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Public Transport Connectivity Analysis

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Public Transport Connectivity Analysis Gallions Reach and Belvedere River Crossings Public Transport Connectivity Analysis Date: November 2015 Version: Final 2 CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 5 Context ............................................................................................................................. 5 Scope of this report ........................................................................................................... 5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 9 Background ........................................................................................................................ 9 Scope of this report ........................................................................................................... 9 2. Methodology and assumptions ........................................................................ 10 Background ...................................................................................................................... 10 Railplan model ................................................................................................................. 10 Connectivity measures ..................................................................................................... 11 Definition of options ........................................................................................................ 13 3. Illustrative journey time changes ..................................................................... 17 Travel time mapping ........................................................................................................ 18 4. Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTALs) ..................................................... 20 Background ...................................................................................................................... 20 2031 Reference Case ....................................................................................................... 20 Cross-river bus network changes ..................................................................................... 21 Gallions Reach local options ............................................................................................ 22 Belvedere local options ................................................................................................... 26 Gallions Reach strategic options ...................................................................................... 27 5. Catchment analysis - Access to jobs ................................................................ 28 Background ...................................................................................................................... 28 2031 Reference Case ....................................................................................................... 28 Cross-river bus network changes ..................................................................................... 28 Gallions Reach local options ............................................................................................ 31 Belvedere local options ................................................................................................... 36 Gallions Reach strategic options ...................................................................................... 37 6. Catchment analysis - Access to the labour market .............................................. 40 Background ...................................................................................................................... 40 2031 Reference Case ....................................................................................................... 40 Cross-river bus network changes ..................................................................................... 41 Gallions Reach local options ............................................................................................ 43 Belvedere local options ................................................................................................... 47 Gallions Reach strategic options ...................................................................................... 48 3 7. Thamesmead Travel Options Pie Analysis .......................................................... 52 Background ...................................................................................................................... 52 2031 Reference Case ....................................................................................................... 52 Cross-river bus network changes ..................................................................................... 53 Gallions Reach local options ............................................................................................ 55 Belvedere local options ................................................................................................... 58 Gallions Reach strategic options ...................................................................................... 59 8. Public transport demand (fixed demand matrices) ............................................... 62 Background ...................................................................................................................... 62 Cross-river bus network changes ..................................................................................... 62 Gallions Reach local options ............................................................................................ 63 Belvedere local options ................................................................................................... 65 Gallions Reach strategic options ...................................................................................... 65 9. Additional analysis ........................................................................................ 68 Initial conclusions and further analysis ............................................................................. 68 Alternative DLR service pattern (DLR 1a) .......................................................................... 72 Trips and mode share (variable demand matrices) ............................................................ 74 Trip distribution (variable demand matrices) ..................................................................... 77 Estimates of public transport demand (variable demand matrices) ................................... 79 Public transport crowding (variable demand matrices) ...................................................... 81 10. Conclusion .................................................................................................. 85 Appendix A: Public transport forecasting and appraisal assumptions Appendix B: Thamesmead-Woolwich tram test 4 Executive Summary Context 1. Transport for London (TfL) is proposing a programme of river crossings that seeks to improve the ability of people and goods to cross the River Thames in London. Its focus is on the continued enhancement of the transport network, both in response to the enormous changes which have taken place in London over the last two to three decades, and as a means of supporting the significant further growth that is forecast. 2. The Strategic Case sets out the project objectives for river crossings east of the proposed Silvertown Tunnel. The three key objectives are: To support population and employment growth; To improve cross-river connectivity; and To improve the resilience of cross-river transport links. Scope of this report 3. The development and appraisal of options is an iterative process. The first phase of the option selection process was reported in the Option Assessment Report (Long List), which covers all the long list options considered, including highway, public transport and walking and cycling options and reduces the number of options to be taken forward for more detailed assessment to an interim list. 4. The second phase of the option selection process is captured in the Option Assessment Report (Public Transport Interim List), which includes a summary of the public transport impacts of the options. 5. The role of this report is to set out the impacts of the alternative public transport infrastructure options and the findings to feed into the Option Assessment Report (Public Transport Interim List). Conclusions 6. Buses would form the Do-Minimum public transport provision expected to be included with any proposed crossing package. All other fixed public transport options will be assessed relative to this scenario. Gallions Reach local options 7. The provision of a short DLR extension from Gallions Reach to Thamesmead (DLR 1) represents a scheme that could be delivered as part of the Gallions Reach crossing and that provides a very significant localised boost in connectivity to Thamesmead West and North. With the introduction of DLR 1 these areas have access to 150-200 thousand jobs within 75 minutes generalised time, putting them on a par with nearby residential areas such as Plumstead and East Ham. 8. DLR 1 would offer significant development opportunities. Thamesmead town centre would be transformed into a PTAL 4 transport hub, with the potential for significant mixed use and medium-density residential development (6-7,000
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