highway with the total length of 1,204 km running from Guzar to Dautata for completion by 2014. The highway is the main route between the northwest and southeast of Uzbekistan and serves as an increasingly important international corridor between Afghanistan (via Termez), Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan and Russian Federation. The A380 highway is designated as CAREC Corridors 2 and 6 (overlap with each other in Uzbekistan) and part of Asian Highway, Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia Corridor, and European Highways. The adjoining 84 km Kazakhstan section Aktau–Beyneu is under consideration for by ADB for approval in 2010. The Road Fund has budgeted $1.5 billion for the A380 during 2009–2014.
41. The pavement condition of the 2-lane A380 highway has deteriorated because of deferred maintenance and a traffic increase. With the expected growth of local and regional traffic, the reconstruction of this international road is technically justified. Out of about 1,200 km A380 highway, 300 km is completed or being constructed and 900 km will be reconstructed during 2009–2014. ADB’s investment for reconstructing A-380 highway will help the Government accelerate completion of the overall program.
42. The Investment Program will cover about 222 km of the A380 highway in the Karakalpakstan Republic and in Khorezm and Bukhara provinces. Financing will be provided via the MFF through 3 tranches for the Investment Program. The first project (Project 1) of the Investment Program had already commenced in 2010 and the Loan Agreement had been signed in May 2010. The sections of highway are as follows (Figure 3.1):
(i) Section 1: Km 440–490 (50 km) in Khorezm region. (ii) Section 2: Km 355-440 (85 km) in Bukhara and Khorezm regions. (iii) Section 3: 315-355 (40km) in Bukhara region (iv) Section 4: Km 581-628 (47 km) in Karakalpakistan republic
43. Advisory support for procurement of contractors and recruitment of consultants had been provided under Project 1 and will be provided for Project 2 and 3 as well. An international procurement consultant will work in the program implementation unit (PMU) to strengthen its procurement capability. The contracts with procurement and safeguard team under Tranche 1 will be extended also for Projects 2 and 3 in case of satisfactory performance. Advisory support for project management and construction supervision will also be provided to assist PMU in managing, implementing, and supervising the overall project. The scope, objectives, and TORs of Constructions Supervision and Road Asset Management Support for Projects 2 and 3 shall be developed by PMU.
IKS Group of Companies 11 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
Figure 3.1
IKS GROUP OF COMPANIES 12 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
3.2 Road Sustainability Component of Projects 2 and 3.
44. This component will primarily assist the Government strengthen road sustainability in Uzbekistan through improvement of road sector institutions, the introduction of competition leading to further commercialization of enterprises and eventually privatization, road sector planning, and budgeting system; and provision of road equipment to ensure timely and effective road maintenance program. This component will expand the ongoing work under the road sector sustainability of Loan 2403-UZB: CAREC Regional Road Project. The following subcomponents are envisaged:
(i) Community development program in Project 3. This subcomponent will minimize road externalities on gender and local community and target them as beneficiaries of the road development. Consulting services under this subcomponent will support capacity development for the Road Fund and the local communities living along the Investment Program road. It will also conduct needs assessment for developing the social and healthcare infrastructure and execute the corresponding actions. Proposed activities include the following: (i) Tree Planting – the support of tree planting groups by DP’s to revegetate lost trees along corridors, fence lines and canals. Funding would assist with seedling preparation, planting and maintenance; (ii) Community Road side facilities – small scale support funding for women’s groups to build and maintain (through charges) roadside toilet, water facilities. Areas could also include shaded areas suitable for market stalls to sell produce; a combined canteen/magazine/public toilet/shower/Paynet shop; (iii) Small scale vocational training – particularly for women and the poor – activities would include sewing workshop, hair- cutting, auto-mechanic and a tree nursery (iv) Dedicated community meeting building and shaded area.
(ii) Road asset management support in Project 3. This subcomponent will build upon the current studies and pilot of a road asset management system under Loan 2403-UZB: CAREC Regional Road Project as well as under Project 1 of this Investment Program. Based on the studies and pilot under that project, this subcomponent will support the implementation of a road asset management system, including procurement of necessary support facilities such as computer, software, automatic traffic counting device and related training program. It will also support the (a) establishment of an independent quality control system for road works; (b) development of road maintenance contracts; (c) reform of the road financing system to ensure that charges take into account road usage; (d) establishment of a road maintenance system for cement concrete road; and (e) establishment of a foundation for public-private partnerships (PPP) in the road sector and pilot of a PPP project if feasible.
(iii) Provision of Road Equipment in Project 2. The Project will finance the procurement of a set of road equipment to be managed by a Road Equipment Pool Company (REPC) “Transyulqurilish” that was established under Loan 2403-UZB: CAREC Regional Road Project. The company was set up as an independent commercially-operated state-owned enterprise. Under Loan 2403-UZB: CAREC Regional Road Project, the cost estimate of Boring equipment was underestimated and this equipment was not procured.
3.3 Transport Logistics Component, Project 3
45. This component will primarily assist the Government strengthen road sustainability in Uzbekistan through procurement of cross-border facility equipment. Considering huge investment had been committed to this road, the smooth passage of international trucks have to be ensured on the road and the cross border facility that will be procured under this component will ensure that overall objectives of the road are achieved.
IKS GROUP OF COMPANIES 13 TASHKENT,SEPTEMBER 2010 TA 7375-UZB: CAREC CORRIDOR 2ROAD INVESTMENT PROGRAM FINAL REPORT
SECTION 4: PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND COST OF ROAD RECONSTRUCTION FOR PROJECT 2 AND 3
4.1 Characteristics of the selected Sections of the Road
46. The length of public roads in the project area is 10442km (25% of the total length of the public road network), including 4002 km in Bukhara region; 2265km km in Horezm region and, 4175km in Karakalpakstan. Classification of road network is given in Table 4.1.
Table 4.1 Bukhara Khorezm Republic of Classification of common use region region Karakalpakstan public roads Length Length Length km % km % km % International 496 12,4 113 5 664 15,9 National 1482 37 895 39,5 1004 24 Local 2024 50,6 1257 55,5 2507 60,1 Total 4002 2265 4175
47. Public roads of common use going through the regions and having international importance are shown in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Name of road Region Length, km