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Identification and Visualization of Areas Vulnerable to Intense Rainfall in Nacka Municipality

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Identification and Visualization of Areas Vulnerable to Intense Rainfall in Nacka Municipality Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Identification and visualization of areas vulnerable to intense rainfall in Nacka Municipality Anuja Joshi Master’s thesis NKA 83 Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, 30 Credits 2013 Preface This Master’s thesis is Anuja Joshi’s degree project in Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. The Master’s thesis comprises 30 credits (one term of full-time studies). Supervisors have been Göran Alm and Helle Skånes at the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. Examiner has been Andrew Frampton at the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. The author is responsible for the contents of this thesis. Stockholm, 12 June 2013 Lars-Ove Westerberg Director of studies Abstract This study presents areas in Nacka municipality that are potentially vulnerable to extreme rainfall events. GIS based methods have been used to identify and visualize these areas. Initially, topographic depressions were identified using a new method developed as part of this study. Within these depressions inundation can potentially take place, particularly in case outlets from these areas in the form of surface channels, pipes and sinks are being blocked by for instance vegetation debris, sediments or snow and ice. A risk map was produced showing areas in Nacka within which inundation might occur during extreme rainfall events. These potential inundated risk areas have been identified on the basis of multi-criteria of depressions, hard surfaces, slope steepness and soil conditions. The identified risk areas will be useful in order to find public and private infrastructure or assets that might get damaged during extreme rainfall events, and for hazard preparedness. Furthermore, calculations on how much the lake levels would rise in four of Nacka’s lakes during an extreme rainfall event were calculated. Based on the lake level rise, areas around the lake that would become inundated were identified and visualized. These results can be useful for urban planning purposes. i ii Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................... i List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. v 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Aim and Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Background ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1. Impact and consequences from climate change ....................................................................... 1 1.2.2. Surface water discharge ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 Lake outlets and their susceptibility to blockages. .................................................................... 4 2. Study Area ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Geographical history of Boo ......................................................................................................... 6 2.2. Target lakes in the Boo area ......................................................................................................... 8 3. Method .............................................................................................................................................. 10 3.1. Overall approach of processing data in ArcGIS for determining the potential risk area ........... 12 3.2. Calculating lake inundation ........................................................................................................ 13 3.3. Calculating topographical depressions ....................................................................................... 16 3.4. Calculating potential risk area .................................................................................................... 17 4. Results and discussion ....................................................................................................................... 18 4.1. Karbosjön .................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2. Myrsjön ....................................................................................................................................... 21 4.3. Insjön .......................................................................................................................................... 22 4.4. Sågsjön ........................................................................................................................................ 23 4.5. Topographic depression in Nacka municipality .......................................................................... 24 4.6. Potential Risk areas for inundation during extreme rainfall events. ......................................... 26 4.7. Scope of Errors ........................................................................................................................... 28 7. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 28 8. Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... 30 9. References ......................................................................................................................................... 31 10. Appendices ...................................................................................................................................... 33 iii List of Figures Figure 1: The inundation of roads and houses nearby Karbosjön in Kummelnäs, Nacka in November 2012 resulted in newspaper headlines in the local press (Nacka Värmdo Posten, 2012) ....................... 4 Figure 2: Drainage pipe partly blocked by sediments and organic debris in Nacka municipality ................ 5 Figure 3: Study Area in Nacka municipality for determining the potential risk area during heavy rainfall . 6 Figure 4: Daily rainfall data from Gustavberg station for 41yr provided by SMHI. .................................... 12 Figure 5: Flow chart describing the overall method used for determining the potential risk area during heavy rainfall. ................................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 6: Flow diagram on the steps undertaken to identify potential areas for inundation in the vicinity of the lakes studied ....................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 7: DEM slicing with 0.05 m for determination of the increase in lake level during heavy rainfall. 15 Figure 8: Topographic Depression with the threshold elevation showing true value 1 and false value 0 from describing from elevation above and below. ....................................................................... 17 Figure 9 a and b: Areas of potential risk for inundation in Karbosjön catchment. Figure 9a display the entire catchment and 9b display a close up of the lake and the areas most prone to inundation. Vikingshillsvägen is the shown in figure 9b touching many of the potential inundation areas. House plots and buildings are shown in Figure 19b. ..................................................................... 20 Figure 10: Inundation southeast of Vikingshillsvägen, upstream of Karbosjön, may cause severe damage to the road (Source: Nacka kommun). .......................................................................................... 20 Figure 11a and b: Areas of potential risk for inundation in Myrsjön catchment. Fig 11a display the entire catchment and 11b display a close up of the lake and the areas most prone to inundation. The DEM of the catchment is shown in a and in b house plots an buildings are shown. .................... 21 Figure 12: Inundation of gardens in Kummelnäs, Nacka (Source: Nacka kommun). ................................. 22 Figure 13 a and b: Areas of potential risk for inundation in Insjön catchment. Fig 13a display the entire catchment and 13b display a close up of the lake and the areas most prone to inundation. The DEM of the catchment is shown in a and in b house plots an buildings are shown. .................... 23 Figure 14 a and b: Areas of potential risk for inundation in Sågsjön catchment. Fig 14 a display the entire catchment and 14b display a close up of the lake and the areas most prone to inundation. The DEM of the catchment is shown in a and in b house plots an buildings are shown. .................... 24 Figure 15: Topographic depression area in Nacka municipality where the area shaded determined the depression area. ...........................................................................................................................
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