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Methods for Risk Assessment Within the Framework of Sustainable Development

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Methods for Risk Assessment Within the Framework of Sustainable Development Methods for Risk Assessment within the framework of Sustainable Development Ronald Wennersten Jan Fidler TRITA-IM 2007:34 ISSN: 1402-7615 Department of Industrial Ecology School of Industrial Engineering and Management Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) KTH, 100 44 Stockholm www.ima.kth.se Acknowledgements This project has been a part of the EU INTERREG IIIB project COASTMAN with partners from Sweden, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia and Finland. All partners have worked with case studies in their respective country. We want to thank all these partners for many fruitful discussions. The Swedish case study has been partly financed by the INTERREG IIIB program and partly by The Swedish Rescue Services Agency (SRSA). Financing has also been received from the PREEM Environmental Foundation. The project has been a cooperation with many actors in the City of Stockholm without whom the project would not have been possible. We also want to thank Birgitta Widén at SRSA for many fruitful discussions as well as our reference group with Prof. Thedéen Torbjörn and Dr. Madeleine Hayenhjelm at KTH. Valuable contributions in the project have also come from the master thesis students Åsa Larsson, Ausra Juneviciute, Insa Ostendorf and Jurate Skarzauskaite. The photo (Åsa Larsson) on the cover of the report shows the Loudden oil port and it´s surroundings the Eco Park (Nationalstadsparken) and the busy ferry terminals. All photos in the report are taken by Åsa Larsson, Ronald Wennersten, Jan Fidler. Abstract In a democracy we have to accept that decision processes are participatory in the way that they involve many stakeholders in the decision, not only experts. This is important because most of the decisions cannot only be based on facts but also values have to be included. It is thus important to have transparent information around the consequences of different alternatives and the concept of risk is here one of the most difficult concepts to evaluate. This project has focused on a case study around the location of Loudden oil terminal in the central part of Stockholm. This case study was chosen because of its complexity regarding the decision-making process and stakeholder interests and because risk is an important parameter in the decision of the location of the oil harbour. The case study shows that land use planning is a delicate trade off between economic and social development and protection of environment and between the interests of different stakeholders. This planning process requires that information around risks of different types can be evaluated and presented in a transparent way for all the stakeholders involved. Risk is only one parameter among many in the decision process, but it is often an important one and one which is difficult to grasp. One of the experiences in the project is that many of the stakeholders including politicians and the public, taking part in the planning processes have a consequence based approach more than a risk-based approach. This means that they do not take the low probabilities for mayor accidents into account but merely focus on possible worst case scenarios and if those can be handled. The safety reports for the installations however have a much more risk-based approach relying on different methods for estimating probabilities for accident scenarios. This makes it very difficult to communicate and agree upon the results from these safety reports which are actually the basis for decisions around the acceptance of the installations. Parts of the existing legislation also includes demand for estimation of probabilities or frequencies for accidents, but no recommendations how to calculate it. In connection to this there are also proposals to use acceptance criteria e.g. societal risk and individual risk in order to facilitate evaluation both for the companies and for the authorities. This project shows that this development is very doubtful because of the inherent large uncertainties in the estimation and also because of the problem to communicate the results in participatory decision processes. As a result of this project we therefore argue that there should be a more consequence based approach for accidents and worst case scenarios in the safety reports where ‘real’ worst case scenarios are described. These can then be communicated to the stakeholders and also to the rescue service in order to decide if these worst case scenarios can be handled in a proper way and also how the risk can be reduced by robust barriers and emergency actions. The report should also include an extended summary which in a transparent way can communicate the results to all involved stakeholders. There