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Foreign Competition and Disintermediation: No Threat to the German Banking System?

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Foreign Competition and Disintermediation: No Threat to the German Banking System? Kiel Institute of World Economics Düsternbrooker Weg 120, D–24105 Kiel Kiel Working Paper No. 960 Foreign Competition and Disintermediation: No Threat to the German Banking System? by Claudia M. Buch and Stefan M. Golder December 1999 The authors themselves, not the Kiel Institute of World Economics, are respon- sible for the contents and distribution of Kiel Working Papers. Since the series involves manuscripts in a preliminary form, interested readers are requested to direct criticisms and suggestions directly to the authors and to clear quotations with them. – 2 – Dr. Claudia M. Buch Dr. Stefan M. Golder Kiel Institute of World Economics Düsternbrooker Weg 120 D – 24105 Kiel Phone: +49 431 8814-332 or -470 Fax: +49 431 85853 E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected] Abstract* The German financial system is characterized by lower degrees of penetration by foreign commercial banks and of (bank) disintermedation than, for instance, that of the United States. These differences between the two countries could be attributed to the fact that universal banking in Germany creates implicit barriers to entry. Yet, regulatory and informational differences which are unrelated to universal banking could be responsible for the observed difference as well. This paper provides a stylized theoretical model of the banking industry, which suggests that market segmentation and limited market entry can be due to a number of factors, including information costs. Preliminary empirical evidence does not provide clear evidence for the hypothesis that universal banking is the reason for the observed differences in financial systems. (124 words) Keywords: Competition in banking, universal banking, information costs, Germany, United States JEL-classification: G21, G14 _______ * The authors would like to thank Ralph P. Heinrich and Jörn Kleinert for most helpful comments on an earlier draft. Remaining errors and inaccuracies are solely in our own responsibility. – 3 – Table of Contents 1 Motivation...................................................................................................... 4 2 Universal Banking, Foreign Competition, and Disintermediation..................... 6 2.1 Foreign Competition and Banking........................................................... 6 2.2 Universal Banking and Disintermediation.............................................. 11 2.3 Implications .......................................................................................... 14 3 Changing Financial Structures of Households and Firms: Germany versus the US ................................................................................ 15 3.1 Financial Assets of Households............................................................. 16 3.2 Financing Sources of Firms................................................................... 18 4 Activities of Foreign Banks........................................................................... 20 4.1 Market Shares of Foreign Banks ........................................................... 21 4.2 Balance Sheet Adjustments of Commercial Banks ................................ 23 4.3 Lending Behavior of Domestic and Foreign Banks................................ 26 4.3.1 Previous Empirical Evidence..................................................... 26 4.3.2 Estimation Approach and Results.............................................. 27 5 Concluding Remarks..................................................................................... 32 References........................................................................................................ 34 Appendix.......................................................................................................... 39 – 4 – 1 Motivation The German banking system is one of the prototypes of universal banking structures. German banks can hold equity stakes in non-financial firms, German bankers sit on the boards of large enterprises, and banks cast proxy votes on behalf of their clients. At the same time, the German banking sector is characterized by comparatively low market shares of foreign commercial banks, and financial intermediation has not yet significantly shifted away from banks. This is despite the relatively large degree of openness of the German financial system and the global trend towards disintermediation, which is, in turn, driven by deregulation and technological change. At first sight, these stylized facts seem to support the view that universal banking creates implicit entry barriers and thus constrains the contestability of markets (Rajan 1998, Boot and Thakor 1997). Having acquired insider information on their clients through long-term banking relationships, universal banks enjoy a certain degree of monopoly power, which gives them a competitive advantage over new market entrants. Aoki and Dinç (1997), in fact, argue that competition from alternative sources of financing, such as the bond market, is likely to strengthen relational financing characteristics of universal banking systems. The issue is thus whether the observed features of the German banking system are due to the presence of universal banks or whether alternative explanations can be found. The literature so far has provided some possible explanations for structural changes on financial markets in Germany. Results of Borio (1995) and Calomiris (1995) suggest that deregulation since the early 1990s has led to a process of securitization. Still, Allen and Gale (1995) argue that German capital markets remain much less developed as compared to the US. Dziobek and Garrett (1998) argue that the underdevelopment of markets in Germany is mainly the result of the existing universal banking structure rather than a reflection of customer preferences. Domanski (1997) and Schmidt et al. (1998) show that there is no clear trend towards disintermediation, towards the transformation to a market- based financial system, or towards a significant loss in importance of banks. Another strand of the literature has been concerned with the role of German banks in the corporate governance of firms. Edwards and Fischer (1994) conclude that banks in Germany possess only minor governance power in companies, that relationship-banking creates only little information advantages, – 5 – and that relations between banks and non-financial firms in the loan market are characterized by substantial competition. This would suggest that small market shares of foreign banks would have to be explained by factors other than close customer contacts of the incumbents. Yet, other studies have found evidence for a more positive role of commercial banks in the governance of firms and for relationship lending (Elsas and Krahnen 1998, Harhoff and Körting 1997, Gorton and Schmid 1996, Schmid 1996).2 However, it is not necessarily clear that relationship lending is a specific feature of large (universal) banks. A recent study by Kueppers (1999) rather suggests that savings banks and credit co-operatives also engage in relationship lending. Despite the large amount of research on the German financial system, issues related to the competition between bank financing and alternative sources of financing, the competition between domestic and foreign banks, as well as the determinants of foreign banks' activities in Germany have received only little attention in the literature. The purpose of this paper is thus to provide evidence on the impact of deregulation, disintermediation, and foreign competition on the German banking system. We start by giving an overview of the theoretical literature and derive testable implications (Section 2). Section 3 presents stylized facts for the German financial system with regard to the disintermediation process. Evidence from the United States is given as a benchmark. Section 4 provides evidence on the market shares of foreign banks in Germany and in the US, in particular with regard to the determinants of credit supply of domestic versus foreign banks. Section 5 concludes. As regards the contestability of banking markets, we obtain different results for different segments of the German banking system. Whereas universal banking seems not to have impeded market access into investment banking, the retail market is dominated by domestic financial institutions, mainly savings and cooperative banks. As these banks do not hold equity stakes in non-financial firms, universal banking per se cannot serve as an explanation for this dominance of domestic banks. Rather, differences in information costs between domestic and foreign banks provide an alternative explanation. Also, savings banks have access to relatively low-cost funds and therefore hold a comparative advantage over competitors. _______ 2 For a review of the literature see Brichs-Serra et al. (1997). – 6 – 2 Universal Banking, Foreign Competition, and Disintermediation This section summarizes theoretical contributions which help us to gauge the likely effects of deregulation and of the on-going process of disintermediation on (universal) banking systems. Hereby, we interpret deregulation as the abolition of regulatory restrictions to the provision of certain financial services as well as to the entry of foreign financial institutions. Disintermediation, in contrast, is considered as a process driven mainly by changes in preferences and in technology. This process is, however, not exogenous, as deregulation through its impact on the variety and on the prices of financial services is likely to foster changes in preferences
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