Department of Primary Industries Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria Report: 51 September 22, 2005 Environmental Indicators Rainfall August rainfall totals were close to normal. Over winter as a whole, rainfall was somewhat above normal in the North East and in East Gippsland, somewhat below normal in Central Victoria and in West Gippsland, and near to normal elsewhere. August had a warm spell at the end of the month following the widespread snow on the 10th. Overall daytime temperatures were 1°C above average and nightime temperatures were about average. For the 6-month period from March to August, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies extend from the far southeast of South Australia across southwest and south-central Victoria to west Gippsland. The deficiencies over southern Victoria are not as extensive or intense as they were at the end of July. The most significant rainfall in September occurred through the second week and varied from 0-5 mm in the north west to over 100 mm in pockets of the North East (Figure 1). The seasonal rainfall outlook for October to December indicates an increased likelihood of below median falls over parts of southern Victoria for the December quarter. Chances of above median rainfall are between 30 and 40% in a band extending from the far southeast of South Australia to West Gippsland. This includes most of the areas that have suffered severe short-term rainfall deficiencies since the start of autumn, and a general downturn in rainfall since the mid 1990s. The chances of a wetter than average season are between 40 and 50% over the rest of the State. There is a strong chance (70-80%) of above average maximum temperatures across Victoria. Figure 1. Victorian rainfall percentages 1st to 21st September 2005 Percentage of monthly mean (1961 – 1990 base period) National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology DSC Report 1 There was a moderate fall in the Southern Oscillation Index from +1 in July to −7 in August. Most international climate prediction models, including the POAMA climate model run at the Bureau of Meteorology, clearly favour neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the remainder of 2005. Water storages Good rainfall in the North East in August contributed to a significant increase in streamflows east of Bendigo, except for the coastal areas of Gippsland. Some streams were running at 3-6 times the monthly average and the Macalister was at 12 times the monthly average. However, streamflows in the west of the state have continued to be low with many streams remaining at 15% or less than the long-term average flow. Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) On September 15th G-MW updated irrigation allocations for Goulburn to 74% (up from 63%), Loddon 54% (up from 33%), and Campaspe has finally been allocated 2% of water right (up from zero). Now that Campaspe has enough water to cover system losses, all further inflows should be allocated to irrigators. Murray remains at 100%, Broken remains at 170% and Bullarook Creek remains at 148%. North Central Coliban Water announced an investment plan to secure Bendigo’s water supply without removing water from irrigators. Coliban Water has an 18% share of the water in Lake Eppalock that is currently at just 9% capacity. Campaspe irrigators who share this water had previously expressed concern about the potential for Coliban Water to buy irrigation water at prices that would restrict the competitiveness of agriculture. Water recycling will be a major part of the plan including 800ML of recycled water for Harcourt irrigators. Under a separate plan the Campaspe and Loddon Rivers will undergo restoration as part of the 5-year North Central River Health Strategy announced by Minister Thwaites on September 14th. Wimmera-Mallee Grampians Wimmera Mallee Water announced that the 2005/06 summer dam fill allocation will be set at one dam per 400 ha and will be brought forward to November-December 2005 to reduce evaporation losses. The region is facing an unprecedented water supply situation with very low inflows expected for the remainder of this season. Storages are currently at 9% or 68,000 ML that is the lowest for September since the 1960’s. At this stage, there is no water available for the 2006 winter domestic and stock dam fill run unless there are good inflows next winter-spring. Property owners may need to make their current water supplies last for up to 15 months or longer. Inflows to the Wimmera Glenelg system since November 2004 have been 36,000 ML, compared to an average of 124,000 ML. Southern Rural Water (SRW) On August 25th SRW announced an increase in allocations for the Werribee and Bacchus Marsh Irrigation Districts to 60% (up from the opening allocation of 55%). On September 1st SRW announced that Lake Glenmaggie was full and spilling. The irrigation allocation for Macalister was increased to 100% (up from 80% on August 23rd) and irrigators can