should also be an overview of major accidents which have occurred internationally at similar installations. From this project the recommendation for further research is that more detailed examples of guidelines for how to develop more consequence based approach for accidents and worst case scenarios should be developed both for industrial sites and transport of dangerous substances. These developed examples should then be discussed among a wide stakeholder group. The result from the training package shows that this type of training course where different stakeholders have to argue from different standpoints is very valuable in order to widen the horizons and understanding different views on the concept of risk. There is not one objective way to evaluate risk, but many depending on values and preferences. Sammanfattning I en demokrati måste vi acceptera att beslutsprocesser involverar många intressenter inte bara experter. Det är också viktigt att förstå att de flesta beslut inte bara baseras på fakta utan också på olika typer av värderingar Av detta skäl är det väsentligt att alla har tillgång till transparent information om vilka konsekvenser olika beslut kan leda till. Begreppet risk är här ett av de svåraste att hantera på ett transparent och begripligt sätt. Detta projekt har fokuserat på en fallstudie rörande alternativa placeringar av oljehamnen på Loudden i centrala Stockholm. Fallstudien valdes eftersom beslutsprocessen är komplex och att risk är en viktig parameter. Studien visar att fysisk planering är en känslig balansakt där hänsyn till ekonomiska, sociala och miljömässiga såväl som motstridiga intressen måste hanteras. Planeringsprocessen kräver att risker med olika alternativ kan utvärderas och beskrivas så att alla intressenter förstår. Risk är bara en parameter, men en viktig sådan i beslutsprocessen. En av erfarenheterna från projektet är att många intressenter inbegripet politiker och allmänhet har ett uttalat konsekvensbaserat sätt att värdera risker. Detta betyder att man oroar sig främst för stora konsekvenser av olyckor och att man tar mindre hänsyn till att sannolikheten för olyckan kan vara liten. De säkerhetsrapporter som tas fram av företagen för olika installationer är däremot huvudsakligen riskbaserade där man tar hänsyn bara till olycksscenarier som inte har extremt låg sannolikhet. Detta leder till svårigheter då man skall besluta om huruvida dessa installationer skall vara tillåtna. Delar av gällande föreskrifter kräver också att man uppskattar sannolikheter eller frekvenser av identifierade olycksscenarier, men inga klara direktiv för hur dessa skall beräknas. I anslutning till detta så används också kriterier för att värdera risken som t ex samhällsrisk och individrisk, som anses kunna underlätta utvärderingen. I det här projektet drar vi slutsatsen att denna utveckling är mycket tveksam beroende på de stora osäkerheter som finns i beräkningen av sannolikheter och frekvenser, samt också på grund av svårigheten att kommunicera resultaten till olika intressenter. Som ett resultat så anser vi att säkerhetsrapporterna bör bygga mer på en konsekvensbaserad riskvärdering där de största konsekvenserna som en olycka kan leda till beskrivs. Dessa är lättare att kommunicera till politiker, allmänhet och även till räddningstjänsten. Scenarierna utgör sedan en bas för en diskussion om olyckorna kan hanteras med hjälp av robusta barriärer och nödlägesplaner. I anslutning till detta bör mer arbete också läggas på att skriva en utvidgad sammanfattning av rapporten så att innehållet kan kommuniceras på ett transpartent sätt till berörda intressenter. Säkerhetsrapporten bör också innehålla en beskrivning av betydande olyckor som inträffat internationellt på liknande installationer. Med utgångspunkt från resultaten i projekten rekommenderar vi ytterligare studier för att ta fram rekommendationer för hur mer konsekvensbaserade scenarier kan utvecklas för olika typer av verksamheter såsom industrianläggningar och farligtgodstransporter. Dessa förslag kan sedan diskuteras i bredare intressentgrupper. Ett annat resultat från projektet är att utbildningar kan utformas så att de befordrar en ökad förståelse för hur olika intressenter värderar risker. Det finns inte en objektiv risk som kan beräknas med ingenjörsmässiga metoder och utvärderas mot fasta kriterier. Riskvärdering är i mångt och mycket en subjektiv process som måste hanteras på ett demokratiskt sätt. Abbreviations BSR Baltic Sea Region CAA Clean Air Act COASTMAN Acronym for the INTEREG IIIB project Coastal Zone Management in the BSR COMAH Control of Major Accident Hazards CZ Coastal Zone CZM Coastal Zone Management DPSIR Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response ECHA European Chemicals Agency EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPA Environmental Protection Agency ICZM Integrated CZM IMO International Maritime Organisation HSE Health
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