currently use a spill entitlement that is not included in that 100%. The lake has spilled a month earlier than last year. Storage Change in Capacity Storage Change in Capacity last 4 weeks 19/9/05 last 4 weeks 19/9/05 Goulburn Basin 11% 47% Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin 6% 60% Broken Basin 12% 49% Werribee Basin 2% 35% Campaspe Basin 3% 15% Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin 0% 9% Loddon Basin 5% 34% Maribyrnong 1% 15% Upper Murray Basin 12% 63% Barwon Storage 7% 62% Ovens Basin 3% 80% Source: The Weekly Times, Stock and Land, Barwon Water DSE report Good rains in recent weeks in East Gippsland have started to replenish water in coastal wetlands, however, those not on major streams have still not returned to pre-drought levels - indicative of accumulated soil moisture deficit. DSC Report 2 Fire There have been 20 small fires so far in the 2005-06 fire season. Soil moisture deficits indicate significantly dry areas in the far west, part of the central parts of the state and central Gippsland. Social Indicators DPI Drought Hotline The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 102 drought related contacts for the period 23rd August to 19th September 2005. Eight-five were completed by FAQ, three had information sent, eight were referred and six transferred. Queries included Exceptional Circumstances (96), Drought feeding of cattle and sheep (1), Carted water rebate (1), Rural Counsellors (1), DHS – Drought recovery program (1), Horticulture (1) and Drought Preparation and Survival Guide (1). Queries came from all regions; North West (39), North East (22), South West (17), Gippsland (13) and Port Philip (6). Drought financial assistance Rural Finance Corporation reports 3,051 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Subsidy have been received to date with 2,306 approved and 501 declined so far. Total value of the subsidies approved is $43,050,290 with an average of $18,596. On September 16th the Central and East Gippsland Exceptional Circumstances areas were extended for a third year of support. More farmers are likely to be eligible for support since both the income and asset thresholds were increased last May. Farmers who are eligible for income support from Centrelink will also be eligible for the state government’s 50% Municipal Rate Subsidy. NSW farmers in the Bourke and Brewarrina Exceptional Circumstances (EC) area facing the expiration of their third and final year of support have had their relief payments extended for eight weeks. The federal government is currently considering the most appropriate long-term way of dealing with many the drought-affected areas coming to the end of their three years of support. Department of Human Services (DHS) report The State Community Support Committee – Drought recently decided to take their meetings to rural areas of Victoria where they could hear directly from farmers and other community representatives about their local issues and how local community recovery activities have been working. As a Whole of Government committee, the committee is able to address issues regarding access to drought support services and ensure information is effectively distributed. On September 13th, the committee met in Rochester. Representatives from Campaspe Shire and Swan Hill Rural City presented information on local issues and drought recovery activities. Before the meeting, local farmers talked to DHS representatives about the technical and personal difficulties they have been facing during the drought. On August 2nd, the Committee met in Greater Shepparton. Representatives from the Shire of Moira and the City of Greater Shepparton attended the meeting and made presentations to the committee. The committee plans to hold its next meeting in the Wimmera region on 25 October 2005. Rural Financial Counselling report The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey for the September 2005 quarter has shown a sharp rebound in farmer confidence to its highest level in more than two years. Sentiment is strongest in Victoria where confidence is at its highest level in four years. The survey shows 50% of Victorian primary producers expect the agricultural economy to improve in the next 12 months (up from 37% last quarter), while 12% expect conditions to worsen (down from 23%). The improvement in confidence had been underpinned by the favourable conditions (strong international dairy prices and good prospects for pasture growth in spring) among the state's dairy producers. Sentiment is weakest among the state's wool producers due to the negative price environment. The main concerns for those expecting the agricultural economy to worsen were lower commodity prices (48%), and higher input costs (31%). Concern about seasonal conditions has declined since the last quarter (22%, down from 40%). DSC Report 3 Economic Indicators Commodity prices and movements Most commodity prices have remained fairly stable in the last month.